At the starting of December 2024, Hamas announced a serious license: it was prepared for everlasting future management From Gaza to the unity of the Palestinian Committee, working along with his foremost political rival, Fatah, to create a body.

Fatah, party President of Palestinian Autonomy Mahmoud AbbasFrom then on, he expressed hesitation before such an agreement – with which he could be battling Israel’s strict opposition And probably also the USA. . But the proven fact that Hamas would hit such a fraction agreement He took the weapon For the right to rule, gauze indicates primarily the weakened position of the combat group after greater than a 12 months of the destructive war of Israel in Gaza.

Last Israel Weapon suspension agreement In Lebanon, he damaged Hamas’s perspectives much more, limiting the direct support of Hezbollah in Gaza, and as for Iran – leaving him much more isolated.

Hamas, trimmed on all pages, from my observations as Palestinian policy expertHe modified the differential account for the world of war after gas. The proven fact that Egypt has pressed the Fatah-Hamas contract is also noteworthy, because what ultimately goes through in terms of gauze management, probably is dependent upon the wishes of the rule in Cairo and Israel, from which each sees gauze as a yard of its national security.

Egyptian plan for Gaza

Egypt, with silent support from the United States, focused on what the future Palestinian political agreement in Gaza could appear like. An try to solve this vacuum of security and management, Egypt he convened leaders Both about Fatah and Hamas traffic in the hope of making a management committee to take over the management of gauze after the war.

In Cairo, Egyptian mediators proposed to determine the Social Support Committee, which consists of Palestinian professionals and technocrat who should not related to Fatah or Hamas. Abbas, who as the leader of the Palestinian authority has the authority of management on the West Bank, is subject to Israeli approval you’ve gotten to verify Committee.

The rapid acceptance of the Egyptian formula by Hamas indicates a group standing in the face of a completely different security and organizational environment than before the escalation of the conflict with Israel.

Moving regional dynamics

When Hamas began his attacks on October 7, 2023, yes, knowing that he could depend on energetic military support from Hesbollah allies in neighboring Lebanon and ongoing financial and diplomatic protection from Iran.

Fast forward 14 months position of the so -called Tehran’s “resistance” looks rather more fragile. Hezbollah and the Israeli months of violence in the Tit-For-Tat along the Israeli-Library border intensified to the full war that Israel saw Expand your brutal military campaign to southern Lebanon. Hezbollah emerged from this fight seriously wounded, having He lost many members His leadership for Israeli bombs.

Another suspension of weapons from November 26 effectively pulled Hezbollah out of the conflict in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Iran, who mentioned the rounds of rocket salvos with Israel, has to date eagerly ordered a direct confrontation with Israel with Hamas and Hezbollah replacements, attempting to avoid long -term military involvement with Israel.

After limiting this regional military support, Hamas also stands in the face of a modified diplomatic landscape.

From 2012, Qatar hosted the political leader of Hamas on the basis of a contract with the United States. Since then, the small nation of the Persian Gulf acted as a mediator between Hamas and Israel and the United States, which refuse to barter with the group directly.

But at the starting of November Qatar He announced that he was hanging His role in mediation in peace conversations in Gaza, citing dissatisfaction with this process, though suggested Conversations may be recovery And that it mediated again.

In any case, American officials have recently forced a runny nose Snapshot of his political office HamasAnd the political agents of Hamas remained there Apparently it expanded to Turkey.

Qatar also looks at the modified American political scene in which they’re the upcoming Republican Congress and President-Elek Donald Trump It probably exerts an excellent tougher line About Hamas having any political base outside of gauze.

Decimated, each military and politically

In addition to growing insulation, Hamas also suffered deep operational damage during the war in Gaza.

The recent Israeli killing of Hamas Yahya Sinwar leader caused a vacuum at the very top. It happened after Israel has already killed most of the higher military and political leadership Hamas in Gaza, not to say well -known political leaders from outside Gaza, such as the political leader Hamas Ismail Haniyeh, which was murdered in July in Iran.

It is not even clear who creates Hamas leadership in Gaza since December 2024, apart from brother Sinwar, Mohammed, who is a member of the Hamas military wing. It is also unclear whether Hamas members may even communicate with leaders.

For now, the outstanding leader of Hamas Khalil Al-Hayya was involved in talks with Fatah in Egypt. However, the executive committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organization – which Fatah is the dominant faction – rejected the Egyptian proposal.

