Suggestion of the President of the United States Donald Trump that the USA will pass a torn war and create “the Middle East” riviera “ was Immediately condemned by the international communityincluding American allies and opponents.

His threats appear only two weeks in a weapon suspension agreement between Israel and Hamas, and the risk is undermined by regional diplomatic efforts that took Possible offer of weapon suspension.

A weapon suspension agreement organized in three phases includes the exchange of Israeli hostages for some Palestinian prisoners; withdrawal of Israeli forces along the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors; and the return of significant humanitarian aid needed to rebuild the war-torn Gaza-Nie “Clean it“, As Trump suggested.

In the post-war landscape-among the threats of Trump He stood next to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu In the White House – Israel is probably in a paradoxical situation: both higher and worse.

On the one hand, Israel is safer than ever before. He used the shock of attacks of October 7 to remodel the regional balance of power, showing military force and restoring deterrence.

On the other hand, the relentless bombing of Israel in gas, his reluctance to offer public pressure and perceived ignoring international law and order based on the principles They isolated the country, probably transforming it right into a pariah on the world stage.

Use of a disaster

Historically, Israel implemented a counterbalance generally known as “Mowing grass” Designed to weaken their opponents by limited targeted military campaigns, which deliberately don’t stop full destruction.

The strategy never geared toward solving the original causes of the conflict. Rather, he focused on stopping a big -scale Hamas, reliable attacks on Israel.

On October 7, it was exactly what “mowing grass” tried to avoid. However, the passage of security unintentionally created mature conditions so that Israel could justify – even for a limited time – a much larger and more destructive campaign against Palestinian groups of fighters. A window appeared and Israel caught it.

Israel ground and air campaign in the last 15 months significantly weakened The group, though, as the recently shows show of strength, Has not been eliminated.

The control of the Israeli army over key border points, the destruction of tunnels used to perform attacks and weapons of smuggling and targeted murders of political leaders could make Hamas again to use similar levels of sculpture in the near future.

Hezbollah in the north

Like in Gaza, the Israeli government used the relentless rocket attacks of Hezbollah to justify a separate military campaign deeply on Lebanese territory.

Within just a few weeks, the offensive reportedly killed more than 4,000 hezbollah fighters, destroyed key weapons buffers and critical infrastructure and pushed the group North of the Litani RiverAbout 30 kilometers from the Israeli border.

Israel shocked the world even more when at the same time detonated pagers and scrubs Used by Hezbollah fighters. Then there was a number of targeted killings, including the longtime leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah and his then success, Hashem Safeddine.

The controlling of the Hezbollah command chain together with the lack of implementation of an efficient contract revealed that the group is much weaker than expected. This, in turn, forced Hezbollah to make significant concessions and give up to Weapon suspension agreement It worked against his interests.

Wider region

Houthi’s movement supported by Iran in Yemen also entered the conflict Grabbing Israeli and Western ships And starting a series of drone and rocket attacks on Israel.

But Israel reacted with greater strength, showing its ability to steer large -scale bullets, drones and aerial kilometers in Yemen.

And for the first time Israel and Iran got involved in direct Tit-for-Tat escalation alternativecausing concerns about the entire regional war. Israel’s defense systems, supported by allies and neighboring countries, successfully thwarted lots of of Iranian missiles.

Israel’s response successfully bypassed the Iranian anti-Misie defense system, sending a decisive message of military superiority. Israel also showed its advantage of intelligence by Hamas leaders’ assassin ismail Haniyeh in Iran, when he lived in a relationship secured by the Islamic Corps of the Revolutionary Guard.

The collapse of the Syria Assad regime also created a vacuum of power, which prompted Israel to behave Hundreds of raids geared toward destroying weapons abandoned by the Syrian army, surface defense rocket systems and take over the strategic territory near its border.

The growing presence of Israel in Syria and the dominance over the airspace is now much easier to capture the supply chain between Iran and Hezbollah.

All for the cost

Israeli striving to stop opponents and restore its position as regional power reached a high price: its popularity.

Diplomatically, some of Israel’s closest allies, including Canada, France and Great Britain, even have Forbidden or limited sales of weapons to Israel.

