The fall of President Bashar Assad will not only affect 24 million Syrians who lived – and suffered a big extent – under his brutal rule. An influence can be felt above the border in Lebanon.

The fall of Assad’s government is one other blow to his Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, who was already Encouraging with Israel’s conflict, which weakened its capabilities and decimated his leadership. But many others in Lebanon will be rejoicingespecially 1.5 million Refugees who escaped from Syria Escar Assad and a 13-year civil war.

As Expert in the field of Library history and cultureI believe that waves from Syria needs to be expected. Contemporary stories of each countries are related, and by a 54-year rule, the Assad family has repeatedly intervened in Lebanon-mainly to the detriment of their people, economy and stability.

Hezbollah and assad: mutual relationship

Since its inception in the early Eighties, Hezbollah benefited from the strong support of the Syrian regime. There They were tension moments Certainly between them – especially in the middle of the civil war in Lebanon. But in general, Hezbollah was in a position to depend on Syria for a weaponTraining and easy land Access to Iran.

And this agreement was mutual. When Assad’s rule was questioned in 2011 and the country went to the civil war, Hezbollah fighters He moved to Syria strengthen government troops.

But by becoming the strongest paramilitary being in Lebanon, Hezbollah saw his fortune suffered. The last war with Israel seriously weakened the group and forced her to Acceptance of a weapon suspension agreement This covers the path towards disarmament.

In addition, Lebanese support for Hezbollah modified dramatically, with the group’s open calls to stop her paramilitary activity. The war of the group with Israel cost life 3,700 people in Lebanonand around 1.2 million Lebanese -around one fifth population-internally displaced from their homes. Meanwhile, economic loss Lebanon is estimated in billions of dollars.

Iran, Assad and Hezbollah triangle

It isn’t any accident that the recent progress of the rebels led to the refutation of Assad On the same day, the suspension of Israel-Hezbollah weapons was signed. Hesbollah forces were exhausted, and many of their warriors withdrew from Syria strengthen the southern border of Lebanon.

Syrian rebels selected this moment to hit, knowing that Iran was also too thin with the war of Israel-Hezbollahu to return to help help.

The domino effect caused Iran to unravel “Iran”Resistance axis. “Certainly Tehran lost hard over Syria and Lebanon.

The proven fact that the fall of Assad coincides with the potential end of the Syria civil war and the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah alliance; It is the starting of the Art Nouveau war that helped anchor this three -sided relationship.

In 2011 Arabian spring -Seria pro-democracy and protests of human rights that began in Tunisia-she made to Syria. Anti -ssad protests broke out in Daraa and soon spread to the foremost cities, reminiscent of Homs, Hama and The Capital, Damascus.

Syrian government He answered with brutalityordering soldiers to shoot protesters, while stopping and torturing hundreds of men and boys.

International Outrage appeared. But the Syrian government remained in power with the support of Iran and Hezbollah. In fact, in addition to Hezbollah fighters, the Corps of the Revolutionary Guard Iran also advised Assad and fought alongside his army against the Syrian nation.

For Tehran and his proxy, Hezbollah, this helped in the further “andranization” of the region – that’s, the spread of the ideology of the Iranian revolution and Conversion of Syria and Lebanon to the Shiite states.

Syria is principally a Sunni Muslim. Under the family of Assad ruled it Alawite minority – A gaggle that practices a branch of Shiite Islam. Hezbollah, as a Shiite terrorist group, swore loyalty to the highest leader of Iran in his own 1985 manifesto.

The Palestinian cause was one other uniting factor between these three. The revolutionary Iran Credo after 1979 “Death for Israel” is a sentiment shared by the Assad regime and Hezbollah fighters. However, Assad might have been less loud about this – especially since he tried to barter with Israel over the occupied Golan Heights.

Syria, Iran and Hezbollah Assad weren’t only united by radicalism and their desire to control the region. They also divided economic interests and benefited from trade in illegal drugs, In particular, CaptagonAmphetamine stimulant, which is mass -produced in Syria under the patronage of Assad and Iran. The drug is another and significant source of income at a time when international sanctions were bitten.

With the help of Hezbollah and his control over the airport and Lebanon’s seaport, the drug has turn into widely available in the Persian Gulf. Its highly addictive nature is an actual threat in the Arab world, and Assad used it to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia Restoration of membership in Syria in the Arab League In 2023, in return, the Syrian regime agreed to redirect drug trafficking elsewhere.

Assad’s heritage

Along with the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the fall of the Syrian regime, the region’s “ianization” is no less than detained.

Nevertheless, 54 years of family rule of Assad in Syria left a protracted trace of destruction in neighboring Lebanon.

IN June 1976 Syria sent over 25,000 soldiers Above the border to place an end to the Lebanese civil war. His presence was to be temporary, but was prolonged to over 4 many years.

