Syrians have been for over a decade The world’s largest refugee population.
Has over 6 million Syrians I ran away from the country Since 2011, when the Bashara Assad’s regime was created right into a 13-yr civil war. Most resulted in neighboring countries, corresponding to Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt, while there was a big minority in Europe. But the overthrow of the Assad regime at the end of 2024 by opposition forces under the leadership of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham apparently opened the window to their return and Tens of 1000’s of former refugees Since then, they decided to return to their homeland.
How many and who determine to return, and the circumstances during which they’re repeated with Syrian society will have huge consequences for each Syria and the countries during which they resettled. Scholars of migration like us To higher understand what will occur when refugees finally return home.
Previous studies have shown that Syrian refugees who are attempting to determine whether to come back are motivated More by conditions in Syria than on the basis of political decisions during which they moved. But individual experiences also play an vital role. Necessary, refugees who were exposed to violence during the civil war in Syria are in actual fact more tolerant and higher assess the risk of returning to Syria, Studies have been demonstrated.
But such tests were conducted, while Assad was still in power and only a number of weeks have passed since the fall of Assad. As a result, it is not clear how many Syrians will determine to come back. After all, the current government is temporary and the country not fully unified.
Risk of return
A month after Assad’s fall, about 125,000 Syrians faced Home, mainly from Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. But for most of them which have still returned, vital questions and considerations remain.
First of all, what will management under transitional rule appear like? To date, the rule of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham under the rule of Ahmed Al-Sharaa suggested that the group would accept the inclusion towards the various range of ethnic and non secular minorities in Syria. Still, some Observers are anxious About the earlier connections of the group with warming Islamist groups, including Al-Qaida.
Similarly, initial fears Restrictions on women’s participation in public life they were mostly satisfied, despite the transitional government appointment only two Women to the office.
Syrians debating whether to return home, in addition they have to face the economic devastation caused over the years of war, improper management of government and corruption and international sanctions placed on the Assad regime.
Sanctions blocking the entry of drugs and equipment, together with the bombing of infrastructure by Assad during the war, it was mutilated country medical system.
In 2024, 16.7 million Syrians – greater than half of the country’s population – was in need Necessary humanitarian aid, even when it was not much available. At the starting of 2025, the USA He announced that he was expanding Partial, six -month sanctions relief to enable humanitarian groups to provide basic services corresponding to water, sanitary and electricity.
But the reconstruction of the country’s infrastructure will last for much longer, and Syrian refugees will have to weigh whether or not they are higher to stay of their receiving countries. This is very true for those that worked on constructing a brand new life for an extended time in exile from Syria.
The Syrian government will even have to solve the problem Return of the property. Many people might want to go home only when it really have a house return to. And the policy of forced real estate transfers and settlements by Alawite and minority groups allied with the Assad regime in former Sunni areas released during the war, they complicate this problem.
Still welcoming in Europe?
Since the starting of the civil war, about 1.3 million Syrians were looking for protection in Europe, most of them arrived in 2015 and 2016 and settled in countries corresponding to Germany and Sweden. From December 2023, 780,000 people He continued to maintain the refugee status and the protection of the subsidiary-the addition form of international protection-the part that received long-term stays or citizenship.
Ercin Erturk/Anadol via Getty Images
Dependent protection has been granted to individuals who do not meet the rigorous requirements regarding the status of refugee on the basis of Geneva conventions -who requires an affordable fear of persecution based on breed, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group-but “”He would meet with an actual risk of suffering serious damage“If they return to their countries of origin.
Syrian recognition indicators remained consistently high in 2015-2023, but malfunction Between the protection of the subsidiary and the status of the refugee will change over the years, with 81% received refugee status in 2015 compared to 68% protection of a subsidiary in 2023.
In the case of Syrians in the EU, who’ve refugee status or protection of a subsidiary, in addition to for individuals with ongoing asylum claims, the future could be very uncertain. According to the Geneva Conventions, EU law allows governments Return, finish or refuse to renew Their status, if the reason to offer protection, determine what, according to many countries, takes place after the fall of Assad.
From that point no less than 12 European countries Asylum applications of Syria residents suspended. Some nations, corresponding to Austria, threatened to implement the “orderly return and deportation” program.
Conditions in Turkey and Lebanon
A much larger number of Syrians have been protected in neighboring countriesNamely Türkiye (2.9 million), Lebanon (755,000) and Jordan (611,000), although the estimates of unregistered Syrians are much higher. In Turkey, which hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees, Syrians only assurance Temporary protection status.
Theoretically, this status enables them to access work, healthcare and education. But in practice, Syrian refugees in Turkey were not all the time able to enjoy these laws. In combination with anti -migrant moods deteriorated by the earthquake in 2023. AND Presidential electionsLife remained difficult for many.
And while the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly found that Syrians should return home according to their very own time axis, his Previous scape goat refugee population indicates that he may ultimately want to return them – especially like Many in Turkey Now imagine that Syrian refugees haven’t any reason to stay in the country.
Syrians in Lebanon, during which guests of the largest number of Syrian refugees per capita, face even greater economic and legal challenges. The country is not a signatory to the Geneva Convention and its rigorous national asylum law granted a stay only 17% from over 1,000,000 Syrians living in the country.
Lebanon presses on Syrian refugees to leave the country for years Principles of marginalization and compelled deportationwhich have intensified in recent months with the Syrian’s government deportation program not registered in the UN. From 2023, 84% of Syrian families lived in extreme poverty. Their susceptibility to the susceptibility was tightened by the recent conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon. 425,000 Syrians to escape the war Return to Syria again, despite the incontrovertible fact that the conditions were not secure at the moment.
Water testing
Offering visits and seeing-during which one member of the family can return to the native country to assess the situation, after which allow re-entering the host country without losing legal status is the norm In many situations for refugees. Politics is currently used for Ukrainians in Europe and has been utilized in the past for refugees from Bosnian and South.
The same policy can now serve Syrian refugees – in actual fact, Turkey He recently implemented such a plan. But above all, we expect that returning to Syria should be voluntary, not forced. Obtaining conditions for the return of refugees will have huge consequences for the reconstruction of the country and maintaining peace – or not – in the coming years.