On Sunday, the world received news that it might not have thought possible. The murderous regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not any more, and after 13 years of suffering, the Syrian civil war could also be coming to an end.

In just a couple of days, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – an armed Islamist group based in Idlib in northern Syria – moved south, capturing Aleppo and Homs, after which capturing the capital Damascus. Meanwhile, Assad is reported he fled together with his family to Moscow.

The most optimistic observers see this moment as a probability for peace. Assad has finally been toppled, his key allies Russia and Iran are involved elsewhere, and a fragile peace is emerging between Syria’s various armed factions. Others warn that the resulting vacuum may lead to a continuation of the chaotic violence that has plagued Libya since the overthrow and killing of the country’s dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

What happens next will depend as much on forces outside Syria as on those inside it. I was in Syria in 2013, interviews with fighters and commanders from several groups that got here together to form HTS, including Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. As I learned from talking to them, armed groups like HTS are likely to listen when the international community tries to interact with them.

HTS was formed in 2017 as an alliance of a number of Islamist armed groups in northwestern Syria, including the Syrian affiliate of al-Qaeda often known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. In previous years, HTS was in a difficult situation in the Idlib region. Yet it stubbornly persevered while many other armed groups collapsed under the onslaught of a regime backed by Russian warplanes and Hezbollah fighters.

Syria is at a crossroads with many potential paths ahead. Some point The Islamist roots of HTS. For these people, the nightmare scenario that the world has been trying to stop since 2011 got here true: a radical Islamist group got here to power in Syria.

Others say the group has separated from its more radical roots. As the saying goes, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham divorced Al-Qaeda in 2016 he didn’t wish to be tainted anymore as a consequence of its negative global image and merged with other groups to form HTS.

And HTS has recently sought to advertise a more moderate image, even encouraging religious tolerance. If his assurances are to be believed, it might aim to construct a peaceful and stable Syria.

The key to determining Syria’s future will be the actions of other countries that want to interact HTS and its affiliates. My research shows that sometimes they will make changes in consequence of this dialogue. Groups with a history of violating the laws of war may reply to international pressure and cause changes in their behavior.

They will also sometimes respond positively to involvement by participating in negotiations and conflict resolution. However, when isolated, siled or ignored, these groups can do exactly the opposite.

While in Syria, I spoke to many alternative insurgent factions and the common thread was that they felt ignored by the international community. The general of the Free Syrian Army (then a U.S.-backed coalition of rebel groups) complained about the difficulty of complying with international humanitarian law without international support.

Fighters from Islamist groups complained about the hypocrisy of international organizations. When they tried to contact states and organizations, they felt ignored, forcing them to ally with more hard-line groups as a substitute of moderates. An Islamic State commander even asked me to send positive messages about them to my family and friends, hoping it will encourage more international contacts.

It could be a mistake to wholeheartedly imagine armed groups in their declared willingness to cooperate peacefully. But by the same token, completely ignoring them is unlikely to finish the fighting.

Is peace possible?

Explaining how we got thus far could also be easier than predicting what will occur next. The Assad regime has long been supported by its allies. So, with Russia engaged in a war of attrition in Ukraine and each Hezbollah and Iran fighting conflict with Israel, HTS saw a possibility and seized it.

While many have fun the failure of Iranian and Russian interventions in Syria, it’s unlikely that either power’s influence in Syria will end. Recent developments may even bring the two sides closer to a partnership that would include interventions elsewhere or exchanges of weapons technology.

No country will simply quit its goals in Syria. Russia, for instance, has strategic air and naval bases there which are essential for the Kremlin to project power in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Africa. Russia will not abandon them easily.

Türkiye appears to have been an extended-time supporter of HTS a robust position to influence events. This may include using its advantage in a sustained attack on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.

Although the SDF are nominal allies of America, it’s unlikely that they have forgotten about Donald Trump sudden abandonment of them in 2019. When the US president announced the withdrawal of US military forces from Syria, it created an influence vacuum that Turkey used as a reason to launch a military operation against the Syrian Kurds. The future of Kurdish autonomy may due to this fact be in query, although the battle-hardened SDF will probably not quit and not using a fight.

It is just not yet clear how the Trump administration will cooperate with Syria under HTS control. While it’s unlikely that we will see a rise in American involvement on the ground, it’s difficult to assume that Trump will grow to be an ally of HTS, an armed group with historical ties to Islamists.

Meanwhile, Israel took over temporary control of a demilitarized buffer zone in Syrian-controlled areas of the Golan Heights. Some fear that this may increasingly result in a rise in conflict in the country. The Israeli military has warned Syrians living in five villages near the occupied areas to “stay at home.” Some schools have switched to online classes in anticipation of the unrest.

These events in Syria have enormous consequences for the country and the region, and HTS is at the center of them. It is unclear whether the group will manage to take care of power in Syria, and if so, what type of regime it will try to construct.

The response from regional and global powers will be crucial at this juncture where commitment to HTS is crucial if the opportunity for peace is to be realized.

The rapid capture by Syrian rebels of huge swaths of northern Syria, including the war-torn country’s second largest city, Aleppo, and the strategically essential city of Hama further south, is a blow to the regime of Bashar al. -Assad.

