Paintings emerging from Syria in the course of the last week showed joy on the streets, because thousands and thousands rejoice the tip of 24 years of repression under the Al-Assad tower.

Rebels rarely tilt the scales in their favor and win the war directly after such a protracted and prolonged impasse. But the plain next query is: what is going to occur next? Looking at a handful of similar examples, history suggests that latest forms of violence can still threaten Syria’s political future.

In Libya, umbrella coalition Rebel forces Known because the National Transition Council, he defeated the Miammar Gaddafi government in 2011. Meanwhile in South Sudan, Victory against Omar al-Bashir He got here in the shape of a successful referendum on independence in the identical yr.

Looking further, in Uganda, Idi Amin, the alliance was broken by the neighboring Tanzania between the 2 competing rebellions in 1979. Joint military campaign Soon after, it ended in Amin’s failure.

The direct consequences of the rebel victory in each of these cases indicate one joint lesson. Where the crushed coalition of armed groups is in a political vacuum, more violence – no less – it might be on the horizon.

Fragile and changing coalitions

Regressing regimes often motivate riot. They may also provide a typical enemy, which, especially when sensing a window of possibilities, allows competing armed groups to postpone differences and cooperation for a typical cause.

Then the transition periods cause uncertainty in regards to the political future. This may make it difficult for former allies united.

Many Libyan militias allied for the National Transition Council in the course of the Uprising against Muammar Gaddafi. But soon He became violent rivals In the competition for political influence in the transitional government they were created in Tripoli.

In the vacuum of power, these latest forms of violence can seem like local turf wars. But they are sometimes attempts to make use of the faction to make use of themselves, because political spoils could be obtained on the national level.

Meanwhile, where the dominant factions compete for national power in the presence of many smaller and more positioned militias, these weaker factions could also be willing to vary loyalty to finish on the winning side.

Fighting in Libya throughout 2017 showed this kind of opportunistic floping. Local militias reminiscent of Kiniyat Brigade They modified their loyalty between the faction of former Prime Minister Khalifa Al-Ghawil, and a competing faction based in Tripolis, who claims that he represents a legitimate government of Libya.

He has a conflict in South Sudan It has been described for a protracted time As an ethnic character. The most important competing leaders, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, belonged to the 2 largest ethnic groups in the country, Dinka and Nuer. But these messages are a more complex and strategic constellation of alliances. Many groups that fought against Kiir were also ethnic Dinkas and vice versa, and loyalty changes over time, because each leader gains a bonus. Some of the newest violence were between the loyal forces towards Machara and the faction of co -creative shards often called Kitgwangwho opposes his leadership.

Numerous reports of international observers and mediators have confirmed The difficulty of brocie and maintaining a stable agreement on the conditions of transition in these countries attributable to liquid and changing coalitions.

Armed groups in Syria have already shown such trends. Command of military operations, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups, which brought the Assad regime, exists only on the name. The dominant group, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), is the amalgam of a minimum of 4 separate militias, while the previous coalitions supported by Turkey and the USA with time connected and crushed.

HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa He promised it All rebels fractions “will be resolved and the warriors trained to join the ranks of the Ministry of Defense.” But history suggests that the rival will probably emerge from one of these blocks to query the HTS claim ID to conduct a passage. This will introduce a brand new element of uncertainty for smaller factions forced to decide on a page.

Looking at the longer term on the election

Even where a stable transitional coalition could be maintained, the room can ultimately threaten the outcomes of the winner-elevated elections.

Violence was avoided in Uganda after amines, so long as two faction leaders who overthrowed him took the best positions in the transitional government of the division of power. But when the election made a transparent win for Milton Obote in 1980, his rival, Yoweri Museveni, He launched his riot again. The so -called Bush war in Uganda will last until 1986, when Museveni’s forces took the capital of Kampal, by force.

The change in Ethiopia, the post -war passage did a bit after the victory Allied Rebel Assault In the case of the authoritarian DERG regime in 1991, the bulk of the Ethiopia rebel factions had clear and clear ethnic and terror bases, in consequence of which the brand new structure emerging from the incorporating national conference transferred power to ethnic regions in the federal system.

This try to create a political participation for former rebels, which aren’t completely depending on the outcomes of the national elections, could have succeeded if the primary or regional elections took place the primary. Ultimately, nonetheless, a minimum of two rebellions returned Low level violence In the Nineteen Nineties, accusing the brand new government of marginalization and attempts to undermine their competitiveness of election.

In any case, devotion seems unlikely in Syria. In addition to Kurdish separatists in the northeast, many of the country’s militias have less clear connections with specific demographic groups and sometimes overlap their areas of influence. And with HTS Now they call A unified state without federal regions, a political game on the national level will remain high and prone to violent forms of competition.

