How does Egypt dependent on the USA?

With time, Egypt received more American foreign help than any country except Israel. Received USD 78 billion for economic assistance and USD 90 billion From 1946.

AND peace agreement In 1979, he ended the war between two countries with Israel. Israeli forces withdrew from the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula. Since then, the US has provided Egypt with a everlasting amount USD 1.5 billion, of which USD 1.3 billion is military assistanceEvery 12 months. Goes to financing the purchase by Egyptian weapons systems from American defense contractors.

Help in the US has been the cornerstone of Egyptian and USA for a long time.

Since 1979, Egypt has been a central pillar of American policy in the Middle East. Military assistance is taken into account essential for the regime in Egypt to adapt to the US interests. At the same time, this assistance is widely perceived as contributing to survival Egyptian authoritarian regime.

But history shows that Egypt can alleviate the potential impact of assist in the US in periods of stressed relationships.

USA He suspended some military help to Egypt after Change in the regime in 2013. At that point, El-Sisi who was Selected president in 2014He received support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. He too Increased weapons import from France and Russia.

After the period of review, the Barack Obama administration published Egypt to preserve the interests of the USA. As US Secretary of State John Kerry once explained:

We receive a refund from this investment, which shouldn’t be irrelevant. The army also helps us to implement safety in Sinai (in Egypt). The army also helps us to implement a room in gas.

If this relationship becomes burdened again, Egypt may learn much more independent. The influence of China in Egypt is developmentAnd the Persia of the Persian Gulf, which enjoy close relations with Sisi, can even resolve to finance.

How did Egypt balance his interests with Arab countries, Israel and the USA?

Signature Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty in 1979 A change in Egyptian foreign policy was marked. The treaty adapted Egypt with the West in the recognition of Israel. This decision, nonetheless, led to the isolation of Egypt in the Arab world and its exclusion from Arab league (This was again adopted in 1989).

When Mohamed Hosni Mubarak It was assumed that power The murder of Anwar El-Sadata in 1981Egypt needed to balance the US partnership, keep peace with Israel and reconcile his relations with the Arab countries.

Egypt condemned Israel’s aggression against Palestinians and against Lebanon in 1982 and 2006 and freeze efforts to normalize relations with Israel. This strengthened its key position in Arab circles without exposing the room with Israel.

Meanwhile, Egypt has helped American military assets in moving through the region, and the oil sailed through the SUEZ channel. He maintained peace and stability with Israel by pressure Palestinian resistance movements in de -escation. This balance act allowed Egypt to change into a mediator between Palestine and Israel.

Egypt under Sisi tried to keep up the balance act. However, the ongoing war in Gaza was intensified by Egypt challenges. These include flights for refugees and instability on its border. The war also threatened the long role of Egypt in the Middle East region.

How did the war in Gaza threatened the act of balance of Egypt?

The starting of the war in Gaza in October 2023 was on the fringe of Egypt. Kair is afraid of the potential strategy of Israel consisting in the forced location of Palestinians on the Sinai Peninsula, which is positioned on its territory. Egyptian officials recognized this scenario as Red line. Kair doesn’t need to be seen as undermining the Palestinian case.

In addition, the Egyptians are afraid that the presence of a significant Palestinian population in Sinai – which connects Africa with Asia, and borders with Israel and Gaza – can transform the region into a region into a region into a region Launchpad for attacks About Israel. This would force Egypt to suppress such activities or retaliation from Israel.

This fear results from Incident from 1955. The Israeli army attacked the Egyptian military camp in the Gaza Strip, which was then subject to Egyptian control. Seventeen soldiers were killed after the Palestinian Izrael fighter killed. The Palestinian transfer plan to Sinai caused protests in the Gaza Strip, bringing the Egyptian army in a direct confrontation with Palestinians.

This historical event still shapes Egyptian foreign policy, which rejects all the transfer of Palestinians to Sinai.

The current war emphasized structural weaknesses in A certain Egyptian economy. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which began in 2024 sharp drop In revenues from the Suez Canal, a critical source of foreign income for Egypt.

Sisi played in European fears that what happened in Gaza could harm Egypt’s economic situation and result in it Mass migration to Europe. But money infusions won’t solve deeply rooted economic challenges that the country faces.

The role of Cairo as a mediator between the West, Israel and the Arab world faces the renovated challenges. Other mediators Rhinitisappeared.

