Connect with us

Business and Finance

Markets will overreact to headlines

Published

on

As the saying goes, “There are lies, damn lies and statistics.”

And on the primary Friday of each month, the American public receives a wealth of latest statistics to view. Then US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the newest employment data. Within minutes of receiving the information, news organizations send push notifications, experts start voicing their opinions, and the headlines – and headline numbers – coalesce into a straightforward narrative, often along the lines of: “The work is done; the economy was saved” or “Employment dropped; we are all lost.”

These narratives consistently influence investors and financial markets.

How professor of finance, I feel these easy stories will not be helpful for investors. In fact, they’re harmful. The initial narratives remain unchanged, even when the underlying statistics contradict the numbers that make headlines. Therefore, on June 7, 2024 when the newest employment data will be releasedI predict that financial markets will overreact to headlines.

I get it: there’s a lot information within the two job reports released every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics which you can pick and select which data you think that is significant. But ignoring the nuances is just not a great investment strategy. It seems that the economic reality is just too complex to fit right into a headline. As evidence, consider how markets have reacted to the last two months of employment data.

Dive deeper into the information

Lets start with Data on job offers in Aprilwhich was released on May 3.

The headline numbers were worse than expected: the unemployment rate checked to 3.9% from 3.8% within the previous month, with each non-farm and personal sector employment lower than expected.

stock Exchange united over this seemingly bad news because it viewed the disappointing jobs reports as an indication of a possible slowdown in inflation. This, in turn, could encourage the Federal Reserve to implement rate of interest cuts are back on the table for 2024 – or at the least that is what investors were counting on.

But if you dig deeper into the information, the situation becomes a bit more complex.

The unemployment rate actually got worse, rising by a tenth of a percentage point, virtually unchanged labor force participation rate. On the surface it doesn’t look too good: it looks just like the unemployment rate has increased by approx 10 basis points. This is since the bureau only calculates the unemployment rate to one decimal place. But what for those who go to two decimal places?

To do that, you wish to crunch some numbers yourself.

You can do that by going to the office Current press release regarding employment statistics, navigating through the assorted rows and columns, after which running the calculator to calculate the number for the month to one decimal place from what’s reported within the media. Then repeat the method for the last month’s data.

When you do that, you may see that the unemployment rate barely budged in April: it rose from 3.83% in March to 3.86%, a rise of just 0.03%, or 3 basis points. This suggests that the seemingly disappointing official unemployment figures weren’t that disappointing in any case.

Good headlines, bad news

You’ll see something similar for those who have a look at Employment data in Marchwhich was released on April 5.

The headline numbers were significantly better than expected, and financial markets celebrated. There was a complete increase in employment within the non-agricultural sector well above expectations303,000 jobs were created, as were the variety of employees within the private sector outside agriculture. The official unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. On its surface there is just great news.

But for those who dig into the information, you get a unique perspective – especially the numbers showing what number of jobs have been created in government and industry. To find the relevant data – in “Table B Summary of Employment Situation” – you’ve to scroll a couple of pages to the “Current Employment Statistics” press release, however it’s all there.

for those who have a look at the stats from March, you may see that government positions account for over 20% of latest job openings. Moreover, the information shows that no jobs were created within the manufacturing sector in March.

These data suggest that March’s headlines – which suggested excellent labor market conditions – can have been deceptively sunny. Too many government jobs have been created and too few in industry. It’s not a really healthy job market.

As experts and the general public consider the employment statistics that come out on the primary Friday of every month, they needs to be careful not to simply accept the headlines as the entire story.

When it comes to the economy, easy narratives could be misleading.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business and Finance

Crypto surges after Trump’s election – but is it a good ethical investment?

Published

on

By

Estimated 18 million Americans are invested cryptocurrency– says the Federal Reserve. And the United States has just chosen pro-crypto-president.

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have change into trendy digital resource. Supporters say crypto undermines capitalism because it bypasses traditional bankers. Crypto perhaps offer quick riches together with an environment of high-tech sophistication.

Early adopters reaped enormous advantages, and plenty of of them became millionaires and billionaires.

Currently, there are approx 100,000 cryptocurrency millionaires. Moreover, cryptocurrency wealth has been built Fairshake, the most important political lobbying group within the US During the last election, it helped elect 253 pro-crypto candidates.

