Over the past year, history circles quickly turned in the Middle East.

For a big time, Iran status as a growing power in the region He was considered a consistent reality in the assessment of the Middle East geopolitics. But the events from October 7, 2023 Hamas to Israel saw the position of Iran in the region significantly erosion. Consequently, the balance of power in the Middle East has been irreversibly modified.

The key pillar supporting the previously powerful status of Iran in the Middle East was his cultivation of the “resistance axis“A bunch of Iranian allies in the entire region that acted together against Israel’s and American interests.

Axle members, in addition to Iran himself, are Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi Battle Battle, Houthi and Bashara Al-Assad regime in Syria.

Axis reflection

Israel’s constant war in retaliation for the attack of October 7 saw several of the most vital members The axes have seriously decreased if not fully decimated.

Both Hezbollah and Hamas were humiliated by Destruction of their leadersand their operational abilities have have been significantly reduced.

The biggest blow to Iran’s Proxy Network was probably Last overthrow Assada in Syria, ending with the a long time of the regime considered by the best Iranian strategists as the most vital regional ally in Iran.

The adversarial consequences of those events for the great Iran strategy are generated by questions how significantly weakened Iran will affect the whole world, especially in terms of its influence on the policy of great power in the Middle East.

Undoubtedly, it is a welcome development in the United States, making an allowance for for an extended time hostility towards Iran after 1979 amongst American foreign policy. But China will probably have more refined perspectives based on his commitment Pragmatic maneuvering of foreign policy achieving the highest global goals.

China’s involvement with Iran

Because China has develop into richer and more powerful in recent a long time, they noticed Increasing your diplomatic strength and economic presence around the world. This development was affected by every region of the planet, but the Middle East achieved A spot of special importance For China.

The motivation of the Chinese government to deep involvement in the Middle East is – and remains to be led by A number of key considerations: The Middle East status as the power of oil production, a strategic geographical location connecting the east and west and its status as an extended -term pillar of American foreign policy.

China supported bilateral partnerships throughout the Middle East, But one in every of his longest regional relations was Iran. In Iran, the Chinese authorities saw a rustic that gave him the opportunity to realize China’s principal goals in the region.

After 1979, Iran was by nature anti -AmericanWhich meant that China was more often adopted by Tehran, especially in comparison with other regional powers, similar to Saudi Arabia, which had relatively warm relations with the USA

Perhaps, most significantly, Iran will be relying – to some extent – in order to keep up American interests in the Middle East, making an allowance for its status of growing regional power.

This doesn’t mean that Iran has develop into a Chinese customer state, but slightly that China could provide Iran with diplomatic and economic support, because Iranians used their power to act in a region of great strategic significance for the USA

Future movements of China

Considering the motivations underlying the deep Chinese-Iranian bonds historically, it is obvious that the evaporation of Iran’s strength will probably significantly change the nature of their relationship.

In short, a big a part of Iran’s attractiveness to Chinese decision -makers disappeared with almost the destruction of the regional network. This will probably encourage China to look for deeper ties with other heavy Eastern Middle East, for example Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emiratesachieving your goals in the Middle East – amongst them the principal, Increasing the regional influence at the expense of the USA

But it is usually unlikely that China will completely abandon Iran. Although it may give attention to the most coordinated efforts on the development of deeper connections with other Middle East countries as an alternative of Iran, China would probably fluctuate whether Iran would develop into much more isolated, and subsequently more predisposed to aggressive behavior.

China was one in every of the principal ones Mediators behind the scenes from the Iranian nuclear agreement in 2015, because she wanted regional tensions dispersed by giving up Iran by a nuclear program.

Now that Iran is weakened, he was mainly packed in the corner and has two principal options Going forward: either reaches approaching the West, or enlivens his nuclear program and works more aggressively.

While Iran Ultra-conservative factions that the control of power levers in the country could also be temptation to follow a more aggressive path, it is rather possible that China will likely be An try and use its significant economic lever over Iran to encourage them to implement the examination option.

This is because the Chinese need the Middle East as a source of crude oil to fuel their economy, and since China doesn’t need to be seen by the West as the default partner of a warrior and destabilizing Iran.

China moderating the influence?

On the contrary, China is now Attempt to repair relationships with many Western countries, making an allowance for the importance of Western markets China sick economy.