What can affect Egypt’s response to Trump’s proposal to the transfer of Palestinians?

Trump application He places the Egyptian regime in an uncertain position. If Egypt agrees to the Palestinian transfer plan, it will mean a dramatic departure from basic foreign policy. It can even destroy the dissatisfaction between his population.

Rejection of proposals would charge Egypt’s relations, potentially undermining support for the SISI regime, which can then be trying to find help from other countries.

The conflict in Gaza emphasizes the historical and political entanglement of Egypt in the Palestinian issue.

What is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has its roots In the early stages of the civil war in Syria, which began in 2011 as a preferred rebellion against the autocratic government of Assad.

The group was created As a branch of the Nusra Front, the official Al-Qaeda Association in Syria. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham was initially recognized as the effectiveness of the fight and commitment to the global ideology of jihadists or the establishment of strict Islamic rule throughout the Muslim world.

For a change in 2016, Nusra Front publicly cut ties with al-Qaeda And he adopted the recent name Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, which implies “front for the conquest of the left.”

The following yr, it merged with several other factions in the Syrian War to become Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham or “Organization of Lewant’s liberation.”

This rebranding was geared toward moving away from the global al-Qaeda jihadist program, which limited the group’s appeal in Syria. Allowed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Focus on issues Specific for Syrians, equivalent to local management, economic issues and humanitarian aid.

Despite these changes, the basic ideology of Hayat Tahrira Al-Sham is still rooted in jihadism, with the foremost purpose of overthrowing the Assad government and establishing Islamic rule in Syria.

Who is al-Golani? How does the group’s central success have?

Abu Mohammed al-Golani Born Ahmed Al-Sharaa In 1982 in Saudi Arabia.

Al-Golani spent early years in Damascus, Syria after his family returned from Saudi Arabia in 1989. His profession of jihadists began in Iraq, where he joined the fighters compatible with Al-Qaeda later The invasion of the USA in 2003.

In 2011, under the direction of an Iraqi fighter, and then-al-Qaeda at Iraq’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Al-Golani was designed to establish a front of the Nusra in Syria.

The group quickly became a robust force in the civil war in Syria.

This is under the leadership of al-Golani Hayat Tahrir al-Sham He tried to introduce As pragmatic, less focused on global jihada, and more on issues related to management in the Idlib region, the largest rebel fortress in Syria.

This change of strategy is part of Al-Golani’s efforts to remodel his national and global image because of the jihadist leader right into a more politically profitable figure in Syrian policy.

The shift of Al-Golani towards a more pragmatic approach, especially after 2017, was crucial for the help of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham Territories and providing itself as a regional ruling force. His last moves, equivalent to adoption more moderate Persona and engaging in traditional public service reflect the central role of Al-Golani in the army and the political evolution of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham-extinguishing the group of power and its efforts in obtaining ID card and international ID.

How did the group become the foremost force in Syria?

To maintain power over controlled territories, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham used a method mix including the establishment of management systems that might ensure stability and services, while legitimizing their control in the eyes of local population.

Aiming to expand and take a bigger territory, the group’s leaders got here to the conclusion required To gain a global community to reduce international opposition and effectively cooperate with a broader Syrian revolutionary movement.

This included cooperation with other entities in Syria, geared toward presenting a united front, which can be more tasty for international observers and potential allies. To do that locally, hayat tahrir al-sham brought many Groups in Syria under his control. Regional and international transformed his image through public relations campaigns, equivalent to engaging in social services.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was since 2017 dominant strength in IdlibWhich, after the government forces, gained control over Aleppo in December 2016, became the last necessary bastion for various groups of rebels.

Over the years, the group has recorded control in the region by functioning as a quasi-eNmutmentProvision of civil services and supervision Local matters – equivalent to controlling motorways and collecting obligations in the field of transport transport – Despite the reports human rights violations.

In recent years, propaganda Hayat Tahrir al-Sham emphasized Protection of Syrian territory and his people against the Assad government.

It helped the group strengthen your position amongst local communities and other rebel groups.

Trying to proceed to burn his image, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham increased public relations efforts, each at home and abroad. For example, he has involved with international media and humanitarian organizations to barter – and filming – help supplies to the areas that rules.