But is cryptocurrency a good ethical investment?

as business professor who studies the technology and its implications, I even have identified three ethical harms related to cryptocurrency which will give investors pause.

Three wrongs

The first harm is excessive energy consumptionparticularly Bitcoin, the primary decentralized cryptocurrency.

Bitcoins are created or “mined” by tens of hundreds of computers in huge data centers, which contributes significantly to carbon emissions and environmental degradation. Bitcoin mining, which accounts for the lion’s share of cryptocurrency’s energy consumption, uses as much as 0.9% of worldwide electricity demand – near Australia’s annual energy demand.

Secondly, unregulated and anonymous cryptocurrencies are the payment system of alternative for criminals fraud, tax evasion, human trafficking AND ransomware – the latter cost victims an estimated $1 billion in fraudulent cryptocurrency payments.

Until about a decade ago, these bad actors generally moved and laundered money through money and shell corporations. However, around 2015, many individuals switched to cryptocurrency, which is a much less cumbersome type of service dirty money anonymously.

The bank cannot store or transfer money anonymously. By law it is a bank passively complicit in money laundering if not enforced get to know your customer measures to curb bad actors resembling money launderers.

However, within the case of cryptocurrency, legal and ethical responsibility can’t be transferred to the bank – the bank doesn’t exist. So who is complicit? Any member of the cryptocurrency ecosystem will be seen as ethically complicit in enabling illegal activities.

Enegix employees work at a data center in Ekibastus, Kazakhstan, certainly one of the world’s largest Bitcoin mines, January 3, 2023.
Meiramgul Kussainova/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

I find these first two harms to be probably the most ethically troubling. The first harms the Earth, the second undermines global systems of trust – the interplay of institutions that underpin economic activity and social order.

The third problem of cryptocurrency is its predatory culture.

A predatory system, especially without regulatory oversight, exploits small investors. And some cryptocurrencies have enriched their founders by reaping the advantages lack of investor knowledge about virtual currency.

Some cryptocurrencies, especially smaller coins and initial coin offerings, do Characteristics of Ponzi schemes.

For example, the now defunct Bitconnect promised investors big profits who exchanged their Bitcoins for Bitconnect tokens. New investors’ money paid out “profits” to the primary layer of investors with later investors’ money.

Ultimately, Satish Kumbhani, founding father of Bitconnect, decided to achieve this indicted by a federal grand juryand from 2024 his whereabouts are unknown.

A pernicious myth

In addition to the ethical harms of cryptocurrency, there is a pernicious myth surrounding digital coin. The myth of inclusion is the idea that cryptocurrency has the facility to profit especially socially disadvantaged people without a checking account.

The world’s poor who wouldn’t have bank accounts and who could use cryptocurrency for international money transfers to family back home don’t necessarily enjoy the advantages of cryptocurrencies. It’s for this reason need pay conversion and transfer feessay, dollars to cryptocurrency, after which from cryptocurrency to the local currency of the person receiving the cash transfer.

In fact, the distribution of crypto assets is largely concentrated among the many wealthy. A 2021 study found that simply 0.01% of Bitcoin owners controls 27% of its value.

The democratization of finance is often presented as a move geared toward breaking the dominance of traditional financial institutions – private banks and government central banks. However, this narrative didn’t prove true.

Instead, a latest elite emerged: cryptocurrency creatorsearly supporters of i conservatorswho modify the cryptocurrency’s software code and influence its future direction. This group exercises disproportionate control, including over cryptocurrency management. All of this reflects the concentration of power that cryptocurrency was intended to dismantle.

Just a little more ethical?

To be fair, the cryptocurrency community has not ignored the criticism, including calls for greater environmental awareness.

In early 2021, community members founded Cryptocurrency Agreement. The group has recruited around 250 crypto corporations to cut back environmental damage.

The following 12 months, Ethereum took its most important step with its Ether coin. It has reduced its size energy consumption by over 99% by migrating to a coin mining mechanism called “proof of stake”, which doesn’t require miners to unravel complex, energy-intensive puzzles to validate transactions.

It was a daring move. However, Bitcoin, the most important cryptocurrency, has not followed in Ethereum’s footsteps. Bitcoin stands out in that its energy consumption exceeds that of another cryptocurrency.