Before the Lebanese civil war ended in 1991, Syria took complete control over Lebanon territory, in addition to national and international matters. Serious violations of human rights, including disappearance, illegal detention, torture and torture, have been reported Murder of political characters and journalists.

In February 2005, Lebanese Prime Minister Rafot Hariri – which publicly opposed the Syrian hegemony in Lebanon – he was murdered in an attack in which Assad and Senior Syrian officers They were strongly involved.

The murder caused Cedar revolutionWhen tons of of hundreds of Lebanese inhabitants got here out into the streets, demanding the immediate departure of Syrian forces.

Although Syrian forces left Lebanon, the Syrian regime continued to interfere in the country’s policy through Hezbollah, which transformed right into a political and military organization and entered the government in 2008.

From that moment, Hezbollah would block every decision that didn’t serve the interests of Syria and Iran. For example, Hezbollah and his allies vetoed every presidential candidate who didn’t support the Syrian regime – a politician who fell into Lebanon in the prolonged Presidential vacuum.

Uncertain future

While Hezbollah can proceed to operate in Lebanon and under the umbrella of Iran, the fall of Assad signifies that it’s devoid of deliveries.

Without Syria, Hezbollah doesn’t have quick access to Iranian fighters and weapons – and the newly signed suspension of weapons between Lebanon and Israel confirms the commitment of Lebanon in A UN resolution Calling for disarming Hezbollah.

And even though it isn’t clear what New Syria will appear to be, no less than at the moment the populations of Lebanon and Syria – they each suffered under brutal rule and abuse of Hezbollah – they can enjoy after the departure of a person answerable for so many pain.

After greater than a decade of the brutal Civil War of Islamist fighters, it took only 11 days to survive Syria and overthrow the Bashar Al-Assad regime. The offensive, which was conducted by the Turkish Syrian (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) National Army, forced many residents of Western Syria to flee from homes in search of security.

Meanwhile, others have a good time the tip of the five -year rule of the Assad family. There They are long queues People and cars on the Library border border, when displaced people return to Syria, and on the border with Turkey there are also significant grubs.

According to Ali Yerlikay, the Minister of the Interior of Turkey, the monthly average of Syrians crossing the border he almost doubled In sooner or later after overthrowing Assad.

While these events were developing, the situation of a de facto self-governing region in the northeastern a part of the country called the autonomous administration of northeastern Syria (also generally known as Rojava) didn’t pay much attention to international media. The SNA rebel offensive is successful in the region.

The region management body has called the autumn Assada a significant moment and expressed hopes for a latest chapter in Syria. And the powerful armed groups of Rojaavy, the units of the People’s Protection (YPG) and the democratic forces supported by the USA (SDF), even have each Expressed optimism About the autumn of the Assad regime.

These statements reflect a common sense of hope and commitment to constructive dialogue and cooperation in shaping the longer term of Syria. But Rojava, which was a lighthouse Kurdish complacency And democratic management from the start of 2010, when several districts have announced autonomy, is threatened with each internal and external forces.

There are tensions between the SDF and Arabic tribes over the political influence and abundant natural resources of Rojava. In Manbija, a city west of the Euphrates River in northern Syria, there was Heavy clashes Between SDF and Sna from the start of the rebel offensive. SDF successfully informed rejecting many attacks, but eventually withdrew from the town.

Apparently also offensive Began in Kobanewhich is perceived because the birthplace of the Rojav Revolution and a symbol of Kurdish resistance. The city is the place of the important thing battlefield, where Kurdish fighters defeated the Islamic State (IS) in 2014.

In other cities in the region, corresponding to Raqqa, Tabqa and the important thing desert city of Deir Ez-Zor, Arabs are demographically more quite a few than the Kurds. The way forward for cooperation between two groups in these areas dominated by Arabs stays uncertain.

Over the past week, SDF fighters captured Deir Ez-Zor and took control of the primary border crossing of Syria with Iraq. Recently, nevertheless, there There were reports suggesting that HTS warriors gain control over the town.

Externally, Turkish military operations geared toward weakening the region’s Kurdish control are a constant threat to Rojava. Türkiye perceives SDF and YPG as an extension of the forbidden party of Kurdistan staff and motion to stop the Kurdish autonomous region along its border to acquire political status that Türkiye perceives as a direct threat to its national security.

So in cooperation with the Allied groups of jihadists, Türkiye has conducted several operations in northern Syria in recent years to ascertain “Safe Zone” push the Kurdish forces. Turkish forces He took control earlier Afrin cities in the northwestern a part of Syria in 2018, which was then under Rojava’s control.

These activities drew international criticism accusations violations of human rights and war crimes. Sweden with several other European countries, He stopped weapon trade with Turkey in 2019. However, Sweden later He raised the restrictions During the technique of submitting an application for attachment to NATO.

