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From Reagan to Obama, presidents have left office with “strategic regret” – will it be up to Biden or Trump to leave troops in Iraq and Syria?

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US presidents often leave the White House expressing “strategic regret” over perceived foreign policy failures.

Lyndon Johnson it was haunted By war in Vietnam. Bill Clinton he regretted the failed intervention in Somalia and how “Blackhawk downwhich the incident contributed to his administration’s inaction in response to the Rwandan genocide. Barack Obama said the Libyan intervention was “worst mistake” of his presidency. And after 241 American service personnel died in the tragic bomb attack in 1983 on the Marine Barracks in Beirut, President Ronald Reagan called his decision to send troops to Lebanon “my best regret and my best sadness

With the upcoming U.S. presidential election likely to put an end to the longer term White House ambitions of one in every of the last two occupants of the White House – Joe Biden and Donald Trump – one may ask whether either or each of them will experience similarly “strategic regret.”

As an authority on American foreign policy and grand strategy, I consider that if history is any guide, a possible answer can be found in the writings of each men decisions to maintain American troops in Syria and Iraq.

With branches in each countries – approx 900 in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq – face to face missile attacks from Iran-backed proxy servers recently, the United States may be on the verge of one other event just like the 1983 Beirut terrorist attack, a fact made much more obvious by the recent death three American soldiers in Jordan along the Syrian border.

Another Beirut?

The Middle East has entered an unstable period. The threat to U.S. personnel in the region comes in the shape of each the Islamic State, which is intent on striking Western targets, and an increased risk from a network of Iran-linked militants in search of to avenge what they see as U.S. complicity in Israel’s siege of Gaza.

If there have been an enormous attack on American forces, the occupant of the White House would face two conditions that made departing presidents feel strategic regret: the lack of American lives on their guard and the prospect of being drawn into an expanding war.

The bombing of the United States Marine Corps barracks in Beirut in 1983 killed 241 American soldiers.
AP Photo

By historical standards in the Middle East, conditions may be ripe for strategic regret. Today’s situation in Iraq and Syria is in some ways eerily similar to the circumstances Reagan faced in Beirut, but potentially far more dangerous.

Like Lebanon, U.S. troops are in Iraq and Syria for secondary moderately than primary security purposes.

Soldiers in Lebanon in the early Eighties they were peacekeepers. They support in Iraq and Syria a clean-up mission against the threatened Islamic State group US national security ended with the collapse of the United States caliphate in 2019. According to the newest Pentagon reportthis threat stays extremely weak to the United States today.

As in Lebanon, today’s U.S. troops are also highly vulnerable due to their small numbers, hostile environment, and dependence on supply lines in Iraq, Turkey, and Kurdish forces. This makes them a simple goal for attack.

While Reagan was unaware of the high exposure of the US Marines in 1983, the danger facing U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria today is abundantly clear. American forces faced greater than 160 missile attacks from Iran-backed proxies from mid-October 2023.

Apart from the attack in Jordan, US service members have already suffered serious injuries from rockets, including: dozens traumatic brain injuries. Iran said in April that the U.S. “must answer” with Israel killing three Iranian Quds Force generals in Syria this week, the prospects for more lethal attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria appear to be increasing.

Fostering pride

Some may consider this fear of “another Beirut” to be exaggerated. Finally, proxy attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria dropped for the reason that attack in Jordan in late January, which supplies the impression that deterrence is already working great American retaliatory attacks in February.

A woman holds a portrait of a man in uniform.
A mother holds a photograph of her son, Cpl. US Marines. Edward Johnston during a 2007 ceremony commemorating relations and family members of the victims of the terrorist attack on Americans in Beirut in 1983.
Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images

However, in this case too, history warns. Marine barracks from 1983 the bombing was preceded just a few months earlier by a smaller but still deadly bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut. In the silence that followed the embassy attack, Reagan officials failed to strategically properly rethink U.S. policy or consider troop reductions.

