How did they get entangled in Zea and Saudi Arabia in Sudan?

National aspects in Sudan were the fundamental triggers of the outbreak of the civil war. Calming the Sudan conflict instead war may not appreciate or overlook essential internal variables.

But it is usually essential to emphasise indirect commitment other states. In the corner of the Africa region, Sudan has been cooperating the most in the Middle East in the last twenty years. Among these states there are two monarchies of the Persian Gulf – Saudi Arabia and Zea.

Political relations between Saudi Arabia and Sudan reach the independence of the Sudan state in 1956. And the links to people have flourished for hundreds of years. This is especially because Sudan is geographically near Saudi and two Muslim saints of Mecca (Mecca) and Medina.

The Zea case is different. Since the starting of the recent millennium, the Emirates have expanded their economic and financial impact in Africa, investing in area of interest sectors resembling Port logistics. In particular, Sudan got here to the fore at the end of 2010, when regional balances modified before and after Arab uprisings.

In the years 2014–2015, Saudi Arabia and Zea influence Sudan’s policy President Omar al-Bashir. Both monarchies desired to counteract Iran’s ability to projection of power in the Red Sea and Yemen. In 2015, after breaking relations with Iran in Sudan He brought 10,000 soldiers for military operation under the leadership of Saudi Arabia in Yemen in order to fight Houthi rebels. Both the Sudanese army and paramilitary forces participated, and private connections were falsified.

In the era of post-bashir that began 2019The influence of Saudi Arabia and Zea consistently grew due to these direct links.

In general, each monarchies are on the lookout for status. In the changing international context, Sudan is the basis for their ability to influence and shape future political settlements.

Seeing the transition after 2019 as a possibility to influence the regional position of Sudan, two monarchies decided to support various factions in the Sudan security apparatus. This external support has tightened internal competition.

Riyadh, in combination with Egypt, maintained close connections with the army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Abu Dhabi leveled with the head of fast support forces, Mohamed Dagalo or Heedti.

Since 2019, the relationship between ZAA and Saudi Arabia has modified. After greater than a decade of strategic convergence, especially in regional issues, two monarchies of the Persian Gulf began to develop in matters resembling their view of political Islam. This discrepancy was visible in various crisis scenarios, including in Sudan.

Although each countries jointly served The initial Sudan transition after the overthrow of Bashir, the deterioration of the relationship between Heedti and Al-Burhan created the conditions for showdown between the two monarchy.

However, the conflict in Sudan didn’t explode as a result of a stretch marks between ZAA and Saudi Arabia. But the local actors of Sudan felt in a position to go to war because they were aware of external support. After the outbreak of the conflict, each monarchies were reluctant to withdraw local support in order that they might not seem weak in the eyes of the regional counterpart.

Why is Sudan essential for these countries?

My Last examination With a political scientist Abigail Kabandula shows that ZAA and Saudi Arabia regularly increase their presence in Sudan 2011 Arabian uprisings. The fall of some regimes, including Egypt, made two monarchies of the Persian Gulf fear that instability can open them.

Our evaluation indicates two fundamental reasons for the impact of two countries in Sudan:

. US TRUS to Asia – Moving resources from the Middle East to Pacific – and Arab Spring protests increased uncertainty amongst the Persian Gulf countries. This led to the equalization of the regional dynamics of power and the formation of competing blocks. As a result, Zea and Saudi Arabia searched for closer ties with African countries. In Sudan, the union developed through each military and political involvement.

Our evaluation It shows a rise in the interest of each countries in Sudan in 2012–2020. However, our research also emphasized some key differences in their growing impact.

In the early years, after the Arabian uprisings, Zea’s influence increased rapidly, driven by fears about the spread of protests. This was particularly essential The proximity of Sudan to Egypt.

Saudi Arabia maintained a more stable level of influence in 2010–2020. It was despite Riyadh, it was initially afraid of the spread of protests.

Both countries of the Persian Gulf caught the growing bonds of Al-Bashira with Turkey and Qatar, which, as they were afraid, will strengthen the proisslamist block in the region. But later Bashir’s overthrow in 2019Their approaches began to spread.