Once, unified support for Israel in the USA from the Republican and Democratic Parties has develop into Tight. General Assembly of the United Nations He voted for the most part That the Security Council considers the adoption of Palestine as 194. Member – Movement perceived by Israel as a reward for October 7.

Israel is also in the face of the Public Relations crisis in the International Criminal Court, where it is currently subject to the task violation of the genocidal convention In relation to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Similarly court issued an order For Netanyahu and the former defense minister Yoava Gallant for “deliberate deprivation of gazantes of food and directing attacks on civilians.”

Israel’s wavy effects spilled abroad, affecting a major part of the world, and especially public opinion of younger generations about the conflict.

For example, in the USA SUF research report They stated that Americans under 30 years of age sympathy with Palestinians than Israelis. The results are similar in Canada, and the youth aged 18 to 24 reported Support for Hamas on Israel Through the margin of two to at least one.

Is Israel more or less secure?

While Israel’s response to Iran and “Axis of resistance” It placed the country in a safer, more military dominant position than before the war, the consequences of this strategy could also be short -lived.

Gaza paintings – loss of civil life, resettled families and ravenous children with out a real perspective of the future – modified public opinion against Israel. This was shred with diplomatic relations with once dependent allies-although apparently not the US under Trump-a wider peace process in the Middle East and fuel the revival of anti-Semitism, especially on university campuses, I didn’t see the Holocaust.

But above all, Israel’s response to October 7 may function the strongest recruitment tool for future cycles of Palestinian violence. For many, especially young people around the world, it is possible that future violence will be seen as a legitimate form of resistance.

And if this is the case, together with the unlikely perspective of Israel, permanently discouraging Iran and his proxies, and with the American president, who is in favor of moving the entire population of Gaza situation than ever before.

Syrians have been for over a decade The world’s largest refugee population.

Has over 6 million Syrians I ran away from the country Since 2011, when the Bashara Assad’s regime was created right into a 13-yr civil war. Most resulted in neighboring countries, corresponding to Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt, while there was a big minority in Europe. But the overthrow of the Assad regime at the end of 2024 by opposition forces under the leadership of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham apparently opened the window to their return and Tens of 1000’s of former refugees Since then, they decided to return to their homeland.

How many and who determine to return, and the circumstances during which they’re repeated with Syrian society will have huge consequences for each Syria and the countries during which they resettled. Scholars of migration like us To higher understand what will occur when refugees finally return home.

Previous studies have shown that Syrian refugees who are attempting to determine whether to come back are motivated More by conditions in Syria than on the basis of political decisions during which they moved. But individual experiences also play an vital role. Necessary, refugees who were exposed to violence during the civil war in Syria are in actual fact more tolerant and higher assess the risk of returning to Syria, Studies have been demonstrated.

But such tests were conducted, while Assad was still in power and only a number of weeks have passed since the fall of Assad. As a result, it is not clear how many Syrians will determine to come back. After all, the current government is temporary and the country not fully unified.

Risk of return

A month after Assad’s fall, about 125,000 Syrians faced Home, mainly from Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. But for most of them which have still returned, vital questions and considerations remain.

First of all, what will management under transitional rule appear like? To date, the rule of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham under the rule of Ahmed Al-Sharaa suggested that the group would accept the inclusion towards the various range of ethnic and non secular minorities in Syria. Still, some Observers are anxious About the earlier connections of the group with warming Islamist groups, including Al-Qaida.

Similarly, initial fears Restrictions on women’s participation in public life they were mostly satisfied, despite the transitional government appointment only two Women to the office.

Syrians debating whether to return home, in addition they have to face the economic devastation caused over the years of war, improper management of government and corruption and international sanctions placed on the Assad regime.

Sanctions blocking the entry of drugs and equipment, together with the bombing of infrastructure by Assad during the war, it was mutilated country medical system.

In 2024, 16.7 million Syrians – greater than half of the country’s population – was in need Necessary humanitarian aid, even when it was not much available. At the starting of 2025, the USA He announced that he was expanding Partial, six -month sanctions relief to enable humanitarian groups to provide basic services corresponding to water, sanitary and electricity.