Instead, fueled in part by their determination to make the mission successful, they redoubled their efforts and took on a more aggressive role in the civil war in Lebanon.

It was a terrible decision. In short, the stagnation of violence currently going down in Iraq and Syria can fuel hubris and provide a dangerous sense of false security and determination to stay the course.

Like Lebanon – also Somalia under Clinton AND Vietnam under Johnson – shows that that is the essential condition for strategic regret.

If grief does spread to Iraq and Syria, there may be reason to consider that it may be even deeper for the present occupant of the White House than it was for Reagan in 1983. After the Beirut bombing, Reagan took advantage of the distraction Invasion of Grenada quietly withdraw US troops from Lebanon moderately than escalate military motion and risk additional US bloodshed.

If Biden or Trump, if he replaces the present occupant of the Oval Office in November, they might not have the luxurious of a Grenada-level distraction.

Rather, a highly partisan politics will take hold in Washington, in which the president may seek to avoid being perceived as weak and being criticized for doing too little. Critics Biden charges have already been brought I like this in connection with the attack in Jordan – this number will increase with the following mass event.

How research shows“You see, I told you so” is a robust rhetorical tool in such circumstances.

Ghosts of history

In response, Biden or Trump – how their predecessors – may feel pressure to “attack” militarily. However, anything an excessive amount of risks triggering a response that may lead to lasting and devastating effects.

For example, imagine a scenario in which the US president is provoked to strike Iran following repeated attacks by Tehran’s proxies on US soldiers. Iran in such a scenario he will have no alternative but to respond in nature.

The result would be expansion – and further US involvement – ​​in the Middle East conflict. And that is something that Americans generally consider I don’t need.

The majority of progressives, young voters AND Black Americans oppose the war. MAGA Republicans do too.

What’s more, it’s inevitable economic pain war would likely evaporate support at home and threaten America’s ability to devote resources and efforts elsewhere, especially in Asia and Europe.

None of that is inevitable; Presidencies don’t have to end in strategic regret. And like their predecessors, Biden and Trump would have a alternative. Presidents Johnson, Reagan, Clinton, and Obama selected the flawed options and regretted them. Their experiences and the specters of history now function a warning when it comes to American forces in Syria and Iraq. Perhaps this will result in fewer regrets.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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International

What Trump’s victory means for Ukraine, the Middle East, China and the rest of the world

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Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, combined with the presence of the Republican-led US Senate, was was widely feared amongst international allies and shall be cheered by some of America’s enemies. While the former placed on a brave face, the latter can barely hide their joy.

ON war in UkraineTrump will likely attempt to force Kiev and Moscow to at the least conform to a ceasefire on their current front lines. This could possibly include a everlasting agreement recognizing Russia’s territorial gains, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and occupied territories since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

It can also be likely that Trump will accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands stopping Ukraine’s future membership in NATO. Given Trump’s well-known distaste for NATO, it might also put significant pressure on Kiev’s European allies. Trump could once more threaten to desert the alliance to influence Europeans to sign an agreement with Putin on Ukraine.

When it involves Middle EastTrump has been a staunch supporter of Israel and Saudi Arabia in the past. He will likely double down on this, including taking an excellent tougher stance on Iran. This is in step with the current priorities of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu appears determined to destroy Iran’s proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen and seriously degrade Iran’s capabilities. By rejection his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, by criticizing his conduct of the offensive in Gaza, Netanyahu laid the foundations for the continuation of the conflict in that country.

It can also be preparing for an expanded offensive in Lebanon and a potentially devastating attack on Iran in response to further actions Iranian attack on Israel.

Trump’s election will embolden Netanyahu to act. And this, in turn, would also strengthen Trump’s position towards Putin, who relies on Iran’s support in his war in Ukraine. Trump could offer to limit Netanyahu in the future as a bargaining chip against Putin in his game to secure an agreement on Ukraine.

