President Donald Trump Announced during the stay in Saudi Arabia May 14, 2025 that the United States Raise sanctions against Syria. The phrase was a huge victory of the government of the President of Syria Ahmad Al-Sharaa, when he tries to consolidate power for almost six months after the stunning movement of his movement of his long-time Bashar Al Assad regime.

But it was not in lobbying in Syria by itself behalf. By announcing a change of politics, Trump largely assigned a change to his Saudi hosts and also Türkiye. Both nations are Assad’s long-term enemies who quickly advocated Al-Sharaa and force the US to normalize connections with the latest Syria government.

Türkiye, whose resources and earth were strongly affected by instability in neighboring Syria, was especially instrumental Pushing Trump Accept the Post-Assad government, even compared to Israel’s reservations.

How Experts from diplomacy AND Turkish law and politicsWe consider that the development in Syria indicates the Ponadzorska role that a small and average power in regional and international matters can play. This is very true in the Middle East, where world powers, comparable to the USA decreasing and sometimes unpredictable influence.

Opening in Syria

After 13 years destructive civil warSyria is facing a lot of large challenges, including the direct task of constructing the state. Violence is not only willingly visible in Syria itself – as recently Killing AlawitesIN allegedly By government forces or fighters adapted to them, they showed – but the neighboring Israel also has also Positions attacked repeatedly in Syria to weaken the latest government. For the Israeli government, strong, militarized Syria could be a threat, especially in relation to the unstable border on Golan Heights.

Despite the problems that confront the latest government of Syria, she has Nevertheless, it was demonstrated The extraordinary ability to obtain international acceptance-a significant fact, making an allowance for the leadership of Al-Sharaa It is related to Hayat Tahrir Al-Shambefore Linked Al-Qaeda group as one of the foreign terrorist organizations in the USA since 2014.

Türkiye presses its influence

In this context, Turkey’s hand was particularly essential.

The office, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, has taken over time he pressed American president to raise sanctions. Two men hit strong relationship During the first administration of Trump with the President of the USA declaring as “a big fan“Turkish leader.

Diplomacy from behind the scenes in Turkey can be seen as part of a wider effort to fill the vacuum left with the fall of Assad. Doing this not only strengthens Erdogan’s position as a regional player, but also develops his national program.

Türkiye quickly moved on quite a few fronts on the chart of the future Syria course, realizing Economic and safety projects in the country. First of all, Türkiye raised its own Investments in Syria.

Also, because it was Libya AND SomaliaTürkiye has contributed to the training and equipment of latest Syrian security forces.

In the north -eastern Syrian province in Idlib, Türkiye funds education, healthcare and electricity in addition to Turkish lira It is de facto currency in northern Syria.

The roots of these commitments are in the interest of Turkey management of its own security situation.

Since 1984, Türkiye has been fighting Kurdish separatist groups, in particular the Kurdistan of the Workers’ Party or PKK, which is in line with Kurdish Militia YPG In north -eastern Syria – one of the groups that fought with Assad’s forces during the civil war in Syria.

Assad’s fall led Russia from Syria. Meanwhile, Iranian influence also decreased not only as a result of not only Assad’s departure, but also to lowering the military Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon. And USA It doesn’t support anymore Kurdish Militia YPG in north -eastern Syria.

In this void of external influence, Türkiye quickly took advantage of the opportunity to transform the security landscape.

Ankara, who still controls large pieces of territory in the northeast of Syria From the fight against Assad and Syrian Kurdish groups, He agreed to the Syrian set To activate the YPG, armed wing of Kurdish Syrian Democratic Syndrome or SDF to the latest Syrian army.

The Turkish perspective has long been that the fight against PKK can achieve success in the long term with stability in the Syrian land. Now PKK is trying to achieve a room with the Turkish government, but whether SDF in Syria disarms and solves removed from certain. As such, a strong, stable Syrian government, in which the majority of Kurdish majority is accommodated, can be in the best interest of Ankar.

Meanwhile, the success of Al-Sharaa in the reconstruction of Syria after the Civil War would help Turkey on one other front: the issue of Syrian refugees.

Türkiye is currently the host 3.2 million Refugees from Syria – most of each country. The very number and length of the stay of these resettled people burdened the economy and social relations of Turkey, leading to clashes between the Turks and Syrian refugees.