Over the past year, history circles quickly turned in the Middle East.

For a big time, Iran status as a growing power in the region He was considered a consistent reality in the assessment of the Middle East geopolitics. But the events from October 7, 2023 Hamas to Israel saw the position of Iran in the region significantly erosion. Consequently, the balance of power in the Middle East has been irreversibly modified.

The key pillar supporting the previously powerful status of Iran in the Middle East was his cultivation of the “resistance axis“A bunch of Iranian allies in the entire region that acted together against Israel’s and American interests.

Axle members, in addition to Iran himself, are Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi Battle Battle, Houthi and Bashara Al-Assad regime in Syria.

Axis reflection

Israel’s constant war in retaliation for the attack of October 7 saw several of the most vital members The axes have seriously decreased if not fully decimated.

Both Hezbollah and Hamas were humiliated by Destruction of their leadersand their operational abilities have have been significantly reduced.

The biggest blow to Iran’s Proxy Network was probably Last overthrow Assada in Syria, ending with the a long time of the regime considered by the best Iranian strategists as the most vital regional ally in Iran.

The adversarial consequences of those events for the great Iran strategy are generated by questions how significantly weakened Iran will affect the whole world, especially in terms of its influence on the policy of great power in the Middle East.

Undoubtedly, it is a welcome development in the United States, making an allowance for for an extended time hostility towards Iran after 1979 amongst American foreign policy. But China will probably have more refined perspectives based on his commitment Pragmatic maneuvering of foreign policy achieving the highest global goals.

China’s involvement with Iran

Because China has develop into richer and more powerful in recent a long time, they noticed Increasing your diplomatic strength and economic presence around the world. This development was affected by every region of the planet, but the Middle East achieved A spot of special importance For China.

The motivation of the Chinese government to deep involvement in the Middle East is – and remains to be led by A number of key considerations: The Middle East status as the power of oil production, a strategic geographical location connecting the east and west and its status as an extended -term pillar of American foreign policy.

China supported bilateral partnerships throughout the Middle East, But one in every of his longest regional relations was Iran. In Iran, the Chinese authorities saw a rustic that gave him the opportunity to realize China’s principal goals in the region.

After 1979, Iran was by nature anti -AmericanWhich meant that China was more often adopted by Tehran, especially in comparison with other regional powers, similar to Saudi Arabia, which had relatively warm relations with the USA

Perhaps, most significantly, Iran will be relying – to some extent – in order to keep up American interests in the Middle East, making an allowance for its status of growing regional power.

This doesn’t mean that Iran has develop into a Chinese customer state, but slightly that China could provide Iran with diplomatic and economic support, because Iranians used their power to act in a region of great strategic significance for the USA

Future movements of China

Considering the motivations underlying the deep Chinese-Iranian bonds historically, it is obvious that the evaporation of Iran’s strength will probably significantly change the nature of their relationship.

In short, a big a part of Iran’s attractiveness to Chinese decision -makers disappeared with almost the destruction of the regional network. This will probably encourage China to look for deeper ties with other heavy Eastern Middle East, for example Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emiratesachieving your goals in the Middle East – amongst them the principal, Increasing the regional influence at the expense of the USA

But it is usually unlikely that China will completely abandon Iran. Although it may give attention to the most coordinated efforts on the development of deeper connections with other Middle East countries as an alternative of Iran, China would probably fluctuate whether Iran would develop into much more isolated, and subsequently more predisposed to aggressive behavior.

China was one in every of the principal ones Mediators behind the scenes from the Iranian nuclear agreement in 2015, because she wanted regional tensions dispersed by giving up Iran by a nuclear program.

Now that Iran is weakened, he was mainly packed in the corner and has two principal options Going forward: either reaches approaching the West, or enlivens his nuclear program and works more aggressively.

While Iran Ultra-conservative factions that the control of power levers in the country could also be temptation to follow a more aggressive path, it is rather possible that China will likely be An try and use its significant economic lever over Iran to encourage them to implement the examination option.

This is because the Chinese need the Middle East as a source of crude oil to fuel their economy, and since China doesn’t need to be seen by the West as the default partner of a warrior and destabilizing Iran.

China moderating the influence?

On the contrary, China is now Attempt to repair relationships with many Western countries, making an allowance for the importance of Western markets China sick economy.

In fact, China will want to play a job in the inclination of Iran to conclude a contract with the West in the near future, making an allowance for that he’ll show it The upcoming administration of Donald Trump – who’s notoriously hawk in China – you can trust him and work with constructively.

At the end of the day, China will look for a path that minimizes the likelihood of full conflict in the Middle East, making an allowance for the importance of the region for the Chinese economy. The country has a strategic opportunity to signal credibility and reliability in the West, working in order that Iran doesn’t select a more aggressive path.

