The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah since September 2024 and Israeli bombing of civilian areas across Lebanon have sparked deep conflict humanitarian disaster.

Mass displacement over 1 million peopleincluding Lebanese nationals, migrant employees AND Syrian AND Palestinian refugees, it has triggered a crisis in Lebanon. However, an equally significant phenomenon is happening beyond Lebanon’s southern border with Israel: movement people displaced from Lebanon to Syria.

Estimated 400,000 Lebanese and Syrians have reportedly fled to Syria as a result of overpopulation border crossings.

Not to be confused with back, this movement represents a reversal of the refugee flow after Syria descended into civil war in 2011. It can also be emblematic of a broader pattern of cyclical displacement crises in the region.

Complex and interconnected stories Lebanon and Syria – where each of them was at different times shelter for residents of the other side – challenge the easy binaries often related to the refugee experience.

The exchange of roles between Lebanon and Syria highlights not only the fragility of regional stability, but additionally the fluidity of displacement – ​​in addition to the deeper implications that cross-border movement has for the socio-political dynamics of each countries.

The story of mutual shelter

The relations between Lebanon and Syria has long been complex and oscillates between cooperation and tension. Despite Syria’s official withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005 a long time as an occupying forcethe two countries remain connected as a result of shared borders, economic ties and security concerns. Collaboration exists in areas corresponding to tradebut there may be considerable tension, particularly with the presence of the over 1 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

However, in their modern history, one of the most enduring bonds has been their shared experiences of displacement and refuge, dating back to their origins Civil war in Lebanon. Between 1975 and 1990, hundreds of Lebanese fled to Syria to flee the sectarian conflict that engulfed their homeland.

However, the post-war period was marked by a change in the dynamics between the two countries. The 2005 withdrawal Syrian troops from Lebanon marked the starting of a brand new chapter in their relations.

Tensions rose as Lebanon tried to rebuild and assert its sovereignty after the law 30 years Syrian occupation. However, the trend of upheavals in the region soon led to a different role reversal a long time later, it was estimated 180,000 Lebanese he took it refuge in Syria while July War 2006.

With the arrival Civil war in Syria in 2011 it was Lebanon’s turn to function a refuge. Until 2015 1 million Syrians are fleeing violence made a visit to Lebanon.

Despite being one of 44 countries he never signed 1951 Refugee Convention. Lebanon is the country receiving the largest number of refugees refugees per capita globally.

Because Lebanon has not signed the convention, it doesn’t formally recognize refugee status, which it says gives the country more control over its refugee policy. Although Lebanon receives humanitarian aid from the United Nations Refugee Agency, refugees remain in: uncertain legal statuswith limited rights.

For many Lebanese, the recent influx of fleeing refugees from Syria has revived memories of their very own displacement, while for others it has been a trigger anti-refugee sentiment.

Bouncing between 2 war torn countries

With the latest escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, history is repeating itself again. Lebanese residents, mainly from Hezbollah’s strongholds in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, are searching for refuge in Syria, a rustic still battling its own problems economic collapse, violence and internal conflicts.

Although the conflict on Lebanese territory has been ongoing for over a yr, movements into Syria only intensified at the end of September 2024, when people they develop into increasingly eager to escape.

As one displaced person forced to flee Beirut explained to me: “Syria was certainly not a ‘better’ option than Lebanon six months ago, but in the last week, since the attacks on Beirut and the political assassinations, Syria is safer – it goes through it anyway. This is how unsafe we ​​feel in Beirut – bouncing between one war-torn country and another.”

Implications for refugee-host dynamics

The cyclical nature of resettlements between Lebanon and Syria subverts the prevailing political narrative the host-refugee dynamic is constant and unidirectional.

Syrians were resettled in Lebanon presented by some Lebanese politicians as one-way. This appears to be intended to border Syrian refugees as the only person aid recipients – unlike Lebanese residents – as well load is Lebanon.

However, when displacement occurs in each directions, this narrative begins to interrupt down.

Syrian refugees who once sought safety in Lebanon now see their country as… a safer haven – although fragile and temporary. Meanwhile, the residents of Lebanon are faced the same type of susceptibility and desperation that their Syrian counterparts have experienced over the past decade.

Importantly, testimonies from people traveling from their “temporary” home in Lebanon back to Syria emphasize that these movements shouldn’t be confused with back movements. Rather, they’re a short lived solution in themselves.

As one Syrian who fled his Lebanese home explained to me: “No, I’m not going back. I prefer to leave one foot in Lebanon and the other in Syria. Syria is not a safe place by any means. As men, we are at risk of arrest and forced conscription. But Lebanon is temporarily, at this point in history, much less safe. We make this assessment week by week. I sent my wife and children first. I will follow.”

