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What could President Raisi’s death mean for stability in Iran and beyond? Questions and answers from experts

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Who was Ebrahim Raisi?

Raisi was a loyal servant of Iran’s former Supreme Leader (the country’s highest authority), Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Rising through the judicial system in the Nineteen Eighties, Raisi gained notoriety as a member “death committee” imposing the death penalty on hundreds of prisoners in 1988, after the top of the Iran-Iraq war.

The exact variety of those sentenced to death is unknown. However, human rights organizations conservatively estimated that roughly 5,000 men and women were made as described as crime against humanity. Raisi denied his role in handing down the death sentences, but additionally said they were justified by Khomeini’s religious ruling.

He also served as deputy head of justice, prosecutor general, and then head of justice. He created the image of a frontrunner who ruthlessly fought corruption, while working to purge the regime’s opponents. He was there in 2016 too appointed by the supreme leader to oversee the Astan Quds Razavi religious foundation, which controls tens of billions of US dollars.

In June 2021, Raisi was installed as president in the Iranian elections, putting the elected leadership back in the hands of hardliners. The result wasn’t an enormous surprise. Raisi was seen because the candidate of current supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the clerical establishment sought to advertise his election and hamper challengers.

How big a blow is the lack of Raisi to the regime?

Raisi was considered loyal to Khamenei and often assumed the role of scapegoat to assist the supreme leader avoid criticism. It was for this reason loyalty that Raisi, although viewed as strange and even weak by many in the Iranian political system, was mentioned as a possible successor to the supreme leader.

However, the lack of Raisi itself has little impact on the Iranian system. He was largely a placeholder representing the needs of the supreme leader, the Revolutionary Guard Corps and hardliners.

The greater challenge is replacing Raisi with minimal internal conflict inside the Iranian regime, maintaining the ostracism of reformists and centrists, and suppressing any protests.

President Raisi was a hard-line cleric near Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
photosince/Shutterstock

After the disaster, Khamenei assured Iranians that “there will be no disruptions in the country’s work.” How true is that this claim?

The supreme leader’s statement is best understood as a call to Iranians to avoid “disruptions,” given the series of nationwide protests that erupted following the disputed end result of Iran’s 2009 presidential election.

Contrary to many individuals’s expectations, incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the clear winner. Widespread unrest followed hundreds of individuals were arbitrarily arrested and dozens were killed on the streets or died in custody.

Khamenei’s rhetoric can be an “all is well” message, countering the intense economic problems and regional tensions Iran faces. Iran’s economy has been in disrepair for years because of a mix of mismanagement and sanctions. The currency is at A level historical minimumlosing 93% of its value since 2018. Inflation persists officially above 40%. and unofficially much higher. Unemployment can be high, especially among the many younger generation.

The regime continues to suppress protests through detentions and intimidation. However, demands for reform remain widespread. They were aroused by the regime hearing regarding compulsory hijab. The Iranian authorities tried to suppress centrists and reformists, but they faced a pointy response from public opinion criticismincluding former president Hassan Rouhani.

Who will replace Raisi?

If the president dies while in office, Iran’s structure stipulates that the primary vice chairman takes power for a period of fifty days with the consent of the supreme leader. New presidential elections are then held at the top of the transition period. Khamenei has confirmed that the primary vice-president, Mohammad Mokhber, will act because the country’s president until the elections.

The process will likely be an expedited version of the usual procedure in which a 12-member board of guardians will review all applicants and disqualify those it deems unacceptable. This should ensure a contest between the hardliner and the conservative, blocking any influential centrist or reformer.

Various factions in the federal government will maneuver to the advantage of the supreme leader. Raisi’s assumption of office signaled the ascendancy of hardliners throughout the regime, sidelining conservatives. At the moment, nonetheless, there isn’t a clear favorite.

Meanwhile, the speaker of parliament and former presidential candidate Mohammad Qalibaf will be the almost definitely conservative. He has been on the forefront of Iranian politics for 25 years. But he did it too lost in two presidential campaigns and is unacceptable to many hardliners.

What could Raisi’s death mean for stability in the Middle East and beyond?