This doesn’t mean that the proposal is necessarily dead in water – only that Egypt may have to cooperate with Fatah leaders to resolve their fears.

Exhausted Eyes’ Movement about the future

While Hamas has been weakened militarily and politically, there is also a little probability that Hamas won’t remain an ideologically strong force, able to attracting the support of many Palestinians in Gaza, as well as on the west shore and a wider Palestinian diaspora.

But as the ruling entity Hamas appears to be a worn force in the foreseeable future – something that members of the group willingly recognize.

Recently Egyptian Palestinian conversations, although efficiently, indicate how every long-term future for Gaza-lub Palestinians as a whole-implies a more coherent Palestinian political leadership.

Indeed, one among the latest Egyptian plans is that it doesn’t connect Palestinians under a unified government, because the proposed ruling being will only be liable for supervising the Gaza belt.

And the trust between Hamas and Fatah stays low, as it has been since then Hamas took over Gaza Strip in June 2007 After a sudden confrontation with Fatah.

However, even when Hamas and Fatah would comply with the government of unityThe wider reality is that it cannot occur as long as Israel and its international allies, mainly the United States, oppose this.

For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stated it Nor Palestinian Neither Hamas play any role day after the war.

When the war was over

However, in addition to the everlasting Israeli military occupation, it is difficult to see what options exist for Palestinians who’re going forward in the event of unification in Palestinian policy.

When Hamas won a serious victory In the Palestinian legislative elections in January 2006 it was largely as a consequence of Fatah divisions, corruption, and widespread dissatisfaction with what was provided by Oslo’s peace process and a small sign of future progress against the Palestinian state.

Almost 20 years later, none of those realities modified significantly.

Gaza devastation only intensified the humanitarian crisis and the difficulty of the long -term chart of the solution. However, when the war in Gaza is over, there will likely be no options for Arab countries, including Egypt, the United States and a wider international community to assist Palestinians to rebuild the enclave in reconstruction and on the lookout for a certain security measure. Palestinians who live there cannot afford one other management of management.

Abdullah Öcalan, imprisoned leader of the forbidden Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has He called a bunch disarm and dissolve. In a letter read by his political allies in Istanbul in Turkey, on February 27, he wrote: “I am taking historical responsibility for this call … All groups must lie down on weapons, and PKK must dissolve.”

Two days later, the PKK Executive Committee declared the suspension of the weapon to the armed fight with the Turkish state. Conflict that began in 1984 In order to establish an independent Kurdish state in response to the state of the state, he demanded the lives of over 40,000 people and displaced tons of of hundreds of others.

Öcalan was imprisoned on the island south of Istanbul since 1999, when He was captured by Turkish security forces in Kenya. But he remained the leader of the PKK and maintained his strong cult of personality amongst the Kurdish Freedom Movement.

He was a force behind the passage of PKK from its separatist goals in 2000. He argued that the dissolution of Kurdish issue in the Middle East concerned greater autonomy and Kurdish laws through the idea “Democratic confederalism”Built on pillars of direct democracy, not a nation -state model.

In your list Öcalan repeated this argument. The last 200 years of capitalist modernity for breaking the alliance between Kurds and Turks. And he emphasized the importance of a very democratic society and political space for an enduring solution to the Kurdish fight.

The letter of Öcalan turned mainly to the Turkish public and international community and was probably “approved” by the Turkish state. As such, it was somewhat short, sometimes unclear and did not propose an in depth framework with a peaceful process between Turkey and PKK.

But after reading the letter Öcalana, Sırrı Süreya Önder, a member of the Pro-Kurd party of the Comparative Party and Democracy (DEM), shared with journalists with additional attention Öcalan.

Öcalan he apparently said: “Undoubtedly, in practice, the location of weapons and PKK solution require the recognition of democratic policy and legal framework.” This point suggests that Öcalan’s call for disarmament is only the starting of a protracted trial to end the conflict.

PKK announced that so as to break down and the solution, Öcalan must personally lead this congress. This indicates the expectation that Öcalan will gain some freedom to communicate and manage the process.

Support for the solution

Leading characters from several pro-heal groups have He accepted the order with satisfaction To disarm PKK. This included Mazloum Abdi, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Salih Muslim, a former co -chairman of the Democratic Union (PYD) party in Syria.

