In the first 100 days of his second term of office, US President Donald Trump showed a desire to bend over the air force when his administration decides that military force is mandatory abroad.

So far, the second Trump administration has begun Limited raids in Somalia and conducted a weekly aviation campaign against Houthi entangled in Iran who rule the majority of Yemen. The president also threatened direct strikes against Iran himself should Conversations about the latest nuclear agreement collapse.

This turn for Airpower for Trump is smart to me. The air force is low-cost in comparison with ground wars and typically involves Less victims For individuals who strike. This helps to clarify why American leaders, including Trump as self -styled “Anti -war president“He often considers it attractive.

But if the Trump administration is just not cautious, it might fall into what military strategists call informally “Drive trap. “This happens when the targets of military force are too high, in order that the air force itself can achieve, potentially resulting in the escalation of the conflict to the saving face, which could-if history is a guide-guide-carry out ground forces from the USA or their local allies.

US presidents, similar to Lyndon Johnson, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, fell into this trap. In Vietnam, Balkwanie and Syria ended in much larger wars than they expected, with consequences for civil victims, international peace and damage to America’s fame abroad.

As Expert in the field of US National Security Policy and The Middle East regionI imagine that Trump’s administration is threatened with falling into the trap of the air force in Yemen and may potentially do the same in Iran if you happen to resolve to make use of direct strength against Tehran. Recognition of this military and historical risk and the selection of a type of ramp from continuous raids might be the best hope that the US government must avoid further escalation in a full -scale war.

Aviation bombardment limits

Tests shows that Airpower is the only when used for limited purposes – similar to taking the leaders of the terrorist groups Support for ground operations more ambitious goalslike strengthening or overthrowing governments.

Given the sophistication of the American air force, a Joint error In particular, the American strategists are considering of great strategic profits can only be achieved by dropping bombs from above.

But when the air force fails, leaders can feel the pressure to increase the scope of the conflict and end with larger military obligations than expected.

Johnson’s initial strategy just for the air force to check Stop communism in southern Vietnam It was impossible to regret what led to his decision to involve half 1,000,000 American soldiers in the war. This is an prolonged conflict supplying the years of war, with massive humanitarian and political consequences for people in Southeast Asia and America, in addition to everlasting reputational damage to the USA

He is nervous about the credibility of us and NATO, Clinton escalated raids – almost to Land forces introduction point – for the ambitious end of the arrest of the Balkans in the early Nineteen Nineties. Similarly, Obama’s initial strategy only in the field of air force, to “degrad and destroy ”by the Islamic State group He hesitated quickly, leading Obama under intensive pressure in the country and abroad to introduce hundreds of ground soldiers to combat the territorial advantages of the group in Syria and Iraq.

In each case, relying in the air force itself didn’t achieve their goals.

Air trap in Yemen

There are reasons to think that the conditions in Yemen mean that Trump may fall into an analogous trap.

Trump adopted the strategy of only the air force to “Completely annihilate“Houthis, a Powerful Rebel movement It’s all except won the last civil war of the Yemenian. The direct explanation for the aviation campaign, the policy inaugurated by Biden administration and dramatically prolonged by Trump, is Restore free shipping flow In the Red Sea, Houthi disrupted with strength to protest about the ongoing Israel war in Gaza.

Early signs are that this air campaign is just not going well.

Despite United States burning by finished supplies of ammunition at the cost of USD 1 billion for bombing a minimum of 800 sites From March 15 Houthi are undetermined and the shipping volume in the Red Sea as depressed as all the time. Houthi Attacks on American ships and Israel To proceed. AND The Houthi missile was barely missing Ben-Gurion airport in Israel on May 4.

In fact direct attacks on Houthi and a rapidly growing variety of victims Among the Yemeni civilians From the Trump’s bombing campaign, it appears to be Houthis reinforcement ‘ political position in Yemen. In a very shocking case, American bombs supposedly hit the African migrant campKilling and hurt dozens of individuals.