The regime will need to avoid further turmoil inside the regime while reshuffling the seats of power. This includes the substitute of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who has played a crucial role in attempting to present Tehran’s case to the world and find ways to mitigate the results of Western sanctions.

It stays an open query whether Israel, embroiled in the Gaza war and serious internal tensions around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will return to attacks on Iranian interests akin to murders Tehran’s commanders in Syria and Hezbollah officials in Lebanon.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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International

The Hezbollah Pager Attack Was a Sophisticated ‘Trap’ Operation – It Was Also Illegal

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The operation involved the usage of pagers and walkie-talkies, kill members of the Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah It was creative – but was it legal?

There are definitely those that will argue that this was the case. The considering goes like this: Hezbollah was attacking Israel with rocketsand the pagers and radios purchased by Hezbollah could be expected to be utilized by the identical individuals who were involved in the choice to send those rockets. As a result, the killings, if carried out by Israel as is usually believedappears to be deliberate and justified. While some bystanders can have been killed or injured, they’d likely be affiliated with Hezbollah, in accordance with this line of considering.

But that is just not the right assessment, in accordance with international law. According to the law I actually have been teaching for over 40 yearshiding explosives in on a regular basis objects makes traps – and in almost every case, using a trap designed to kill that is a crime.

Prohibited technique of combat

It is significant to acknowledge that the actions that apparently prompted Israel to attack Hezbollah are also illegal under international law. In fact, Hezbollah, a non-state armed group supported by Iran, has no right to make use of violence of any kind, much less rocket attacks targeting civilians within the north of Israel.

Under international law, a non-state actor only gains the appropriate to fight whether it is related to the regular armed forces of a sovereign state engaged in hostilities. This is just not the case with Hezbollah in Lebanon. This signifies that every Hezbollah missile constitutes the commission of a serious crime.

However, this fact doesn’t give Israel the appropriate to make use of traps in response.

The trap is defined by International Committee of the Red Crossthe body answerable for the supervision and implementation of the Geneva Conventions and related treaties referring to the law of armed conflict, as “harmless portable object” – but redesigned to contain explosives. They are a prohibited technique of warfare and are also banned by law enforcement.

In peacetime, police and other law enforcement agencies are restricted to using lethal force only in cases where life is in immediate danger. Carefully dismantling a device, adding explosives, and sending it to be used in homes or places of worship, for instance, can’t be seen as immediately saving lives.

And in Lebanon at the moment the law of peace is in force. According to international law, there’s currently no war in Lebanon. Israel is involved in military operations within the Gaza Stripnot Lebanon. Sporadic attacks on the Lebanese-Israeli border don’t constitute acts of war under international law.

The list of violations is getting longer

Even if there have been war between Israel and Lebanon, How can this occur?Israel wouldn’t be allowed to make use of booby traps. During warfare, enemy combatants could also be deliberately attacked and killed. Ambushes and other covert operations are permitted. And civilian lives could also be lost as a results of such actions.

But using an item utilized by civilians as a weapon is strictly prohibited in war. It is a type of “killing treacherously,” that’s, by deceit. It is the other of carrying weapons openly, because the venerable treaty requires Annex to the 1907 Hague Convention – which remains to be the law binding on all those involved in military operations.

Even though booby traps have been explicitly illegal for over a hundred years, they’re still used. During the terrorist violence that plagued Northern Ireland for a long timeanti-British Irish Republican Army traps setspecifically automobile bombs. The members of the group they were repeatedly chased under British law. Members of the United States military would even be prosecuted in the event that they decided to create and use a trap.

The use of booby traps adds to a growing list of violations of international law by Israel since October 7. The country itself has fallen victim to a brutal criminal act by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups. And international law allows for significant, decisive responses to such a crime. But it also sets strict conditions and limits – and makes clear that the usage of booby traps goes beyond those limits.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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Lebanon Pager Attacks Push Hezbollah, Israel to Brink of All-Out War

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When Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon used a whole bunch of pagers exploded Almost concurrently, on September 17, a series of unprecedented events began within the Middle East. Twelve people died and greater than 2,000 were injured.

A second wave of explosions occurred the subsequent day, this time via walkie-talkies. Explosions killed one other 20 people and injured greater than 400 people. There is consensus that small explosive charges were placed in each device in some unspecified time in the future during or shortly after the manufacturing process.

