Billions of dollars have been paid out from people around the globe on voter betting sites equivalent to Polymarket, hoping they will money in on the following US presidentreports.

Platforms equivalent to Polymarket, which should not open to upside from the US, have recorded over $3.6 billion in bets on the 2024 presidential election, with $1.5 billion placed on current President-elect Donald Trump and 1 $1 billion for Vice President Kamala Harris. Bets on election leads to swing states have popped up, raising greater than $270 million on Polymarket and greater than $120 million on legal sports betting platform Kalshi, one other sports betting app.

The highest betting volume was recorded in Pennsylvania, raising $47 million across each platforms. Michigan and Georgia were in second place, and the remaining states were in the highest fifteen states with high trade volume. Swing stock betting on each Polymarket and Kalshi accounted for nearly half of the full stock trading volume. Experts equivalent to Dartmouth University economics professor Eric Zitzewitz should not surprised by the bet on swing states because voters consider them a very powerful within the election. “There’s not quite a bit of interest within the query, ‘Will Republicans win Alabama?’ or “Will Democrats win California?” he said.

“People are kind of interested in the states that will decide the election.”

According to , a bet on Polymarket from a user named “Theo” netted greater than $28 million for Trump to secure the White House for a second term, winning 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 226. The election results helped the user win almost $83.5 million using 11 different accounts on different platforms.

While Polymarket operations were halted within the states by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, CEO Shayne Coplan said plans have begun to return. But with “Theo,” there was skepticism. France’s gaming regulator has launched an investigation into the compliance of Polymarket’s policies with its regulations.

Zitzewitz believes betting in swing states provided an interesting perspective on the 2024 election cycle because incoming bets gave voters an early idea of ​​which candidate was leading in comparison with traditional polls. “People who trade the markets trying to make money have a very strong incentive to seek out the most up-to-date news so they can catch up with others and thereby make some money,” Zizewitz said.

“As a result, markets tend to move immediately upon receipt of information.”

People are closely watching the election results, and the four-time indicted businessman has begun to fill his cabinet with allies. Trump also secured the general popular vote, unlike what he did in 2016 against former first lady Hilary Clinton, despite winning more electoral votes.

The United States is experiencing the largest-ever boom in investment in clean energy production, driven by laws corresponding to the bipartisan bill Act on infrastructure investments and employment and Act on reducing inflation.

They have these rights used billions of dollars government support to drive private sector investment in clean energy supply chains across the country.

For several years, one of us, Jay Turner, and his students at Wellesley College have been tracking clean energy investments in the U.S. and sharing the data on the website The big green machine website. This study shows that since the Inflation Control Act went into effect in 2022, firms have announced 225 projects with a complete investment of $127 billion and the creation of greater than 131,000 recent jobs.

You can have seen on the news that these projects are in danger of failure or significant delays. In August 2024, the Financial Times reported this. 40% of over 100 projects he assessed that they were delayed. These include battery production, renewable energy and metals and hydrogen projects, in addition to semiconductor manufacturing plants. The technology industry magazine The Information recently warned of this 1 in 4 firms left from government subsidies for investment in batteries.

We checked all 23 battery cell factories announced or prolonged since the Inflation Reduction Act was signed into law – just about all of them are gigafactories that are expected to supply greater than 1 gigawatt-hour of battery cell capability. These factories have one of the highest employment potentials of all the projects supported by the Act.

We wanted to search out out whether the U.S. clean energy production boom was about to fizzle out. Most of what we learned is reassuring.

The largest battery factories are on the right track

While exact investment amounts are difficult to find out, our study shows that planned capital expenditure will likely be $52 billion, which would supply 490 gigawatt-hours of battery production capability per yr – enough to place about 5 million recent electric vehicles on the road.

While not all 23 firms have announced hiring plans, the facilities are expected to create nearly 30,000 recent jobs, with projects primarily in the U.S. Southeast, Midwest and Southwest.