Move to China

Although Ukraine and the Middle East are two areas where changes are looming, relations with China will almost certainly be characterised by continuity relatively than change. With relations with China perhaps the key strategic challenge in U.S. foreign policy, the Biden administration has continued many of the policies adopted by Trump during his first term, and Trump will likely double down on them in his second term.

The Trump White House is more likely to raise import tariffs, and it has done so he talked loads about using them to attack China. But Trump is equally more likely to be open to pragmatic transaction deals with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Trump has said he’ll impose sanctions on China, but he may also likely prefer a realistic approach to relations with China.
Newscom/Alamy Live

As in relations with European allies in NATO, a serious query mark hangs over Trump’s involvement in the so-called defense of Taiwan and other treaty allies in Asia, including the Philippines, South Korea and potentially Japan. Trump is at best indifferent to American security guarantees.

But as his on-and-off relationship with North Korea during his first term showed, Trump is typically willing to accomplish that push the envelope dangerously near war. This happened in 2017 in response to North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile test.

The unpredictability of the Pyongyang regime makes one other such close encounter just as likely as Trump’s unpredictability makes it conceivable that he would accept a nuclear-armed North Korea as part of a broader agreement with Russia, which has forged increasingly closer relations with Kim Jong-un’s regime.

This would give Trump additional influence over China, which was the case anxious on account of growing relations between Russia and North Korea.

Preparations for the Trump White House

Friends and foes alike plan to make use of the remaining months before Trump returns to the White House to try to enhance their standing and tackle issues that will be harder once he takes office.

Anticipating Trump’s push to finish wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will likely result in intensified fighting there to create a establishment that various sides say shall be more acceptable to them. This doesn’t bode well for the humanitarian crises which are already mounting in each regions.

An increase in tension on and around the Korean Peninsula cannot even be ruled out. Pyongyang will likely want this increase its credibility with much more missile – and potentially nuclear – tests.

Donald Trump shakes hands with Kim Jong-un
Loose guns? Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un meet in the demilitarized zone between North Korea and South Korea, June 2019.
EPA-EFE/KCNA

Intensifying fighting in Europe and the Middle East and tensions in Asia are also more likely to strain relations between the United States and its allies in all three regions. There is fear in Europe that Trump may strike deals with Russia over the heads of its EU and NATO allies and threaten to desert them.

This would undermine the durability of any Ukrainian (or, more broadly, European) agreement with Moscow. Relative dismal condition European defense capabilities and the declining credibility of the US nuclear umbrella wouldn’t only help encourage Putin to further his imperial ambitions after securing an agreement with Trump.

In the Middle East, Netanyahu can be completely unrestrained. And yet, while some Arab regimes may cheer on Israel striking Iran and Iranian proxies, they’ll accomplish that worry about the response on the difficult situation of the Palestinians. Without solving this age-old problem, stability in the region, let alone peace, shall be almost unimaginable.

In Asia, the challenges are different. In this case, the problem is less about US withdrawal and more about unpredictable and potentially unmanageable escalation. Under Trump’s rule, it’s rather more likely that the US and China will find it difficult to flee the so-called Thucydides trap – the inevitability of war between a dominant but declining power and its emerging rival.

This raises the query of whether U.S. alliances in the region are secure in the long run, or whether some of its partners, reminiscent of Indonesia and India, will consider realigning with China.

All of this means, at best, more uncertainty and instability – not only after Trump’s inauguration, but additionally in the months leading as much as that date.

At worst, this may prove to be the undoing of Trump’s self-proclaimed infallibility. But before he and his team realized that geopolitics was more complicated than real estate, they might have began the same chaos they accused Biden and Harris of.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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International

Why did ancient Mesopotamians use sheep liver to predict Donald Trump’s electoral probabilities?

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I stand within the basement kitchen and poke on the sheep’s liver, in search of marks on its smooth surface. People are flocking to film the proceedings because I’m here to ask the query everyone wants answered: Will Donald Trump win the US election?

