Since the start of the war in Gaza, Israel, Hezbollah and other armed groups in Lebanon I replaced it almost 5,000 attacks across the border. Lebanon is drawn right into a war it cannot afford. However, the country’s weak state has little power against militias operating on its territory.

String overlapping crises over the past decade, combined with political paralysis and an economic recession that has paralyzed much of the country and deepened poverty, has brought Lebanon to the brink of collapse. In the Lebanese capital, Beirut, the shortage of state authority has led some communities to take security matters into their very own hands.

In the Christian neighborhood of Achrafieh in East Beirut, a neighborhood watch initiative formed to reassure residents concerned about crime led to the formation of a non-public militia called (Soldiers of God). Soldiers of God is a far-right group composed primarily of young working-class men who see themselves as “Guardian angel”patrolling the streets at night to keep the community secure.

Beirut is already a witness rise in self-securitisation in places under Hezbollah’s influence and control. The rebellion of the Soldiers of God raised fears that Achrafieh would join this trend, evoking similarities with the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990), when the state collapsed, militants controlled the streets and Beirut was ideologically divided right into a Christian east and a Muslim west.

When the Soldiers of God go on patrol, this claims to achieve this in defense of the Christian lands of Lebanon against the “danger of Islamism” as well “criminals” and “aliens”.

In Lebanon, people often speak about these “others”. Syrian refugees. Lebanon hosts the world’s highest number of refugees per capita and per square kilometer. For Soldiers of God, the “other” is any non-Christian, but especially supporters of Hezbollah and its Shiite Muslim political partner, the Amal Movement. The speaker of Lebanon’s parliament and a serious figure within the country’s political establishment, Nabih Berri, has led the Amal movement since 1980.

Although the Lebanese civil war officially resulted in 1990, religious and political divisions still exist. In October 2021, members of the Lebanese Forces party collided with Hezbollah and Amal supporters in Beirut, leading to the deaths of at the very least six people. The Lebanese Forces, formed in 1976 because the country descended into civil war, are a Christian political party aligned against Hezbollah and have the most important bloc within the Lebanese parliament with 128 members.

Soldiers of God have played a partial role in stoking sectarian fears and prejudices before. Military Intelligence Investigations showed that members of the group wrote religious slogans and drew crosses in lots of Christian neighborhoods of Beirut the night before the fighting broke out.

The growing polarization in Lebanon has much in common with the polarization of Hezbollah “offensive” war with Israel. According to Soldiers of God, Hezbollah is putting at stake not only the great of the Christian districts of Lebanon by opening a front with Israel, but the great of your complete country.

In January 2024 Soldiers of God took over the flight screens at Beirut’s Rafic Al-Hariri Airport to assert his position as Lebanon’s defender. It displayed a message warning Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah opposes entering war with Israel. The message was:

In the name of God and the nation. Rafic Al-Hariri Airport doesn’t belong to Iran or Hezbollah. Hassan Nasrallah, you is not going to find support for those who curse Lebanon with a war you can’t address. We is not going to fight on anyone’s behalf. You took our port, now you’ll take our airport because of the arms transfer. Let the airport be free of you.

Since then, the division between Lebanon’s Christian and Shiite communities has deepened he grew much morewhich culminated within the assassination of Pascal Suleiman, a senior figure from the Lebanese Forces party, on April 7.

Enforcing division

The rebellion of the Soldiers of God recalls darker times in Lebanon’s history, when militias imposed territorial divisions along religious lines.

In December 2022, young men on motorcycles carrying Moroccan flags bits within the Achrafieh area by members of the Soldiers of God. The men celebrated the historic qualification of the Moroccan national football team to the semi-finals of the FIFA World Cup in Qatar. As they traveled from west Beirut, a Muslim-dominated neighborhood, they were mistaken for members of Hezbollah and Amal.

The group also uses violence against people it believes threaten traditional Lebanese values ​​and customs. Just a few months earlier, in June 2022, the group vandalized the billboard in Achrafieh, which was decorated with flowers and a rainbow flag to have a good time Pride Month.

Later that day, Soldiers of God posted a video online accusing the LGBTQ+ community of promoting Satanism and endangering their children. And in August 2023, so will the group members attacked an LGBTQ+ friendly bar in Beirut, disrupting a drag queen performance and locking people within the bar while chanting homophobic slurs.

There is real concern growing violence, especially because the Soldiers of God will not be alone. The group has reported annual budget price £260,000 and is closely linked to and funded by: there have been warlords and militia who took part within the civil war in Lebanon.

The Soldiers of God are taking advantage of divisions in Lebanese society to promote their cause. Lebanon’s future is uncertain, however the state’s declining presence and capability have paved the way in which for a return to sectarian conflict as armed groups take security matters into their very own hands.

