The second week in a row, senior officials from the United States and Iran will meet to participate in talks about the Iranian nuclear program. This is the second round in the latest negotiations – the first took place in Oman on April 12.

But the last statements of each the White House and older Iranian officials, including Opinion difference Where talks should happen, they suggest that quick diplomatic successes may not be available.

The position of Donald Trump in the Iran case was surprisingly belligerent. It was the first Trump administration to withdraw from the nuclear agreement in 2015 and imposed on Iran the policy of “maximum pressure”. Since his return to the oval office, Trump has again imposed this policy of maximum pressure.

Publishing on xThe American Special Eastern envoy in the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said that “Iran must stop and eliminate the nuclear enrichment program and weapons.” He also called for verification of all spare missiles in the Islamic Republic.

Iranian officials rejected these demands of the US loudly, along with the Minister of Foreign Affairs ABBAS ARAGHCHCH, claiming that the rocket program is not for discussion.

Tehran needs a contract

There is little doubt that Iran wants a contract, perhaps he even needs a contract. It was like that Strinking hard by sanctions Over the past decade, which have hollowed out, the country’s middle class.

Israel’s military strikes towards Iran and his allies over the past yr have been eroded the ideological and military strength of the Islamic Republic and a wider “axis of resistance”. With the weakening of many allies, Iran missiles are much more vital as deterrent.

The strong line adopted by the Trump administration leaves little space for the maneuver. He risks much more that in Iran, which are less likely to have interaction diplomatically. But every militant rhetoric from votes in Iran risk pouring fuel in an incendent situation.

At the same time, the Islamic Republic is in the face of a number of serious pressure in the country, equivalent to this woman, life, libertarian movement, and increasingly more loud opposition abroad-especially from self-proclaimed Prince Reza PahlaviSon of Shah, who was removed in 1979.

Although Iran may desire a contract, he may not give up – especially after the events of last yr. And it shouldn’t.

We weigh her strategy

Jastrzębie in the USA, Israel and other countries, of course, heralded the position of Trump’s administration. The fears of the Iranian nuclear program are still guided by the actions of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and others – although there have been reports that Israeli strikes for the purposes of Iran were proposed Methed by Trump in favor of greater negotiations.

While the Persian Gulf countries would someday have a good time a difficult position towards Iran, the situation is now different. Iran’s long -time rival, Saudi Arabia, put away his many years in the hope of a more prosperous future.

In agreement in 2023, through China, Saudi Arabia and Iran He agreed to normalize relationsOpening the embassies and starting a series of coordinated military exercises. For Saudi Arabia, especially his crown prince and de facto ruler of Mohammed Bin Salman, regional stability is obligatory in the implementation of the ambitious VISION2030 – who bends strongly in the global trust of investors.

As a result, the kingdom has taken a practical change in regional matters, setting out The process of diplomatic rapprochement This surprised many observers. Riyad also took steps towards normalization with Israel, although the ongoing destruction of the gauze Such movements stoppedAt least for now.

At the same time wherein nuclear negotiations happen, Israeli attacks goals in Syria To proceed. The fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024-and the rear place took her a few years of supporter, Russia-Russia modified the political landscape of Syria.

Although his former president, Bashar al-Assad, has A shelter was present in RussiaMoscow undertook a temporary observer, willingly not antagonize the latest Syria regime and threatens her strategically vital military bases on the Mediterranean coast. Members of groups previously favored by the Assad regime, especially the Alawi community, They escaped to the Russian Navy base in Latakia in search of protection.

But 1000’s of others were killed amongst the growing violence as the strength of the latest regime, led by Ahmad Al-Shary, attempt to extinguish all the stays of the Assad’s regime-series of events that look incredibly much like what happened in Iraq 20 years ago, when the trial “Reference of this”. He tried to remove all traces of the Saddam Hussein regime from public life.

Fragile regional order

The situation in the entire region is uncertain, and the actions of global powers are still resounding. While Washington is pressure on Tehran and Moscow, in addition to the scope of Chinese influence in the region increases.

Ironically, Trump’s tariffs on China can push Beijing further to the Middle East, attempting to use the available possibilities. His lane and road initiative is positioned by the Middle East strongly in the strategic interests of China. It will probably open a brand new front in the competition between Washington and Beijing.

