Lebanon parliament He selected a new president On January 9, after a two -year political impasse and 13 attempts. Joseph Aun reached the victory threshold in the second round of voting after his rival, a candidate supported by Hezbollah named Suleiman French, withdrew from the race.
In his inaugural speech to the Parliament, President Aoun outlined a series of obligations to cope with overlapping crises that led Lebanon to the fall point. However, the implementation of these guarantees can be extremely difficult.
The presidential victory AUN is amazing. He didn’t publicly conduct a work campaign and none of the political parties sponsored him as a favored presidential candidate. So how did Aouna appear to win the presidency?
AUN, as an alternative of a established descendant of the political class commander of the Lebanese army From 2017. Lebanon Army, Lebanese armed forces (LAF) is a rare example of an establishment that is widely seen as a uniting symbol in Lebanon.
Aun effectively stopped the army from caught up with a recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, despite death Over 40 LAF soldiersAnd he played a decisive role in the supervision of a 60-day weapon suspension agreement, in which in November and France in November.
The essential supporters of the Presidential offer of AUN were a loose network of regional and international players, including USA, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. All these states perceive AUN as the best hope for maintaining a fragile suspension of weapons, while supervising the restoration of the domestic government of Lebanon.
They used their lever, providing economic assistance to addiction to Lebanon at the essential political fractions selecting AUN.
Str / EPA
The selection of AUN provides further evidence weakening Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon. In recent years, Hezbollah has suffered several political and economic reversal.
In the universal elections in 2022, Hezbollah and his allies lost the parliamentary majority. And then, in 2024, it appears that evidently Israel weakened the hezbollah military machine, including killing his leader Hassan Nasrallah And a few seniors.
The recent overthrow of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria deprived Hezbollah of a powerful ally, while the essential supporter of the group, Iran, is unable to maintain the level of financing. Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah has decreased significantly International sanctions Managed by the US to prevent the regime in Tehran, developing nuclear weapons.
Former president of Lebanon, Michel Aun (Not related to Josephem Aun) He was a longtime ally of Hezbollah. The group hoped that they’d install one other ally at the Presidential Palace, supporting the candidacy of French. But French He withdrew from the race And next to many other legislators, he announced his support for AOUN.
In his first speech as a president Aun said: “My mandate will emphasize the state of the state to monopolize weapons.” Although Aun didn’t call Hezbollah, his words were comprehensible that he would try to disarm the group. Hezbollah parliamentarians succumbed to quietly, and most deputies applauded the AUN statement.
For a good start
Aun accused his presidency of several sublime ambitions. But these ambitions will prove to be difficult to deliver. The power of the presidency has strict restrictions due to its largely symbolic status of figuration.
The president’s position is primarily to serve Lebanon power division system. This system provides representation guarantees in parliament 18 sect communities. To ensure that no group can monopolize political power, the role of the president is reserved for Maronite Christians, while the prime minister must come from the Muslim Sunnic community, and the chamber’s speaker is the Shiite.
President Aun has undertaken to reform the government of the division of power. The evidence from the survey indicates that the Lebanon government has The lowest level of trust In the Middle East. The Lebanese system of division of power is susceptible to dysfunctional political institutions, policy impasse and periodic rounds of fall. Politicians dividing power are known corruption and buying votes.
Aun has a good start. A number of days after the meeting, he convened a parliament to select new prime ministerNawaf Salam, current head of the International Court of Justice. Salam confirmation is a surprise, because, like AUN, it is not seen as a patron of any of the essential political parties in the country.
The incontrovertible fact that the usual trading of horses between the essential pages of the arrangement of the new prime minister of the minister didn’t occur, emphasizes the weakness of Hezbollah, which was unable to get the preferred candidate, Najib Mikati, back into power. In response to the Salam meeting, Accused legislators of Hezbollah Their political opponents attempted to exclude and fragment the country. Salam has a long history calling for reform state and the fight against endemic corruption.
Remko Waal / EPA
Aun and Salam are actually facing many challenges related to the hope that many Lebanese feel their meetings. They may have to create a government to obtain urgency to create political stability and approve the budget. Lebanon is confronted with the tragic economic situation, which the World Bank he identified as Among the “heaviest crisis episodes visible around the world since the mid -nineteenth century.”
Another urgent priority is the supervision of the current extension Weapon suspension agreement with Israelwhich ends on January 25. The current agreement requires the Israeli army to withdraw from the side of the border.
With the support of the army, large parts of the Lebanese population and the powerful international players of AOUN and Salam create evaporation that give realistic hope for a period of everlasting stability and reconstruction. But finding a way to construct a consensus policy in Lebanon is not going to be easy, especially if the new president and prime minister set a course that leads them to confrontation with Hezbollah.