Türkiye plays a key role of an ally for the movements of the Syrian opposition, especially Sna. Served as a very important support system for rebel forces throughout the last offensive, like this He did it consistently in the past.

Rojaava’s future is predicated on his ability to maneuver in complex dynamics. Maintaining US support is crucial since the American military presence is deterrent to Turkish aggression. However, the region must also cope with internal divisions and work on greater Arab-Rurdic reconciliation to make sure long-term stability.

Path forward

Opposition groups in Syria are very fragmented and we don’t yet understand how power struggles arise amongst them. We know that HTS and its leader Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani have historical connections with Al-Qaeda and IS. The group is now presented in a more moderate light, but there may be a lot of uncertainty.

On the opposite hand, Rojava fought against IS, Jazides were protected during a genocidal campaign against them and established humanitarian corridors to evacuate them and strives to implement a multi -ethnic society based on direct democracy, ecology and sex equality.

Rojava social contract card He protects these principles and provides the representation and rights of Kurds, Arabs, Jazydów, Syriaj-Casyrians, Turkmens, Armenians and others.

It is troublesome that despite the apparent “confidence” in Jolani – a character who He was once marked “The most sought after terrorist in the world” – as a moderate revolutionary leader, since its establishment has not been recognized by the democratic Ryjaava model.

Instead of receiving the merit of support, Rojava is concentrated on questions on the priorities of the international community and the prospect of sustainable peace in the region. The Syrian nation, in all its diversity and voices, must determine the ways of constructing a really integration and democratic Syria, in which all people can coexist in the room.

What is the most significant thing to grasp US involvement in Syria?

US involvement in Syria reaches at the very least 2011 when this Arabian springProtest movement in the Middle East in the Middle East, broke out and spread to Syria.

This caused the brutal repression of the Syrian government, led by the Syrian leader Al-Assad. Some protesters then became part of the rebel groups in Syria and fought with the Assad government, resulting from this In the civil war. The United States immediately imposed Heavy financial sanctions About the Syria government.

In 2013 The US began to supply weapons to some groups of rebels that were based on the Assad government. This 12 months, the Syrian army also exceeded “Red line“This was established by the then President Barack Obama with Chemical weapon against civilians. Despite the pressure on implement the red lineObama decided to not intervene when Assad agreed to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons – the commitment that Assad didn’t fully live to.

In 2014, a gaggle of Islamic State, often generally known as ISIS or is, He took over the parts of Syria. The United States has deployed forces directly The fight is in 2015. Until 2019, the US has seriously weakened, and the US reduced its presence. The United States has never accepted the Asssad’s Government ID, but largely gave up Assad’s rule.

What does US involvement appear to be now?

The United States remained involved in Syria in several ways. First, yes About 900 soldiers arranged in some distant parts of Syria To prevent ISIS regrouping.

Secondly, the United States gave greater than USD 1 billion for military assistance for more moderate Armed groups that resisted the control by the Assad government. A big part of this assistance went to the Syrian democratic forces, the military force led by the Kurds, a minority ethnic group that controls the north -eastern Syria and closely cooperated with the US in the fight against ISIS, stained with opposition to Assad.

Thirdly, the United States has retained severe financial sanctions against the Syrian government of 2011 and the fourth, United States providing humanitarian aid for suffering Syrians from the 13-year civil war of the country.

The United States has not played a direct role in the recent overthrow of the Syrian government. Syrian groups of rebels that overthrew Assada Supported mainly by Turkeywhich goals to weaken the Syrian branch of one other Kurdish group called Kurdistan Workers’ Party. Türkiye perceives this group as a threat control your individual Kurdish population.

What does the overthrow of Assad’s government mean for the USA?

The United States doesn’t yet make any decisive judgments about whether this transformation can be good for the United States, the fall of Assad opens the possibility of improving relations between the US and Syria, but it’s going to largely rely on the latest leadership in Syria.

Hayat Tahrir al-ShamOr HTS, a gaggle that led the overthrow of Assad, ruled an authoritative way in the area of ​​Syria, which they’re already controlling.

ISIS is also constant care of the USA. It hits the goals of ISIS In recent days, trying to stop ISIS from gaining land after the fall of the Assad government.

What do Trump’s election to the US involvement in Syria mean?

Trump took the position of Syria A multitude and that this is not America’s problem. During his first term, Trump wanted to drag out all of them will remain US soldiers from Syriaand his advisers convinced him Keep a small number of soldiers there. Whether latest Syria leaders act in an authoritarian way will probably not matter to Trump.

But Trump is definitely pro -Israel and possibly won’t have an issue with Israel conducting strikes in Syria.

Under Trump’s rule, the United States will probably not be the major player shaping the events in Syria, but I feel that in the interest of the nation he’ll remain involved, because what is happening in Syria affects the rest of the Middle East – and thus, the USA