The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) has raised the phobia threat level in Australia from “possible” to “probable”, with ASIO chief Mike Burgess delivering a grim assessment of a “deteriorating security situation”.
A threat level of ‘likely’ signifies that ASIO assesses that there’s a greater than 50% probability of an attack or planning of an attack in the subsequent 12 months. It doesn’t mean that there’s intelligence of a currently planned attack or an expectation of an imminent attack.
Burgess appeared at a news conference alongside Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Attorney General Mark Dreyfus on Monday. In a recent government reshuffle, ASIO was moved from the Home Secretary to Dreyfus.
Earlier, Burgess reported on a gathering of the National Security Committee.
Burgess warned in his statement: “We are seeing an increase in extremism.
“More and more Australians have gotten radicalised, and radicalised faster. More and more Australians are embracing a more diverse range of maximum ideologies, and an increasing number of Australians are prepared to use violence to advance their cause.
“Politically motivated violence has now become our primary security concern, alongside espionage and foreign interference,” he said.
Politically motivated violence includes terrorism, but is broader, encompassing any act of violence or threats geared toward achieving a political goal. This includes violent protests and attacks on politicians or democratic institutions.
“We are witnessing an increase in political polarization and intolerance, indecent debates and unrest,” Burgess said.
“Anti-authority beliefs are on the rise; trust in institutions is declining; provocative and inflammatory behavior is becoming the norm.
“Individuals are embracing anti-authoritarian ideologies, conspiracy theories, and a variety of grievances. Some are combining multiple beliefs to create new hybrid ideologies. Many of these individuals will not necessarily espouse views of violence, but may still see violence as a legitimate means of achieving political or social change.”
These aspects have created “a security climate that’s more conducive to violence.
“As polarisation, frustration and perceived injustices grow, ASIO predicts an increase in politically motivated violence – including terrorism – across all ideological lines. Attacks are likely to occur with little or no warning and will be difficult to detect.”
Amid rising tensions within the Middle East, Burgess warned that escalating the conflict within the region, especially in southern Lebanon, “will create further tensions, exacerbate tensions and potentially lead to radicalization.”
However, he added that the choice to raise the threat level was not a direct response to Israel’s war in Gaza or other events within the Middle East.
“At this stage, we don’t consider that any of the terrorist plots we investigated last 12 months were directly inspired by Gaza.
“Terrorist leaders do not inspire ground attacks.”
But he added that the conflict also had an indirect impact.
“The conflict has fuelled discontent, sparked protests, deepened divisions, undermined social cohesion and increased intolerance.”
Burgess said that due to the complex dynamics involved, it could be incorrect “to suggest that the next terrorist attack or conspiracy is likely to be motivated by a distorted view of a particular religion or a particular ideology. The threat is pervasive.”
In the past 4 months, there have been eight attacks or disruptions in Australia that involved alleged terrorism or were investigated as potential terrorist acts. Burgess’ statement said all of them underlined 4 fundamental features of the counter-terrorism landscape:
The threat of lone actors. The almost definitely terrorist attack is an attack by a person or a small group of individuals using primitive weapons similar to knives, improvised explosives or firearms.
Accelerating radicalization. Individuals commit violence with little or no warning and little or no planning. Acts of violence could also be almost spontaneous or purely reactive.
Increase within the variety of minors supporting violent extremism. In recent cases, the oldest alleged perpetrator was 21, while the youngest was 14. Extremist ideologies, conspiracy theories and disinformation are thriving in the web ecosystem, with young Australians particularly vulnerable
Various aspects of extremism. When we last raised the threat level, individuals were often radicalized by long-term exposure to a selected extremist ideology or authority. Now, individuals are motivated by a wide range of grievances and personalized narratives. In a few of the cases I actually have referred to, the alleged perpetrators appear to be motivated by extreme religious beliefs; in others by nationalist and racist beliefs.
Burgess said these aspects make threats increasingly difficult to predict and discover.
“The drivers of radicalization, disaffection, and extremism are growing and interacting in ways now we have not seen before, making a security climate that may be very different from the one which existed after we last raised the threat level.
“This challenge is compounded by the internet and social media, key platforms for radicalization, and the use of encryption by each of our subjects.”
Burgess stressed that “likely” didn’t mean “inevitable” and said Australians must be “aware but not fearful”.
Albanese stressed the importance of language.
“My message to political leaders is that words matter and it’s important for people to engage in a respectful way. People shouldn’t make statements that they know are wrong in order to secure a short-term political advantage, which is what we’ve just seen.”
The Prime Minister also noted that this is similar threat level that was in place in Australia for greater than eight years before it was lowered in November 2022.
Dreyfus said ASIO and the law enforcement agencies it partners with have extensive experience in neutralising threats.