Two monarchies of the Persian Gulf perceive Sudan as a key country as a result of its geographical location.

Sudan is situated between the two fundamental regions – Sahel and the Red Sea – characterised by instability and conflict. These regions are facing related challenges: political instability, poverty, food uncertainty and internal and external wars. They also develop into in the resettlement of the population, supranational crime and threat to jihadist groups.

In addition, Sudan is a crucial relationship between the Mediterranean Sea and Sub -Saharan Africa. The country is an intersection that affects the current and future geostrategic dynamics in the region.

The monarchies of the Persian Gulf, including Qatar, also invested quite a bit – between USD 1.5 billion and USD 2 billion -in the Sudan in the agri-food sector, which is essential for their food safety. Sudan, with him abundant water resourcesIt offers a considerable amount of fertile land, which makes it attractive for the Persian Gulf corporations.

What can we expect next?

Like other current global crises – resembling those in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Democratic Republic of Congo – the conflict in Sudan seems difficult to resolve through negotiations. The two fundamental aspects contribute to this difficulty.

First of all, each side perceive the victory of 1 side as completely depending on the defeat of the other. Such logic leaves no room for an answer helpful for winnings. Secondly, the current international context supports the continuation of hostilities. The global balance of the power of power provides each fighting pages of external support. This complicates efforts to search out a peaceful solution.

There are actually two centers of power and management in the country. It is probably going that this division will develop into more clear.

How does Egypt dependent on the USA?

With time, Egypt received more American foreign help than any country except Israel. Received USD 78 billion for economic assistance and USD 90 billion From 1946.

AND peace agreement In 1979, he ended the war between two countries with Israel. Israeli forces withdrew from the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula. Since then, the US has provided Egypt with a everlasting amount USD 1.5 billion, of which USD 1.3 billion is military assistanceEvery 12 months. Goes to financing the purchase by Egyptian weapons systems from American defense contractors.

Help in the US has been the cornerstone of Egyptian and USA for a long time.

Since 1979, Egypt has been a central pillar of American policy in the Middle East. Military assistance is taken into account essential for the regime in Egypt to adapt to the US interests. At the same time, this assistance is widely perceived as contributing to survival Egyptian authoritarian regime.

But history shows that Egypt can alleviate the potential impact of assist in the US in periods of stressed relationships.

USA He suspended some military help to Egypt after Change in the regime in 2013. At that point, El-Sisi who was Selected president in 2014He received support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. He too Increased weapons import from France and Russia.

After the period of review, the Barack Obama administration published Egypt to preserve the interests of the USA. As US Secretary of State John Kerry once explained:

We receive a refund from this investment, which shouldn’t be irrelevant. The army also helps us to implement safety in Sinai (in Egypt). The army also helps us to implement a room in gas.

If this relationship becomes burdened again, Egypt may learn much more independent. The influence of China in Egypt is developmentAnd the Persia of the Persian Gulf, which enjoy close relations with Sisi, can even resolve to finance.

How did Egypt balance his interests with Arab countries, Israel and the USA?

Signature Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty in 1979 A change in Egyptian foreign policy was marked. The treaty adapted Egypt with the West in the recognition of Israel. This decision, nonetheless, led to the isolation of Egypt in the Arab world and its exclusion from Arab league (This was again adopted in 1989).

When Mohamed Hosni Mubarak It was assumed that power The murder of Anwar El-Sadata in 1981Egypt needed to balance the US partnership, keep peace with Israel and reconcile his relations with the Arab countries.

Egypt condemned Israel’s aggression against Palestinians and against Lebanon in 1982 and 2006 and freeze efforts to normalize relations with Israel. This strengthened its key position in Arab circles without exposing the room with Israel.

Meanwhile, Egypt has helped American military assets in moving through the region, and the oil sailed through the SUEZ channel. He maintained peace and stability with Israel by pressure Palestinian resistance movements in de -escation. This balance act allowed Egypt to change into a mediator between Palestine and Israel.