We desired to know whether these projects were progressing as planned or whether there have been delays or problems.

To do that, we first contacted local and state economic development agencies. In many cases, local and state tax incentives support these projects. Where possible, we’ve got tried to substantiate the status of the project through public data Or formal announcements. In other cases, we looked for messages to see in the event that they existed construction proof Or hiring.

Our study shows that 13 of 23 projects are on track, with total planned capital investment exceeding $40 billion and production capability of nearly 352 gigawatt hours per yr. Importantly, they include most of the largest projects with the largest investments and expected production.

Our calculations show that 77% of total planned capital investment, 79% of proposed jobs, and 72% of planned battery production are on track, meaning the project is more likely to be accomplished roughly on time and overall as expected. result. level of investment and employment.

Three projects are on the bubble. These have shown progress but have experienced delays in construction or financing.

Five others show deeper signs of distress. We do not yet have enough information to attract conclusions about the two projects.

An example of an ongoing project is the Envision AESC battery plant in Florence, South Carolina. His the scale has been enlarged twice because it was first announced in December 2022. It is now a $3 billion investment with the goal of producing 30 gigawatt-hours of batteries per yr supplies the BMW factory in Woodruff, South Carolina.

In early October 2024, South Carolina Secretary of Commerce Harry Lightsey visited the Envision i facility published a video. Construction of the plant began in February 2024, and 850 employees are working six days every week to finish the 1.4 million square foot facility by August 2025. Once full production begins, the project will likely be accomplished expected to rent 2,700 people.

The 2024 elections could end or speed up the boom

However, much depends on what’s going to occur in the upcoming elections.

Our data suggests that the real risk facing these projects and projects like them is not sluggish demand for electric vehicles, as some suggest – in fact demand continues to grow. It’s not the local opposition that did it either it only slowed down just a few projects.

The the biggest risk is policy change. Many of these projects are counting on advanced manufacturing tax credits approved by the Inflation Reduction Act through 2032.

During the campaign, Republicans are promising to repeal key laws under Biden, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which incorporates funding for grants and loans to support clean energy, in addition to tax incentives to support domestic manufacturing.

While an entire repeal of the Act could also be unlikely, an an administration hostile to scrub energy redirect unspent funds to other purposes, slow the pace of grants or loans by slow project approvals, or find other ways to make tax incentives tougher to acquire. Although our research focused on the battery industry, concerns concern investments in wind energy AND solar energy too.

So will the great U.S. boom in clean energy production soon come to an end? Our data is optimistic, but the policy is uncertain.

Greenhouse gas offsetting has develop into big business as more and more firms promise climate protection but are unable to realize their goals on their very own.

When an organization buys carbon offsets, it’s paying elsewhere for a project to cut back greenhouse gas emissions on its behalf – for instance, by planting trees or generating renewable energy. The idea is this reducing greenhouse gas emissions anywhere it pays off for the worldwide climate.

But not all offsets have the identical value. Is growing skepticism about multiple offsets sold on voluntary carbon markets. Unlike compliance markets, where firms buy and sell a limited number of allowances issued by regulators, these voluntary carbon markets have few rules that may be consistently enforced. Investigations have shown that many voluntary offset projects, forest management projects particularly, despite their claims, they’ve done little to profit the climate.

AND we concentrate on sustainable finance and company governance. Me and my colleagues recently conducted the primary one a scientific, evidence-based have a look at the worldwide landscape of voluntary greenhouse gas offsets utilized by a whole lot of large, publicly traded firms world wide.

The results raise questions on how some firms use these offsets and query the effectiveness of voluntary carbon markets – not less than of their current state – in supporting global transition to net zero emissions.

Which firms use low-quality offsets may surprise you

Our evaluation shows that the worldwide carbon offset market has grown to encompass a big selection of offset projects. Some produce renewable energy, contribute to energy-efficient homes and appliances, or capture and store carbon dioxide. Others protect forests and meadows. Most of them are based in Asia, Africa and the Americas, but in addition they exist in other regions.