But the reconstruction of the country’s infrastructure will last for much longer, and Syrian refugees will have to weigh whether or not they are higher to stay of their receiving countries. This is very true for those that worked on constructing a brand new life for an extended time in exile from Syria.

The Syrian government will even have to solve the problem Return of the property. Many people might want to go home only when it really have a house return to. And the policy of forced real estate transfers and settlements by Alawite and minority groups allied with the Assad regime in former Sunni areas released during the war, they complicate this problem.

Still welcoming in Europe?

Since the starting of the civil war, about 1.3 million Syrians were looking for protection in Europe, most of them arrived in 2015 and 2016 and settled in countries corresponding to Germany and Sweden. From December 2023, 780,000 people He continued to maintain the refugee status and the protection of the subsidiary-the addition form of international protection-the part that received long-term stays or citizenship.

Dependent protection has been granted to individuals who do not meet the rigorous requirements regarding the status of refugee on the basis of Geneva conventions -who requires an affordable fear of persecution based on breed, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group-but “”He would meet with an actual risk of suffering serious damage“If they return to their countries of origin.

Syrian recognition indicators remained consistently high in 2015-2023, but malfunction Between the protection of the subsidiary and the status of the refugee will change over the years, with 81% received refugee status in 2015 compared to 68% protection of a subsidiary in 2023.

In the case of Syrians in the EU, who’ve refugee status or protection of a subsidiary, in addition to for individuals with ongoing asylum claims, the future could be very uncertain. According to the Geneva Conventions, EU law allows governments Return, finish or refuse to renew Their status, if the reason to offer protection, determine what, according to many countries, takes place after the fall of Assad.

From that point no less than 12 European countries Asylum applications of Syria residents suspended. Some nations, corresponding to Austria, threatened to implement the “orderly return and deportation” program.

Conditions in Turkey and Lebanon

A much larger number of Syrians have been protected in neighboring countriesNamely Türkiye (2.9 million), Lebanon (755,000) and Jordan (611,000), although the estimates of unregistered Syrians are much higher. In Turkey, which hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees, Syrians only assurance Temporary protection status.

Theoretically, this status enables them to access work, healthcare and education. But in practice, Syrian refugees in Turkey were not all the time able to enjoy these laws. In combination with anti -migrant moods deteriorated by the earthquake in 2023. AND Presidential electionsLife remained difficult for many.

And while the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly found that Syrians should return home according to their very own time axis, his Previous scape goat refugee population indicates that he may ultimately want to return them – especially like Many in Turkey Now imagine that Syrian refugees haven’t any reason to stay in the country.

Syrians in Lebanon, during which guests of the largest number of Syrian refugees per capita, face even greater economic and legal challenges. The country is not a signatory to the Geneva Convention and its rigorous national asylum law granted a stay only 17% from over 1,000,000 Syrians living in the country.

Lebanon presses on Syrian refugees to leave the country for years Principles of marginalization and compelled deportationwhich have intensified in recent months with the Syrian’s government deportation program not registered in the UN. From 2023, 84% of Syrian families lived in extreme poverty. Their susceptibility to the susceptibility was tightened by the recent conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon. 425,000 Syrians to escape the war Return to Syria again, despite the incontrovertible fact that the conditions were not secure at the moment.

Water testing

Offering visits and seeing-during which one member of the family can return to the native country to assess the situation, after which allow re-entering the host country without losing legal status is the norm In many situations for refugees. Politics is currently used for Ukrainians in Europe and has been utilized in the past for refugees from Bosnian and South.

The same policy can now serve Syrian refugees – in actual fact, Turkey He recently implemented such a plan. But above all, we expect that returning to Syria should be voluntary, not forced. Obtaining conditions for the return of refugees will have huge consequences for the reconstruction of the country and maintaining peace – or not – in the coming years.

New York representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican, testified before the Senate of the Commission of Foreign Relations on January 16, 2025, as a part of her Confirmation process to change into the next US ambassador to the organization of the United Nations.

International diplomacy is the essence of the UN as a former UN official and academic Whoever published broadly on the UN, I do know that diplomacy is an art, not a science.

And a superb ambassador could make an actual difference.

