Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said on May 5 that his government intends to worsen Military operations and infinity re -car gauze. The announcement gave hopes for a everlasting suspension of weapons and the discharge of other hostages owned by Hamas.

The plan, which has been unanimously approved by the Israeli security office, includes the displacement of two.1 million Gaza inhabitants to at least one “humanitarian area” in less than 1 / 4 of Gaza territory. It might be cause Palestinians Leaving “in large numbers of third countries,” said the far -right Minister of Finance Israel, Niealel Smotry.

It is tempting to perceive the plan as one other move of Netanyahu to calm the fitting -wing members of its coalition. It can be seen as a pressure tactics for Hamas – a threat to forcing a bunch of fighters to consent Short -term weapon suspension Before the visit of the US President, Donald Trump, to the Middle East from May 13.

However, the announcement of Netanyahu is more than a rhetorical saber. Israel’s recent operations in Gaza indicate that the plan must be treated literally and seriously. From March, when the war in Gaza resumed after the temporary suspension of weapons, Israel has declared about 70% enclaves or a military “red zone” or evacuation.

The recent plan confirms what many have been afraid of for an extended time: that expanding territorial control is just not only a brief -term military tactics, but an extended -term occupation. In my opinion, this can only bring more suffering for Palestinians, less Israel’s security and greater instability of the region.

Humanitarian crisis in gas can’t be overstated. Many Observers described The current situation because the worst at any time within the last 18 months.

The flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza was politicized and widely criticized throughout the war, often releasing to the stream. However, no less than a few of the help trucks could go to the belt for the reason that end of October 2023, shortly after the war began. Then there was a rise in help in the course of the suspension of weapons in January and February 2025.

But from the start of March he is not going to participate in food, fuel or medicine. It led The conditions of just about Famina and the division of several other healthcare services.

The proposed plan of Israel would force Gazanans, of which nearly everyone was already displaced again and again, in militarized “Sterile zones” within the south. Humanitarian aid could be managed by Israeli defense forces (IDF) and private American corporations.

UN agencies and international non -governmental organizations operating in Gaza He rejected this plan as contradictory humanitarian principles. They compared it “Terms of internment de facto”.

Complication of Israeli security

Deteriorating humanitarian conditions, combined with further displacement, will only create More security challenges For Israel. Occrated occupation drives armed resistance and further mobilizes the riot.

The United States saw this after the invasion of Iraq from 2003 killing. Israel has repeatedly faced armed warrior groups in response to long -term military occupations in Lebanon, Gaza and West Brzeg.

Hamas He has already rejected Further talks concerning the suspension of weapons following a brand new plan, and the group apparently has no problem Recruitment of latest members to his military wing. This ensured the costly distribution of IDF ground soldiers.

It is clear that Hamas should free all other hostages – and it must have done it so way back. But Hamas now sees a slight motivation when Israeli ministers call for what appears to be Total destruction Gases, with or without hostages.

Re -occupation of Gaza may also complicate regional dynamics. Arab countries, which promised billions of dollars for the reconstruction of gauze, together with a reliable plan of a two -state solution, might be investigated when subsidizing Israeli military control.

Arrested Normalization agreement supported by the USA Between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which has long been searched for each the Trump administration and Biden, will probably be pushed even further. You may even hand over completely if Israel is restricted in gas.

And any US involvement in the brand new Gaza Plan in Israel can complicate negotiations between the USA and Iran Tehran nuclear program. The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, has already accused Netanyah of pulling the US right into a “disaster” within the Middle East, “trying to vaguely dictate”, what Trump can and what he cannot do in his diplomacy with Iran.

But possibly, most significantly, re -preparation of gauze – together with WetAnnexies and Settlement extension In West Brzeg-in no way, it communicates that the Israeli government is torpedoed by any path to a two-state solution.

It has long been clear for Palestinians and many observers. Most of the realists accepted that each one moving towards Palestinian self -determination could be unlimited after the attacks of October 7 to southern Israel.

However, Israel’s friends within the international community, especially in Europe, keep on with the hope that Israel would finally return to the 2 -state frames. This latest plan calls them a bluff.

France and Great Britain are Already within the discussion On the probably recognition of Palestine as a state at a conference in June. The United Kingdom has long preferred recognition throughout the peace process towards two countries, not a symbolic gesture.

