Who could have predicted that after almost 14 years of civil war and five years of stalemate, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria would collapse in only a week? With Assad gone, the burning query is what Syria’s immediate future holds.
When opposition fighters led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group captured the most important city of Aleppo in late November with minimal resistance, commentators widely believed it marked the start of the autumn of the Assad regime. Many expected a fierce fight until the very end.
Assad was caught off guard and his forces clearly unprepared. He withdrew remaining troops from Aleppo to regroup and buy time for reinforcements to reach from Russia and Iran, hoping opposition fighters would stop there.
It wasn’t meant to be. Emboldened by their rapid success in Aleppo, HTS fighters wasted no time in advancing on Hama, capturing it with ease. They quickly moved on and took Homs, another large city to the south.
Russia provided limited air support to Assad. However, Iran, having exhausted its forces defending Hezbollah against Israel in Lebanon, was unable to supply significant assistance and withdrew the remaining staff from Syria. Meanwhile, Assad calls frantically support from Iraq he didn’t go anywhere.
Seeing the writing on the wall, the morale of Assad’s forces and leadership has plummeted. Fearing retribution within the event of the regime’s fall, desertions began en masse, further hastening Assad’s fall.
And on the last day Assad escaped country, and its prime minister officially handed over power to HTS and its leadership. This marked the top of 54 years of Assad family rule in Syria.
Mohammed Al-Rifai/EPA
Assad’s legacy
Most Syrians will likely remember the Assad family, including Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, as brutal dictators.
The modern state of Syria was established in 1920 Sykes-Picot Agreement within the aftermath of the First World War. Syria became a League of Nations mandate under French control, gaining independence only in 1944. After a turbulent period, including failed unification with Egypt, the Baath Party took control in 1963 in a coup d’état led by Hafez al-Assad.
In 1966, Hafez al-Assad became the leader another coup together with other officials of the Alawite minority. This eventually led to the establishment of a civilian regime, and Hafez al-Assad became president in 1970.
Library of Congress/Wikimedia Commons
Hafez al-Assad became often known as an authoritarian dictator, concentrating power, the military and the economy within the hands of his relatives and the Alawite community. Meanwhile, the Sunni majority has been largely marginalized and excluded from positions of power and influence.
Hafez al-Assad is most infamous for his brutal suppression of the opposition in 1982. As a result of the rebellion led by the Islamic Front, the opposition captured the town of Hama. In response, the Syrian army razed the town, leaving an estimated 10,000 to 40,000 civilians dead or missing, ultimately suppressing the revolt.
Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, and his younger son, Bashar al-Assad, the least likely candidate, took over as president. Educated within the West to change into a doctor, Bashar al-Assad projected a picture of moderation and modernity, inspiring hope that he could usher in a recent era of progress and democracy in Syria.
However, Bashar al-Assad soon found himself in a turbulent regional landscape following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the US invasion of Iraq. In 2004, after the United States imposed sanctions on SyriaAssad was on the lookout for closer ties with Turkey. He and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have struck up a friendship as they waive visa requirements between their countries and plan to create economic zones to spice up trade.
Erdoğan and Assad then fell out during a series of events in 2011, which was a turning point for Syria. The country erupted in Arab Spring revolts, presenting Assad with a critical selection: pursue the trail of democracy or crush the opposition, as his father did in 1982.
He selected the latter, missing a historic opportunity for Syria’s peaceful transformation.
The consequences were disastrous. A devastating civil war broke out, killing over 300,000 people (some estimates are higher), 5.4 million refugees and 6.9 million internally displaced individuals. This will be Assad’s legacy.
Dusan Vranić/AP
Immediate challenges facing Syria
Syria now has a recent force in power: HTS and its leadership, led by militant leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. They will face immediate challenges and 4 key priorities:
1) Consolidation of power. The recent leadership will now strive to make sure that there are no armed groups capable of difficult their rule, especially the remnants of the old Assad regime and smaller factions that weren’t part of the opposition forces.
Crucially, they will also need to discuss how power will be shared among the many coalition of opposition groups. Al-Jolani is more likely to change into the founding president of the brand new Syria, but how the remainder of power will be distributed stays uncertain.
It seems that the opposition was not prepared to take power so quickly and there could also be no power-sharing agreement. This will need to be negotiated and worked out quickly.
The recent government will probably recognize it Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the territories it controls as an autonomous region in Syria. However, an independent Kurdish state will be strongly opposed by Türkiye, the most important external supporter of the opposition.
However, it seems that history is moving in favor of the so-called Kurds. There is now the last word possibility of establishing an independent Kurdish state, potentially uniting northern Iraq and northeastern Syria into one entity.
Lefteris Pitarakis/AP
2) International recognition. Syria is a very complex and diverse place. Therefore, the brand new government can only be maintained if it receives international recognition.
The key players on this process are Türkiye, the European Union, the United States and Israel (through the US). It is likely that all of these entities will recognize the brand new government provided it establishes a moderate administration, refrains from fighting the Kurdish YPG and doesn’t support Hezbollah or Hamas.
Given the unexpected success in toppling Assad so quickly, the opposition will likely accept these terms in exchange for help and recognition.
3) Formation of a recent government. Everyone is wondering what kind of political order the opposition forces will establish now. HTS and lots of groups in its coalition are Sunni Muslims, including HTS origin linked to Al-Qaeda. However, HTS broke away from the terrorist organization in 2016 and focused exclusively on Syria as an opposition movement.
Nevertheless, we should always not expect democratic secular rule. The recent government is also unlikely to resemble the ultraconservative theocratic rule of the Taliban.
In his last interview for CNNal-Jolani made two key points. He indicated that his and other group leaders’ views evolved with age, suggesting that the intense views of their youth had softened over time. He also emphasized that the opposition will be tolerant towards the liberty and rights of religious and ethnic minorities.
The details of how this will manifest remain unclear. HTS is expected to form a conservative government by which Islam plays a dominant role in shaping social policy and legislating.
On the economic and foreign policy fronts, the country’s recent leaders are more likely to be pragmatic and open to alliances with the regional and global powers that have supported them.
4) Rebuilding the country and maintaining unity. This is needed to stop another civil war from breaking out – this time among the many victors.
Recent statement by the HTS Department of Political Affairs said the brand new Syria would give attention to construction, progress and reconciliation. The recent government goals to create positive conditions for displaced Syrians to return to their country, establish constructive relations with neighboring countries and prioritize economic reconstruction.
Syria and the broader Middle East have entered a recent phase of their modern history. Time will tell how all the things will develop, but one thing is certain: it will never be the identical.