Humanitarian crisis from a brutal bomb campaign through the coalition under the leadership of Saudi against Houthi at the end of 2010 he had An identical effect.

Airpower also played a giant role. Saudi coalition, maintained by the USA, involved in some 25,000 raids against Houthi, killing or mutilated roughly 19,000 civilians. However, despite such an amazing strength, Houthis still passed the territory and eventually won the civil war, According to experts.

Since then, they’ve been de facto rulers of the country.

Now Trump is investigating further escalation options to defeat Houthi. Reports indicate His administration is considering Armament, training and enabling Houti fighters who’re loosely related to the Yemen government in exile to begin ground operations.

Between diplomacy and quagmire

Proxies are a standard tool to which leaders turn to, to which they turn once they were caught in a drive trap. Sometimes these proxies meet American policy goals similar to Kurdish people’s protection units or YPGwhich the USA helped Defeat the Islamic State Caliphate in 2019.

Often, American deputies are incurred each strategic and humanitarian, which results in further escalation, strategic swamps for the USA and the lack of political life and sovereignty for attacked people. South Vietnam was an instructive example.

Canceled by corruption, bad management, weakness and political struggle, Army and government of southern Vietnam It turned out to be so ineffective in the fight against the North Vietnamese that Johnson decided to begin a ground war when the American air force failure.

Today, the resistance against Houthi in Yemen looks more like a South Vietnam government than Kurdish YPG. According to 2025 Report with Sufan CenterA Security Think Tank, Houthi forces are badly trained and regarded unable to win over Houthis without much support in the USA.

Meanwhile Houti resistance against Houti It consists of about 85,000 fighters, in comparison with about 350,000 for Houthi.

In the event of constant the air war or escalating it right into a more versatile conflict, American officials may proceed to strive for diplomacy to try to search out a political solution to Yemen conflict.

Despite the public threats of the Trump administration, the USA is already negotiating with the predominant sponsor of Houthi, Iran.

For their part, the Houthi still insist that they stop attacking ships in the Red Sea Israel’s war in Gaza retention, something that happened During the last suspension of weapons to gauze.

The Trump administration may consider in search of alternatives similar to direct or indirect conversations if he desires to avoid getting stuck in a widened conflict in Yemen. History is filled with examples of what is going on when Airpower takes by itself logic.

The second week in a row, senior officials from the United States and Iran will meet to participate in talks about the Iranian nuclear program. This is the second round in the latest negotiations – the first took place in Oman on April 12.

But the last statements of each the White House and older Iranian officials, including Opinion difference Where talks should happen, they suggest that quick diplomatic successes may not be available.

The position of Donald Trump in the Iran case was surprisingly belligerent. It was the first Trump administration to withdraw from the nuclear agreement in 2015 and imposed on Iran the policy of “maximum pressure”. Since his return to the oval office, Trump has again imposed this policy of maximum pressure.

Publishing on xThe American Special Eastern envoy in the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said that “Iran must stop and eliminate the nuclear enrichment program and weapons.” He also called for verification of all spare missiles in the Islamic Republic.

Iranian officials rejected these demands of the US loudly, along with the Minister of Foreign Affairs ABBAS ARAGHCHCH, claiming that the rocket program is not for discussion.

Tehran needs a contract

There is little doubt that Iran wants a contract, perhaps he even needs a contract. It was like that Strinking hard by sanctions Over the past decade, which have hollowed out, the country’s middle class.

Israel’s military strikes towards Iran and his allies over the past yr have been eroded the ideological and military strength of the Islamic Republic and a wider “axis of resistance”. With the weakening of many allies, Iran missiles are much more vital as deterrent.

The strong line adopted by the Trump administration leaves little space for the maneuver. He risks much more that in Iran, which are less likely to have interaction diplomatically. But every militant rhetoric from votes in Iran risk pouring fuel in an incendent situation.