A worker stands between two rows of bitcoin mining machines along a wall.
A employee installs a latest row of bitcoin mining machines on the Whinstone US bitcoin mining facility in Rockdale, Texas, October 9, 2021.
Mark Felix/AFP/AFP via Getty Images

To address other harms of cryptocurrency, some Regulatory authorities began to regulate the cryptocurrency market in 2023, the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States have launched efforts to curb criminality and protect investors.

In January 2024, US regulators listed funds allowedthat are popular investment funds for investing in cryptocurrencies. The move was intended to assist small investors trade in a safer market.

However, normalizing cryptocurrency trading could have perverse ethical consequences.

For example, probably the most successful ‘ethical’ fund in 2023, Nikko Ark Positive Change Innovation Fundwas successful with a 68% return because he bet on cryptocurrencies. Its manager rationalized this investment by repeating the parable that cryptocurrency allows “providing financial services to underbanked people

Where does all this leave the ethical investor?

I consider that investors have two clear ethical options regarding cryptocurrencies: they will abandon Bitcoin or no less than put money into other cryptocurrencies that minimize harm, especially environmental harm.

However, even so-called ethical investments raise hidden ethical issues.

Many ethical investors put money into the so-called ESG funds that emphasize social or environmental impact. Some of those ESG funds may avoid holdings in oil corporations by investing directly or not directly in cryptocurrencies.

This doesn’t seem ethically coherent.

While cryptocurrency offers exciting opportunities and the potential for prime returns, its environmental impact, links to criminality and predatory nature pose significant ethical challenges.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
Continue Reading

Business and Finance

Daymond John celebrates the fifth annual Black Entrepreneurs Day

Published

on

By

shark tank, Black Entrepreneurs Day, Daymond, John, deal, stalker, grants, Black entrepreneurs


Daymond John will have a good time the fifth anniversary of Black Entrepreneurs Day in Atlanta for the first time.

November 22, John’s signature Black Entrepreneur Day (BED) will take over Atlanta’s historic Fox Theater to have a good time Black Excellence and Opportunity. This 12 months’s event is free for all to attend and includes brand activations that enable participants to reinforce their business and brand for the foreseeable future.

From insightful discussions with inspiring guests to the NAACP Small Business Powershift Grant Program, which can award over $1 million in grants to over 40 Black-owned businesses, Black Entrepreneurs Day offers the whole lot a Black business owner needs to raise take your corporation to the next level the next level. This 12 months’s event is special for John; In addition to hosting BED in Atlanta for the first time, the event shall be streamed live for all to enjoy.

“We’re doing it live this year and we’re always trying to improve what we have,” John says BLACK ENTERPRISES.

“I think we added another element to it called ‘Entrepreneur Square,’ where if you want to come early, you can come in and a company like Constant Contact takes photos. Hilton for Business, Chase, Chase Wealth Management is there, US Navy. You add a lot of different things to it.”

It shall be a star-studded event featuring Grammy-winning artist and philanthropist Kelly Rowland, iconic artist Flavor Flav, influential media personality Charlamagne tha God, Olympic gymnast Jordan Chiles (presented by JP Morgan Wealth Management), financial educators Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings with “Earn Your Leisure” and a live performance by multi-platinum Atlanta rapper 2Chainz presented by Raising Cane’s.

Through the NAACP small business Powershift grant program, entrepreneurs can do exactly that use to the Powershift Grant program and grow to be one in every of 40 firms awarded a share of grants value over $1 million. This 12 months, partners including JPMorgan Chase, Hilton, T-Mobile for Business and Constant Contact will contribute a complete of $100,000 in grants, with each grant valued at $25,000.

“We are very passionate about what we do,” John says of the Black community. “I think we can now gain more power by democratizing the retail space with solutions like artificial intelligence and social media. Let’s support each other and support each other.”

Given the strong sponsorship support for BED 2024, John sees it as clear evidence that giant corporations recognize the value of investing in the Black community, even in the face of opposition from anti-DEI efforts.

“There are many other cultures that love to support us as well. They love our music, they love our food, they love everything about us and they just want to know how they can support us,” notes John.

“I think if we look at it this way, it means we can never gain or thrive on our shortcomings, but we can always find those gems and ways to grow from what we are. We are a resilient nation loved by all.”