Öcalan’s call also received support from the international community. This applies to the USA and Great Britain, which, other than many other nations, recognizes PKK as a terrorist organization. On February 27, USD National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said CNN that the commercial was “significant development”, which “in our opinion will help bring peace in this restless region.”

Perhaps, most significantly, the announcement was Öcalana welcomed almost unanimously by political parties in Turkey. Only the ultra-nationalist parties Dobro and victory oppose the call to solve PKK, perceiving all negotiations with the group as exposing national integrity.

But despite this vital step towards the room, it is difficult to see the inevitable ending of the Kurdish fight in Turkey. The party of justice and development (AKP) and the nationalist movement, which ruled Turkey since 2023. Continuation democratic sphere.

Have replaced by chosen Kurdish mayors with state officials, while imprisoning democratically elected Kurdish politicians. And people in the media, civil society and other democratic movements, similar to the Democratic Congress of the People, criminalized and detained.

At the same time, Türkiye considers SDF and other Kurdish organizations, similar to people protection people (YPG) and PYD for branches of PKK. He supported his militia forces in Syria, the Syrian National Army, to stop the Kurdish autonomous region on its border before reaching political status, recognizing him as a direct threat to national security.

The President of Turkey, Rep Tayyip Erdoğan, warned PKK about further actions if the disarmament process was stopped. In the post on October 1, Erdoğan wrote: “If the promises are not preserved … such as delay, fraud, change of names … We will continue our operations, if necessary until we eliminate the last terrorist.”

This signals the Turkish expectation that they need all groups which might be related to PKK, armed and not armed, also crumble. However, ABDI stated that Öcalan’s call to dissolve PKK does not apply leads to the group. “If there is peace in Turkey, it means that there is no excuse to attack us here in Syria,” said Abdi.

The Syrian National Army has I began the attacks In northern Syria, so as to capture the territory with the SDF, and the fight is particularly intense around the Tishreen dam.

So far, the only positive approach of the Turkish government has been signaling a possible change In the constitutional definition of citizenship beyond ethnic criteria. It could be the first step towards a more pluralistic and integration description of citizenship in Turkey, where people from several ethnic groups have been living for hundreds of years.

There are various concerns about the ways of the dissolution process. But the possibility of peace is invaluable since it opens democratic fighting opportunities. The solution to the Kurdish query, one of the most smoking problems of Turkey, will pave the way for progress in other areas, similar to democratization and freedom of expression.

The fall of President Bashar Assad will not only affect 24 million Syrians who lived – and suffered a big extent – under his brutal rule. An influence can be felt above the border in Lebanon.

The fall of Assad’s government is one other blow to his Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, who was already Encouraging with Israel’s conflict, which weakened its capabilities and decimated his leadership. But many others in Lebanon will be rejoicingespecially 1.5 million Refugees who escaped from Syria Escar Assad and a 13-year civil war.

As Expert in the field of Library history and cultureI believe that waves from Syria needs to be expected. Contemporary stories of each countries are related, and by a 54-year rule, the Assad family has repeatedly intervened in Lebanon-mainly to the detriment of their people, economy and stability.

Hezbollah and assad: mutual relationship

Since its inception in the early Eighties, Hezbollah benefited from the strong support of the Syrian regime. There They were tension moments Certainly between them – especially in the middle of the civil war in Lebanon. But in general, Hezbollah was in a position to depend on Syria for a weaponTraining and easy land Access to Iran.

And this agreement was mutual. When Assad’s rule was questioned in 2011 and the country went to the civil war, Hezbollah fighters He moved to Syria strengthen government troops.

But by becoming the strongest paramilitary being in Lebanon, Hezbollah saw his fortune suffered. The last war with Israel seriously weakened the group and forced her to Acceptance of a weapon suspension agreement This covers the path towards disarmament.

In addition, Lebanese support for Hezbollah modified dramatically, with the group’s open calls to stop her paramilitary activity. The war of the group with Israel cost life 3,700 people in Lebanonand around 1.2 million Lebanese -around one fifth population-internally displaced from their homes. Meanwhile, economic loss Lebanon is estimated in billions of dollars.

Iran, Assad and Hezbollah triangle

It isn’t any accident that the recent progress of the rebels led to the refutation of Assad On the same day, the suspension of Israel-Hezbollah weapons was signed. Hesbollah forces were exhausted, and many of their warriors withdrew from Syria strengthen the southern border of Lebanon.