Egypt under Sisi tried to keep up the balance act. However, the ongoing war in Gaza was intensified by Egypt challenges. These include flights for refugees and instability on its border. The war also threatened the long role of Egypt in the Middle East region.

How did the war in Gaza threatened the act of balance of Egypt?

The starting of the war in Gaza in October 2023 was on the fringe of Egypt. Kair is afraid of the potential strategy of Israel consisting in the forced location of Palestinians on the Sinai Peninsula, which is positioned on its territory. Egyptian officials recognized this scenario as Red line. Kair doesn’t need to be seen as undermining the Palestinian case.

In addition, the Egyptians are afraid that the presence of a significant Palestinian population in Sinai – which connects Africa with Asia, and borders with Israel and Gaza – can transform the region into a region into a region into a region Launchpad for attacks About Israel. This would force Egypt to suppress such activities or retaliation from Israel.

This fear results from Incident from 1955. The Israeli army attacked the Egyptian military camp in the Gaza Strip, which was then subject to Egyptian control. Seventeen soldiers were killed after the Palestinian Izrael fighter killed. The Palestinian transfer plan to Sinai caused protests in the Gaza Strip, bringing the Egyptian army in a direct confrontation with Palestinians.

This historical event still shapes Egyptian foreign policy, which rejects all the transfer of Palestinians to Sinai.

The current war emphasized structural weaknesses in A certain Egyptian economy. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which began in 2024 sharp drop In revenues from the Suez Canal, a critical source of foreign income for Egypt.

Sisi played in European fears that what happened in Gaza could harm Egypt’s economic situation and result in it Mass migration to Europe. But money infusions won’t solve deeply rooted economic challenges that the country faces.

The role of Cairo as a mediator between the West, Israel and the Arab world faces the renovated challenges. Other mediators Rhinitisappeared.

What can affect Egypt’s response to Trump’s proposal to the transfer of Palestinians?

Trump application He places the Egyptian regime in an uncertain position. If Egypt agrees to the Palestinian transfer plan, it will mean a dramatic departure from basic foreign policy. It can even destroy the dissatisfaction between his population.

Rejection of proposals would charge Egypt’s relations, potentially undermining support for the SISI regime, which can then be trying to find help from other countries.

The conflict in Gaza emphasizes the historical and political entanglement of Egypt in the Palestinian issue.

What is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has its roots In the early stages of the civil war in Syria, which began in 2011 as a preferred rebellion against the autocratic government of Assad.

The group was created As a branch of the Nusra Front, the official Al-Qaeda Association in Syria. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham was initially recognized as the effectiveness of the fight and commitment to the global ideology of jihadists or the establishment of strict Islamic rule throughout the Muslim world.

For a change in 2016, Nusra Front publicly cut ties with al-Qaeda And he adopted the recent name Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, which implies “front for the conquest of the left.”

The following yr, it merged with several other factions in the Syrian War to become Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham or “Organization of Lewant’s liberation.”

This rebranding was geared toward moving away from the global al-Qaeda jihadist program, which limited the group’s appeal in Syria. Allowed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Focus on issues Specific for Syrians, equivalent to local management, economic issues and humanitarian aid.

Despite these changes, the basic ideology of Hayat Tahrira Al-Sham is still rooted in jihadism, with the foremost purpose of overthrowing the Assad government and establishing Islamic rule in Syria.

Who is al-Golani? How does the group’s central success have?

Abu Mohammed al-Golani Born Ahmed Al-Sharaa In 1982 in Saudi Arabia.

Al-Golani spent early years in Damascus, Syria after his family returned from Saudi Arabia in 1989. His profession of jihadists began in Iraq, where he joined the fighters compatible with Al-Qaeda later The invasion of the USA in 2003.

In 2011, under the direction of an Iraqi fighter, and then-al-Qaeda at Iraq’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Al-Golani was designed to establish a front of the Nusra in Syria.

The group quickly became a robust force in the civil war in Syria.

This is under the leadership of al-Golani Hayat Tahrir al-Sham He tried to introduce As pragmatic, less focused on global jihada, and more on issues related to management in the Idlib region, the largest rebel fortress in Syria.

