How rather more dangerous has the Middle East turn out to be in recent weeks?

The Middle East is in a rather more unstable situation than it was a yr ago. This conflict has spread far beyond fighting, mainly between Israel and Hamas.

Currently, Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in a conflict that has developed over the past yr and which appears to be more dangerous than the Israel-Hamas conflict. This involves exploitation Israeli special operations unitswhich have been secretly operating in Lebanon in small groups since November 2023. Moreover, Israel was accused by Hezbollah of conducting unconventional military operations – like exploding walkie-talkies and pagers – and launched lots of of air and missile attacks in Lebanon over the previous few weeks. The combination of those operations destroyed Hezbollah’s weapons caches and military infrastructure killed several senior leaders of the groupincluding Hassan Nasrallah.

The human costs of those attacks are significant because over 1,000 people died in Lebanon. It is unclear how a lot of this number were killed and injured actually Hezbollah fighters.

Israel and Hezbollah recently had one direct war in 2006which lasted 34 days and over 1,500 people died between Lebanese civilians and Hezbollah fighters. Since then, Israel and Hezbollah have been waging a shadow war – but not with the intensity and every day pattern we saw after October. 7 landscape.

Today, the conflict may spread well beyond the region and even to the entire world.

What does Iran have to do with the conflict between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah?

Iran said fired rockets to Israel in retaliation for attacks on Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian army.

Coalition of groups and organizations now tagged as “Iranian”Axis of Resistance” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and senior military commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, have issued unified guidelines to all different elements, whether it is Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria.

Before October 7, 2023, all of those groups were ideologically opposed to Israel to some extent. But additionally they struggled with their very own conflicts and didn’t rally around supporting Hamas. Now everyone has turn out to be more energetic around the common goal of destroying Israel.

In particular, Iran and Hezbollah have a deep relationship that dates back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In 1982, Israel invaded southern Lebanon to thwart cross-border activities attacks the Palestine Liberation Organization and other Palestinian groups attacked Israel. Newly created Iranian The IRGC sent advisers and trainers to the south Lebanon to cooperate with like-minded Lebanese Shiite fighters who were already fighting there Civil war in Lebanon. They wanted to fight the Israeli army and elements of the so-called a multinational force consisting of American, French and other Western troops originally sent as peacekeepers to put an end to the fighting.

How does Hezbollah’s history help explain its actions today?

Relationships between Iranian experts and Lebanese fighters during Lebanon’s 15-year civil war led to the creation of Hezbollah as a small, secret group in 1982.

Over the next few years, Hezbollah launched a brutal campaign of terrorist attacks against American, French and other Western interests in Lebanon. The group then often known as Islamic Jihad was the first to attack US Embassy in Beirut on April 18, 1983. This attack killed 52 Lebanese and American embassy employees. However, at the time, U.S. intelligence personnel and other security experts were unsure who was accountable for the embassy bombing. And given this lack of information and insight into the matter Hezbollah as an emerging terrorist threatthe group aimed even higher in 1983.

After the attack on the embassy, ​​Hezbollah carried out October 1983 Marine barracks bombing in which 241 American service members died. Before the 9/11 attacks, it was the largest single act of international terrorism against the US

Hezbollah was also responsible kidnapping and murder of American residentsincluding William Buckley, the CIA station chief in Beirut. He also committed plane hijackings, including the infamous ones TWA 847 Incident in 1985, the yr a U.S. Navy diver was murdered.

Thus, Hezbollah has an extended history of regional and global terrorism.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah is a form of parallel government to Lebanon. The Lebanese government has allowed Hezbollah to be a state inside a state, nevertheless it doesn’t cooperate in military operations. Currently, the Lebanese army doesn’t respond to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. This shows how dominant Hezbollah has turn out to be.

How damaging are Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah?

Hezbollah clearly suffered fighter losses, but Hezbollah is a much larger group than Hamas and operates over a much larger physical territory throughout Lebanon.

It has a much larger stockpile of advanced weapons than Hamas ever had, and a big fighting force that encompasses it 40,000 to 50,000 regular forces organized in a standard military structure. It also has this 150,000 to 200,000 rocketsdrones and rockets of assorted ranges. He runs a dangerous global terrorist unit called the External Security Organization who attacked the interests of Israel and Jews in the US The Nineties in Argentina and Jewish tourists 2012 in Bulgaria.

The Israeli military estimates that it has destroyed no less than half of Hezbollah’s existing weapons stockpile, depending on volume and intensity their activities over the previous few weeks. If true, it will pose a major challenge to Hezbollah’s long-term operational capability, which has taken many years to achieve.

