The Jordanian authorities banned the Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest opposition movement in the Kingdom, in recent repression. On Wednesday, April 23, security forces Invaded offices of the Brotherhoodconfiscal assets and real estate and forbade all the group’s activities.

Per week earlier, 16 members of the Brotherhood They were arrested for alleged planning attacks for goals in Jordan with rockets and drones. The brotherhood, whose members of the Jordanian Minister of the Interior Mazen Al-Faraya claims that “he works in the shade and is involved in activities that could undermine stability and security,” has Any links were refused to attack plots.

The ban on brotherhood, the Islamist movement, which wants a greater role of faith in public life, appears at a time when the Jordanian government is in the face of intensive pressure on the war in Gaza.

The brotherhood organized months demonstrations IN solidarity with Palestinians. He was also loud in his own support for the Palestinian armed group Hamas I demanded the dismissal of the Jordan Peace Treaty with Israel.

At the same time, King of Jordan got here Abdullah II under great pressure From the administration of Donald Trump in the USA to the reset of Palestinians from the occupied Strip Gaza and West Brzeg. If he agreed, this movement would risk perception as a betrayal of the Palestinian case.

The Jordanian authorities had a restless relationship with the brotherhood since the late Eighties, when the political system of the kingdom opened. They desired to limit its influence.

In 2016, the headquarters of the Brotherhood in the capital, Amman, He was closed And his assets were transferred to a brand new organization called the Association of the Muslim Brotherhood Society, referred to as “allowed” Muslim Brotherhood. When ideological divisions appeared in the movement, the authorities tried to make use of internal divisions.

Recent repression is a striking repressive phrase. It means a departure from the conclusion of movement to exclude it from public life.

However, the brotherhood stays popular. In September 2024 Winning parliamentary elections. It took 31 places in the 138-member parliament, ensuring victory in constituencies throughout the country at the best results of the elections for over three a long time.

His success was largely reduced to the demonstration of the Brotherhood in support of the Palestinians. These demonstrations resonated in Jordan, where nearby Half of the population It is of Palestinian origin. The party also benefited from changes to the election regulations before the election, which He gave more importance to political parties, and fewer independent candidates.

But under the creator of Jordan’s creator’s system, the king maintains most of the authorities, especially in the field of internal security and foreign affairs. The palace strictly controls political life. So the Islamic front of the motion was not invited to hitch the recent government, which consists of the Pro-Monarchy party.

The key query now is whether or not the authorities also prohibit the front of Islamic shares, despite electoral profits.

Conflict with the Crown

Even before the last repression, Islamists in Jordan were afraid of confrontation with the authorities. Many suspected that the palace desired to close the brotherhood movement and leave the weakened party, which may very well be easier.

During a visit to Jordan, shortly after the election in September, one older front of the Islamic motion told me: “They (monarchy) simply want a party in a superficial form. The party without any presence.”

Although the brotherhood was under pressure, he was still in a position to handle most of its activities. Older party members even took part in the Royal Committee of “Political Modernization” in 2021, which developed reforms to vary the election regulations to strengthen political parties.

However, many in the brotherhood were afraid that there was a confrontation with the palace. One figure of the older brotherhood told me in October 2024: “The Brotherhood is a huge, universal organization with social and political presence. The clash between the state and brotherhood would have a negative impact on the society and the legitimacy of the political system.”

Jordan’s Brotherhood is just not alone in the face of the crisis. Other Islamist organizations in the whole region experience political failures, over a decade after the Arab spring is established in 2011. It seems to supply recent opportunities.

In Tunisia, where a democratic passage was completely reversed from 2021 were trapped.

The arrests were a part of a large wave of repression against critics of regimes, including politicians, judges, lawyers and human rights activists. Ennahda, who spent a decade in the government in 2011–2021, has He suffered internal divisions.

In Morocco, the party of justice and development, an Islamist party, which also spent a decade in the government since 2011, he suffered a serious defeat In the last election in 2021

The party’s losses were partly the results of restrictions at the time of voting. They included recent rules regarding the division of places and the proven fact that some party candidates were disqualified from running.

But the losses were also attributable to internal disputes after Prime Minister Saaadeddine Othmani signed normalization Agreement with Israel in 2020 with a view to avoid confrontation with the monarchy that controls foreign affairs.