On a warm April evening in 2023, I sat outside a café in the Christian Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City, having a drink with friends. An exuberant American tourist sat at the table next to us and excitedly told us about his day.

Apparently, a likelihood meeting with the Patriarch of Jerusalem led him to go to the Church of the Holy Sepulcher for the Holy Fire ceremony, the most significant event of the 12 months in Orthodoxy.

This scene was repeated by countless people in countless places in the city. The details change, but the meaning of their authentic, spiritual experience was carried by all of them.

The importance of the “Holy Land” for the faithful cannot be underestimated. It has been considered one of the most significant pilgrimage sites in the world for over 2,000 years. Nowadays, this has created the basis for a lucrative tourism industry that’s value mentioning $8.46 billion (£6.73 billion) for Israel i $1 billion for Palestine in 2019

However, since October, tourists haven’t been able to reach this region in any respect. Most major airlines they suspended travel to Israel over security concerns, as governments around the world have done deliberate its residents against traveling there. Standard travel insurance packages now not provide cover for people traveling to the region.

In addition to economic development, tourism plays a significant political role in the region. The Zionist movement that led to the founding of Israel in 1948 recognized early on that tourism was a wonderful tool for fostering global connections and inspiring immigration to support Zionist settlement in Palestine.

This phenomenon has only grown and expanded over the a long time. More recently, this has manifested itself in an expansive industry of pro-Israel evangelical Christian tours and free tours offered to young people from the Jewish diaspora.

I lived in Jerusalem for the first half of 2023, researching the political significance of tourism in the region. I interviewed individuals who work, promote and are influenced by tourism activities. It was a turbulent period with increased violence, yet pilgrims and tourists continued to flock to the region as the global tourism industry continued to recuperate from the pandemic.

Now, as I watch Christmas, Ramadan, Passover and Easter pass by, I’m wondering how much has modified in only one 12 months. After seven months of intense violence in the region, the destruction of Gaza, the very visible and ongoing suffering of the Palestinians, and the International Court of Justice ruling that Israel’s actions in Gaza may be considered genocide, it is unimaginable to return to normal.

Grinding to a stop

Travel agencies in Palestine and Israel are accustomed to waxing and waning violence, resulting in uncertain revenues due to canceled trips. They normally operate with a reserve of capital that enables them to survive these difficult months.

However, several of my interlocutors revealed that these reserves were completely depleted during the pandemic. Many firms are currently in a very precarious situation with no safety net as the industry grinds to a halt.

Some responded quickly, offering tours diplomats and journalists – the only foreign guests staying in the region. However, this will do little to stem the hemorrhaging industry and plenty of, if not most, of those firms will stop to exist when tourism is finally able to return to the region.

Israel’s most steadfast allies are also starting to waver in their support for an attack on Gaza. Mass student protests at infamously pro-Israel American universities, calls for boycotts, divestment and sanctions, in addition to for vulgar support and solidarity on social media movementmake the future prospects for Israel’s tourism industry bleak, each as a income and as a Zionist political tool.

There will finally be a tourist audience in the future. However, this audience’s openness to the Zionist narrative is questionable.

International supporters of Israel have gotten aware brutal settler-colonial aspect of Zionism. Many are being swayed to support Palestine, together with vast swaths of the world’s population who, before October, had never considered Israel or Palestine. And the average tourist or pilgrim is now aware of propaganda language and storytelling that he would previously have accepted at face value and never questioned.

The global surge in support for the Palestinians may extend to those willing to visit and meet them to show solidarity and see the suffering and oppression with their very own eyes. Israel has effectively destroyed considered one of its historically simplest tools for continuing its settlement project by destroying Gaza in front of the world.

The International Criminal Court may issue arrest warrants for each Israeli and Hamas leaders within the wake of Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks on Israeli civilians and the next Israeli invasion of Gaza, according to Israeli officials and what The New York Times and other sources mass media called “foreign officials”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is one of them individuals who may be named within the arrest warrant Already this week, the Israeli every day Haaretz reported April 28, 2024.

The ICC, an independent tribunal based in The Hague, Netherlands, prosecutes genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes – the latter legal term which incorporates attacks on civilians and other crimes. violations of martial lawSuch as blocking humanitarian aid.

Karim Khan, the present chief prosecutor of the ICC, announced in November 2023 that he would launch an investigation into Hamas and Israeli suspects following the Hamas attack in Israel that killed 1,200 people and kidnapped tons of more, and Israel’s subsequent war in Gaza, which has thus far over 34,000 Palestinians died.