What security risk does this evolving conflict pose to the United States?

Looking at how Hezbollah has demonstrated these capabilities over the course of 40 years, and given Israel’s current attacks on this militant group, it will not be far-fetched to speculate that Hezbollah has ordered or is considering some form of terrorist attack far beyond the country’s borders in the region – similar to what the group did in Argentina in 1992 and 1994. It is unclear what this conspiracy would appear like, how many individuals can be involved, or the possible goal of such an attack.

Hezbollah leaders said they blamed Israel for the attacks on it. About every week before Nasrallah died he said Israeli pager and walkie-talkie explosions in Lebanon “declaration of war” and “the enemy has crossed all red lines.”

Since then, Hezbollah has remained defiant, despite the group’s significant losses to Israel over the past few weeks. Questions also remain about how Hezbollah’s leaders will similarly hold the United States accountable for Israel’s actions. And in that case, would this mean a return to the form of terrorism that Hezbollah inflicted on American interests in the region in the Nineteen Eighties? As recent events have shown, the world faces a dangerous and unstable security environment in the Middle East.

After the huge bombing of Lebanon, Israel launched a land invasion of its northern neighbor. Soldiers entered southern Lebanon in an try to push Hezbollah back across the Litani River, 29 kilometers from the border with Israel. The specific purpose is meant to facilitate the return of roughly 60,000 displaced Israelis to their homes in northern Israel.

By killing Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and several other of his commanders over the weekend, Israel has already dealt a serious blow to the group.

This strengthened the position of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, regardless that most Israelis wanted him gone.

Israel is now able to repeat its operations in Gaza, Lebanon, with the goal of reordering the Middle East in its own interest. But has he bitten off greater than he can chew?

Balance sheet failed

Israel has been here before.

He invaded Lebanon all of the approach to the capital Beirut in 1982attempting to eliminate the Palestine Liberation Organization. It tried to suppress Palestinian resistance to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, which had existed since 1967. Israeli-Arab war.

1982 was also the yr of the creation of Hezbollah with the assistance of the recently established Islamic government in Iran.

Israel authorized its Lebanese Christian allies to accomplish that massacre tons of Palestinians within the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in Beirut. It also forced the Palestine Liberation Organization to maneuver its headquarters from Beirut to Tunisia.

Israel then established a security zone north of its border but faced stiff resistance from Hezbollah. As Israeli losses mounted, then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak made a decision unilateral withdrawal in 2000.

The withdrawal strengthened Hezbollah’s popularity and strength as a powerful political and paramilitary force against Israel and its allies.

Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006 in an try to destroy Hezbollah. It failed to realize its goal. After 34 days of bloody fighting and significant costs for each side, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on a cease-fireand Hezbollah won.

A defiant war

Netanyahu is confident that he’ll succeed this time. He also has the support of his extremist ministers, especially the ministers of national security, finance and defense. He depends upon their support to survive in domestic politics.

Israel has more firepower than ever before. It showed this through the Gaza War, taking revenge for Hamas’ killing of over 1,000 Israelis and the kidnapping of roughly 240 Israeli and other residents October 7.

In scorched earth operations, the Israel Defense Forces razed swathes of the Gaza Strip and killed greater than 40,000 civilians – 35% of them children – and two million more were repeatedly displaced.

In this way, Netanyahu’s leaders ignored the norms of war, international humanitarian law, and the UN Security Council resolution for a ceasefire and a warning to the International Court of Justice against genocidal activities.

Moreover, he overtly rejected widespread condemnation of Israel’s actions around the globe.

His defiant stance is reinforced by Israel’s ironclad military, financial and economic support. Washington has just approved a further $8.7 billion (roughly A$12.5 billion) aid package to support Israel’s campaign in Lebanon.

Netanyahu had no compelling reason to be sympathetic to Washington’s calls for restraint or a ceasefire.

Will it be different this time?

Netanyahu’s confidence is further strengthened by Israel’s nuclear capabilities. Although Israel has not declared it, it is reported to have it many nuclear weapons regional deterrence and military supremacy within the region.

Netanyahu and his supporters claim that their use of disproportionate force is justified in self-defense against the so-called terrorist tentacles (Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah) Iranian octopus. With the United States and several other of its Western and regional Arab allies sharing its position, Israel is once more specializing in the unfinished business of rooting out Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is a key element of Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel and the US. Netanyahu knows that the destruction of this group will mean parting Iran’s national and regional security system. He doesn’t hesitate to risk a direct confrontation with Iran, while being assured of full US support in such a case.