But the limited “capture” of gauze, together with one other huge civil displacement, can speed up the intense consideration of this discretion – while it remained on Palestinian territory for recognition.

President Donald Trump will sit down Saudi leaders Prince and Emirati and Katari May 14, 2025 in what’s strongly advertised as high rate peak. Not invited and fastidiously observing, will probably be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Like many other members of his right -wing coalition, Netanyahu He looked delighted with the election Trump as the US president in November, believing that a republican policy in the Middle East would undoubtedly be conducive to Israeli interests and could be strictly coordinated with Netanyahu himself.

But it didn’t play that way. Of course, Washington stays – definitely in official communication – Israel’s strongest global ally AND Main weapon supplier. But Trump promotes the Middle East policy, which sometimes clearly contrary to the interests of Netanyahu and his government.

In fact in by pressing the Iranian nuclear agreement “Trump’s first reversal reversal,” Trump undermines Netanyahu’s long positions. This is the level of alarm in Israeli right -wing circles There were rumors Trump proclaiming unilateral US support for the Palestinian state before visiting Riyadh – something that might be a clear departure for Washington.

As Historian of Israel and a wider Middle EastI understand that in key ways of the Trump program in Riyadh it’s a continuation of the US policy, especially in the security relationship with the monarchs of the Arab Bay – something that Israel has long been accepted if it just isn’t openly supported. But during the journey it can also place a significant daylight between Trump and Netanyahu.

Trump’s official program

Four -day trip to the bay A foreign visit based on politics Since the election of the president, the development of economic ties and security between the US and traditional allies in the Persian Gulf has been more on the surface.

Trump is anticipated to strengthen commercial agreements with a value of tens of billions of dollars between the states of the Arab Bay, including unprecedented Shopping of weaponsIN Investments in the Persian Gulf in the USA and Even a floating gift katari Pałacowa 747 intended to be used as an air force.

There can be a possibility Safety alliance between the USA and Saudi Arabia.

So far, so good for the Israeli government. Before the attacks on October 7, Israel was already in the technique of forging Closer to connections with the Persian Gulf countrieswith contracts and diplomatic relations established with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain by Abraham Accords that the Trump administration itself facilitated in September 2020. In the race there was also potential normalization of the bond with Saudi Arabia.

Coping with Tehran

But the central program this week in Riyadh will probably be issues by which Trump and Netanyahu are increasingly not on the same page. And it starts with Iran.

Although the country won’t be represented, Iran could have a large participation at the Trump summit, since it coincides with the ongoing diplomatic conversations of the US administration with Tehran on the nuclear program. These negotiations have ended now Four rounds. And despite the clear challenges, American and Iranian delegations still provide optimism about the possibility of achieving the contract.

The approach is after all a change for Trump, which in 2018 He abandoned a similar contract To the one that he’s in search of now. He also suggests that the USA is currently against the ideas of direct armed confrontation with Iran, against Netanayhu’s clear preferences.

Diplomacy with Tehran can be favored by the Persian Gulf states as a way to conclude Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Even Saudi Arabia-Długotymin regional rival in Tehran, which, like Israel, opposed Iran’s nuclear diplomacy from Obama-Caus and more often is in search of more cautious commitment to Iran. In April Was visited by the Minister of Saudi Defense Tehran before the last US-Iranian negotiations.

Netanyahu has He built his political profession with an upcoming threat from nuclearized Iran and the need to jump this threat in the embryo. He unsuccessfully tried to undermine the initial efforts of President Barack Obama so as to reach an agreement with Iran – as a results of which the Iran nuclear agreement from 2015. But Netanyahu was more lucky with Obama’s successor, helping to persuade Trump to withdraw from the agreement in 2018.

So Trump turned to Iran’s conversations, annoyed Netanyahu-not only since it happened, but also since it happened so publicly. In April, the US president called Netanyahu to the White House and openly embarrassed him Washington conducts diplomatic negotiations with Tehran.

Divide into Yemen

A transparent indication of the potential tension between the Trump administration and the Israeli government can be observed in ongoing skirmishes regarding USA, Israel and Houthi in Yemen.

After Houthis fired a missile At the airport in Tel Aviv on May 4 – which led to the closure and cancellation of many international flights – Israel hit the airport and other objects in the capital of Yemenu.