Direct line from the UN to the President

The countries create and maintain in the UN, they’re essential to assist in confrontation with global crises exceeding the range and strength of each nation.

All 193 governments that make up the UN have ambassadors who negotiate various UN contracts in matters, from terrorism to terrorism nuclear proliferation.

Of all these ambassadors, the American envoy is a very loud and unique work. First of all, the US is a rustic hosting the UN headquarters. The USA can be UN The largest financial co -creator.

Some US ambassadors were skilled diplomats like Linda Thomas-GreenfieldThe current ambassador who was appointed by President Joe Biden in February 2021.

Other former US ambassadors in UN have origin in other areas, In this academyIN journalism AND American policy.

The US ambassador could also be a part of the president’s office and report directly to the president or may not have the rank of a office and as a substitute report to the Secretary of State. Nikki Haleywho was the UN ambassador during the first Trump administration, he had the status of the office, like Stefanik, assuming that she was confirmed.

Having the president’s ear strengthens the influence of the ambassador on the UN

The most vital works of the ambassador

The US Ambassador is an efficient international lawyer of the government’s interests, or in reducing the lack of food safety and prevention of hunger in other countries or an attempt to stop North Korea before Firing ballistic missiles.

The ambassador explains the special positions of the US government towards ambassadors and representatives of other countries in the UN

The US ambassador also listens to foreign representatives about their political positions. The ambassador then acts as a bridge between the UN in New York and the US government in Washington, for instance, moving in difficult conversations about human rights and terrorism.

The third, day by day role of the ambassador is to supervise the 150 of the Department of State and other employees in US mission to the UNThe constructing on the other side of the street from the headquarters of the UN at First Avenue in Manhattan.

Employees of the American mission do all the things from negotiating the resolution of the Security Council to advise the ambassador and other best offices in media relations.

The US ambassador can be heavily involved in the alternative of the UN Secretary General, who conducts organization in his diverse political and humanitarian work over five years.

Countries can nominate individual candidates to act as secretary general. But each candidate must give you the option to gain the support of the United States and other everlasting members of the Security Council who’ve the right to seal and reject the potential UN leader.

The countries will then vote for the appointment of the recent secretary general in 2026.

UN Security Council

A big a part of the US Ambassador’s work takes place in Security CouncilThe key a part of the UN, whose task is to maintain international peace and security. Since the establishment of the UN in 1945, the Security Council was almost exclusively crisis and emergency.

The Council has more power than probably some other UN branch, because its recommendations and decisions, called resolutions, are considered binding in accordance with international law. . The council voted on sanctions -who may appear like travel bans or freezing international assets-a lot of individuals, countries equivalent to Iran and Somalia, and terrorist groups equivalent to al-Qaida. He can be entitled to authorize UN peacekeeping operations to distribute in conflict zones.

United States, China, France, Russia and Great Britain are five everlasting members of the Council. While other countries turn around and take part in the work of the Council, only these everlasting members of the Council can veto the resolutions – leading to it Frequent gifts.

In 2024, the United States used Power veto five times Reject the resolutions related to the war between Israel and Hamas.

The US ambassador can assist in the decisions of which the issues discuss, design and provide resolutions and influence other members of the Council.

Real negotiations don’t occur at formal meetings which might be routinely emitted live, but in informal consultation Behind closed doors. At this point, diplomats practice their ingenuity and settle their differences.

A couple of days after the terrorist attacks of September 11 at the World Trade Center and Pentagon, US ambassador John NegroponteThe denominator of the then President George W. Bush negotiated the resolution which called for governments to accept one other counter -terrorist classes.

Six months after confirmation of the US Senate Susan Rice As an ambassador, she led the Security Council in 2009 approval of the resolution, which imposed economic sanctions About North Korea in response to nuclear and rocket tests.

Today, the Security Council deals with various conflicts in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Middle East. The Council also focuses on counteracting terrorism, energy, climate, natural resources and other problems.

Doing

The UN US ambassador is a public figure who is usually to travel outside the country to justify why the participation and leadership of the United States in the UN.

This is significant because Fr. 40% of Americans In 2023, they said that the US doesn’t use a UN member, and in democracy a successful approach of foreign policy should have social support.