At the same time, the Islamic Republic is in the face of a number of serious pressure in the country, equivalent to this woman, life, libertarian movement, and increasingly more loud opposition abroad-especially from self-proclaimed Prince Reza PahlaviSon of Shah, who was removed in 1979.

Although Iran may desire a contract, he may not give up – especially after the events of last yr. And it shouldn’t.

We weigh her strategy

Jastrzębie in the USA, Israel and other countries, of course, heralded the position of Trump’s administration. The fears of the Iranian nuclear program are still guided by the actions of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and others – although there have been reports that Israeli strikes for the purposes of Iran were proposed Methed by Trump in favor of greater negotiations.

While the Persian Gulf countries would someday have a good time a difficult position towards Iran, the situation is now different. Iran’s long -time rival, Saudi Arabia, put away his many years in the hope of a more prosperous future.

In agreement in 2023, through China, Saudi Arabia and Iran He agreed to normalize relationsOpening the embassies and starting a series of coordinated military exercises. For Saudi Arabia, especially his crown prince and de facto ruler of Mohammed Bin Salman, regional stability is obligatory in the implementation of the ambitious VISION2030 – who bends strongly in the global trust of investors.

As a result, the kingdom has taken a practical change in regional matters, setting out The process of diplomatic rapprochement This surprised many observers. Riyad also took steps towards normalization with Israel, although the ongoing destruction of the gauze Such movements stoppedAt least for now.

At the same time wherein nuclear negotiations happen, Israeli attacks goals in Syria To proceed. The fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024-and the rear place took her a few years of supporter, Russia-Russia modified the political landscape of Syria.

Although his former president, Bashar al-Assad, has A shelter was present in RussiaMoscow undertook a temporary observer, willingly not antagonize the latest Syria regime and threatens her strategically vital military bases on the Mediterranean coast. Members of groups previously favored by the Assad regime, especially the Alawi community, They escaped to the Russian Navy base in Latakia in search of protection.

But 1000’s of others were killed amongst the growing violence as the strength of the latest regime, led by Ahmad Al-Shary, attempt to extinguish all the stays of the Assad’s regime-series of events that look incredibly much like what happened in Iraq 20 years ago, when the trial “Reference of this”. He tried to remove all traces of the Saddam Hussein regime from public life.

Fragile regional order

The situation in the entire region is uncertain, and the actions of global powers are still resounding. While Washington is pressure on Tehran and Moscow, in addition to the scope of Chinese influence in the region increases.

Ironically, Trump’s tariffs on China can push Beijing further to the Middle East, attempting to use the available possibilities. His lane and road initiative is positioned by the Middle East strongly in the strategic interests of China. It will probably open a brand new front in the competition between Washington and Beijing.

All the time people from the Middle East still pay the hardest price. Ongoing wars and uncertainty, fears of regional conflict and unsure political conditions – in addition to rising food prices and pressure on health care – they create a perfect storm that increases pressure and challenges related to on a regular basis life.

The Jordanian authorities banned the Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest opposition movement in the Kingdom, in recent repression. On Wednesday, April 23, security forces Invaded offices of the Brotherhoodconfiscal assets and real estate and forbade all the group’s activities.

Per week earlier, 16 members of the Brotherhood They were arrested for alleged planning attacks for goals in Jordan with rockets and drones. The brotherhood, whose members of the Jordanian Minister of the Interior Mazen Al-Faraya claims that “he works in the shade and is involved in activities that could undermine stability and security,” has Any links were refused to attack plots.

The ban on brotherhood, the Islamist movement, which wants a greater role of faith in public life, appears at a time when the Jordanian government is in the face of intensive pressure on the war in Gaza.

The brotherhood organized months demonstrations IN solidarity with Palestinians. He was also loud in his own support for the Palestinian armed group Hamas I demanded the dismissal of the Jordan Peace Treaty with Israel.