Tehran cannot be expected to desert Hezbollah, but it also has other priorities in domestic and foreign policy. Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, took power promising to cut back theocratic political and social restrictions and improve the living conditions of most Iranians.

Pezeshkian can be committed to improving Iran’s regional and diplomacy, including reopening negotiations with the West (particularly the US) on nuclear programto finish the sanctions imposed by the US.

Pezeshkian appears to have the support of powerful Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has shown a willingness to be pragmatic when obligatory. His foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that Hezbollah was capable of doing so defending himself.

For now, Tehran’s approach is as on previous occasions, to let Israel remain trapped in Lebanon.

Hezbollah will not be Hamas: it is broken, but still quite well armed and strategically placed. The group will be in a position to offer limitless resistance to the Israeli occupation. This could come at a high human and material cost to the Jewish state, which could also prevent many Israelis from returning home to northern Israel.

At this stage it is significant to recollect two points.

First, after a yr of disastrous campaign, Israel has still not managed to completely suppress Hamas resistance. The task of confronting Hezbollah in a ground war may prove way more difficult and dangerous.

Second, like Netanyahu, former US President George W. Bush sought to structure the Middle East according to US geopolitical preferences. He intervened in Afghanistan and Iraq under the guise of war on terrorism and promoting democracy.

However, America’s actions further destabilized the region.

Since World War II, the use of brute force has rarely served as a viable substitute for diplomacy in managing world problems.

The Albanian government said it might investigate the visa status of protesters waving Hezbollah flags during pro-Palestinian demonstrations in Sydney and Melbourne over the weekend.

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said on Monday that the government was asking authorities in each states to “check the visa status of anyone who comes to their attention.”

“I will not hesitate to cancel the visas of people who come to our country and spread hate,” Burke said.

In public remarks at the start of Monday’s cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said: “We saw some worrying signs over the weekend. We don’t want people to bring radical ideologies and conflicts here. Our multiculturalism and social cohesion cannot be taken for granted.”

Opposition spokesman James Paterson said visas for people carrying Hezbollah flags needs to be canceled and deported.

“This is a breach of the Commonwealth Criminal Code,” Paterson said. “Last December, Parliament voted unanimously to amend the Commonwealth Criminal Code to make it an offense to display the Nazi logo or symbol, or the symbol of a listed terrorist organization, including Hezbollah.”

Late Monday, Australian Federal Police said they expected no less than six “crime reports” from Victoria Police allegedly related to banned symbols and chants, that are being investigated by the AFP for potential breaches of anti-terrorism laws.

“The mere public display of a prohibited symbol does not meet the threshold for a Commonwealth offense,” AFP said.

“The Penal Code sets out very detailed elements that have to be met in order to be charged with committing a criminal offense related to a prohibited symbol.

“The prohibited symbol must be displayed in circumstances where the conduct includes: spreading ideas based on racial superiority or hatred; inciting others to insult or intimidate a person; promoting hatred towards another person; an incitement to incite others to insult, intimidate or use force or violence against a person or group on account of his or her race, religion or nationality or is likely to offend, offend or intimidate people on account of a characteristic feature.”

Meanwhile, the government has appointed Aftab Malik, a New South Wales civil servant who has worked to promote social cohesion and counter extremism, as its special envoy to combat Islamophobia.

The announcement comes after a protracted search and long after the appointment of special envoy to combat anti-Semitism, Jillian Segal.

Albanese and Burke said in a press release that Malik, who was born in Britain to Pakistani parents, is “recognized as a world expert on Muslim affairs by the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations.”

He served as a senior advisor to the Abu Dhabi Peace Promotion Forum and as an advisor to the board of the British Council’s “Our Common Future” project based in Washington.

Albanese and Burke said the appointment was part of the government’s strategy “to ensure all Australians feel safe and included”.

Malik will work with members of the Muslim community, experts in religious discrimination and all levels of government in the fight against Islamophobia. His appointment is for 3 years and can report to each Albanese and Burke.

Malik said anti-Semitism and Islamophobia “are not mutually exclusive – where there is one, you will most likely find the other.”

The nomination was immediately criticized by the Australian Palestine Advocacy Network (APAN).

APAN said that these envoys “who highlight specific experiences of racism with special government investment and attention have failed to address the increasingly frequent and severe forms of racism experienced by Palestinians – not all of whom are Muslims – First Nations peoples and other marginalized communities.” .

“APAN calls on the federal government to disband both special envoy roles and instead engage in evidence-based, systemic anti-racism efforts that support the entire Australian community in eliminating racism and bigotry.”