Requirements of British, French, German and Polish leaders in Kiev last weekend that Russia agrees to a 30-day suspension of weapons in Ukraine or face the possible “massive” sanctions in Moscow, as you would possibly expect. In the Kremlin’s speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin raised European rights to seek advice from Russia “in a rude way and with the help of an ultimatum.”

However, he proposed a counter -invitation: an invite to Ukraine to conduct direct conversations in the Turkish city of Istanbul. Putin called the conversation “the first step towards a long -term, lasting room.” The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, accepted the invitation and announced that he personally participates in conversations. He threw Putin to do the identical.

But on the eve of conversations it was announced that no, Putin wouldn’t participate, and a younger delegation can be sent in his place. Zelensky, who’s in Turkey for talks with the Turkish president, Rep Tayyip Erdoğan, called the Russian envoy “false” and accused Moscow of sending “stand-in props”.

Well, Putin’s show, together with the refusal of Russia to rearrange a ceasefire as a precursor of negotiations, probably says every little thing it’s worthwhile to find out about whether Moscow really intends to finish the war. But no matter this conversation are the primary to happen directly between the 2 fighting parties from the early weeks of the Russian full -scale invasion.

The Russian delegation in Istanbul is led by Vladimir Medinsky, an adviser to Putin, who had the previous round of direct peace conversations with Ukraine. This is evidence, as also noted by Stefan Wolff and Tethana Malyarenko, that Russia wants conversations to be based on the identical frame as in 2022 – namely forcing Ukraine to simply accept significant restrictions for her military and sovereignty.

Wolff and Malyarenko, who’re two regular colleagues of our relationship with the war in Ukraine, explain that Russian territorial requirements have develop into more controversial because the starting of the war. The current position of Russia lies in the indisputable fact that the international recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, the People’s Republic of Doniecki and Luhansk and the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as “Imperative.”

This is blurred for Ukraine. But Wolff and Malyarenko suggest that there could also be some flexibility to assume that some parts of Ukrainian territory are under temporary Russian in exchange for peace.

The problem, they write, is that almost all of the territory currently occupies Russia, including Crimea and Earth on the banks of the Azov Sea, has a key strategic value for Russia. Meanwhile, Donetsk and Luhansk have a big economic value because of resources.

In any case, there is no such thing as a guarantee that the territorial concessions from Kiev would now put the everlasting end of the war, Wolff and Malyarenko will write. This is because of the indisputable fact that “it does not apply to the basic issue of dealing with the vengeance and revisionist self -selfage on the threshold of Europe.”

The room between India and Pakistan, two countries that frequently apply for control over the disputed cashmere region, change into equally difficult to seek out. Several rounds of military strikes, attributable to a terrorist attack in Kashmir administered by an Indian in April, who killed at the least 31 people, recently brought nuclear powers to the war than for many years.

The Trump administration initially expressed reluctance to interact, saying that “it was not our business.” But fairly quickly escalated warfare, raising the angle of nuclear war, US officials entered and talked about each countries. It seems that the suspension of the weapon has been agreed that it had been taken for almost every week.

Alex Waterman and Sudhir Selvaraj, Experts for Peace Studies on the University of Bradford, say that the suspension of weapons is “extremely uncertain peace”.

That each side were agreed – and revered – earlier, are the rationale for optimism, they write. But cross -border tensions have increased in recent years. Waterman and Selvaraj claim that it was a part of the strategy utilized by the powerful army of Pakistan to distract attention from political and economic crises at home.

The voltages remain high and might spread again in some unspecified time in the future. For example, some decisions made by India after a recent terrorist attack, comparable to suspension of the treaty regulating rivers in the Indus basin, may force further support for combat groups in Kashmir. Despite the American offer of mediating conversations between two countries, a deeper resolution looks distant.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump ends his 4 -day trip across the Middle East. In his visit he sat down with the Saudi Crown Prince and Emir Katari (in addition to the leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa) to debate strengthening economic ties and security.

In this sense, the journey was an enormous success. Trump has signed an arms agreement price $ 142 billion (107 billion kilos) with Saudi Arabia and agreements with Qatar, which in keeping with the White House “will generate economic exchange worth at least 1.2 trillion USD”.