In Kuwait, The parliament has been suspended In 2024, because the ruling Emir, Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, complained about the political net. This maintained all opposition parties, including Islamists, aside from the political process. And in Algeria, Islamist parties were Cooperated or marginalized From the bitter civil war in the Nineties.

Opinion The surveys show it Many people in the Middle East wish to see a major role of faith in public life. But the rulers throughout the region are increasingly cautious towards Islamist parties, which want not only to introduce a more conservative social program, but in addition to query undemocratic regimes.

The second week in a row, senior officials from the United States and Iran will meet to participate in talks about the Iranian nuclear program. This is the second round in the latest negotiations – the first took place in Oman on April 12.

But the last statements of each the White House and older Iranian officials, including Opinion difference Where talks should happen, they suggest that quick diplomatic successes may not be available.

The position of Donald Trump in the Iran case was surprisingly belligerent. It was the first Trump administration to withdraw from the nuclear agreement in 2015 and imposed on Iran the policy of “maximum pressure”. Since his return to the oval office, Trump has again imposed this policy of maximum pressure.

Publishing on xThe American Special Eastern envoy in the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said that “Iran must stop and eliminate the nuclear enrichment program and weapons.” He also called for verification of all spare missiles in the Islamic Republic.

Iranian officials rejected these demands of the US loudly, along with the Minister of Foreign Affairs ABBAS ARAGHCHCH, claiming that the rocket program is not for discussion.

Tehran needs a contract

There is little question that Iran wants a contract, possibly he even needs a contract. It was like that Strinking hard by sanctions Over the past decade, which have hollowed out, the country’s middle class.

Israel’s military strikes towards Iran and his allies over the past 12 months have been eroded the ideological and military strength of the Islamic Republic and a wider “axis of resistance”. With the weakening of many allies, Iran missiles are much more necessary as deterrent.

The strong line adopted by the Trump administration leaves little space for the maneuver. He risks much more that in Iran, which are less likely to have interaction diplomatically. But every militant rhetoric from votes in Iran risk pouring fuel in an incendent situation.

At the same time, the Islamic Republic is in the face of a number of serious pressure in the country, for instance, seen in a lady, life, freedom, in addition to an increasing number of loud opposition abroad-especially from self-appointed Prince Reza PahlaviSon of Shah, who was removed in 1979.

Although Iran may need a contract, he may not give up – especially after the events of last 12 months. And it shouldn’t.

We weigh her strategy

Jastrzębie in the USA, Israel and other countries, of course, heralded the position of Trump’s administration. The fears of the Iranian nuclear program are still guided by the actions of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and others – although there have been reports that Israeli strikes for the purposes of Iran were proposed Methed by Trump in favor of greater negotiations.

While the Persian Gulf countries would someday have fun a difficult position towards Iran, the situation is now different. Iran’s long -time rival, Saudi Arabia, put away his many years in the hope of a more prosperous future.

In agreement in 2023, through China, Saudi Arabia and Iran He agreed to normalize relationsOpening the embassies and starting a series of coordinated military exercises. For Saudi Arabia, especially his crown prince and de facto ruler of Mohammed Bin Salman, regional stability is mandatory in the implementation of the ambitious VISION2030 – who bends strongly in the global trust of investors.

As a result, the kingdom has taken a practical change in regional matters, setting out The process of diplomatic rapprochement This surprised many observers. Riyad also took steps towards normalization with Israel, although the ongoing destruction of the gauze Such movements stoppedAt least for now.

At the same time in which nuclear negotiations happen, Israeli attacks goals in Syria To proceed. The fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024-and the rear place took her a few years of supporter, Russia-Russia modified the political landscape of Syria.

Although his former president, Bashar al-Assad, has A shelter was found in RussiaMoscow undertook a temporary observer, willingly not antagonize the recent Syria regime and threatens her strategically necessary military bases on the Mediterranean coast. Members of groups previously favored by the Assad regime, especially the Alawi community, They escaped to the Russian Navy base in Latakia in search of protection.

But hundreds of others were killed amongst the growing violence as the strength of the recent regime, led by Ahmad Al-Shary, attempt to extinguish all the stays of the Assad’s regime-series of events that look incredibly much like what happened in Iraq 20 years ago, when the trial “Reference of this”. He tried to remove all traces of the Saddam Hussein regime from public life.