But just a few hours after the Israeli attack, Trump announced that the USA Houthis would not hit Already, because they “gave up” his demands and agreed not to block the transition of American ships in the Red Sea.

It became clear that Israel was not involved on this latest understanding between the USA and Houthi. Trump’s statement was also noteworthy in his time and can be considered an attempt to calm the region as a part of his trip to Saudi Arabia. The proven fact that this can also help smooth out conversations with Iran – Tehran is Houthis’s foremost sponsor – He was probably also a factor.

Time can be necessary in Israel Last attack on the Yemeni ports. They took place on May 11 – on the eve of Trump she set out to visit Saudi Arabia. In this fashion, Netanyahu can send a signal not only to Houthi, but also to the USA and Iran. The continuation of the Houthis attack can make nuclear conversations difficult.

Bibi political approach political approach

Critical observers of Netanyahu I even have been arguing for a very long time that he Priorities are ongoing continuation of the war in Gaza over regional calmness due to sticking to its far -right coalition, whose members Full control of the Gaza Belt and de-facto annexation of the West Bank.

This, argued many political commentators, is the foremost reason why Netanyahu He withdrew from the last stage Suspension agreements with Hamas in March – something that might require the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza State.

From the fall of the weapon suspension, Israel’s army mobilized As a part of the preparation for the renovated gauze robber, scheduled after the end of Trump’s trip to the Persian Bay.

With members of the Netanayh government Opening support A everlasting seizure of the belt and declaration The proven fact that restoring the other Israeli hostages is not any longer the highest priority, it seems to me that deescation just isn’t in the order of Netanyahu.

Trump himself recently noticed each the alarming state of hostages and serious humanitarian crisis In gas. Now, as well as to the release of the Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, the USA can be involved in negotiations With Hamas due to the suspension of weapons and help – ignoring Netanyahu on this process.

Bottom dollar

The current US policy in the region can serve Trump a greater goal: billions of dollars money for the American economy and Some saidalone. But achieving this requires a stable Middle East, and the continuation of the war in Gaza and Iran, approaching nuclear abilities, can disturb this goal.

Of course, the diplomatic agreement on Tehran’s nuclear plans remains to be distant. And Trump’s foreign policy is especially susceptible to turns. But no matter whether the trader’s instinct to proceed commercial and economic contracts with the wealthy states of the Persian Gulf, or true – and related – the desire to stabilize the region, its administration is increasingly pursuing policies contrary to the interests of the current Israeli government.

President Donald Trump Announced during the stay in Saudi Arabia May 14, 2025 that the United States Raise sanctions against Syria. The phrase was a huge victory of the government of the President of Syria Ahmad Al-Sharaa, when he tries to consolidate power for almost six months after the stunning movement of his movement of his long-time Bashar Al Assad regime.

But it was not in lobbying in Syria by itself behalf. By announcing a change of politics, Trump largely assigned a change to his Saudi hosts and also Türkiye. Both nations are Assad’s long-term enemies who quickly advocated Al-Sharaa and force the US to normalize connections with the latest Syria government.

Türkiye, whose resources and earth were strongly affected by instability in neighboring Syria, was especially instrumental Pushing Trump Accept the Post-Assad government, even compared to Israel’s reservations.

How Experts from diplomacy AND Turkish law and politicsWe consider that the development in Syria indicates the Ponadzorska role that a small and average power in regional and international matters can play. This is very true in the Middle East, where world powers, comparable to the USA decreasing and sometimes unpredictable influence.

Opening in Syria

After 13 years destructive civil warSyria is facing a lot of large challenges, including the direct task of constructing the state. Violence is not only willingly visible in Syria itself – as recently Killing AlawitesIN allegedly By government forces or fighters adapted to them, they showed – but the neighboring Israel also has also Positions attacked repeatedly in Syria to weaken the latest government. For the Israeli government, strong, militarized Syria could be a threat, especially in relation to the unstable border on Golan Heights.

Despite the problems that confront the latest government of Syria, she has Nevertheless, it was demonstrated The extraordinary ability to obtain international acceptance-a significant fact, making an allowance for the leadership of Al-Sharaa It is related to Hayat Tahrir Al-Shambefore Linked Al-Qaeda group as one of the foreign terrorist organizations in the USA since 2014.

Türkiye presses its influence

In this context, Turkey’s hand was particularly essential.