There is also a wide consensus in Turkey that the problem with Syrian refugee in Turkey can only be solved through a comprehensive return strategy.

Although the naturalized Syrians in Turkey are a crucial electoral district at the electoral base of the ruling AK Erdogan party, the only solution provided for currently by President Turkish and his allies is repatriation. For this purpose, the rapid and stable development of infrastructure and housing in Syria is considered obligatory.

Perspectives for small ones

However, Turkey’s strategic probability in Syria is not without a clear risk. The Wtchody of the Israeli army illustrate the challenge that Türkiye stands in developing its own interests in Syria. It is price noting that Trump’s statement regarding sanctions was seemingly announced without knowledge – and Contrary to wishes – Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In addition, Türkiye wants to equalize a growing role in the region to strengthen its position in relation to a long -term dispute in Cyprus. The island, which lies a few hundred miles from the coast of Syria, is divided into two regions, with Greek Cypriots in the south and tearing the Turkish Cypryk north – with Only Türkiye recognizes Self -proclaimed condition in the north. Türkiye is trying to regulate sea jurisdiction in the eastern Mediterranean Agreement with SyriaBut the plan is stuck in a deadline because the European Union supports the position of Greece in Cyprus.

However, Turkish movements in Syria are widely felt elsewhere. Arab nations comparable to Saudi Arabia and Qatar support Post-Assad setting in Syria and see that their very own interests are given along with Turkey, although rivalry The rates are threatened with the Sunni world.

The US will raise sanctions by the US can have long -term political effects exceeding short -term economic effects. Syria has small direct trade In the United States, he only exports his agricultural products and antiques. But the appearance of a political ID and recognition is diplomatic Win for Turkeyand also for Syria. The political opening brings with it The promise of future investments in Syria.

Coping with Syria shows how small Statecraft waters can be marked in their very own way. Days of international affairs dominated by superpowers seem to end – like Many have long anticipated. And in Syria, Türkiye provides a plan on how small they can work in their favor.

The visit of US President Donald Trump in the Arab countries in the Middle East this week generated many offers price many billion dollars. He said that transactions price over $ 1 trillion (USD 1.5 trillion) were signed with the Saudi Arabia itself, although Indeed the sum It might be much lower.

Qatar also placed Order for 210 Boeing aircraftWarta agreement reported $ 96 billion ($ 149 billion). Trump will undoubtedly present these transactions as the most important success for the American industry.

The journey also helped to counteract the fears of withdrawing from the Middle East. For over a decade, the local elites saw Washington’s attention as moving away from the region.

This journey was confirming the meaning of the Middle East – in particular the Persian Gulf region – for US foreign policy. This is a very important signal to send to the Middle East leaders who are coping with competing interests from China and, to a lesser extent, Russia.

And from the political point of view of Trump about the abolition of sanctions for Syria and meeting with a former rebel, currently president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, was very significant-symbolically and practically.

Until recently, Al-Sharaa was mentioned by the United States as a terrorist with USD 10 million ($ 15 million) on the head. However, when his strength removed the dictator Bashar al-Assad from power in December, he was fastidiously welcomed by many in the international community.

The United States has invested significant resources in removing Assad from power, so its fall was a reason to have a good time, even when he got here from the hands of strength, the US recognized terrorists.

This quick return is dizzying. In practice, the removal of sanctions in Syria opens the door to foreign investment in the reconstruction of the country after a long civil war.

It also gives a likelihood for Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in addition to Turkey to expand its influence in Syria at the expense of Iran.

For a leader who presents the creator of the transaction, all this will be considered successful results from a three -day journey.

However, Trump avoided wading diplomatic and political negotiations needed to end Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza and finding a common plane with Iran as part of the nuclear program.

No solution for Palestinians

Trump defeated the ongoing tragedy in Gaza and did not offer any diplomatic plans for the solution to the war that is ending endlessly.

The president did it Pay attention to his desire See the normalization of relations between the Arab countries and Israel, without recognizing a key obstacle.

While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates do not love Hamas, the war in gas and misery brought on by Palestinians prevented them from overlooking this problem. They cannot just hop over the gases to normalize relationships with Israel.

In his first term, Trump hoped that the Palestinian issue may very well be pushed to the side to achieve the normalization of relations between the Arab countries and Israel. This was partly achieved thanks to Abraham Accordsin which ZAA and three other Muslim nations will destroy relations with Israel.