Fragile regional order

The situation in the entire region is uncertain, and the actions of global powers are still resounding. While Washington is pressure on Tehran and Moscow, in addition to the scope of Chinese influence in the region increases.

Ironically, Trump’s tariffs on China can push Beijing further to the Middle East, attempting to use the available possibilities. His lane and road initiative is positioned by the Middle East strongly in the strategic interests of China. It will probably open a brand new front in the competition between Washington and Beijing.

All the time people from the Middle East still pay the hardest price. Ongoing wars and uncertainty, fears of regional conflict and unsure political conditions – in addition to rising food prices and pressure on health care – they create a perfect storm that increases pressure and challenges related to on a regular basis life.

What a difference that the dictator makes. Some world leaders pass at their oval office meetings with Donald Trump-Okinny, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom the US president and his entourage publicly discredited at their notorious meeting at the end of February. But not Salvador Nayib Bukele, a self-proclaimed “coolest dictator of the world”-an autocrat whose imprisonment of the country is the highest in the world-from which Trump exchanged a few friendly jokes about authoritarian leadership this week.

“They say that thousands were imprisoned. I say we’ve liberated millions,” said Bukele about his prison writing without the right trial, adding: “To free so many, you must imprison her.”

“Who gave him this line? Do you think I could use it?” He answered Trump to the general.

Bukele was obliged to Trump, imprisonment of tons of of Venezuelan and Salvadors migrants deported with the USA on charges of being members of criminal gangs – none of which had a day in court. One one who is especially interesting by journalists was Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man from Maryland deported because of the “administrative error”. The United States Supreme Court ordered Trump’s administration to do the whole lot in his power to “facilitate” returning to his wife and family in the USA.

“Of course, I’m not going to do it,” said Bukele, asked if he would send Abry Garci back to the USA, adding that it could be “sending the terrorist back to the United States.” He smiles from US officials. This apparently makes it a matter of foreign policy, not the failure of American justice – or, most significantly, an upcoming constitutional crisis in reference to the lack of Trump’s administration compliance with the Supreme Court’s decision.

Bukele knows something about the celebration of constitutional law, writes Amalend Misra, a professor of international policy at the Lancaster University, who to be able to talk in Latin America wrote extensively about Latin America. The President of Salvadoran serves the second term, despite the structure of his country, which previously limits the president from the service of two subsequent conditions.

Critics say that Bukele used its overwhelming majority to interchange five members of the Supreme Court in Salvador to acquire the desired decision – which could also raise him in the estimation of the US president.

Misra is charged by the increase in Bukele power and its achievements, which include the transformation of Salvador from the capital of the murder of the world into one of the lowest murder rates in the Western hemisphere. But not without significant violations of human rights and civil liberties – something that, as now we have seen, bukele is just not the owner.

Meanwhile, constitutional scholars are separating the decision of the US Supreme Court in the case of Abry Garcia, who’s currently sitting at the well -known Salvador Terrorism Center (Cecot).

What exactly did the court mean when he instructed Trump’s administration to “facilitate” returning to the USA? The US prosecutor general, Pam Bondi, offered its interpretation on Wednesday-saying that the decision was completely in line with the bukele, and that if he desires to send ABRE Garci back, “we would give him a plane.”

Trump’s relations with American constitutional law are already under a number of evaluation, because he and his higher officials have began joint efforts to take a break from court rulings, that are geared toward reversing or delaying some of his policy.

“Trump’s approach seems to be testing the limits of law,” writes Stephen Clear, an authority on constitutional law at the Bangor University. Clear believes that Trump’s second term goes further, faster than his first in exerting pressure on the control system and balances, on which the US structure depends.

A transparent take a look at the Trump’s strategy consisting in the use of executive orders to determine a policy – in its first 85 days there have been 124 (executive orders don’t require confirmation of the Congress). Federal courts at the moment are examining many of these orders which were questioned as a result of unconstitutionality. The United States Supreme Court is already in the face of an unprecedented number of emergency applications and it seems when judges resolve – and, most significantly, how administration reacts to the decisions of the Supreme Court.

A federal court judge, whose decision on the deportation of 100 migrants to El Salvador was apparently disregarded by the Trump administration, published the opinion that the lack of application is a “probable cause” of maintaining administration members in criminal contempt.