All the time people from the Middle East still pay the hardest price. Ongoing wars and uncertainty, fears of regional conflict and unsure political conditions – in addition to rising food prices and pressure on health care – they create a perfect storm that increases pressure and challenges related to on a regular basis life.

Negotiators from Iran and the United States are set Meet again in Oman on April 262025 New nuclear agreement.

The planned talks follow Two previous rounds of indirect negotiations which took place under the new administration of Trump. It was considered that these discussions gave sufficient progress to deserve Sending nuclear experts on each side to start out of the details of the potential framework of the contract.

Development is particularly noteworthy, considering that Trump in 2018 unilaterally The USA has passed away From a multilateral agreement with Iran. This agreement, negotiated during the presidency of Obama, imposes restrictions in Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for relief in sanctions. Instead, Trump turned to the policy that Tightening financial screws About Iran through improved sanctions Issuing hidden military threats.

But this approach didn’t disrupt the Iran nuclear program.

Now, as a substitute of reviving Policy of maximum pressure From his first term Trump – at all times being perceived as a trader – he gave his team green light for the renovated diplomacy, and even Apparently he rejectedFor now, Israel’s desire to introduce military strikes against Tehran.

Jaw-sparkles over the war

Turn to diplomacy, Iran’s relations return to the place where Obama began during the Obama administration, with attempts to encourage Iran to limit or eliminate his ability to enrich uranium.

Only this time the US left the previous contract in 2018, Iran was seven years old Improve the enrichment and spare capability rather more uranium than allowed by an abandoned agreement.

As long -term Expert in the field of US foreign policy and nuclear real estateI imagine that Trump has a novel opportunity not only to restore an identical nuclear agreement with the one he rejected, but in addition to conclude a more covering contract – and support higher relations with the Islamic Republic.

There are real signs that potential The transaction can be able toIt is actually true that Trump likes the optics of making transactions.

But the agreement is in no way certain. All progress towards the contract will be questioned by quite a lot of aspects Internal divisions and opposition As a part of the Trump administration and skepticism amongst some in the Islamic Republic, together with Uncertainty about the plan of succession for the aging Ayatollah Chhamenei.

Conservative hawks are still abundant in each countries and can still deraise any softening of diplomatic tensions.

Checkered diplomatic past

There are also many years of distrust to overcome.

It is not enough to say that the United States and Iran had a decent relationship because it has been from time Iranian Revolution from 1979 AND takeover of the US embassy in Tehran In the same 12 months.

Many Iranians would say that relations have been tense since 1953, when the US and Great Britain organized overthrow Mohammad MossadeghDemocratically elected Prime Minister Iran.

Washington and Tehran haven’t had formal diplomatic relations since 1979, and each countries were closed in many years for influence in the Middle East. Today, tensions remain high over the Iranian support for the so -called resistance axis towards the West, and particularly the US interests in the Middle East. This axis includes Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi in Yemen.

For his part, Tehran has long been invading American hegemony in the region, including his strong support for Israel and his history of military activities. In recent years, that motion in the US has covered direct assaults on Iranian assets and staff. In particular, Tehran is still bad at 2020 The murder of Qass SoleimaniHead of the strength of QDS Islamic Corps of the Revolutionary Guard.

Standing at the top of those various disputes, Iran’s nuclear ambitions turned out to be a everlasting source of competition for the United States and Israel, with the latter the only nuclear energy in the region.

The perspective of warmer relations between two sides appeared for the first time during the Obama administration – though Iran sounded Bush administration in 2003 only to be rejected.

American diplomats began to make contact with Iranian counterparts in 2009 met with the Iranian negotiator in Geneva. The so -called P5+1 began direct negotiations with Iran in 2013. This paved the way to the final iran nuclear agreement, or Common comprehensive motion plan (JCPOA), in 2015. In this agreement – ended by the USA, Iran, China, Russia and lots of European nations – Iran He agreed to restrictions on his nuclear programIn this level limit, which could be enriched with uranium, which was limited to what’s going to be obligatory for nuclear weapons. In return, the US multilateral and bilateral sanctions were removed.