Companies use these projects boost your environmental claims to assist attract investors, customers and support from various groups. This practice increased dramaticallyfrom virtually zero in 2005 to about 30 million metric tons of carbon offsets per 12 months in 2022. Investment banking firm Morgan Stanley in 2023 predicted that the voluntary offset market would be grow to roughly $100 billion by 2030 and to roughly $250 billion by 2050.

For our evaluationWe examined 866 listed firms that used offsets between 2005 and 2021.

We found that enormous firms with a high proportion of large institutional investors and commitments to realize net zero emissions are particularly lively in voluntary carbon markets.

Our results also reveal a peculiar pattern: industries with relatively low emissions, equivalent to services and the financial industry, use offsets much more intensively. Some used offsets for just about all of their declared emissions cuts.

In contrast, high-emission industries equivalent to oil and gas, utilities and transportation used negligible offsetting amounts in comparison with their large carbon footprints.

These facts call into query the effectiveness of voluntary carbon markets in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. They also raise questions on the motives for firms to make use of offsets.

Why firms depend on offsets: 2 explanations

One explanation for these patterns is that offsetting is a technique to “outsource” efforts to transition away from greenhouse gas emissions. For firms with a smaller carbon footprint, it’s cheaper to purchase offsets than to make costly investments in reducing their very own emissions.

At the identical time, we found that firms with large emissions were more likely to cut back their very own emissions themselves because it might be more costly to offset huge amounts of emissions yearly into the indefinite future.

A more pernicious explanation for the rise of voluntary offsets is that offsets enable greenwashing. From this point of view, firms use offsets to cheaply refresh their image towards naive stakeholders who are not well informed in regards to the quality of offsets. Agencies offset projects the likelihood of meeting their climate claims, in addition to other indicators of the credibility of offsets. Our review of pricing and rankings data shows that projects rated as low quality have significantly lower prices.

We found that relatively few of the 1,413 offset projects utilized by the businesses in our sample were verified as top quality by an external carbon emission rating agency. Most of the offset loans that firms used were strikingly cheap. Prices for over 70% of withdrawn offsets have reached prices below $4 per tonne.

These explanations are not mutually exclusive. We found that low-carbon firms can easily change their competitor rankings on ESG performance – how well they perform on environmental, social and governance issues – by offsetting a small amount of emissions.

Fixing the voluntary marketplace for the longer term

Our findings have essential implications for policymakers and regulators debating the principles of voluntary carbon markets.

The data suggests that voluntary carbon markets are currently flooded with low-cost, low-quality offsets, likely as a consequence of an absence of guidelines and fairness regulations for voluntary carbon markets, ensuring the transparency and authenticity of offset projects. The lack of guidelines might also encourage the use of low-quality offsets.

Since in Art. Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement creates rules on carbon markets and the way countries can cooperate to realize climate goals, agreeing on learn how to implement these rules was a challenge. For the principles to be effective, negotiators must agree on project eligibility and disclosure standards, amongst other things.

In April 2024 SBTithe world’s leading science-based arbiter of corporate climate goals it added urgency to the method when it announced it might enable firms to fulfill carbon targets by offsetting carbon emissions to cover emissions of their supply chains.

Next month, the U.S. Departments of Treasury, Energy and Agriculture jointly issued a political statement establishing its own model rules for regulating voluntary emissions markets. “Voluntary carbon markets can help unleash the power of private markets to reduce emissions, but this will only be possible if we address the significant challenges that exist,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the time.

Article 6 i carbon offset standards are on the agenda of the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 on November 11-22 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

With multiple segments of voluntary carbon markets uncertainThe COP29 summit may prove to be a decisive moment as as to if voluntary carbon offsetting will develop into an actual factor contributing to decarbonization in the longer term.