This change of strategy is part of Al-Golani’s efforts to remodel his national and global image because of the jihadist leader right into a more politically profitable figure in Syrian policy.

The shift of Al-Golani towards a more pragmatic approach, especially after 2017, was crucial for the help of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham Territories and providing itself as a regional ruling force. His last moves, equivalent to adoption more moderate Persona and engaging in traditional public service reflect the central role of Al-Golani in the army and the political evolution of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham-extinguishing the group of power and its efforts in obtaining ID card and international ID.

How did the group become the foremost force in Syria?

To maintain power over controlled territories, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham used a method mix including the establishment of management systems that might ensure stability and services, while legitimizing their control in the eyes of local population.

Aiming to expand and take a bigger territory, the group’s leaders got here to the conclusion required To gain a global community to reduce international opposition and effectively cooperate with a broader Syrian revolutionary movement.

This included cooperation with other entities in Syria, geared toward presenting a united front, which can be more tasty for international observers and potential allies. To do that locally, hayat tahrir al-sham brought many Groups in Syria under his control. Regional and international transformed his image through public relations campaigns, equivalent to engaging in social services.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was since 2017 dominant strength in IdlibWhich, after the government forces, gained control over Aleppo in December 2016, became the last necessary bastion for various groups of rebels.

Over the years, the group has recorded control in the region by functioning as a quasi-eNmutmentProvision of civil services and supervision Local matters – equivalent to controlling motorways and collecting obligations in the field of transport transport – Despite the reports human rights violations.

In recent years, propaganda Hayat Tahrir al-Sham emphasized Protection of Syrian territory and his people against the Assad government.

It helped the group strengthen your position amongst local communities and other rebel groups.

Trying to proceed to burn his image, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham increased public relations efforts, each at home and abroad. For example, he has involved with international media and humanitarian organizations to barter – and filming – help supplies to the areas that rules.

Hayat Tahrir al-sham helped Get local supportpositioning as a defender of Sunni Muslim interests.

Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham strengthened his military abilities Establishing the Military Academy, reorganizing its units in a more conventional military structure and creating specialized forces expert in the performance of coordinated and strategic attacks. The recent advance seems proof that this strategy has paid off.

What does the USA take into consideration the group and al-Golani?

The USA has long Listed al-golani As a specially designated global terrorist and Nusra front as a foreign terrorist organization.

In May 2018, the US Department of State expanded This is a designation covering Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. As a result of these markings, the group and its members encounter legal restrictions, travel bans, freeze assets and banking restrictions.

In addition, the State Department Awards for justice The program is Offering as much as USD 10 million To get details about Al-Golani.

However, the news circled that there have been the United States considering Removing the prize for $ 10 million per leader Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, while Great Britain is Thinking about deleting the group from the terrorist list.

What happens if Al-Golani appears as a post-assad leader?

First of all, we should always notice that these are very early days and stays unclear what Syria will appear to be.

But based on my years, studying Islamic history and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, I’m able to risk several educated guesses. Historically, Islamic empires used a transparent management framework to administer their expansion and administration, which can inform about the approach of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham to reflect these successful strategies.

First of all, I believe Al-Golani probably strives for authentic religious leadership, positioning as a pacesetter whose personal piety and compliance with Islamic principles are according to the religious sentiments of the population.

This can be supplemented by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, emphasizing the role of Sunni Islam in state functions in Syria and integrating religious legal practices with national laws.

Similarly to the situated scale, an efficient administration can become the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham cornerstone. For example, in Idlib, the group established tax systems and community involvement. This is obligatory to construct trust, especially amongst previously marginalized groups.

In addition, allowing some autonomy to have regions in Syria, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham can alleviate the risk of anxiety, balancing strict Islamic law enforcement agencies with cultural and ethnic diversity in Syria.

In general, if Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham at Al-Golani tried to direct the creation of a brand new Syria government, we can expect a management approach, which goals to mix traditional Islamic management and a contemporary ship, attempting to stabilize and harmonize the various and war of the war.

However, the controversial status of the group and the history of combat operations can be serious challenges in terms of universal recognition of international and internal support.