For their part, IDPs arriving in Syria insist that the moves are “entirely temporary.” One of them told me: “Syria is no stranger to us. This feels close and familiar. But most importantly, it feels temporary and appropriate proximity to Lebanon. As soon as the situation calms down, we will return to our homes. Many of us have nothing to return to, but even then we will not stay in Syria.”

Displacement tension

Both Lebanon and Syria are in some ways ill-prepared to address a brand new wave of displacement.

By 2023, the cause was Lebanon’s economic collapse 80% of its population into poverty, which makes it almost unimaginable to tackle the additional weight load internal displacement.

Government paralysiscompounded by political impasse, leaves internally displaced individuals with little or no state support, mainly relying to survive using help and social networks.

Syria, although positioned as the “host” of the current migration flow, has the same situation forced. Country infrastructure stays devastated by greater than a decade of civil war. Basic services are stretched thin and economy he didn’t get better. Humanitarian organizations coordinating the response are operating under overstretched resources is decreasing support.

A region plunged into everlasting chaos

I fear that as the armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates, the displacement crisis in Lebanon and Syria is more likely to worsen.

The recent wave of Syrian and Lebanese refugees into Syria demonstrates the cyclical nature of refuge in the region. Ultimately, the ongoing displacement crisis in Lebanon and Syria is a reminder that refuge is commonly temporary and depending on changing geopolitics in the region.

The histories of these two countries, each of which served as havens for the other’s displaced populations, underscore the complexity of displacement in the Middle East.

The indisputable fact that Lebanese residents at the moment are searching for refuge in Syria, a rustic from which over one million refugees fled just over a decade ago, underscores the variability of regional displacement patterns. It also raises critical questions on the sustainability of international refugee systems, which too often depend on static, one-way migration models and don’t keep in mind the fluid and often reversible nature of resettlement.

Threads – a terrifying film made by the BBC in 1984 depicting the impact of nuclear war on a town in northern England – was recently made available for streaming. It’s a brutal and grim journey through the aftermath of nuclear war that anyone who watched the unique can have a tough time re-watching. However, 40 years later, the film might be seen more as an unpleasant artifact from a more dangerous time.

We now eat many forms of apocalyptic entertainment in movies and video games, exploring all types of social breakdown: ecological catastrophe, artificial pandemics, alien invasions, cyberattacks and dangerous artificial intelligence. But “Threads” is especially chilling in its attempt to realistically portray what may need happened had Cold War tensions escalated. I remember watching it as a youngster in class at college and once was enough for me.

However, in the winter of 2024, it’s difficult to avoid regular warnings concerning the escalation of tensions world wide. There are widespread fears that a disastrous series of diplomatic breakdowns and strategic miscalculations could result in a 2024 version of the events depicted in the 1984 film.

Since the tip of the Cold War, much of the international conflict has been fought below the edge of open war, in the spheres of cyberwar, espionage and subversion. Or in other attempts at economic and political tactics designed to influence and manipulate. However, there may be clearly something very disturbing concerning the situation for the reason that invasion of Ukraine and the escalation of events in the Middle East after October 7.

What makes the present situation so worrying is the sense that “great powers” or nuclear-armed states may very well be drawn into conflicts that might quickly escalate beyond any diplomatic or political control. We hope that leaders on all sides are determined to deter or contain conflict. But wars are shaped by accidents, miscalculations, and errors in strategic judgment.

Would Vladimir Putin send his troops to Ukraine if he could see how Ukrainians and the international community would react? Now he has began making regular threats against Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

There is due to this fact a way of concern concerning the current possibility of events spiraling uncontrolled – of events escalating from brutal and horrific local or regional conflicts into full-blown global conflict. There will definitely be (hopefully) ongoing diplomatic efforts focused on ensuring that events in Ukraine and the Middle East don’t escalate to the purpose where the world is drawn right into a broader war using weapons of mass destruction.

Rational and irrational actors

However, one concern is that the situation in the 2020s is clearly difficult due to geopolitical tensions in the course of the Cold War. Influential “realists” of diplomacy – including: scientists John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt – argued that certainly one of the the reason why the United States shouldn’t invade Iraq is precisely this Saddam Hussein was a “rational actor” whose behavior will be stopped and controlled. Iraq may very well be controlled through what they considered “vigilant surveillance” and containment.

However, the fear in 2024 is that the world isn’t inhabited by rational actors, because it was in the course of the Cold War, with its doctrine of mutually assured destruction.

Putin is seen as a pacesetter increasingly detached from reality – surrounded by advisers who’re too afraid to give him advice he may not want to hear. Strategically, it’s the fear that escalation and de-escalation may occur. He could attempt a nuclear attack to stop events from escalating any further – a terrifying wake-up call that may put an end to all attempts to challenge him.