ICC criminal investigation appears right after the famous genocide case which South Africa brought against Israel in December 2023 before one other international tribunal called the International Court of Justice.

But these investigations and courts are different. Although the ICC may conduct trials of those allegedly answerable for criminal violations of international humanitarian law, the International Court of Justice is the part of the United Nations that adjudicates civil and civil disputes. cannot accuse individuals of crimes.

How human rights researcher and international courts, I consider it is vital to emphasize that international criminal tribunals do not have enforcement powers of their very own. And meaning they could never be able to arrest suspects or bring them to justice.

Therefore, these international courts have had mixed experiences in holding senior political and military leaders accountable for his or her crimes. Only when political leaders lose power is there a likelihood that their governments will arrest them and hand them over to international courts for prosecution.

A challenge for international courts

Take the instance of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been opposing an ICC arrest warrant since March 2023 for allegedly committing war crimes throughout the Ukrainian war. As long as Putin stays in power, there’s virtually no likelihood of his arrest.

International criminal tribunals just like the ICC have a two-fold problem. First, these tribunals haven’t any real international police force to perform arrests.

Second, governments implicated within the alleged crimes of their leaders often try to obstruct the work of international tribunals by not handing over suspects and trying to attack the tribunals as biased.

The problem of enforcement, as my scholarship has showncould allow the leaders of a robust country like Israel to avoid arrest warrants issued by international courts – provided the suspects remain within the country.

Israel is in this case is not a celebration to the ICC, meaning that he has never agreed to abide by his judgments or arrest orders and does not otherwise recognize the court’s jurisdiction. The United States and other countries, including Qatar, where some Hamas leaders live, are also not members of the ICC and haven’t any legal obligation to make arrests.

This signifies that if the ICC issues an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, he will be able to go to meet US leaders in Washington without fear of arrest. But he could not easily go to European Union countries, all of that are members of the ICC, and would be forced to arrest Netanyahu.

It is unclear what precisely the ICC’s alleged allegations might include. However, Netanyahu and other Israeli political and military leaders may now avoid traveling to ICC member states in order not to risk arrest if a warrant is issued.

All this may also contribute to Israel’s development further international isolation and pressure on his conduct throughout the war.

Prosecuting Hamas leaders involved within the October 7 atrocities could similarly stigmatize Hamas internationally.

The United States, which at times strongly opposed the ICC, but additionally supported the ICC the court on an ad hoc basis, he warned that issuing arrest warrants for Israeli leaders could jeopardize a possible ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

Milosevic’s fall from power

Not all arrest warrants fail.

Attempt Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic from the mid-2000s shows how international tribunals might be able to prosecute alleged war criminals after they lose power.

In 1993, while the war in Bosnia was still ongoing, the UN Security Council established a special court, called the Tribunal for International Criminal Tribunal for the previous Yugoslaviato address crimes committed during regional wars.

This court indicted Serbian nationalist leader Slobodan Milosevic for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in 1999 throughout the ongoing war in Kosovo. Milosevic’s alleged crimes in Kosovo include a large ethnic cleansing campaign against Kosovo Albanians, the country’s largest ethnic group. Milosevic later faced additional charges for alleged crimes in Bosnia and Croatia.

However, on the time of the indictment, Milosevic was still in power and his government protected him from arrest. Milosevic lost the presidential election in late September 2000 and after widespread protests he gave in.

The United States promised the brand new democratic government in Serbia significant economic aid to speed up post-war recovery. This helped persuade the Serbian government to achieve this arrest Milosevic and then move it to international tribunal in June 2001.

A possible handbook for the leaders of Israel and Hamas

Milosevic trial was launched in February 2002but he died in prison in 2006, shortly before the tip of the trial.

His trial continues to show that, under certain circumstances, international courts can overcome their lack of enforcement powers and bring high-level suspects to justice. International political pressures and incentives often play a pivotal role on this process.

As long as any political and military leaders facing potential arrest remain in power, it is probably going that no amount of political pressure or guarantees will persuade Israel, Qatar or other countries to cooperate with the international court and hand over any leaders in the event that they are indicted.

History also shows that even if Hamas leaders are overthrown or Israeli leaders lose the elections, there isn’t any guarantee that potential suspects will ever face the ICC.

In Israel, there’s broad public opposition to the ICC, which Netanyahu has attacked prior to now for “pure anti-Semitism”, will probably proceed. Moreover, at the very least within the short term, it’s unlikely that the United States will apply to its close ally, Israel, the identical pressure that it successfully applied to Serbia after Milosevic fell from power.

Kahn did not comment on reports of possible arrest warrants. Nevertheless, Israeli officials they went on the offensive in an apparent attempt to gain American support to prevent ICC motion.