. The fall of the dictatorship of Bashar Assad In December 2024, he initiated the nervous time of hope and fear of Syrians about future management within the long war.

Although it is not clear what exact political path Syria will likely be, the dilemmas facing the country are just like the experiences of other Arab countries over ten years ago. In the winter of 2010, the outbreak of protests in Tunisia spread throughout the region, overthrowing several regimes In what became referred to as the Arabian Uprising.

While some countries – Egypt and Tunisia – have turn out to be a democracy, although briefly, others, resembling Yemen, Libya and Syria, descended into violence.

In the tip of the years, scientists of political sciences from world wide examined these political changes, taking a look at why so many Arab countries The democratic reform path couldn’t be continued. As a political scientist with specialist knowledge within the regionI distilled it’s research In five key lessons that would now assist in Syria, because he tries to construct a stable and democratic state.

1. Islamist politicians are the primary politicians, and secondly Islamists

One of probably the most smoking questions, given the political direction of Syria after Assad, is the role of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, a group of rebels, which led to the overthrow of Assad.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a former a part of Al-Qaeda who has been withdrawn from the extremist ideology since then There are worries that this moderation is temporary. While some observers might imagine so All Islamist groups need to rigidly implement a narrow interpretation of Islamic law Like the Taliban in Afghanistan, Studies show a much wider range of possibilities For politicians implemented by Islamist groups implemented throughout the office.

For example, the Tunisian Islamist group Ennahda She defended democracy a lot And he helped Write a liberal structure After the country was removed by Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. Similarly, in Egypt, after removing the leader of the Hosni Mubarak engine in the identical 12 months, the Muslim Brotherhood, once a spare Islamic movement, competed successfully and honesty within the democratic processHowever, after all, he put up the identical challenges of every ruling side within the implementation of the principles in power.

But such a path is not predetermined. A recent democratic distance and hug of authoritarianism shows that Islamist politicians resembling President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Undermine democracy when it serves their interests.

Political research has appeared repeatedly that Islamist politicians are like politicians world wide: after they should win elections, they will contribute to the fears of voters. According to data from regional research, most Arabs Express the preference for religious leaders who’re apolitical.

If Syria becomes a democracy, I believe Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham will probably still should take moderation. But whether the group supports democracy is dependent upon the calculation of the organization of what its future looks like in democracy in comparison with more authoritarian types of management. Wide negotiations covering all pages in Syria might help persuade Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham that continuing the trail of moderation is of their best interest. Although nobody can forecast what latest Syria institutions will seem like, research shows that Islamists are as likely as secular parties support democratic norms.

2. The end of corruption is vital

One of Drivers of Arab Spring And the Syrian revolution was anger at corrupt business agreements. Indeed, the relatives and buddies of Assad in truth a monopole over lucrative industries resembling Mobile phone networks. Relaxing these corrupt courtyards and opening industries to competition and license needs to be a superior priority for people searching for a less autocratic future.

In Tunisia, The established corporations fought with anti -corruption reforms Because they said it will hurt investments and growth. But the rationale why economic growth is so weak in lots of parts of the Middle East is Precisely due to these rooted corporations.

The diaspora in Syria has many talented businessmen who can return and find revolutionary corporations if the brand new government opens investments and entrepreneurship outside individuals with political connections.

3. The political dispute is high-quality

Many hopes that the brand new Syria government will likely be free and quite elected. In order for democracy to work, it must effectively make changes Response to voters’ fears.

Initially, Syria can have to Decide on basic principles resembling a structure that may cover many alternative groups. This wide coalition may be easier to attain compromises Due to the joint experience of the opposition as a part of the previous dictatorship. However, an attempt to keep up this unity can mask Important political debates that must occur.

In order for voters to see the change, electoral competition must bring a actual change in politics. The best coalitions of events in Tunisia He promoted unity as an alternative of fighting difficult decisions This resonated with on a regular basis fears of individuals. In time, the voters stopped Identifying the parties and lost confidence within the elections. The elected President of Tunisia, Kais Saed, took advantage of this apathy to shut the parliament of the country – an motion that was Essentially popular Despite the lack of democracy.