Adam Hanieh, a professor of political economy on the University of Exeter, explains that such findings are a part of an extended history in which the monarchy of the Persian Gulf supported the architecture of American global power.

In this text, Hanieh is investigating how huge income amounts generated by the nationalized oil industry in the twentieth century invested in American financial markets. He writes, he writes that Gulf States had significant aspects contributing to the event of the US as global financial force.

In return, the US promised military protection, which caused a network of American military bases throughout the region. As Trump’s wealthy greeting in the Middle East shows, the connection between the monarchs of the USA and the Persian Gulf looks solid.

But so much has modified over the past 20 years, says Hanieh, referring to China’s growth as a world production center. The bay is a critical line of energy life for Beijing, while China’s demand for oil, gas and petrochemical shall be a crucial a part of the economic way forward for the Persian Gulf.

Trump shouldn’t be foreign to the competition with China, as his first five months of office showed. The Tit-for Tat Tariffs, which the USA and China imposed one another quickly overcame snowy duties, as much as 145% on Chinese goods that wish to enter the USA.

However, after weeks of signaling that tariff levels may decrease, the US and Chinese officials announced this week that American tariffs for Chinese goods will fall to 30% for a period of 90 days, while Chinese tariffs for American products will fall to 10%. Trade negotiations between the 2 countries will proceed.

We asked Chee Meng Tan, assistant to a business economy professor on the University of Nottingham, which suggests a contract for China. He says that the tariff reduction provided China with a really needed relief when he tries to repair his sick economy.

But China ultimately hope to cut back American penalties to about 10%, in keeping with the remainder of the world. And, as Tan explains, there are more China to persuade Trump’s administration to further reduce the tariffs. The key shall be to make sure the flow of critical minerals to the USA and ensure its support for US agriculture, a crucial base of political support.

China must get entangled in the US and lower the US tariffs as much as possible. But he’ll want to have a look at other options, writes Tan, as a substitute of counting on the unpredictable Trump. The next 90 days is a giant deal for Beijing.

Negotiations to finish the conflict between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan of the Workers’ Party (PKK) have adopted a particular dimension. On May 12, two months after the imprisoned leader of PKK, Abdullah Öcalan, wrote a letter during which he called the group to position the weapon, he announced that he would collapse.

PKK, who fights for greater Kurdish rights and autonomy, has Several conditions were outlined Is considered essential to dissolve. He insists that Öcalan conducts and manage the peace process that the best to democratic policy in Turkey was recognized and that the group receives solid legal guarantees.

On the one hand, it seems that there’s a fantastic eager for the room between Turkey and PKK. This is proved by positive reactions to the statement of PKK at each national and abroad.

Turkish President, Rep Tayyip Erdoğan, said PKK’s Disconnection of terror He opened “the door of the new era in every area, namely strengthening the policy and democratic ability.”

However, there’s skepticism. Türkiye perceives the peace process completely in a different way than the Kurds, referring to it as an element of the federal government initiative “Turkey -free”. Instead, the Kurdish movement adopted the title of February Öcalan’s letter “Call for peace and democratic society”.

Many also see Erdoğan’s readiness to unravel the Kurdish problem as Political maneuver by the ruling party of justice and development (AKP). Setting up as a celebration that ended the a long time of “terror” by the hands of PKK would allow AKP consolidate it under.

But despite this, there are clear the explanation why each the Turkish state and PKK will now come to the negotiating table. One of the leading reasons is the changing geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East.

At the tip of 2024, the Bashara Al-Assad regime was overthrown in Syria, and the country was taken over by Islamistic fighters. The influence of Iran was also weakened after the autumn of the regional a part of the Proxy network, especially Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and recently Houthi in Yemen.

Meanwhile, Israel continues the war in Gaza. And he intensified his military operations in Syria, especially near Israel Golan Heights, together with open words of support for Syria religious communities.

At the identical time, Donald Trump returned to the White House and re -opened the door to the dialogue with Iran as a part of the nuclear program. The region’s policy is transformed, and leaders within the Middle East change properly.

For PKK and its wider political base, the peace process with Turkey offers a approach to equal citizenship, democratic participation and long -term ID for Kurds within the Middle East after almost a century of fighting.