Hayat Tahrir al-sham helped Get local supportpositioning as a defender of Sunni Muslim interests.

Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham strengthened his military abilities Establishing the Military Academy, reorganizing its units in a more conventional military structure and creating specialized forces expert in the performance of coordinated and strategic attacks. The recent advance seems proof that this strategy has paid off.

What does the USA take into consideration the group and al-Golani?

The USA has long Listed al-golani As a specially designated global terrorist and Nusra front as a foreign terrorist organization.

In May 2018, the US Department of State expanded This is a designation covering Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. As a result of these markings, the group and its members encounter legal restrictions, travel bans, freeze assets and banking restrictions.

In addition, the State Department Awards for justice The program is Offering as much as USD 10 million To get details about Al-Golani.

However, the news circled that there have been the United States considering Removing the prize for $ 10 million per leader Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, while Great Britain is Thinking about deleting the group from the terrorist list.

What happens if Al-Golani appears as a post-assad leader?

First of all, we should always notice that these are very early days and stays unclear what Syria will appear to be.

But based on my years, studying Islamic history and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, I’m able to risk several educated guesses. Historically, Islamic empires used a transparent management framework to administer their expansion and administration, which can inform about the approach of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham to reflect these successful strategies.

First of all, I believe Al-Golani probably strives for authentic religious leadership, positioning as a pacesetter whose personal piety and compliance with Islamic principles are according to the religious sentiments of the population.

This can be supplemented by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, emphasizing the role of Sunni Islam in state functions in Syria and integrating religious legal practices with national laws.

Similarly to the situated scale, an efficient administration can become the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham cornerstone. For example, in Idlib, the group established tax systems and community involvement. This is obligatory to construct trust, especially amongst previously marginalized groups.

In addition, allowing some autonomy to have regions in Syria, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham can alleviate the risk of anxiety, balancing strict Islamic law enforcement agencies with cultural and ethnic diversity in Syria.

In general, if Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham at Al-Golani tried to direct the creation of a brand new Syria government, we can expect a management approach, which goals to mix traditional Islamic management and a contemporary ship, attempting to stabilize and harmonize the various and war of the war.

However, the controversial status of the group and the history of combat operations can be serious challenges in terms of universal recognition of international and internal support.

At the starting of December 2024, Hamas announced a serious license: it was prepared for everlasting future management From Gaza to the unity of the Palestinian Committee, working along with his foremost political rival, Fatah, to create a body.

Fatah, party President of Palestinian Autonomy Mahmoud AbbasFrom then on, he expressed hesitation before such an agreement – with which he could be battling Israel’s strict opposition And probably also the USA. . But the proven fact that Hamas would hit such a fraction agreement He took the weapon For the right to rule, gauze indicates primarily the weakened position of the combat group after greater than a 12 months of the destructive war of Israel in Gaza.

Last Israel Weapon suspension agreement In Lebanon, he damaged Hamas’s perspectives much more, limiting the direct support of Hezbollah in Gaza, and as for Iran – leaving him much more isolated.

Hamas, trimmed on all pages, from my observations as Palestinian policy expertHe modified the differential account for the world of war after gas. The proven fact that Egypt has pressed the Fatah-Hamas contract is also noteworthy, because what ultimately goes through in terms of gauze management, probably is dependent upon the wishes of the rule in Cairo and Israel, from which each sees gauze as a yard of its national security.

Egyptian plan for Gaza

Egypt, with silent support from the United States, focused on what the future Palestinian political agreement in Gaza could appear like. An try to solve this vacuum of security and management, Egypt he convened leaders Both about Fatah and Hamas traffic in the hope of making a management committee to take over the management of gauze after the war.

In Cairo, Egyptian mediators proposed to determine the Social Support Committee, which consists of Palestinian professionals and technocrat who should not related to Fatah or Hamas. Abbas, who as the leader of the Palestinian authority has the authority of management on the West Bank, is subject to Israeli approval you’ve gotten to verify Committee.

The rapid acceptance of the Egyptian formula by Hamas indicates a group standing in the face of a completely different security and organizational environment than before the escalation of the conflict with Israel.

Moving regional dynamics

When Hamas began his attacks on October 7, 2023, yes, knowing that he could depend on energetic military support from Hesbollah allies in neighboring Lebanon and ongoing financial and diplomatic protection from Iran.