Some query whether Iran will be led by people who find themselves also Iran detached from reality and maybe they really expect an apocalyptic clash with Israel and the West. This image of irrational leaders could also be more a mirrored image of our panic and paranoia than a reliable assessment of the leadership in these countries. And after all, some argue that there are a good variety of irrational actors in the liberal world.

A connected world

So can we live in a time of dangerous irrational actors where deterrence will fail to prevent a potentially apocalyptic escalation of world events? Security analysts and decision-makers often refer to the so-called “deterrence by entanglement”. There are several types of deterrence, but certainly one of the geopolitical differences between the present war and the Cold War is the extent of interconnectedness between states, where there will be diplomatic, economic and political tensions.

How many Chinese students study at British universities? How many properties in London are owned by Russian residents? Societies are entangled to such an extent that launching a nuclear attack on London wouldn’t only destroy investments, but could also kill your individual residents. Then there’s the query of geography and nuclear attacks: would you risk it? ecological effect of nuclear attacks in a way that might threaten your territory, ecology and residents – for generations?

Leaders make mistakes and situations escalate in dangerous and unpredictable ways. But certainly one of the teachings of diplomacy – going back to the works of Sun Tzu and Machiavelli – is that deception is a crucial a part of state policy and military operations. And the “realization” of the art of presidency often requires cultivating a picture of irrationality as a type of rational state policy and deterrence. Some have argued that Donald Trump’s actions and statements on international affairs create a way of uncertainty that acts as a one-man deterrence strategy.

However, as time goes on, it will probably be terrifying to watch and experience this performance. Let us not forget that the history of diplomacy is a history of tragic accidents, most of which might have been avoided.

Escalation of violence in the Middle East, especially in Lebanon in recent weeks he brought news about death, casualties and displacement.

The Australian government organized in response evacuation flights for Australian residents and it’s insistence for all Australians in Lebanon to profit from the earliest available flights due to the unpredictable nature of the conflict.

For greater than 248,000 Australians due to my Lebanese origins and others, it was a really depressing time.

This can also be the case with the escalation of violence in Lebanon it sounded deep with other diasporas in Australia, similar to those from Palestine and Ukraine. These scattered communities share similar experiences of conflict and displacement.

So how do Australians with ties to Lebanon, Gaza or other conflict zones take care of their mental health today? And how can you support others who could also be struggling?

Identification with pain and suffering

People with emotional ties to conflict zones abroad discover with the pain and suffering they see and listen to. Australians who share a typical cultural heritage may live in the shadow of events back home and experience what research called “push-pull” dynamics.

This can mean periods of peace and ease mixed with periods of intense fear, uncertainty and emotional pain as unpleasant events unfold.

For some, insomnia, irritability, fear, frustration, uncertainty and emotional exhaustion mix. People are not any longer isolated from their country of origin. Rather, global events impact their personal and social lives and mental health.

The way people in Australia address the interplay between events at home, feelings of powerlessness and mental health is complex. It’s easy to quickly absorb what is going on on. The events are graphic, fascinating and fast-moving.

How to take care of yourself

So what can you do if you notice that the problem affects you or someone close to you?

Get to know your stress triggers. For some, it could be witnessing violence on television news or social media. For others, it could be stories about children and young individuals who have been murdered. Seeing and hearing images and stories will be disturbing if they’re repeated across multiple platforms. Some people might have this minimize their exposure in the media.

Talk to people you trust about how you feel. Describe what is going on and what you have noticed about yourself. If you feel fragile or are concerned about your mental health or the mental health of a loved one, please reach out to your doctor for support.

Reconnect and strengthen your personal support networks. Supportive cultural connections and family members, in addition to other forms of support, including friends and colleagues, can protect against the onset or worsening of mental disorders.

Getting help early can provide you with more support options. It may make it easier to accept help in the future.

Refer to trusted sources of information and adjust your media exposure. While many individuals should learn about the events, the news reports and pictures are disturbing.

Switch on activity that can comfort you and distract you and make your situation safer. This may include:

• spending time with family members or friends

• spiritual, faith or religious reconnection

• distraction through music or food.

Avoid taking your devices to bed to protect your sleep and mental health.

How to support others

If you work with or support someone affected by this condition, please do not forget that it is a time of sensitivity and compassion. Show that you are concerned and at the same time check that the whole lot is OK. Ask:

What can be most helpful in our support to you?

What is the best way for me/the team at work to support you and be there for you?

It can also be essential to ask about the person’s mental health. You can ask:

As events unfold, how do you feel at home now?

When assessing an individual’s experience, do not forget that it just isn’t at all times essential to know personal details or circumstances in detail. It is very important to show real interest, construct trust and psychological safety. Aim at really listenas a substitute of listening to give you the chance to respond.

As a friend, colleague or manager, offering support and listening without judgment will help person under the influence of global disasters.

In times like these, validation, human connection and support are some of the best things you can do to protect your and others’ mental health.