In all conflicts, the period leading as much as a ceasefire agreement is the most dangerous, as each side tries to realize the absolute best military position before the fighting ends. The long and drawn-out negotiations to finish the war in Gaza are not any exception.
Hamas has renewed missile attacks on Israel and Israeli forces operations in Rafah, which Israel presents as Hamas’ last stronghold, and in Jabalia in northern Gaza. Ceasefire talks in Cairo were, in turn, disrupted by events on the ground.
The way Israel and Hamas assess their progress in the war tells us so much about the prospects for talks.
The past week has shown that the war is just not going well for Israel. Four months ago, Israel announced that it had “dismantled” Hamas battalions in northern Gaza. Now its soldiers are fighting Hamas again, not only in Jabalia, but additionally in the country several other places near Gaza City.
This highlights Israel’s failure to attain a “total victory” over Hamas and highlights the weakness of the intelligence on which its battle plans are based. It is evident that Israeli intelligence underestimated the scope and class of the Gaza tunnels and the tactical flexibility of Hamas.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu often claims that Israel is on the path to victory. This colours his attitude towards ceasefire negotiations – that there will probably be no lasting ceasefire and the war in Gaza will proceed.
Mohammed Saber/EPA
On the other hand, the war was a propaganda triumph for Hamas. Photos of the terrible suffering of the Palestinian people circulated around the world.
Hamas also demonstrated its deft promoting skills when it did so announced that it accepted the ceasefire agreement negotiated by Egypt on May 6. In reality, Hamas merely accepted the framework and made counterproposals on key details, corresponding to the release of Israeli hostages. Nevertheless, the news that Hamas had accepted the agreement became headline news.
Despite the atrocities committed on October 7, Hamas delegations are welcome in Russia, Iran, Turkey and South Africa. Student demonstrations and protests in Europe and North America look like weakening the West’s resolve to support Israel. Is A reason to imagine that Hamas, relatively cynically, believes that the war goes well, at the very least politically.
The group says the war has turned the Palestinian issue the other way up public attention Around the World. His attitude towards the ceasefire needs to be seen in this light. Hamas has made clear that it only wants a ceasefire on its terms – one that may effectively mean remaining in power in some form in Gaza.
There remains to be an extended approach to an agreement
Despite these aspects, negotiations proceed. Evaluating their progress may be very difficult given the many levels of decision-making. Political leaders speak through official teams of negotiators and intelligence services of Qatar, Egypt, the US and Israel.
Hamas is split between its internal leadership in Gaza and external leadership in Qatar. The Qatar-based group’s political leader, Ismael Haniyeh, is senior in the hierarchy, but its leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, also holds a critical position.
They will not be political rivals. But while Sinwar is on the ground – or, more likely, in his tunnel, Haniyeh is more exposed to international diplomacy. It often takes about 48 hours for messages to transfer between them.
There is a transparent divide in Israel between those whose priority is to crush Hamas and people whose priority is to free the hostages. The remaining 132 hostages have spent greater than 200 days in captivity, and every day demonstrations are geared toward putting pressure on the government to achieve an agreement to bring them home. For many who’ve done so, it’s already too late He died and there may be a fear that many more will succumb to the terrible conditions in which they’re held.
However, far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition have all but rejected a ceasefire, while more moderate members want one. This led to voltage with the opposition National Union party, which is a component of the emergency war cabinet.
Atef Safadi/EPA
Hanging over ceasefire negotiations is the query of what is going to occur to Gaza after the war. The current framework being discussed in Cairo is a 42-day ceasefire agreement, with discussion on a more everlasting cessation of hostilities known as a “sustainable calm.”
The Israeli government has no realistic “day after” plan beyond an Israeli military presence and an unspecified Palestinian civilian administration. In other words, a return to the pre-war situation, but with Israeli military occupation of Gaza. This is a recipe for recreating the conditions that led to the October 7 massacre. This would ensure neither security for Israel nor peace for the Palestinians.
This was done by one in every of Israel’s former prime ministers, Ehud Olmert he argued It is in Israel’s interest to determine a brand new agenda for Israelis and Palestinians. According to him, Israeli hostages needs to be returned in exchange for ending the war.
This should then be followed by the withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip and its alternative by a global peacekeeping force, preferably led by Arabs. In the long term, concrete steps should be taken towards establishing a Palestinian state.
Olmert understands that politics must determine military motion. Unfortunately, the Israeli government and Hamas want military motion to shape their policies. This doesn’t mean that there will probably be no ceasefire in Gaza, however it doesn’t bode well for future peace in the Middle East.