I follow instructions that were first written down by the ancient Babylonians 4,000 years ago and which have survived to this present day. Every wrinkle within the liver has a meaning, and cuneiform tablets discovered in modern-day Iraq explain how to interpret them.

Armed with this information, it is feasible to calculate the reply to any query, provided it’s yes or no, by adding up the variety of positive or negative signs and seeing which one comes out on top.

Since this liver contained an amazing variety of bad omens, I he stated that this time she said “no” to Trump. Although in 2016 this method he predicted victory long before he won the Republican nomination, and in 2020 he predicted that he wouldn’t be re-elected this yr.

Will Trump win the US elections?

What began as a fun conversation at a university open day has since turn out to be a serious part my research – not because I sincerely imagine in it, but since it gives us a few of the earliest evidence in history of how humans reason and think.

Looking at livers also allows us to draw serious conclusions about how people have handled uncertainty throughout history and proceed to struggle with it today. People have developed techniques as diverse as astrology, tarot cards, and even gut-searching in response to the agony of not knowing or the strain of creating a difficult decision.

Given the extent of feeling invested on this election, this can be a unique moment by which perhaps we are able to appreciate that on this respect we aren’t that different from those that lived 1000’s of years ago, even when our methods of looking into the long run are different .

I’m asking in regards to the insides

Developed in its classical form in Babylon, visceral divination was practiced throughout ancient Mesopotamia, with recorded history dating from the third millennium BC to the first century AD

This had enormous significance across all levels of society – it was a typical a part of the political decision-making process on the royal court, but was open to all. Budget options were even available for many who couldn’t afford a sheep.

People addressed their questions directly to the gods and believed that the moment they asked the reply could be written on their insides. This can then be “read” by a diviner trained on this esoteric language.

Map of Mesopotamia, a historical region of recent Iraq.
aipsidtr / Shutterstock

The British Museum has an archive of real questions asked by the king of Assyria (a kingdom in northern Mesopotamia) within the seventh century BC. All sorts of matters of state were placed before the gods. Will the Egyptians attack? Has the enemy taken over the besieged city? Will the governors return home safely?

Reading the archive, one gets the sensation that one’s nerves are on a knife’s edge because the king waits for news from afar, wanting to know what has happened to his soldiers and trying to resolve what to do next.

He not only asked them about what would occur in the long run, but in addition consulted with them about possible courses of motion. Should the Assyrian army enter the war? Should the king send a messenger to make peace? Asking the gods for his or her opinion would help him feel more confident in his next steps.

The Babylonians had no selections. However, this did not mean that the king could do whatever he wanted. It was vital to his public image that the gods were on his side, in addition to to his own self-confidence.

Each time a robust official was appointed, the entrails were read to make sure the gods’ acceptance. The army commander, high priests, and other vital positions were subject to this requirement. On one occasion, even the selection of the crown prince – and subsequently the long run king of Assyria – was put to the test.

The interpretation of the viscera was done with almost scientific standards of accuracy. Diviners worked in pairs or groups of up to 11 people, checking one another’s work to ensure they did it right. This was not a vague or murky process, but an actual attempt to ensure “accuracy” that might not be manipulated to get the reply the king wanted to hear.

Modern forecasting

We all want to know what the long run holds, and we have provide you with ingenious ways to discover, from opinion polls and data modeling to Paul the octopuswho became famous for selecting the winners of soccer matches throughout the 2010 World Cup. But are our methods really higher than looking contained in the sheep?

As all investors caution, past performance isn’t any guarantee of future performance. However, the one data we have now for our predictions is from the past, and most of our models don’t account for “unknown unknowns.”

As many experts have learned, predicting the long run is a difficult business: Polls can lie and other people can change their minds, while economists were often blindsided by sudden crashes.