The rebels are here now pushing further south towards my hometown of Homs. When these cities fell to Assad – Aleppo fell in 2017 – it was seen as an indication of the end of Syria popular rebellion against the regimewhich began with such optimism when the Syrians poured out onto the streets across the country in 2011 to call for freedom, justice and dignity.

After a long time of oppression by the Assad family, hopes were high for a unique future. However, hope quickly turned to despair. Peaceful demonstrations were suppressed by Assad’s government, sparking a brutal armed conflict that left many dead half one million people and displaced over 12 million more.

Over the years, the war in Syria has largely disappeared from the headlines. But with the explosion of violence in the country last week, that modified.

For many Syrians, each in exile and at home, the rebel advance has rekindled hopes from 13 years ago. Many prisoners are like that already released from Syrian prisons and there may be cautious optimism that displaced people and refugees will finally have the ability to return home.

At the same time, nevertheless, many Syrians fear latest wars to return, latest cycles of violence in cities and towns across the country, and latest sources of suffering, displacement and human rights violations.

Assad has vowed to “crush” rebel forces, and his key allies Russia and Iran have offered their “unconditional support.” Since November 27, when the rebel offensive began, almost 300,000 people were relocated and a whole bunch died. Fighter jets intensively bombed rebel-held areas, hitting residential buildings and even A hospital in Idlib in northern Syria.

In a speech delivered on December 4 to the UN Security Council in New York, Raed Al Salih, director of the Syrian White Helmets Civil Defense, also he talked about his own serious concern about the “real threat of chemical attacks”. Civilians, especially those in rebel-held areas, are once more trapped in the heart of battlefields.

But Syrians are not only fearful about further waves of violence. Since 2011, life itself has change into a struggle for access to basic necessities. And now the situation is becoming more and harder.

Prices of basic goods in Aleppo, as well as in other cities, have increased significantly since the rebel takeover, with reports from residents that the price of some goods has doubled. In a rustic where roughly 90% of the population already lives living in povertygreater instability will only make life harder for individuals who are already struggling to survive.

Fear of an uncertain future

There are also concerns that if rebel groups take control of further parts of the country, there can be further restrictions on freedom. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist militant group at the center of the offensive, was originally formed from al-Qaeda affiliates. However, in recent times the group has modified its name.

Its leader, Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, known by his pseudonym Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, identifies himself as champion of pluralism and tolerance. HTS is currently calling for the creation of a “Syria for all Syrians”, with the aim of gaining broad public support from people representing different religions and sects.

In an exclusive interview with CNN on December 6 this 12 months. Jawlani was asked whether Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities will live safely under HTS rule. In response, he stated, “no one has the right to erase another group. Each sect has coexisted for hundreds of years and no one has the right to eliminate them.”

Regardless, many Syrians living abroad have expressed concerns about the future following the rebel advance. In interview released on December 4, Mehdi Hasan, a British-American journalist, discussed how HTS takes its cue from the Taliban in Afghanistan.

“Many supporters of the Assad regime say that if this group is allowed to take over Syria, it will be like the Taliban. You will oppress women, you will have persecution of Christians, you will have Shiites, and the targets will be minority groups,” Hasan noted. “Is this true right now? Is that so?” – he asked. Hassan I. HassanSyrian-American journalist, replied: “It’s true. And that’s the biggest fear.”

These concerns are rooted in human rights violations committed by HTS in the areas it controls. In 2023 Amnesty International warned that HTS subjected journalists, activists and anyone who criticized its rule in Idlib province to “arbitrary detention without access to a lawyer or family members.”

A 12 months earlier, the Syrian Network for Human Rights based in Great Britain published the report attributing the deaths of not less than 505 civilians between 2012 and 2021 to HTS, including 71 children and 77 women. In an interview with CNN Jawlani admitted that “there have been some violations” against minorities by “some people during periods of chaos.” “But we have addressed these issues,” he added.

AND video on x (formerly Twitter) shows a Muslim woman asking a person in Aleppo if he’s a Christian and what his situation is after the rebels took over the city. The offensive appears to be accompanied by a coordinated PR campaign aimed toward reassuring folks that life will proceed as normal after HTS takes control.

This is in contrast to areas controlled by other radical groups such as Islamic State, where people have been killed due to their beliefs or religion.

Syria is once more at a crossroads. And nobody knows what might occur next. Turkman Rimsenior research fellow at the London School of Economics, believes that “a reasoned political solution that truly engages all actors on the ground” is the only thing that can ensure peace in Syria.

After 13 years of exile, displacement and mass murder, we Syrians need this peace. But for now we want a miracle. The voices of wisdom, unity and peace must prevail to forestall Syria from falling into one other period of mourning.

The so-called “axis of the defenseless” is breaking in Syria. As of 2016 Russia and Iransupporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad, it took greater than a 12 months of bombings, ground attacks and sieges to interrupt rebel opposition in the eastern part of Syria’s largest city, Aleppo.