Meanwhile, Lebanon was in turmoil. Fear flourished on this nebulous atmosphere, with (thus far unfounded) rumours that extraordinary mobile phones were also being targeted. This led some to removing the battery out of your iPhones or exchange their Lebanese SIM cards to international ones.

After the initial attacks, each Hezbollah leaders and Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, he was in a rush to blame Israel. Hezbollah already he swore revenge to perform the attack, although the compromising effects of such a large penetration of its security apparatus mustn’t be underestimated.

As a gaggle that prides itself on its secret security and communications system – one he protects in any respect costs – Hezbollah clearly decided months ago use low-tech solutions to their advantage within the fight against Israel’s highly advanced technological and cyber capabilities.

The logic is evident and well-proven: a pager is far harder to track and far less likely to be hacked than a cellphone. In fact, the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, urged his followers in February to stop using their phones and quit access to the Internet, telling them every phone call “is a mortal threat.”

Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack. But it might make sense for the Israelis to have dealt such a deep blow to Hezbollah’s communications system before – or during – the invasion of southern Lebanon, because they’d have benefited from confusion and surprise.

This view is shared by former Israeli general Amir Avivi, who was quoted as if he said: “Don’t do something like that, don’t kill thousands of people and don’t think that war is not coming… Israel is ready for war.”

On the verge of war

The war between the 2 sides has been brewing for months, with tensions rising periodically. As a researcher of contemporary Lebanese politics, my view until now was that neither side planned the war.

Hezbollah has squandered too many seemingly favorable opportunities to launch an all-out war. These include: attempt Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri in January in southern Beirut, Israel attack on Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, and most recently the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander Fu’ad Shukr in July.

But now things seem completely different. Nasrallah he has already declared that “there will be a reckoning.” And while he has promised similar retribution for previous attacks, a humiliation of this scale could thoroughly push Hezbollah to raise the stakes even further.

Meanwhile, Israel shows no signs of backing down. Israeli attacks proceed. hit Hezbollah targets within the south, while jet planes flew over the Lebanese capital Nasrallah delivered his latest threats.

People at a Beirut cafe watch a televised speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, September 19.
Wael Hamzeh / EPA

There are greater than two sides to this conflict. Lebanon itself must operate under dual leadership, and the federal government’s official response should be separate from Hezbollah’s.

For example, Mikati has he called for national unity as “the strongest response to the attack on Lebanon and its people.” And his foreign minister was much more explicit in his words“There is no doubt that this is a terrifying moment and we fear the coming war because we do not want war.”

What Lebanese civilians want

Most Lebanese residents have consistently said they haven’t any desire for war since October 2023. Recent polls indicate that this sense persists.

But this latest attack could change things. Surveys conducted over the past two years indicate that there was a slight increase in positive perceptions of Hezbollah’s regional policies among the many Lebanese.

And if, as polls suggest, this shift is probably going the result of growing hostility toward Israel because the starting of the Gaza war, the newest attacks will only push the difficulty further.

Of course, there are nuances to these attitudes. Most people in Lebanon seem to remember that the fate of the country shouldn’t be of their hands, and that Hezbollah, Israel and other international actors hold the keys to an all-out conflict.

This has led to a general sense of hopelessness in Lebanon that has been growing since 2019. As a result, only 13% of respondents “I think the situation will improve in the next two or three years.”

Things are quite different across the border in Israel. According to a survey conducted by Israel Democracy Institute in August, only 25% of Israelis thought their country should “refrain from attacking Lebanon’s infrastructure.” In fact, 42% said Israel should “launch a deep attack on Lebanon.”

One would expect that the attack on Hezbollah communications can be welcomed by those that expected a tougher, deeper operation from the Israeli government. Israeli authorities will even undoubtedly hope that the attacks can sow some frustration in Lebanese society against Hezbollah.

But it hasn’t worked thus far. And the attacks, which appear to have killed more civilians than Hezbollah fighters and will constitute a war crime, can have left the Lebanese indignant and victimized.