A practical response to this concern is to construct strong parties, the explanations that pro-democratic organizations resembling National Democratic Institute are superb in. Effective pages help voters Preparation of a package of rules that may go through parliament and constructing a coalition.

While the opposition of Syria has extensive experience in waging war, it has relatively little on the road to campaigns and constructing Strong party brands. These more mundane goals are a key connective tissue that makes democracy work.

4. Bureaucrats should serve society

Elections are chosen by leaders, but durable, popular changes also require bureaucrats who implement latest policies – so -called “Horizontal responsibility. “The Democratic Egyptian government after 2011 left many state institutions intact, and later with rebel Autonomous anti -democratic agencies. Meanwhile, in Sudan, through which a short breakthrough of liberalization after the overthrow of his longtime dictator, Omar Al-Bashira, in 2019 This was still disillusioned since the bureaucrats lobbyed politicians for support.

Without the cooperation of bureaucrats, basic state services fall, which results in such phenomena Criminal waves and lack of trust in democracy.

The government led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham in Syria has already begun reform of bureaucracy by racing high officials from the previous regime, maintaining rank and files. However, effective supervision requires participation of chosen leaders with an ID card requiring responsibility from bureaucrats. For those that need to be involved within the transition of Syria, providing technical support in the fast reconstruction of ministries is one in every of the ways to extend the probabilities of a successful transition.

5. Hold the military close

If the brand new government of Syria falls, history suggests that the military will likely be the almost definitely wrongdoer. The Egyptian army undermined the democratic passage of the country through secretly supporting the anti -Islamistic opposition. The Sudan army agreed to the protesting demands of latest leadership, but De facto providing control over vital government institutions.

Recent studies show that keeping the military on top of things means Giving her part in democracy by financing the items needed, resembling salaries and equipment. However, it is equally vital Establishment of civil control over the military, ordering a military report back to chosen leaders about its budgets, politicians and deployments. Military assistance is mandatory, but it surely still have to be related to strict obligations to civil control.

The future is Syria

Political crossings are too complex to set off on easy forecasts. But the experience of countries that recorded the expansion and reduce in democracy in Arab spring, and later winter might help latest Syria leaders avoid expensive political mistakes.

Ultimately, nevertheless, the fate of the country rests with its own people. They survived the Assad regime – and who will make a very powerful decisions for the longer term of Syria.

The maps are ubiquitous-for phones, flight and automobile displays and in textbooks around the world. While some maps determine territories and boundaries, others show different blocks of voting in elections, and GPS devices help drivers go to the destination.

But no matter the purpose, all maps have something to do: They are political. The maps involve making decisions about what to disregard and what to have in mind. They are subject to selection, classification, abstraction and simplifications. And studying elections that enter the maps, like meHe can reveal various stories about the land and individuals who consider it their very own.

Nowhere is it more true than in the contested regions that today include contemporary Israel and Palestinian territories. Since the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, various government and non -governmental organizations and political interests have been involved in what’s best to explain as “Maps of wars. “

The region’s maps use the name of places, the position of borders and the inclusion or omission of some territories to present contrasting geopolitical visions. To today, Israel or Palestinian territories may fall from some maps, depending on the policy of their creators.

This doesn’t apply only to the Middle East – “MAP wars” are ongoing around the world. Some of the more known examples include the disputes between Ukraine and Russia, Taiwan and ChinaAND India and China. Everyone is involved in the controversy regarding the territorial integrity of nation -states.

Short history of maps

Traditionally, maps were used to represent cosmology, cultures and beliefs. In the seventeenth century, the maps represented spatial relations on a given territory Beaome vital for the creation of national states. Such official maps helped with an attachment of territories and determine property rights. Indeed, mapping territory that’s to know and control it.

Recently, map creation tools have change into more available. Anyone who has access to the computer and the Internet can now create and share “alternative maps” that present various visions of the territory and make a number of geopolitical claims.