Now, in 2024, it took the rebels lower than 4 days to accomplish that liberate the city and most of Aleppo province. They also regained territory in neighboring Idlib province and moved south to northern Hama before the Assad regime established defensive lines.

Russian forces remained in their bases in the Mediterranean. Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah have been caught by rebels advancing on their positions in northwestern Syria. They abandoned them, but a minimum of not before two commanders were killed.

Since 2020, after Russia and Iran helped his forces thrust back opposition forces in much of Syria, Assad has presided over parts of the divided country in name. He and his allies controlled most of the largest cities, including Aleppo and the capital Damascus, while Turkish-backed opposition groups controlled most of northwestern Syria and U.S.-backed Kurdish factions had autonomy in the northeast.

Now Assad doesn’t even preside over his side of the division. And his Russian and Iranian enablers, overburdened and isolated throughout much of the world, are powerless to revive his paper rule.

Supporting Assad

Since the starting of the Syrian rebellion against Assad’s long-time rule in March 2011, Russia and Iran have provided political, logistical, intelligence and propaganda assistance to the Assad regime.

Iran successfully took over Assad’s army since September 2012, training tens of hundreds of militiamen to replenish depleted forces. Hezbollah sent his fighters since 2013 to rescue the Assad regime near the border with Lebanon. And Russia intervened special forces and air forces from September 2015

The success of Assad and his allies rested largely on their ability to weaken the international community. Kremlin spread destructive disinformation to cover up the regime’s deadly chemical attacks and denigrate opposition and Syrian activists White helmets civil defense.

Instead of holding the regime accountable, the Obama administration was dragged into fruitless ceasefire discussions. The EU was sidelined, the UN became powerless and Arab governments finally sat on their hands.

Perhaps the regime’s biggest triumph was portraying the collapse of the anti-Assad movement as extraordinary. Eastern Aleppo was retaken in December 2016. Daraa province, the original site of the protests, and the rest of southern Syria surrendered in 2018. An 11-month offensive recaptured Hama province and parts of Idlib before a ceasefire. mediated by Russia and Türkiyein March 2020

But this image was also an illusion hiding weakness. Russian bombings and sieges had leveled and strangled much of the country, but Moscow, Iran, and Hezbollah still lacked the strength to assist the regime occupy the rest of northwestern Syria or remove the Kurds from the northeast.

“Reconstruction” was a misleading label in areas reclaimed by the regime. Long burdened by the kleptocracy of the Assad elite, the Syrian economy has lost ground greater than half GDP in 2010–2020. The Syrian pound, which was valued at 47 per US dollar in 2011, has now fallen to 13,000 per US dollar and unofficially it is much weaker. International sanctions imposed as a consequence of the regime’s mass killings and repression remain in force.

The regime, even though it could count on external help, could maintain the illusion of power. But then Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, quickly conquering Ukraine in 2022. Nearly three years later, he has devoted most of Russia’s resources to operations there, putting the country under international economic pressure.

Iran’s leaders have been tormented by mass protests over social issues, including women’s rights. The economy still teeters between inefficiency and sanctions. And targeted killings and covert operations by Israel and the US have weakened the military.

Hezbollah has been decimated by Israeli attacks over the past three months, from pager explosions to the assassinations of commanders, including key leader Hassan Nasrallah. The shaky ceasefire has not freed militants from the threat of Israeli airstrikes and ground attacks.

So when the rebels attacked last week, they didn’t encounter the vaunted axis of resistance. They saw only the fading shadow of Assad’s alleged power.

Turkey’s key role

What’s next for Assad and his supporters? The answer may now lie with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Erdoğan may not have launched the rebel offensive, sources said Abu Mohammad al-Jolanithe leader of the Islamist faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, made a call – but he is the beneficiary of its result. Turkey political and economic scope in northwest Syria, it has expanded since 2016 to incorporate the country’s largest city.

Ankara has influence on the terms of the negotiations. It could encourage and even equip the rebels to proceed, or it could call for a halt and consolidation in preparation for a gathering with the Russians and Iranians. This has already been done by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hosted his Iranian counterpart in a show of diplomacy.

But this raises further questions. Erdoğan’s primary enemy in Syria is not Assad, but the Kurdish authorities, which he sees as part of the Turkish-Kurdish insurgent group, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

So far, the Turkish-backed rebels have had no serious clashes with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). SDF and Kurdish officials did so apparently pulled out areas in Aleppo province, trench work in north-eastern Syria.

But will Türkiye accept it or as in 2019Will he proceed his attack in the northeast? According to Ankara reports initiated talks with the Assad regime over a Turkish-controlled “buffer zone” far inside the border.

This brings in the United States, which is a significant supporter of the Kurds and the SDF. For now, Washington will likely maintain this commitment. But as of January, all bets are off as Donald Trump returns to the White House.

After a phone call with Erdoğan in late 2018, Trump he tried to back out all American soldiers from Syria. The Pentagon outmaneuvered him, but one other conversation with Erdoğan in October 2019 gave the green light for a Turkish cross-border invasion.

The axis of the defenseless is breaking, but the era of uncertainty in Syria continues. Syrian residents can only hope that it is now not so deadly and destructive.