In the meantime, the world can only wait to see what happens next. For its part, the United States that explained it doesn’t support the war and if reports are to be believed, he doesn’t think an invasion by Israel is inevitable.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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Will the Quads’ reunion be merely apparent and devoid of substance?

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This weekend, the Quad’s 4 leaders will meet again, this time in U.S. President Joe Biden’s hometown of Wilmington, Delaware. The summit can even be a farewell for the two leaders—one of Kishida Fumio’s final acts as Japan’s prime minister, and Biden will end his term 4 months after the meeting.

The Quad is an ambitious undertaking. As the 4 explained in a lengthy first Leaders’ messageIts aim is to advertise “a free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and unfettered by coercion, to enhance security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.”

Described by policy pundits as “minilateral” to tell apart it from broader multilateral regional institutions akin to ASEAN and APEC, the organisation brings together a small group of self-proclaimed “like-minded” countries committed to pursuing a typical set of ambitions for the world’s most populous region.

First established in 2007, the Quad brought together 4 partners to debate shared security concerns raised by China’s rising power. Its first iteration was led largely by Washington and Japan, with Australia and New Delhi being reluctant participants. The group was largely abandoned by its members in 2008. They saw little profit in such overtly anti-Chinese coordination at a time when China’s foreign policy remained cautious.

The quad was brought back to life in 2017The 4 now share a grim assessment of Asia’s geopolitical circumstances. Xi Jinping’s China has an ambitious and assertive foreign policy that has unsettled the region and prompted the 4 to dust off the Quad structure.

The Quad was revived in 2017 in response to Xi Jinping’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy.
Andres Martinez Casares/EPA/AAP

The first formal meeting took place on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in 2017. This was followed by a series of senior officials’ meetings in 2018 and at the level of foreign ministers in 2019 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Further ministerial meetings were held in 2020 in Tokyo and online in early 2021.

Biden hosted the first leaders’ meeting of 2021. There, the group pledged to carry an annual event to offer lasting political momentum for a gaggle the 4 now see as critical to their interests in the region.

At first, the Quad focused on military cooperation to advertise shared military concerns. However, in a comparatively short time, it has moved away from this security focus and has now developed a broad scope of activity. The group has established work programs on climate change, public health, immunization, high technology, infrastructure, educational exchanges, maritime domain awareness, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and even space.

Although it has never been explicitly stated, the Quad is anxious with managing a collective response to China’s rise. The 4 are concerned about the military dimensions of Beijing’s growing prosperity, but in addition about the larger threats to the region’s operating system that this ambitious authoritarian power represents. While military concerns prompted the Quad’s creation, these latter concerns at the moment are being debated.

Oddly enough, economics should not currently part of the equation. This is a noticeable flaw given the ways China uses geoeconomics to advertise its interests.

The Quad re-emerged on the international stage greater than half a decade ago. It quickly went through all the gears, becoming a “leader-led” group, with the attendant media attention and a dramatically expanded policy scope. Despite its impressive statements and long list of work priorities, the reality is that the group has achieved little in terms of concrete cooperation.

As an exercise in diplomatic signaling it was remarkable, and in international affairs symbols matter, but only up to a degree. The achievement of practical cooperation was limited, as was its impact on the regional strategic balance.

Although grouping is clearly a priority, countries are still not particularly well-prepared to work as a quad. This is a function of basic experience in addition to bureaucratic constraints. With time and investment we will expect improvements, but it can be crucial to notice that this has not happened thus far.

If Quad members want their cooperation to be, as a recent article put it, Ministerial Statement “provide concrete benefits and act as a force for good,” then the group must engage in actual political cooperation.

Another major challenge is ensuring that the 4 countries align their interests in the future. All have concerns about China’s growing influence, but beyond that there are some serious challenges in keeping the group together. This is most blatant in relation to Russia, where India’s approach to Moscow is at odds with that of the other three. And their divergent approaches to their economies also make cooperation on this front extremely difficult.

When the leaders gather in Delaware, expect rather a lot of platitudes about the departing American and Japanese leaders, in addition to a fair more elaborate set of agendas to work on. There will be plenty of oblique references to the China challenge and lofty rhetoric. But until the Quad gets going, its ability to exert influence beyond optics will be limited.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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