Many observers perceived this as a win, with restrictions in developing nuclear energy together with the hope that greater economic involvement with the international community, which can alleviate a few of the more provocative behaviors in foreign policy in Iran.

However, Israel and Saudi Arabia were frightened that the contract didn’t completely eliminate Iran’s ability to enrich uranium and right -wing critics In the United States, it complained that this didn’t apply to ballistic missiles in Iran or support for groups of fighters in the region.

When Trump took office for the first time in 2016, he and his foreign policy team committed himself Reverse Obama’s course and shut the door on each diplomatic hole. Extraction of your promise, Trump He withdrew unilaterally US support for JCPOA despite Iran’s constant compliance with the terms of the contract and restored sanctions.

Donald, a trader?

So what has modified? Well, just a few things.

While Trump’s withdrawal from JCPOA was welcomed by Republicans, it did nothing to stop Iran from increasing his ability to enrich uranium.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, willing to transform the image and economic diversification, Now it supports the contract This was objected to Obama’s administration.

In this second term of Trump Antiranous pulses They are still there. But despite his military option rhetoric, if the contract was not concluded, Trump repeatedly stated his opposition to the US involvement in one other war in the Middle East.

In addition, Iran has suffered many blows in recent times, which made him more isolated in the region. Iranians are Hamas and Hezbollah seriously weakened consequently of Israel’s military actions. Meanwhile, Strikes in Iran by Israel They showed the potential range of Israeli missiles – and the apparent readiness of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to use them. In addition Removal of President Bashar Al-Assad in Syria He deprived Iran with one other regional ally.

Tehran is also fighting more fragile domestic economy than during negotiations for JCPOA.

Because Iran weakened regionally, and Trump’s major goal is China, diplomatic avenue with Iran seems completely in step with Trump’s view as a trader.

The contract is not given

With two rounds of meetings and transition to more technical facets It seems that a possible agreement negotiated by experts has a reliable window of diplomacy.

This may mean a new contract that retains the basic facets of the previously abandoned contract. I’m not convinced that the new contract will look different than the previous aspect of enrichment.

However, there are still many potential blockades of roads standing on the road to every potential contract.

As in the case of Trump’s meeting with North Korea leader Kim Jong-Un during his first term, the president seems to be less fascinated with details than the spectacle. Although the American leader was amazing to meet his Korean counterpart, no politics modified for this reason.

As for Iran and other problems, the president shows Little patience for sophisticated Politics details. Complication of matters is that the US administration is expressed in intensive factionismWith many Iran Hawks, who would apparently be contrary to the contract – including the Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security advisor Mike Waltz. They could rub The newly confirmed Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby AND JD Vance Vice PresidentThey each in the past were in favor of a more pro-diagram line on Iran.

How it became a typical topic in the foreign policy of Trump’s administration – even with its own allies in matters reminiscent of trade – it is not clear what Trump’s administrative policy is and whether there is a political commitment to conduct any final contract.

TOP Trump’s foreign negotiator Steve Witkoff, who has No national security experienceHe illustrated this tension. The task to negotiate with Iran, Witkoff has already been forced to accomplish that Come back His claim that the US was only trying to limit the level of enriching uranium and never eliminate the entire program.

For his part, Iran proved that he was seriously approaching diplomacy, he had previously accepted Barack Obama “Elongated hand. “

But Tehran is unlikely to capitulate basic interests or allow yourself to humiliate by the terms of any contract.

Ultimately, the major query to watch is whether the contract with Iran is to be concluded by pragmatics – after which to what extent narrow or expansive – or derailed by Hawks in administration.

The Jordanian authorities banned the Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest opposition movement in the Kingdom, in recent repression. On Wednesday, April 23, security forces Invaded offices of the Brotherhoodconfiscal assets and real estate and forbade all the group’s activities.

Per week earlier, 16 members of the Brotherhood They were arrested for alleged planning attacks for goals in Jordan with rockets and drones. The brotherhood, whose members of the Jordanian Minister of the Interior Mazen Al-Faraya claims that “he works in the shade and is involved in activities that could undermine stability and security,” has Any links were refused to attack plots.