Clay liver used for divination in ancient Mesopotamia.
Babylonian clay liver used for divination in Mesopotamia between 2050 and 1750 BC.
Collection of the Science Museum group, CC BY-NC-ND

Since liver reading only answers “yes” or “no”, it would be correct 50% of the time, according to the law of averages. Despite its randomness, the success rate can have seemed convincing on the time.

And once we trust the authority of the source, it is simple to discover a way to explain a mistaken result – the prediction got to the halfway point, answered a unique query, or would have been right if x hadn’t happened.

We shouldn’t be blind to the weaknesses of our own methods. We are sometimes mistaken, and the Babylonians may sometimes be right.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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Israel’s ban on UNRWA continues the politicization of aid for Palestinian refugees and puts the lives of millions of people at risk

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The vote of the Israeli Parliament on October 28, 2024 on the ban on the operation of the UN agency providing assistance to Palestinian refugees is prone to they affect millions of people – this also matches the pattern.

Aid for refugees, particularly Palestinian refugees, has long been politicized, and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) has been a goal throughout its 75-year history.

This was seen earlier in the current conflict in Gaza, when at least a dozen countries, including the US, suspended funding for UNRWAciting Israel’s allegations that 12 UNRWA employees participated in the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. In August, the UN dismissed nine UNRWA employees for his alleged involvement in the attack. Independent UN panel established a set of 50 recommendations ensuring that UNRWA staff respect the principle of neutrality.

The vote in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, to ban UNRWA goes a step further. When it enters into force, it can prevent UNRWA from operating in Israel and will seriously impact its ability to serve refugees in any of the occupied territories controlled by Israel, including Gaza. It could have devastating consequences for livelihoods, health, distribution of food aid and education for Palestinians. It would also derail the polio vaccination campaign conducted by UNRWA and its partner organizations carrying out in Gaza from September. Finally, the bill prohibits communications between Israeli officials and UNRWA, which is able to end the agency’s efforts to coordinate the movement of aid employees to stop inadvertent targeting by the Israel Defense Forces.

Help for refugees, and more broadly, humanitarian aid, is theoretically alleged to be neutral and impartial. But as experts in emigration AND international relationswe all know that financing is commonly used as a foreign policy tool through which allies are rewarded and enemies are punished. In this context, we imagine that Israel’s ban on UNRWA is an element of a broader pattern of politicization of aid for refugees, especially Palestinian refugees.

What is UNRWA?

UNRWA, short for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, was created two years after roughly 750,000 Palestinians were expelled or fled from their homes in the months leading as much as the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 and the subsequent Arab–Arab War. Israeli.

Palestinians flee their homes during the Arab-Israeli war in 1948.
Photos from the History/Universal Images group via Getty Images

Before the creation of UNRWA, international and local organizations, many of them religious, provided services to displaced Palestinians. But then extreme poverty research and the dire situation prevailing in the refugee camps, the UN General Assembly, including all Arab states and Israel, voted to create UNRWA in 1949.

Since then UNRWA is the predominant aid organization providing food, medical care, education and, in some cases, housing for the 6 million Palestinians living in five areas: Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, in addition to the areas that make up the occupied Palestinian territories: the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The mass displacement of Palestinians – often called the Nakba, or “catastrophe” – had occurred before 1951 Refugee Conventionwhich defined refugees as any person having a well-founded fear of persecution in reference to “events which took place in Europe before 1 January 1951”. Despite 1967 Protocol extending the definition around the world, Palestinians proceed to be excluded from the predominant international refugee protection system.

Although UNRWA is responsible for providing services to Palestine refugees, the United Nations also established the UN Conciliation Commission on Palestine in 1948 to hunt long-term political solution and “facilitating the repatriation, resettlement and economic and social rehabilitation of refugees and the payment of compensation.”

As a result, UNRWA doesn’t have a mandate to push for traditional durable solutions available in other refugee situations. As it happens, the reconciliation commission lasted only a couple of years and has since been sidelined in favor of US-brokered peace processes.

Is UNRWA political?

UNRWA was topic since its inception, and especially during times of heightened tensions between Palestinians and Israelis, to opposing political winds.