This was signaled by Kurdish National Conference In April 2025, in a conference, during which various parties and Kurdish organizations participated, she emphasized the importance of strategic coordination between Kurds within the region.

For Turkey, a room from PKK would now reduce a weakened Iran’s ability To design power west. Some groups suspected of connecting to PKK, corresponding to Sinjar retaining units in North Iraq, were not directly supported by Iran.

The service of the PKK conflict through Turkey and a wider Kurdish issue often also complicated his commitment to the West. For example, human rights groups I accused Turkey Permission for the Syrian National Army (a coalition of armed groups in northern Syria) to act impunity for Kurdish civilians in areas beyond its control.

This caused friction within the diplomatic range of Turkey within the USA and Europe. By solving the long -term Kurdish issue, Ankara could put the foundations for more stable relations with the West. These relationships are actually particularly vital because Türkiye desires to play an increasingly key role in European security.

This is Serving as a mediator In negotiations to finish the war for Ukraine. And Erdoğan even has Offered to the host Direct conversations between the Ukrainian president Volodymr Zelensky and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Istanbul.

Building forward road

PKK dissolving is not going to guarantee peace in Turkey. The Kurdowsians expect equal citizenship and the tip of the federal government’s practice of removing chosen mayors and replacing them with trusters appointed by the state.

They also demand the discharge of political prisoners and reforms to Turkey in anti -terrorist rights, Who critics say They are sometimes used to suppress opposition. These issues shall be discussed in parliament in the approaching days, with talks concerning the recent structure, which is able to happen in autumn.

Negotiations is not going to be easy. The Kurds were persistently marked as rebels, traitors and terrorists from the start of the Turkish Republic in 1923. It is not going to be easy to change the rooted opinions from day after day.

Özgür Özel, leader of the principal opposition of the People’s Party (CHP) of Turkey, has He emphasized the importance solving Kurdish issue peacefully and democratically. But it isn’t clear whether his views reflect the views of his base of supporters and Turkish society more broadly.

Türkiye must proceed to be democratized to present the peace process a greater probability of success. The vital civil society of the nation currently operates under the intensive pressure of the state. Giving him more voice will help connect the deeply divided society of Turkey.

It is all the time difficult – if not inconceivable – to predict the longer term when it involves the Middle East policy. However, a brand new balance arises within the Middle East, and on this recent balance, very different players must sit at the identical table.

Ethiopia and Iran signed Memorandum of the findings (Mou) on May 6, 2025. Under it, their national police agencies will cooperate on security and intelligence. This includes combating cross -border crime, sharing intelligence and constructing abilities. They may even divide experiences and training.

For Iran, Mou is a significant step towards strengthening relations with the regional force, which is strategically positioned contained throughout the corner of Africa.

Tehran uses his own Safety apparatus and military capabilities Establishment and extension of political and economic ties with countries in Africa. It accommodates Drone transfers to the Ethiopia government that helped him reverse the wave Tigray warThe separatist fight contained throughout the north of the country, which took place in 2020–2022.

Iran also provided the Sudan army, supervision and combat drones. They were used against paramilitary fast support forces in Sudan Ongoing civil war.

The contract is valid for Ethiopia for 2 reasons.

First of all, it will probably allow the Ethiopia government in Addis Abeba to fight ethnic militias more effectively. It’s vital to Increasing internal instabilityincluding tensions with the hostile factions of the separatist Tigray Liberation Front.

Secondly, the contract appears after meeting In Addis Abeba between the Ethiopian police head, Demelash Gebremichael and a delegation from the regional rival of Iran, the United Arab Emirates (ZAA). The stock exchange focused on the investigation and extraction of cross -border criminals.

The desire for Addis Ababy to work with regional rivals contained throughout the Middle East shows her a pragmatic approach to foreign relations. Ethiopia needs all friends whom he can gather as a drained and weakened state. Since the war, Tigray has fought for the expansion of ethnic militias and confronted his economic adversities. It is just too In the face of the renovated hostility with neighboring Eritrea.

What Iran can gain

Since 2016, Ethiopia has been a gate for Iran to win a foothold in Corner of Africa. This yr, other countries of the region broke off relations with Iran. It happened after Tehran solution from Sub -Saharan Africa below Hassan Rouhani, which was the president in 2013–2021and his priority Nuclear agreement with the USA.

