Who was Ebrahim Raisi?
Raisi was a loyal servant of Iran’s former Supreme Leader (the country’s highest authority), Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Rising through the judicial system in the Nineteen Eighties, Raisi gained notoriety as a member “death committee” imposing the death penalty on hundreds of prisoners in 1988, after the top of the Iran-Iraq war.
The exact variety of those sentenced to death is unknown. However, human rights organizations conservatively estimated that roughly 5,000 men and women were made as described as crime against humanity. Raisi denied his role in handing down the death sentences, but additionally said they were justified by Khomeini’s religious ruling.
He also served as deputy head of justice, prosecutor general, and then head of justice. He created the image of a frontrunner who ruthlessly fought corruption, while working to purge the regime’s opponents. He was there in 2016 too appointed by the supreme leader to oversee the Astan Quds Razavi religious foundation, which controls tens of billions of US dollars.
In June 2021, Raisi was installed as president in the Iranian elections, putting the elected leadership back in the hands of hardliners. The result wasn’t an enormous surprise. Raisi was seen because the candidate of current supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the clerical establishment sought to advertise his election and hamper challengers.
How big a blow is the lack of Raisi to the regime?
Raisi was considered loyal to Khamenei and often assumed the role of scapegoat to assist the supreme leader avoid criticism. It was for this reason loyalty that Raisi, although viewed as strange and even weak by many in the Iranian political system, was mentioned as a possible successor to the supreme leader.
However, the lack of Raisi itself has little impact on the Iranian system. He was largely a placeholder representing the needs of the supreme leader, the Revolutionary Guard Corps and hardliners.
The greater challenge is replacing Raisi with minimal internal conflict inside the Iranian regime, maintaining the ostracism of reformists and centrists, and suppressing any protests.
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After the disaster, Khamenei assured Iranians that “there will be no disruptions in the country’s work.” How true is that this claim?
The supreme leader’s statement is best understood as a call to Iranians to avoid “disruptions,” given the series of nationwide protests that erupted following the disputed end result of Iran’s 2009 presidential election.
Contrary to many individuals’s expectations, incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the clear winner. Widespread unrest followed hundreds of individuals were arbitrarily arrested and dozens were killed on the streets or died in custody.
Khamenei’s rhetoric can be an “all is well” message, countering the intense economic problems and regional tensions Iran faces. Iran’s economy has been in disrepair for years because of a mix of mismanagement and sanctions. The currency is at A level historical minimumlosing 93% of its value since 2018. Inflation persists officially above 40%. and unofficially much higher. Unemployment can be high, especially among the many younger generation.
The regime continues to suppress protests through detentions and intimidation. However, demands for reform remain widespread. They were aroused by the regime hearing regarding compulsory hijab. The Iranian authorities tried to suppress centrists and reformists, but they faced a pointy response from public opinion criticismincluding former president Hassan Rouhani.
Who will replace Raisi?
If the president dies while in office, Iran’s structure stipulates that the primary vice chairman takes power for a period of fifty days with the consent of the supreme leader. New presidential elections are then held at the top of the transition period. Khamenei has confirmed that the primary vice-president, Mohammad Mokhber, will act because the country’s president until the elections.
The process will likely be an expedited version of the usual procedure in which a 12-member board of guardians will review all applicants and disqualify those it deems unacceptable. This should ensure a contest between the hardliner and the conservative, blocking any influential centrist or reformer.
Various factions in the federal government will maneuver to the advantage of the supreme leader. Raisi’s assumption of office signaled the ascendancy of hardliners throughout the regime, sidelining conservatives. At the moment, nonetheless, there isn’t a clear favorite.
Meanwhile, the speaker of parliament and former presidential candidate Mohammad Qalibaf will be the almost definitely conservative. He has been on the forefront of Iranian politics for 25 years. But he did it too lost in two presidential campaigns and is unacceptable to many hardliners.
What could Raisi’s death mean for stability in the Middle East and beyond?
The regime will need to avoid further turmoil inside the regime while reshuffling the seats of power. This includes the substitute of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who has played a crucial role in attempting to present Tehran’s case to the world and find ways to mitigate the results of Western sanctions.
It stays an open query whether Israel, embroiled in the Gaza war and serious internal tensions around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will return to attacks on Iranian interests akin to murders Tehran’s commanders in Syria and Hezbollah officials in Lebanon.