Trump undoubtedly believed that the suspension of Israel-Hamas weapons agreed just before its inauguration-he was the same during the US election campaign.

But after Israel unilaterally broke the suspension of the weapon in March, swearing to the mass bombardment of gauze, he learned how what the Palestinian Palestinian query can’t be easily solved or brushed under the carpet.

Palestinian pursuit of statehood ought to be taken care of as a vital step towards everlasting peace and regional stability.

He said that Trump did not stop in Israel this week. One former Israeli diplomat says This is a sign that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his lever with Trump.

There is nothing that Netanyahu has, what Trump wants, needed or (which) can, unlike, say, Saudis, Cathars (or) Emiratis.

More acute rhetoric for Iran

Trump also had no recent details or initiatives to announce Iranian nuclear conversations, aside from his desire “contract“And his repetition of past threats.

At least 4 rounds of conversations from Iran took place between Iran and the United States. While either side are positive about perspectives, the US administration seems to be divided into the intended result.

A special envoy of the American Middle East Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for complete dismantling of Iran’s ability to enrich uranium As some protection against the potential weapons of the nuclear program.

However, Trump himself was less categorical. Although he called “Total disassembly“Nuclear Iran, he has Also said He is undecided if Iran should have the ability to proceed the civil enrichment program.

Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, although as part of international monitoring, is a red line for the authorities in Tehran – they do not surrender.

It seems that the difference between Iran and the USA has expanded this week Trump’s attack About Iran as the “most destructive strength” in the Middle East. Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi Called Trump’s “pure fraud” and showed us support for Israel as a source of instability in the region.

None of this has developed the prospects of the nuclear agreement. And although his visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Zea were marked by a pump and ceremony, he would not leave a solution to the solution to two prolonged challenges than when he arrived.

Within two weeks from the end of April to the starting of May 2025, Israel began two air attacks allegedly directed at Hezbollah in Lebanon: the first, April 27, I hit the constructing in the southern suburbs of Beirut; second, assault in southern LebanonHe left one dead person and eight others were injured.

While attacks will not be aberration in An extended history of Israel’s military activities In Lebanon, the latest episodes were noteworthy, bearing in mind the context: Israel and Hezbollah were nominally Closed in truce for five months.

As Expert in the field of Library history and cultureI imagine that recent violations clearly show the fragility of this suspension of weapons. But more importantly, they complicate the mission of the Lebanese government consisting in disarming Hezbollahie, a paramilitary group that continues to be a robust force in the country, despite the series of Israeli killings of older members. This task is a skeleton almost 20-12 months UN resolution It was aimed toward bringing a long-lasting room to Lebanon.

A good distance to hang weapons

After Hamas’ attack on Israel, on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah promised Solidarity with Palestinian movement, which caused a series of Tit-For-Tat attacks with Israel, which became a full war in the autumn of 2024.

On October 1, 2024, Israel attacked Lebanon – sixth time from 1978 – to directly confront Hezbollah. This operation led to killing about 3800 Lebanese and displacement of over 1 million civilians. According to the damage to the Lebanon’s economy, it is estimated at USD 14 billion World bank.

Hezbollah lost Many fighters, arsenal and popular support because of this. More importantly, these losses were discredited by the claim of Hezbollah that he could guarantee the territorial integrity of Lebanon towards Israel’s invasion.

The United States and France were mediated cease-fire Between Hezbollah and Israel on November 27, 2024, the contract was partly based on United Nations Security Council resolution 1701which was adopted in 2006 to end the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah. It had resolution as central rules for disarming armed militias, including Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon.

A fireplace of weapons 2024 built at this resolution. This required the withdrawal of Hezbollah behind the Litani River, which in the next point is about 20 miles from North Israel. In return, and until February 2025, Israel was to step by step retreat from Lebanese territories to enable the Lebanese arsenal to take control of areas in the south and confiscate all unauthorized weapons – a nod to the arsenal of Hezbollah.

However, Israel kept The cover of several positions in southern Lebanon After this date and still start attacks on Lebanese soil, The latest is on May 8, 2025..