The judge of the US District Court James Boasberg wrote that the judicial order “should be followed – no matter how wrong it may be – until the court reverses it.” The legal status of the American Cassandra Burke Robertson answers our questions on this matter.

Ultimately, the most reliable test of Trump and the Republican party remains to be on the voting card. Interansual selections, the first real test of the approval by Trump 2.0 USA, are in over 18 months. But how does Trump’s second administration fall with the Americans?

It depends who you ask, writes Paul Whiteley of the University of Essex. Whiteley, an authority in public opinion, was occupied with whether the recent shocks created by the Trump’s tariff plan influenced the way the US audience perceives its results.

The obligated Republicans still attribute to Trump that he knows what he’s doing, while Democrats, as you’ll be able to expect, remain principally against administration. And the same, generally speaking, for his or her appropriate views on coping with trade policy. But a great change, as Whiteley notes, is amongst people identifying as independent, wherein the assessment of Trump’s approval has dropped significantly, especially compared with tariffs.

This is critical, says Whiteley, because independent at the moment are the largest election group in the USA. He sums up: “If this change will persist and independent voters support Democrats candidates in the middle of the period in 2026, it means that Democrats will probably take control of Congress.”

A story about two peace conversations

Another promise of Trump’s campaign is increasing: his commitment to finish the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours”. The US President now insists that he could be “sarcastic” when he made this claim – but after almost three months Trump’s efforts to finish the war “they fight to leave the starting blocks,” writes Jennifer Mathers of Aberrystwh University.

Despite the undeniable fact that Zelensky unconditionally accepted the initial proposal of a 30-day suspension of the USA and support of the US to be able to establish a limited suspension of weapons-reaching for energy infrastructure and in the ocean-Russia doubled its attacks. Recent strikes in Palm Sunday, which killed no less than 35 civilians in the borders of the sums, seemed particularly unjustified, considering that each side should speak about peace.

Mathers writes that Vladimir Putin deliberately does the whole lot in his power to tug his feet because of negotiations, while maintaining Russia’s original demands on the huge swaths of Ukrainian territory, guarantees that Kiev will abandon his plan to hitch NATO and selections that can happen in Ukraine. You would should imagine that Moscow will pull out all stops to make sure that that the winner is more likely than Zelensky.

One of the foremost problems, as Mathers sees, is that various American diplomats repeat Putin’s demands, giving them an ID. It is clear that these demands don’t find the favor of Kiev, because they constitute practically full Ukrainian give up.

The second great diplomatic gambit with the participation of the White House of Trump is in Oman this weekend, when representatives of the USA and Iran meet to debate the possibility of a latest agreement on the Iran nuclear program. The initial characters aren’t good. Trump threatened the tragic consequences, unless Iran is prepared to offer up nuclear ambitions. Iran refuses to calculate this concept.

But there are signs that there could also be some progress behind the scenes. Iran leaders are under high national pressure to acquire sanctions when its economy remains to be leading. And it was reported that Trump refused to approve American-Israeli joint strikes for Iranian nuclear facilities.

Simon Mabon from Lancaster University – a safety specialist in the Middle East, and particularly the relationships between Saudi Arabia and Iran – investigates, which suggests conversations for the broader Middle East stability. He believes that the results of conversations are particularly fastidiously observed by China, which have their very own ambitions for the region.

Indian democracy

Last 12 months, the elections in India were the biggest democratic exercise that the world has ever seen, covering over 642 million people, casting their votes in seven phases on this vast country. In fact, these were the largest elections in India, exceeding the first elections in 1951–52 after the country reached independence from Great Britain.

Tripurdaman Singh, a member of the University of London’s School of Advanced Study, tracked the progress of democracy in India from what he describes as “a moment of such stunning idealism and enthusiasm, a jump of faith so bold that the famous lawyer and scholar Kenneth Instant “.

Singh looks intimately to this experiment in democracy, examining the structure of an ordered country and the way of interpretation. He discovers that this “idealism” was more aspiration than reality, and the authorities have at all times been strongly kept by the director. But, he writes, the very variety of the electorate has – no less than no less than – it successfully prevented the tyrannical impulses of India leaders. At least to date.