Lebanon parliament He selected a new president On January 9, after a two -year political impasse and 13 attempts. Joseph Aun reached the victory threshold in the second round of voting after his rival, a candidate supported by Hezbollah named Suleiman French, withdrew from the race.

In his inaugural speech to the Parliament, President Aoun outlined a series of obligations to cope with overlapping crises that led Lebanon to the fall point. However, the implementation of these guarantees can be extremely difficult.

The presidential victory AUN is amazing. He didn’t publicly conduct a work campaign and none of the political parties sponsored him as a favored presidential candidate. So how did Aouna appear to win the presidency?

AUN, as an alternative of a established descendant of the political class commander of the Lebanese army From 2017. Lebanon Army, Lebanese armed forces (LAF) is a rare example of an establishment that is widely seen as a uniting symbol in Lebanon.

Aun effectively stopped the army from caught up with a recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, despite death Over 40 LAF soldiersAnd he played a decisive role in the supervision of a 60-day weapon suspension agreement, in which in November and France in November.

The essential supporters of the Presidential offer of AUN were a loose network of regional and international players, including USA, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. All these states perceive AUN as the best hope for maintaining a fragile suspension of weapons, while supervising the restoration of the domestic government of Lebanon.

They used their lever, providing economic assistance to addiction to Lebanon at the essential political fractions selecting AUN.

The selection of AUN provides further evidence weakening Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon. In recent years, Hezbollah has suffered several political and economic reversal.

In the universal elections in 2022, Hezbollah and his allies lost the parliamentary majority. And then, in 2024, it appears that evidently Israel weakened the hezbollah military machine, including killing his leader Hassan Nasrallah And a few seniors.

The recent overthrow of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria deprived Hezbollah of a powerful ally, while the essential supporter of the group, Iran, is unable to maintain the level of financing. Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah has decreased significantly International sanctions Managed by the US to prevent the regime in Tehran, developing nuclear weapons.

Former president of Lebanon, Michel Aun (Not related to Josephem Aun) He was a longtime ally of Hezbollah. The group hoped that they’d install one other ally at the Presidential Palace, supporting the candidacy of French. But French He withdrew from the race And next to many other legislators, he announced his support for AOUN.

In his first speech as a president Aun said: “My mandate will emphasize the state of the state to monopolize weapons.” Although Aun didn’t call Hezbollah, his words were comprehensible that he would try to disarm the group. Hezbollah parliamentarians succumbed to quietly, and most deputies applauded the AUN statement.

For a good start

Aun accused his presidency of several sublime ambitions. But these ambitions will prove to be difficult to deliver. The power of the presidency has strict restrictions due to its largely symbolic status of figuration.

The president’s position is primarily to serve Lebanon power division system. This system provides representation guarantees in parliament 18 sect communities. To ensure that no group can monopolize political power, the role of the president is reserved for Maronite Christians, while the prime minister must come from the Muslim Sunnic community, and the chamber’s speaker is the Shiite.

President Aun has undertaken to reform the government of the division of power. The evidence from the survey indicates that the Lebanon government has The lowest level of trust In the Middle East. The Lebanese system of division of power is susceptible to dysfunctional political institutions, policy impasse and periodic rounds of fall. Politicians dividing power are known corruption and buying votes.

Aun has a good start. A number of days after the meeting, he convened a parliament to select new prime ministerNawaf Salam, current head of the International Court of Justice. Salam confirmation is a surprise, because, like AUN, it is not seen as a patron of any of the essential political parties in the country.

The incontrovertible fact that the usual trading of horses between the essential pages of the arrangement of the new prime minister of the minister didn’t occur, emphasizes the weakness of Hezbollah, which was unable to get the preferred candidate, Najib Mikati, back into power. In response to the Salam meeting, Accused legislators of Hezbollah Their political opponents attempted to exclude and fragment the country. Salam has a long history calling for reform state and the fight against endemic corruption.

Aun and Salam are actually facing many challenges related to the hope that many Lebanese feel their meetings. They may have to create a government to obtain urgency to create political stability and approve the budget. Lebanon is confronted with the tragic economic situation, which the World Bank he identified as Among the “heaviest crisis episodes visible around the world since the mid -nineteenth century.”

Another urgent priority is the supervision of the current extension Weapon suspension agreement with Israelwhich ends on January 25. The current agreement requires the Israeli army to withdraw from the side of the border.

With the support of the army, large parts of the Lebanese population and the powerful international players of AOUN and Salam create evaporation that give realistic hope for a period of everlasting stability and reconstruction. But finding a way to construct a consensus policy in Lebanon is not going to be easy, especially if the new president and prime minister set a course that leads them to confrontation with Hezbollah.