The challenge of disarming Hezbollah

Despite these violations, the war on a big scale between Israel and Hezbollah didn’t resume. But the next step, a durable room based on the overlapping weapon of Hezbollah, is complicated by a number of aspects, especially the sectarian nature of Lebanese policy.

Since its inception in 1920, the Lebanon’s ordinance has been defined by polarized and formally Sectarian political systemwhich developed the roots of the many years of a civil conflict, which began in 1975. The Israeli invasion series in response to the attacks of Lebanese Palestinian groups, tightened sectarianism and instability.

Hezbollah emerged from this mix and have become a robust force in the late Nineteen Eighties.

. Taive contractEnding the civil war of Lebanon in 1989, formally recognized the state’s right to depend on the Israeli occupation of Lebanese territories – and with it the presence of Hezbollah as a resistance force. There was a restless coexistence between the government and Hezbollah, which frequently spilled into violence, In this assassination of vital public numbers.

Recently, Hezbollah was liable for A two -year political vacuum how he mobilized members Block opposition candidates persistently For a free presidency in the hope of installing a frontrunner who would support his program.

In January 2025, Standoff ended when the Libanian Parliament selected the head of the army Joseph Aun, a Maronite Christian, as a president.

The recognition of Hezbollah and his allies was partly an indication, how much the power of the Shiite militia was reduced by Israel during the conflict.

However, this is also the result of a universal general understanding in Lebanon about the need to end the humanitarian crisis caused by Israel’s war. The recent president brought the very needed hope for a battered land-balanced by quite a few crisis forced 80% of the population to poverty.

But the Presidency of AOUN signals the changing political environment in one other key way; Unlike his predecessors, Aun didn’t support Hezbollah as a legitimate resistance.

In addition, Aun announced its own intentions of disarming the group
and fully implement 1701 resolution.

For this purpose, Aun made impressive profits. According to state officials, the Library Army had until the end of April 2025. Hesbollah infrastructure dismantled over 90% South of the Litani River and took control of these places.

However, the head of Hezbollah, Naim Kassa, stubborn rejects calls for disarmament and integrate group fighters with Lebanese armed forces.

Even in the weakened position, Hezbollah Kassa only believes about his movement, not in the Lebanese state, he can guarantee the safety of Lebanon towards Israel. And violations of Israel’s weapons play only on this narrative.

“We will not let anyone remove Hezbollah’s weapons,” he said Kassiem One last raids afterJourning that the group would pass the weapon provided that Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon and ended its invasion.

The challenge goes forward

However, countries, including the United States and Qatar – not to mention Israel – consider Disarming hezbollah is a preliminary condition each for peace and really needed international help.

And this makes this task difficult. He will likely be aware that international help is desperately needed. But pressing too hard to accommodate the interests of Israel or Hezbollah, respectively, exacerbates national political pressure or threatening future foreign investments.

To even complicate matters, the situation in Lebanon almost doesn’t help develop in neighboring Syria.

The fall of the President of Syria Bashar Assad in December 2024 added one other element of regional uncertainty and fear in Lebanon about further sectarian violence. Although the recent leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, He swore to protect all religious groupsHe was unable to prevent the massacre of civilians Alawite in several coastal cities – an attack that caused a fresh wave Refugees heading towards Lebanon.

Removing Assad was one other blow to Hezbollah, a robust ally Assad, who took advantage of the years of Syrian interference in Lebanon.

Challenge of diplomacy

For now, a return to the war on a full scale in Lebanon doesn’t seem to be on the table.

But what’s going to occur next to Lebanon and Hezbollah is dependent upon many aspects, especially on the state The ongoing war of Israel with gauze And every spill to Lebanon. But the actions of other regional entities, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, are also vital. Will Saudi Arabia be encouraged to the path Normalizing relationships with Israel – The process interrupted by the attack on October 7 – then it could affect Lebanon in some ways.

Any contract with a Saudi perspective would probably have to conclude Solving the issue of Palestinian statehoodtaking one of Hezbollah’s principal complaints. It would probably even have pressure on Lebanon and Israel to find an answer to its long -term border dispute.

Meanwhile, Iran also apparently addresses diplomatic means to solve some of his regional problems, with the emerging movements to each Correct bonds with Saudi Arabia and move forward with a brand new nuclear agreement with the USA Turn away from politics An attempt to impact influence in the entire region by armament groups adapted to Tehran – the first amongst them, Hezbollah.