At the same time, King of Jordan got here Abdullah II under great pressure From the administration of Donald Trump in the USA to the reset of Palestinians from the occupied Strip Gaza and West Brzeg. If he agreed, this movement would risk perception as a betrayal of the Palestinian case.

The Jordanian authorities had a restless relationship with the brotherhood since the late Eighties, when the political system of the kingdom opened. They desired to limit its influence.

In 2016, the headquarters of the Brotherhood in the capital, Amman, He was closed And his assets were transferred to a brand new organization called the Association of the Muslim Brotherhood Society, referred to as “allowed” Muslim Brotherhood. When ideological divisions appeared in the movement, the authorities tried to make use of internal divisions.

Recent repression is a striking repressive phrase. It means a departure from the conclusion of movement to exclude it from public life.

However, the brotherhood stays popular. In September 2024 Winning parliamentary elections. It took 31 places in the 138-member parliament, ensuring victory in constituencies throughout the country at the best results of the elections for over three a long time.

His success was largely reduced to the demonstration of the Brotherhood in support of the Palestinians. These demonstrations resonated in Jordan, where nearby Half of the population It is of Palestinian origin. The party also benefited from changes to the election regulations before the election, which He gave more importance to political parties, and fewer independent candidates.

But under the creator of Jordan’s creator’s system, the king maintains most of the authorities, especially in the field of internal security and foreign affairs. The palace strictly controls political life. So the Islamic front of the motion was not invited to hitch the recent government, which consists of the Pro-Monarchy party.

The key query now is whether or not the authorities also prohibit the front of Islamic shares, despite electoral profits.

Conflict with the Crown

Even before the last repression, Islamists in Jordan were afraid of confrontation with the authorities. Many suspected that the palace desired to close the brotherhood movement and leave the weakened party, which may very well be easier.

During a visit to Jordan, shortly after the election in September, one older front of the Islamic motion told me: “They (monarchy) simply want a party in a superficial form. The party without any presence.”

Although the brotherhood was under pressure, he was still in a position to handle most of its activities. Older party members even took part in the Royal Committee of “Political Modernization” in 2021, which developed reforms to vary the election regulations to strengthen political parties.

However, many in the brotherhood were afraid that there was a confrontation with the palace. One figure of the older brotherhood told me in October 2024: “The Brotherhood is a huge, universal organization with social and political presence. The clash between the state and brotherhood would have a negative impact on the society and the legitimacy of the political system.”

Jordan’s Brotherhood is just not alone in the face of the crisis. Other Islamist organizations in the whole region experience political failures, over a decade after the Arab spring is established in 2011. It seems to supply recent opportunities.

In Tunisia, where a democratic passage was completely reversed from 2021 were trapped.

The arrests were a part of a large wave of repression against critics of regimes, including politicians, judges, lawyers and human rights activists. Ennahda, who spent a decade in the government in 2011–2021, has He suffered internal divisions.

In Morocco, the party of justice and development, an Islamist party, which also spent a decade in the government since 2011, he suffered a serious defeat In the last election in 2021

The party’s losses were partly the results of restrictions at the time of voting. They included recent rules regarding the division of places and the proven fact that some party candidates were disqualified from running.

But the losses were also attributable to internal disputes after Prime Minister Saaadeddine Othmani signed normalization Agreement with Israel in 2020 with a view to avoid confrontation with the monarchy that controls foreign affairs.

In Kuwait, The parliament has been suspended In 2024, because the ruling Emir, Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, complained about the political net. This maintained all opposition parties, including Islamists, aside from the political process. And in Algeria, Islamist parties were Cooperated or marginalized From the bitter civil war in the Nineties.

Opinion The surveys show it Many people in the Middle East wish to see a major role of faith in public life. But the rulers throughout the region are increasingly cautious towards Islamist parties, which want not only to introduce a more conservative social program, but in addition to query undemocratic regimes.