The ban on brotherhood, the Islamist movement, which wants a greater role of faith in public life, appears at a time when the Jordanian government is in the face of intensive pressure on the war in Gaza.

The brotherhood organized months demonstrations IN solidarity with Palestinians. He was also loud in his own support for the Palestinian armed group Hamas I demanded the dismissal of the Jordan Peace Treaty with Israel.

At the same time, King of Jordan got here Abdullah II under great pressure From the administration of Donald Trump in the USA to the reset of Palestinians from the occupied Strip Gaza and West Brzeg. If he agreed, this movement would risk perception as a betrayal of the Palestinian case.

The Jordanian authorities had a restless relationship with the brotherhood since the late Eighties, when the political system of the kingdom opened. They desired to limit its influence.

In 2016, the headquarters of the Brotherhood in the capital, Amman, He was closed And his assets were transferred to a brand new organization called the Association of the Muslim Brotherhood Society, referred to as “allowed” Muslim Brotherhood. When ideological divisions appeared in the movement, the authorities tried to make use of internal divisions.

Recent repression is a striking repressive phrase. It means a departure from the conclusion of movement to exclude it from public life.

However, the brotherhood stays popular. In September 2024 Winning parliamentary elections. It took 31 places in the 138-member parliament, ensuring victory in constituencies throughout the country at the best results of the elections for over three a long time.

His success was largely reduced to the demonstration of the Brotherhood in support of the Palestinians. These demonstrations resonated in Jordan, where nearby Half of the population It is of Palestinian origin. The party also benefited from changes to the election regulations before the election, which He gave more importance to political parties, and fewer independent candidates.

But under the creator of Jordan’s creator’s system, the king maintains most of the authorities, especially in the field of internal security and foreign affairs. The palace strictly controls political life. So the Islamic front of the motion was not invited to hitch the recent government, which consists of the Pro-Monarchy party.

The key query now is whether or not the authorities also prohibit the front of Islamic shares, despite electoral profits.

Conflict with the Crown

Even before the last repression, Islamists in Jordan were afraid of confrontation with the authorities. Many suspected that the palace desired to close the brotherhood movement and leave the weakened party, which may very well be easier.

During a visit to Jordan, shortly after the election in September, one older front of the Islamic motion told me: “They (monarchy) simply want a party in a superficial form. The party without any presence.”

Although the brotherhood was under pressure, he was still in a position to handle most of its activities. Older party members even took part in the Royal Committee of “Political Modernization” in 2021, which developed reforms to vary the election regulations to strengthen political parties.

However, many in the brotherhood were afraid that there was a confrontation with the palace. One figure of the older brotherhood told me in October 2024: “The Brotherhood is a huge, universal organization with social and political presence. The clash between the state and brotherhood would have a negative impact on the society and the legitimacy of the political system.”

Jordan’s Brotherhood is just not alone in the face of the crisis. Other Islamist organizations in the whole region experience political failures, over a decade after the Arab spring is established in 2011. It seems to supply recent opportunities.

In Tunisia, where a democratic passage was completely reversed from 2021 were trapped.

The arrests were a part of a large wave of repression against critics of regimes, including politicians, judges, lawyers and human rights activists. Ennahda, who spent a decade in the government in 2011–2021, has He suffered internal divisions.

In Morocco, the party of justice and development, an Islamist party, which also spent a decade in the government since 2011, he suffered a serious defeat In the last election in 2021

The party’s losses were partly the results of restrictions at the time of voting. They included recent rules regarding the division of places and the proven fact that some party candidates were disqualified from running.

But the losses were also attributable to internal disputes after Prime Minister Saaadeddine Othmani signed normalization Agreement with Israel in 2020 with a view to avoid confrontation with the monarchy that controls foreign affairs.

In Kuwait, The parliament has been suspended In 2024, because the ruling Emir, Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, complained about the political net. This maintained all opposition parties, including Islamists, aside from the political process. And in Algeria, Islamist parties were Cooperated or marginalized From the bitter civil war in the Nineties.

Opinion The surveys show it Many people in the Middle East wish to see a major role of faith in public life. But the rulers throughout the region are increasingly cautious towards Islamist parties, which want not only to introduce a more conservative social program, but in addition to query undemocratic regimes.