Fast forward 14 months position of the so -called Tehran’s “resistance” looks rather more fragile. Hezbollah and the Israeli months of violence in the Tit-For-Tat along the Israeli-Library border intensified to the full war that Israel saw Expand your brutal military campaign to southern Lebanon. Hezbollah emerged from this fight seriously wounded, having He lost many members His leadership for Israeli bombs.

Another suspension of weapons from November 26 effectively pulled Hezbollah out of the conflict in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Iran, who mentioned the rounds of rocket salvos with Israel, has to date eagerly ordered a direct confrontation with Israel with Hamas and Hezbollah replacements, attempting to avoid long -term military involvement with Israel.

After limiting this regional military support, Hamas also stands in the face of a modified diplomatic landscape.

From 2012, Qatar hosted the political leader of Hamas on the basis of a contract with the United States. Since then, the small nation of the Persian Gulf acted as a mediator between Hamas and Israel and the United States, which refuse to barter with the group directly.

But at the starting of November Qatar He announced that he was hanging His role in mediation in peace conversations in Gaza, citing dissatisfaction with this process, though suggested Conversations may be recovery And that it mediated again.

In any case, American officials have recently forced a runny nose Snapshot of his political office HamasAnd the political agents of Hamas remained there Apparently it expanded to Turkey.

Qatar also looks at the modified American political scene in which they’re the upcoming Republican Congress and President-Elek Donald Trump It probably exerts an excellent tougher line About Hamas having any political base outside of gauze.

Decimated, each military and politically

In addition to growing insulation, Hamas also suffered deep operational damage during the war in Gaza.

The recent Israeli killing of Hamas Yahya Sinwar leader caused a vacuum at the very top. It happened after Israel has already killed most of the higher military and political leadership Hamas in Gaza, not to say well -known political leaders from outside Gaza, such as the political leader Hamas Ismail Haniyeh, which was murdered in July in Iran.

It is not even clear who creates Hamas leadership in Gaza since December 2024, apart from brother Sinwar, Mohammed, who is a member of the Hamas military wing. It is also unclear whether Hamas members may even communicate with leaders.

For now, the outstanding leader of Hamas Khalil Al-Hayya was involved in talks with Fatah in Egypt. However, the executive committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organization – which Fatah is the dominant faction – rejected the Egyptian proposal.

This doesn’t mean that the proposal is necessarily dead in water – only that Egypt may have to cooperate with Fatah leaders to resolve their fears.

Exhausted Eyes’ Movement about the future

While Hamas has been weakened militarily and politically, there is also a little probability that Hamas won’t remain an ideologically strong force, able to attracting the support of many Palestinians in Gaza, as well as on the west shore and a wider Palestinian diaspora.

But as the ruling entity Hamas appears to be a worn force in the foreseeable future – something that members of the group willingly recognize.

Recently Egyptian Palestinian conversations, although efficiently, indicate how every long-term future for Gaza-lub Palestinians as a whole-implies a more coherent Palestinian political leadership.

Indeed, one among the latest Egyptian plans is that it doesn’t connect Palestinians under a unified government, because the proposed ruling being will only be liable for supervising the Gaza belt.

And the trust between Hamas and Fatah stays low, as it has been since then Hamas took over Gaza Strip in June 2007 After a sudden confrontation with Fatah.

However, even when Hamas and Fatah would comply with the government of unityThe wider reality is that it cannot occur as long as Israel and its international allies, mainly the United States, oppose this.

For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stated it Nor Palestinian Neither Hamas play any role day after the war.

When the war was over

However, in addition to the everlasting Israeli military occupation, it is difficult to see what options exist for Palestinians who’re going forward in the event of unification in Palestinian policy.

When Hamas won a serious victory In the Palestinian legislative elections in January 2006 it was largely as a consequence of Fatah divisions, corruption, and widespread dissatisfaction with what was provided by Oslo’s peace process and a small sign of future progress against the Palestinian state.

Almost 20 years later, none of those realities modified significantly.

Gaza devastation only intensified the humanitarian crisis and the difficulty of the long -term chart of the solution. However, when the war in Gaza is over, there will likely be no options for Arab countries, including Egypt, the United States and a wider international community to assist Palestinians to rebuild the enclave in reconstruction and on the lookout for a certain security measure. Palestinians who live there cannot afford one other management of management.