The office, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, has taken over time he pressed American president to raise sanctions. Two men hit strong relationship During the first administration of Trump with the President of the USA declaring as “a big fan“Turkish leader.

Diplomacy from behind the scenes in Turkey can be seen as part of a wider effort to fill the vacuum left with the fall of Assad. Doing this not only strengthens Erdogan’s position as a regional player, but also develops his national program.

Türkiye quickly moved on quite a few fronts on the chart of the future Syria course, realizing Economic and safety projects in the country. First of all, Türkiye raised its own Investments in Syria.

Also, because it was Libya AND SomaliaTürkiye has contributed to the training and equipment of latest Syrian security forces.

In the north -eastern Syrian province in Idlib, Türkiye funds education, healthcare and electricity in addition to Turkish lira It is de facto currency in northern Syria.

The roots of these commitments are in the interest of Turkey management of its own security situation.

Since 1984, Türkiye has been fighting Kurdish separatist groups, in particular the Kurdistan of the Workers’ Party or PKK, which is in line with Kurdish Militia YPG In north -eastern Syria – one of the groups that fought with Assad’s forces during the civil war in Syria.

Assad’s fall led Russia from Syria. Meanwhile, Iranian influence also decreased not only as a result of not only Assad’s departure, but also to lowering the military Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon. And USA It doesn’t support anymore Kurdish Militia YPG in north -eastern Syria.

In this void of external influence, Türkiye quickly took advantage of the opportunity to transform the security landscape.

Ankara, who still controls large pieces of territory in the northeast of Syria From the fight against Assad and Syrian Kurdish groups, He agreed to the Syrian set To activate the YPG, armed wing of Kurdish Syrian Democratic Syndrome or SDF to the latest Syrian army.

The Turkish perspective has long been that the fight against PKK can achieve success in the long term with stability in the Syrian land. Now PKK is trying to achieve a room with the Turkish government, but whether SDF in Syria disarms and solves removed from certain. As such, a strong, stable Syrian government, in which the majority of Kurdish majority is accommodated, can be in the best interest of Ankar.

Meanwhile, the success of Al-Sharaa in the reconstruction of Syria after the Civil War would help Turkey on one other front: the issue of Syrian refugees.

Türkiye is currently the host 3.2 million Refugees from Syria – most of each country. The very number and length of the stay of these resettled people burdened the economy and social relations of Turkey, leading to clashes between the Turks and Syrian refugees.

There is also a wide consensus in Turkey that the problem with Syrian refugee in Turkey can only be solved through a comprehensive return strategy.

Although the naturalized Syrians in Turkey are a crucial electoral district at the electoral base of the ruling AK Erdogan party, the only solution provided for currently by President Turkish and his allies is repatriation. For this purpose, the rapid and stable development of infrastructure and housing in Syria is considered obligatory.

Perspectives for small ones

However, Turkey’s strategic probability in Syria is not without a clear risk. The Wtchody of the Israeli army illustrate the challenge that Türkiye stands in developing its own interests in Syria. It is price noting that Trump’s statement regarding sanctions was seemingly announced without knowledge – and Contrary to wishes – Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In addition, Türkiye wants to equalize a growing role in the region to strengthen its position in relation to a long -term dispute in Cyprus. The island, which lies a few hundred miles from the coast of Syria, is divided into two regions, with Greek Cypriots in the south and tearing the Turkish Cypryk north – with Only Türkiye recognizes Self -proclaimed condition in the north. Türkiye is trying to regulate sea jurisdiction in the eastern Mediterranean Agreement with SyriaBut the plan is stuck in a deadline because the European Union supports the position of Greece in Cyprus.

However, Turkish movements in Syria are widely felt elsewhere. Arab nations comparable to Saudi Arabia and Qatar support Post-Assad setting in Syria and see that their very own interests are given along with Turkey, although rivalry The rates are threatened with the Sunni world.

The US will raise sanctions by the US can have long -term political effects exceeding short -term economic effects. Syria has small direct trade In the United States, he only exports his agricultural products and antiques. But the appearance of a political ID and recognition is diplomatic Win for Turkeyand also for Syria. The political opening brings with it The promise of future investments in Syria.

Coping with Syria shows how small Statecraft waters can be marked in their very own way. Days of international affairs dominated by superpowers seem to end – like Many have long anticipated. And in Syria, Türkiye provides a plan on how small they can work in their favor.