Although it’s a UN organization and due to this fact seemingly apolitical, it is definitely so often criticized by Palestinians, Israelis, and donor countries, including the United States, for political activities.

UNRWA has government functions in its five domains, including education, health and infrastructure, but its mandate is proscribed to political or security-related activities.

Palestine’s initial objections to UNRWA stemmed from the organization’s early focus on the economic integration of refugees in host countries.

Although UNRWA officially joined the UN General Assembly Resolution 194 which called for the return of Palestinian refugees to their homes, the UN, the UK and the US officials searched measures to enable the resettlement and integration of Palestinians into host countries, seeing this as a helpful political solution to the situation of Palestinian refugees and the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In this sense, Palestinians perceived UNRWA as highly political and actively working against their interests.

In later a long time UNRWA modified the predominant focus from work to education under pressure from Palestinian refugees. But there have been UNRWA educational materials watched by Israel as an additional boost to the Palestinian militia, and the Israeli government insisted on checking and approving all material in Gaza and the West Bank, which it has occupied since 1967.

A woman holds a poster saying
A protester is removed by Capitol Police officers during a House hearing on January 30, 2024.
Alex Wong/Getty Images

While Israel does long suspected UNRWA’s role in refugee camps and providing education, the operation of an internationally funded organization, also saves Israel has millions of dollars annually in services it might be required to supply as an occupying power.

Since the Nineteen Sixties, this has been done by the United States – UNRWA’s predominant donor – and other Western countries they’ve repeatedly expressed their desire using aid to stop radicalization amongst refugees.

In response to the increased presence of armed opposition groups, The United States added a provision to UNRWA aid in 1970, requiring that “UNRWA take all possible measures to be certain that no part of the United States contribution is used to supply assistance to any refugee who’s undergoing military training as a member of the so-called Palestine Liberation Movement Army (PLA) or every other guerrilla-type organization.”

UNRWA complies with this requirement, even publishing an annual list of its staff in order that host governments can confirm them, but in addition employs 30,000 peoplethe overwhelming majority of whom are Palestinians.

Questions about UNRWA’s links with any militia led to the formation of Israeli and international militias viewing groups that document the social media activity of the organization’s large Palestinian staff.

In 2018, the Trump administration suspended its implementation $60 million payment to UNRWA. Trump claimed the pause would put political pressure on the Palestinians to barter. President Joe Biden resumed US contributions to UNRWA in 2021.

While other major donors restored UNRWA funding following the conclusion of an investigation in April, the United States still to do that.

“Immediate Disaster”

Israel’s ban on UNRWA will leave already ravenous Palestinians without relief. UN Secretary General António Guterres he said, banning UNRWA “It would be a disaster in the face of an already incomparable disaster.” The foreign ministers of Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom issued the regulation joint statement arguing that a ban would have “devastating consequences for the already critical and rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation, especially in the northern Gaza Strip.”

There have been reports Israeli plans for private security firms to take over the distribution of aid in Gaza through dystopian “gated communities” that may effectively be internment camps. This can be a disturbing move. Unlike UNRWA, private contractors have little experience delivering aid and are usually not committed to humanitarian principles neutrality, impartiality or independence.

However, an explicit ban issued by the Knesset may unintentionally force the United States to suspend arms transfers to Israel. American law requires it to stop arms transfers to any country that obstructs the delivery of U.S. humanitarian aid. And the US interruption in UNRWA funding was alleged to be only temporary.

UNRWA is the predominant conduit for aid to Gaza, and the Knesset’s ban clearly shows that the Israeli government is stopping aid from being delivered, making it harder for Washington to disregard it. Before the bill was passed, US Department of State spokesman Matt Miller he warned it “Adoption of the legislation could have implications for U.S. law and policy.”

Two U.S. government agencies at the same time previously alerted Biden administration that Israel obstructed aid to Gaza, yet arms transfers proceed.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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