Cutting the bond was also a by -product geopolitical pressure exerted by Saudi Arabia and Zea to countries contained throughout the region. The Middle East desired to throughout the reduction of, if not eliminated, the presence of Iran contained throughout the corner of Africa and the Red Sea Limit support for Houthi Rebels In The ongoing Civil War of Yemeni.

Ethiopia was the primary country in Sub -Saharan Africa, which contained throughout the Nineteen Sixties established relations with Iran. He was also considered considered definitely one among his The best trading partners on the continent before and after 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Strategically and ideologically, it Special relationship He was based on the resolutions of their western and anti-communist monarchs: Shah Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who ruled in 1941–1979AND Emperor Haile Selsie, who was in power in 1930–1974.

After the revolution, Iran-Etiopia relations revived Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which was the president of Iran in 2005–2013. He hunted for an brisk African policy to alleviate the international isolation of Iran and bypass US sanctions.

After Rouhani initially lowered these relationships, they were renovated during his second term. This happened after withdrawal from the USA from the nuclear agreement.

Relations included when Ebrahim Raisi, who was the president of Iran from 2021 to 2024He provided military drones and other help to Addis Abeba through the Tigray war.

What is for Ethiopia

Ethiopia is contained throughout the face of Increasing instability and uncertainty. Tigray war exhausted the resources of the state. Is economic crisis brought on by growing inflation and unemployment.

Addis Abeba continues to be confronted with ethnic tensions. The hostile factions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front stays. He also becomes contained throughout the face of tensions with the militia Amhara Fano, who initially fought next to the federal government against Tigrayan forces. Forced disarmament policy and ongoing land disputes meant that the militia took weapons against the federal government.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also stands contained throughout the face of growing opposition and resistance on the a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a part of his own ethnic group, a lot of the OROMO and their army of Liberation Oromo. The reason for his or her dissatisfaction is Abiy’s imposition of centralized government on their regional state contained throughout the federal system.

Cooperation of security and intelligence with Iran can allow Addis Abeba to fight ethnic militias more effectively.

It would also allow Ethiopia Get ready for a further possible war with neighboring Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea normalized relations and fought with Tygrayan forces. However, tensions between the 2 countries reached again. They were brought on by two points. First, conditions 2022 Premia Protory Pretoria It caused Eritrea to deal together together along together together along along together along together together along along together along along together along along along together along along together together along along along together together along together together together together along along along together together together along along together together along together along along along together along along along along together along along along together together together along along along along along along together along along along along along together together along along together along together together along together together together together together together together together along together together along along along along along together together together along along along together along together together together together together along together together along along together along along together along along together along together along along together together along together along together along together along along along along together along along along together along together together along together along together together together along together together along together together along together along together along along along along together along along together along along together together together together along together together together together together along together together along along along along together along together along together along along along together along together together along along along along together along together together along together along together along together together along along along along along along along together along along together together together together together along together together along along with his strength in Ethiopia. Secondly, the ambitions of Addis ABBY of the acquisition of the Red Sea in Somaliland, detachment in Somalia. Eritrea has He supported the opposition of Somalia to the contract.

Regional Power Games

This is just not the primary time Ethiopia tried to cooperate with two regional rivals – Iran and United ZAA. ZAA is possibly considered considered definitely one among them The best trading partnersalong with Saudi Arabia.

In 2016, Ethiopia was the one country contained throughout the corner of Africa, which didn’t reduce the reference to Iran, although it was under the pressure of Zea and Saudi Arabia. The decision was made by predecessor Abiy, Hailemariam Desalegn, whose term lasted in 2012–2018.

During the war, Tigray received Ethiopia Military drones And one other help of Iran and Zea, next to Turkey.

The civil war in Sudan presented a fair more complicated history. Ethiopia hesitated between commitment to Fast support forces and Sudan armed forces at different points of the conflict.

For his part, Iran has He supported the Sudanese army. ZAA supported the paramilitary forces of quick support.

Ethiopia efforts geared toward strengthening their security ties with Iran and ZAA show a unique case of convergence between regional rivals, who otherwise remained on opposite sides of conflicts in countries comparable to Yemen and Sudan.