And the maps produced in the conflict region, akin to Israel and Palestinian territories, tell a wealthy story about the relationship between map creation and politics.

Middle East mapping

While The British Palestine Mandate in 1917–1947British inspectors mapped territories to manage the ground and its people. It was an attempt to interchange more informal claims from the Ottoman land of those times.

By Establishment of Israel in 1948IN Only about 20% of the total area of ​​what’s often known as historical Palestine – The undeniable fact that he still fueled disputes about the earth today. The British efforts of mapping and their omission enabled the newly established state of Israel to acknowledge most territories as state lands, thus delegitimizing claims from the Palestinian region.

The maps also helped construct an Israeli state. Surveyors and planners mapped the land to assign land rights and helped construct state infrastructure, including roads and railways.

But the maps also helped to create a sense of nationality. Maps representing the shape of the nation by sketching its national borders are often known as Maps “Logo”. They can increase the sense of national unity and a sense of national belonging.

After establishing, the Israeli state converted the maps of the region. The Israeli government commission invented Hebrew names, which previously replaced Arab and Christian names for various cities and villages on the official map of Israel. At the same time, there have been previously Palestinian topographs and places omitted from the map.

However, some Palestinian map creators still create maps, including the Palestinian named and present the historical Palestine before 1948-which extends from the Jordan River in the East to the Mediterranean in the West. Such maps are used to support the right of Palestinians for landing and supporting the sense of national affiliation.

At the same time, Palestinian cartographers who work with Palestinian authority – The government body, which manages partial civil control over Palestinian enclaves on the west shore – creates official maps of the West Brzeg and Gaza in the hope of creating the future state of Palestine. They adapt their maps to UN efforts to map territories in accordance with international law by winning the West Bank and Gaza as separate from Israel.

After In 1967, the war between Israel and his Arab neighborsIsrael occupied the west and gauze. As a results of the wars of the map, he intensified, especially between different fractions in Israel. The leftist “peace camp”, which was dedicated to territorial compromises with Palestinians, was directed against the Israeli right -wing wing involved in the recovery of the “promised land” for ensuring the security of Israel.

Such incompatible geopolitical visions are still reflected in produced maps. The maps of the “peace camp” adhere to the designation of territories in accordance with international law. For example, they include a green line – a recognized international weapon line between the western shore and Israel. Official maps produced by the Israeli government, while, He stopped setting a green line after 1967.

Wider and border disputes

Various interest groups and political actors not only used the region’s maps to make competitive geopolitical claims, but the maps also played a key role in sporadic efforts to ascertain peace in the region.

. 1993 Oslo contractsThe goal was that after a five -year temporary period, a everlasting peace settlement was negotiated based on the boundaries set out on these maps.

Consequently, Palestinian planners and surveyors he mapped the territory Assigned to the future state of Palestine. Due to the undeniable fact that Oslo guarantees only the future state – but with its borders and the level of sovereignty still uncertain – Palestinian experts are still preparing for the ruling territories by mapping them.

Oslo maps are still used today to stipulate the geopolitical visions of Israel and the future state of Palestine based on international law. But for a lot of Israelis, the vision of Oslo The two -state solution has died – The attack of Hamas, a Palestinian nationalist political organization, which rules gauze, on Israel on October 7, 2023, was his last blow.

Another war between Israel and Hamas, currently being suspended by weapons, from the very starting was related to the maps.

In December 2023, the Israeli army published an internet “Map of evacuation”, which divided the Gaza belt into 623 zones. Palestinians can go to online mode – provided that they’ve access to electricity and the Internet on the territory harassed by browning – to search out out if their area has been called to evacuate. Israeli military commanders I used this map Decide where to shoot raids and perform ground maneuvers.

But the map also served the political goal: to persuade the skeptical world Israel took care of protect civilians. Regardless, its introduction caused it Confusion and fear amongst Palestinians.