Syrian rebels selected this moment to hit, knowing that Iran was also too thin with the war of Israel-Hezbollahu to return to help help.

The domino effect caused Iran to unravel “Iran”Resistance axis. “Certainly Tehran lost hard over Syria and Lebanon.

The proven fact that the fall of Assad coincides with the potential end of the Syria civil war and the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah alliance; It is the starting of the Art Nouveau war that helped anchor this three -sided relationship.

In 2011 Arabian spring -Seria pro-democracy and protests of human rights that began in Tunisia-she made to Syria. Anti -ssad protests broke out in Daraa and soon spread to the foremost cities, reminiscent of Homs, Hama and The Capital, Damascus.

Syrian government He answered with brutalityordering soldiers to shoot protesters, while stopping and torturing hundreds of men and boys.

International Outrage appeared. But the Syrian government remained in power with the support of Iran and Hezbollah. In fact, in addition to Hezbollah fighters, the Corps of the Revolutionary Guard Iran also advised Assad and fought alongside his army against the Syrian nation.

For Tehran and his proxy, Hezbollah, this helped in the further “andranization” of the region – that’s, the spread of the ideology of the Iranian revolution and Conversion of Syria and Lebanon to the Shiite states.

Syria is principally a Sunni Muslim. Under the family of Assad ruled it Alawite minority – A gaggle that practices a branch of Shiite Islam. Hezbollah, as a Shiite terrorist group, swore loyalty to the highest leader of Iran in his own 1985 manifesto.

The Palestinian cause was one other uniting factor between these three. The revolutionary Iran Credo after 1979 “Death for Israel” is a sentiment shared by the Assad regime and Hezbollah fighters. However, Assad might have been less loud about this – especially since he tried to barter with Israel over the occupied Golan Heights.

Syria, Iran and Hezbollah Assad weren’t only united by radicalism and their desire to control the region. They also divided economic interests and benefited from trade in illegal drugs, In particular, CaptagonAmphetamine stimulant, which is mass -produced in Syria under the patronage of Assad and Iran. The drug is another and significant source of income at a time when international sanctions were bitten.

With the help of Hezbollah and his control over the airport and Lebanon’s seaport, the drug has turn into widely available in the Persian Gulf. Its highly addictive nature is an actual threat in the Arab world, and Assad used it to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia Restoration of membership in Syria in the Arab League In 2023, in return, the Syrian regime agreed to redirect drug trafficking elsewhere.

Assad’s heritage

Along with the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the fall of the Syrian regime, the region’s “ianization” is no less than detained.

Nevertheless, 54 years of family rule of Assad in Syria left a protracted trace of destruction in neighboring Lebanon.

IN June 1976 Syria sent over 25,000 soldiers Above the border to place an end to the Lebanese civil war. His presence was to be temporary, but was prolonged to over 4 many years.

Before the Lebanese civil war ended in 1991, Syria took complete control over Lebanon territory, in addition to national and international matters. Serious violations of human rights, including disappearance, illegal detention, torture and torture, have been reported Murder of political characters and journalists.

In February 2005, Lebanese Prime Minister Rafot Hariri – which publicly opposed the Syrian hegemony in Lebanon – he was murdered in an attack in which Assad and Senior Syrian officers They were strongly involved.

The murder caused Cedar revolutionWhen tons of of hundreds of Lebanese inhabitants got here out into the streets, demanding the immediate departure of Syrian forces.

Although Syrian forces left Lebanon, the Syrian regime continued to interfere in the country’s policy through Hezbollah, which transformed right into a political and military organization and entered the government in 2008.

From that moment, Hezbollah would block every decision that didn’t serve the interests of Syria and Iran. For example, Hezbollah and his allies vetoed every presidential candidate who didn’t support the Syrian regime – a politician who fell into Lebanon in the prolonged Presidential vacuum.

Uncertain future

While Hezbollah can proceed to operate in Lebanon and under the umbrella of Iran, the fall of Assad signifies that it’s devoid of deliveries.

Without Syria, Hezbollah doesn’t have quick access to Iranian fighters and weapons – and the newly signed suspension of weapons between Lebanon and Israel confirms the commitment of Lebanon in A UN resolution Calling for disarming Hezbollah.

And even though it isn’t clear what New Syria will appear to be, no less than at the moment the populations of Lebanon and Syria – they each suffered under brutal rule and abuse of Hezbollah – they can enjoy after the departure of a person answerable for so many pain.