Launched in 2020 to handle the challenges facing the community in the wake of the events surrounding George Floyd, Black Entrepreneurs Day was established to shift the focus from hardship to empowerment. Designed to uplift Black entrepreneurs, the event goals to teach and encourage through conversations with iconic Black leaders and celebrity guests, features celebrity musical performances and offers key financial support through the NAACP Powershift Grant program.

Tickets for Black Entrepreneurs Day 2024 are free and may be purchased at: BlackEntrepreneursDay.com Now. Press play to learn more about this 12 months’s event.


This article was originally published on : www.blackenterprise.com
Continue Reading

Business and Finance

Black Girl Digital on a mission to empower diverse creators

Published

on

By

Black girl digital, LaToya bond, LaToya shambo


Meet Black Girl Digital (BGD Media), one among the fastest-growing multicultural, independent marketing agencies within the makerspace, is led by two dynamic Black women entrepreneurs.

Founded and led by CEO LaToya Shambo and CMO Latoya Bond, Digital black girl goals to deliver revolutionary, data-driven marketing solutions tailored to the brands and creators who’re shaping the longer term of promoting and commerce. With a long time of combined experience, these two business leaders have come together to create an agency uniquely equipped to navigate the complexities of multicultural marketing.

“The mission of Black Girl Digital is really about how to bring brand and creators together to go beyond partnerships and build a deeper relationship,” says Shambo BLACK ENTERPRISES.

The pair first met while collaborating on the 2023 Black Girl Digital Awards. While many individuals discuss women competing in business, Shambo and Bond saw a chance to mix their strengths and platforms.

“We went through the process of working together and I saw her talent and she saw my talent. We noticed that we both had these unique skills that worked really well together,” Shambo says.

Combining Black Girl Digital’s expertise in influencer marketing with the BBM Agency’s strength in celebrity business management, BGD Media is uniquely equipped to handle the intricacies of multicultural marketing.

“Because her company was more involved in paid marketing, brand management and communications strategy, it really complemented what we did on the Black Girl Digital side, through partnerships with corporate brands and diverse creators,” Shambo explains.

“Together, we have been able to join forces and offer our brands and creators a full range of media and marketing services, thanks to which the partnership goes deeper rather than superficial.”

Shambo attributes BGD Media’s success to its multimarketing service offering that “brings the customer closer to the creator and the creator closer to the customer.” One of the newest initiatives is the inaugural Black Influencer Weekend, which goals to showcase to major brands and corporations how Black creators are usually not only setting trends, but additionally driving significant cultural and economic change across industries.

During the three-day event, over 1,500 participants engaged in vigorous discussions and activations focused on community, connection and variety amongst creators. Highlights included the VIP Creator Games Night featuring bowling competitions and life-size Connect 4 video games, creating what Shambo describes as a “creator playland.”

On October 2, participants took part in a day stuffed with inspiring and influential discussions in the course of the Influencer Summit. Speakers included media personality Yandy Smith; creative director of beauty and lifestyle Tiarra Monet; and NCAA champion and ladies’s basketball coach Sydney Carter. Conversations covered topics equivalent to balancing a profession outside of social media, maintaining mental health, and constructing meaningful partnerships.

The weekend concluded with the third annual Black Girl Digital Awards, where content creators equivalent to Druski, Monet McMichael and Kai Cenat were honored for his or her power, position and recognition across various platforms. Additionally, business leaders equivalent to Yandy Smith, Marvet Britto and Mona Scott-Young have been recognized as pioneers of influence and visionaries redefining the digital landscape.

At its core, Black Girl Digital is about tackling the complexities of multicultural marketing, demonstrating that representation matters and that success comes when brands connect with communities on a human and private level.

“It’s not a monolith. This is not just one group of Black people. There are many people and many cultures in the Black community,” Shambo says. “Being able to express it. But that’s really why brands work with us. Because we are able to accommodate the different cultures found in each community.”

“We also mainly focus on the passion points and interests of audiences in these communities,” she added.

What’s next for Black Girl Digital? Shambo seeks global domination.

“These will be the Global Influencer Awards,” he says.


This article was originally published on : www.blackenterprise.com
Continue Reading
Advertisement

OUR NEWSLETTER

Subscribe Us To Receive Our Latest News Directly In Your Inbox!

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.

Trending