Determining the road forward

Maps usually are not only to grasp the past and present – they assist people also imagine the future. Different maps can reveal conflicting geopolitical visions.

For example, in January 2024 Israel’s victory conference. The goal was to plan the resettlement of Gaza and increase Jewish settlements on the west bank. The speakers were in favor of transferring Palestinians from the belt to Sinai through “voluntary emigration”. Because Jewish settlers plan to return to Gaza, and the speakers cite each the safety of the Bible and Israel on justification, the oversized map showed the location of the proposed Jewish settlements.

Similarly, the Israeli Movement for the settlement in Southern Lebanon published Maps of planned Jewish settlements in southern Lebanon.

Such maps reveal the desire for some in Israel for “Larger Israel“-Inzar described in 1904 by Theodor Herzl, considered the father of up to date Zionism, as the stream of Egypt to the Euphrate.

No wonder that Palestinians make different maps to assume the future. Flast appearing – Palestinian and international initiative, which mixes various experts, organizations and founders – uses maps connecting gauze with the west bank and a wider region.

Their goal is to rework gauze in Commercial Hub for Trade, Tourism and Innovation and integrate it with the global economy. Therefore, maps of urban projects, airports and seaports overlap the cartographic contours of Gaza; and the corridor of Bank Gaza-West, which could be sealed for Israeli security, can connect two geographically separate Palestinian territories.

Such maps reflect the efforts of Palestinian stakeholders in order to further study territories, which since the agreement in Oslo were to be the future state of Palestine.

A brand new era of expansion geopolitics

With the current US administration more adapted to the right -wing Israeli policyMaps of a larger Israel can lead what Hagit ofran from Room now calls the starting of the latest “Larger Israel“Politics period.

Seemingly increasing US rule, a long -term policy of supporting a two -state solution in which Gaza could be a part of the Palestinian state, Donald Trump on February 4, 2025. He raised a plan for the United States to “take over” gauzeby leading their current residents and transforming the enclave into “” Riviera Middle East “.

Such a move could be one other try to convert borders in the Middle East. However, this is able to not end the “map of the map” in Israel/Palestine.

Suggestion of the President of the United States Donald Trump that the USA will pass a torn war and create “the Middle East” riviera “ was Immediately condemned by the international communityincluding American allies and opponents.

His threats appear only two weeks in a weapon suspension agreement between Israel and Hamas, and the risk is undermined by regional diplomatic efforts that took Possible offer of weapon suspension.

A weapon suspension agreement organized in three phases includes the exchange of Israeli hostages for some Palestinian prisoners; withdrawal of Israeli forces along the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors; and the return of significant humanitarian aid needed to rebuild the war-torn Gaza-Nie “Clean it“, As Trump suggested.

In the post-war landscape-among the threats of Trump He stood next to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu In the White House – Israel is probably in a paradoxical situation: both higher and worse.

On the one hand, Israel is safer than ever before. He used the shock of attacks of October 7 to remodel the regional balance of power, showing military force and restoring deterrence.

On the other hand, the relentless bombing of Israel in gas, his reluctance to offer public pressure and perceived ignoring international law and order based on the principles They isolated the country, probably transforming it right into a pariah on the world stage.

Use of a disaster

Historically, Israel implemented a counterbalance generally known as “Mowing grass” Designed to weaken their opponents by limited targeted military campaigns, which deliberately don’t stop full destruction.

The strategy never geared toward solving the original causes of the conflict. Rather, he focused on stopping a big -scale Hamas, reliable attacks on Israel.

On October 7, it was exactly what “mowing grass” tried to avoid. However, the passage of security unintentionally created mature conditions so that Israel could justify – even for a limited time – a much larger and more destructive campaign against Palestinian groups of fighters. A window appeared and Israel caught it.

Israel ground and air campaign in the last 15 months significantly weakened The group, though, as the recently shows show of strength, Has not been eliminated.

The control of the Israeli army over key border points, the destruction of tunnels used to perform attacks and weapons of smuggling and targeted murders of political leaders could make Hamas again to use similar levels of sculpture in the near future.

Hezbollah in the north

Like in Gaza, the Israeli government used the relentless rocket attacks of Hezbollah to justify a separate military campaign deeply on Lebanese territory.

Within just a few weeks, the offensive reportedly killed more than 4,000 hezbollah fighters, destroyed key weapons buffers and critical infrastructure and pushed the group North of the Litani RiverAbout 30 kilometers from the Israeli border.

Israel shocked the world even more when at the same time detonated pagers and scrubs Used by Hezbollah fighters. Then there was a number of targeted killings, including the longtime leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah and his then success, Hashem Safeddine.

The controlling of the Hezbollah command chain together with the lack of implementation of an efficient contract revealed that the group is much weaker than expected. This, in turn, forced Hezbollah to make significant concessions and give up to Weapon suspension agreement It worked against his interests.

Wider region

Houthi’s movement supported by Iran in Yemen also entered the conflict Grabbing Israeli and Western ships And starting a series of drone and rocket attacks on Israel.

But Israel reacted with greater strength, showing its ability to steer large -scale bullets, drones and aerial kilometers in Yemen.

And for the first time Israel and Iran got involved in direct Tit-for-Tat escalation alternativecausing concerns about the entire regional war. Israel’s defense systems, supported by allies and neighboring countries, successfully thwarted lots of of Iranian missiles.

Israel’s response successfully bypassed the Iranian anti-Misie defense system, sending a decisive message of military superiority. Israel also showed its advantage of intelligence by Hamas leaders’ assassin ismail Haniyeh in Iran, when he lived in a relationship secured by the Islamic Corps of the Revolutionary Guard.

The collapse of the Syria Assad regime also created a vacuum of power, which prompted Israel to behave Hundreds of raids geared toward destroying weapons abandoned by the Syrian army, surface defense rocket systems and take over the strategic territory near its border.

The growing presence of Israel in Syria and the dominance over the airspace is now much easier to capture the supply chain between Iran and Hezbollah.

All for the cost

Israeli striving to stop opponents and restore its position as regional power reached a high price: its popularity.

Diplomatically, some of Israel’s closest allies, including Canada, France and Great Britain, even have Forbidden or limited sales of weapons to Israel.

Once, unified support for Israel in the USA from the Republican and Democratic Parties has develop into Tight. General Assembly of the United Nations He voted for the most part That the Security Council considers the adoption of Palestine as 194. Member – Movement perceived by Israel as a reward for October 7.

Israel is also in the face of the Public Relations crisis in the International Criminal Court, where it is currently subject to the task violation of the genocidal convention In relation to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Similarly court issued an order For Netanyahu and the former defense minister Yoava Gallant for “deliberate deprivation of gazantes of food and directing attacks on civilians.”

Israel’s wavy effects spilled abroad, affecting a major part of the world, and especially public opinion of younger generations about the conflict.

For example, in the USA SUF research report They stated that Americans under 30 years of age sympathy with Palestinians than Israelis. The results are similar in Canada, and the youth aged 18 to 24 reported Support for Hamas on Israel Through the margin of two to at least one.

Is Israel more or less secure?

While Israel’s response to Iran and “Axis of resistance” It placed the country in a safer, more military dominant position than before the war, the consequences of this strategy could also be short -lived.

Gaza paintings – loss of civil life, resettled families and ravenous children with out a real perspective of the future – modified public opinion against Israel. This was shred with diplomatic relations with once dependent allies-although apparently not the US under Trump-a wider peace process in the Middle East and fuel the revival of anti-Semitism, especially on university campuses, I didn’t see the Holocaust.

But above all, Israel’s response to October 7 may function the strongest recruitment tool for future cycles of Palestinian violence. For many, especially young people around the world, it is possible that future violence will be seen as a legitimate form of resistance.

And if this is the case, together with the unlikely perspective of Israel, permanently discouraging Iran and his proxies, and with the American president, who is in favor of moving the entire population of Gaza situation than ever before.