In fact, China will want to play a job in the inclination of Iran to conclude a contract with the West in the near future, making an allowance for that he’ll show it The upcoming administration of Donald Trump – who’s notoriously hawk in China – you can trust him and work with constructively.

At the end of the day, China will look for a path that minimizes the likelihood of full conflict in the Middle East, making an allowance for the importance of the region for the Chinese economy. The country has a strategic opportunity to signal credibility and reliability in the West, working in order that Iran doesn’t select a more aggressive path.

Lebanon parliament He selected a new president On January 9, after a two -year political impasse and 13 attempts. Joseph Aun reached the victory threshold in the second round of voting after his rival, a candidate supported by Hezbollah named Suleiman French, withdrew from the race.

In his inaugural speech to the Parliament, President Aoun outlined a series of obligations to cope with overlapping crises that led Lebanon to the fall point. However, the implementation of these guarantees can be extremely difficult.

The presidential victory AUN is amazing. He didn’t publicly conduct a work campaign and none of the political parties sponsored him as a favored presidential candidate. So how did Aouna appear to win the presidency?

AUN, as an alternative of a established descendant of the political class commander of the Lebanese army From 2017. Lebanon Army, Lebanese armed forces (LAF) is a rare example of an establishment that is widely seen as a uniting symbol in Lebanon.

Aun effectively stopped the army from caught up with a recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, despite death Over 40 LAF soldiersAnd he played a decisive role in the supervision of a 60-day weapon suspension agreement, in which in November and France in November.

The essential supporters of the Presidential offer of AUN were a loose network of regional and international players, including USA, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. All these states perceive AUN as the best hope for maintaining a fragile suspension of weapons, while supervising the restoration of the domestic government of Lebanon.

They used their lever, providing economic assistance to addiction to Lebanon at the essential political fractions selecting AUN.

The selection of AUN provides further evidence weakening Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon. In recent years, Hezbollah has suffered several political and economic reversal.

In the universal elections in 2022, Hezbollah and his allies lost the parliamentary majority. And then, in 2024, it appears that evidently Israel weakened the hezbollah military machine, including killing his leader Hassan Nasrallah And a few seniors.

The recent overthrow of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria deprived Hezbollah of a powerful ally, while the essential supporter of the group, Iran, is unable to maintain the level of financing. Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah has decreased significantly International sanctions Managed by the US to prevent the regime in Tehran, developing nuclear weapons.

Former president of Lebanon, Michel Aun (Not related to Josephem Aun) He was a longtime ally of Hezbollah. The group hoped that they’d install one other ally at the Presidential Palace, supporting the candidacy of French. But French He withdrew from the race And next to many other legislators, he announced his support for AOUN.

In his first speech as a president Aun said: “My mandate will emphasize the state of the state to monopolize weapons.” Although Aun didn’t call Hezbollah, his words were comprehensible that he would try to disarm the group. Hezbollah parliamentarians succumbed to quietly, and most deputies applauded the AUN statement.

For a good start

Aun accused his presidency of several sublime ambitions. But these ambitions will prove to be difficult to deliver. The power of the presidency has strict restrictions due to its largely symbolic status of figuration.

The president’s position is primarily to serve Lebanon power division system. This system provides representation guarantees in parliament 18 sect communities. To ensure that no group can monopolize political power, the role of the president is reserved for Maronite Christians, while the prime minister must come from the Muslim Sunnic community, and the chamber’s speaker is the Shiite.

President Aun has undertaken to reform the government of the division of power. The evidence from the survey indicates that the Lebanon government has The lowest level of trust In the Middle East. The Lebanese system of division of power is susceptible to dysfunctional political institutions, policy impasse and periodic rounds of fall. Politicians dividing power are known corruption and buying votes.

Aun has a good start. A number of days after the meeting, he convened a parliament to select new prime ministerNawaf Salam, current head of the International Court of Justice. Salam confirmation is a surprise, because, like AUN, it is not seen as a patron of any of the essential political parties in the country.

The incontrovertible fact that the usual trading of horses between the essential pages of the arrangement of the new prime minister of the minister didn’t occur, emphasizes the weakness of Hezbollah, which was unable to get the preferred candidate, Najib Mikati, back into power. In response to the Salam meeting, Accused legislators of Hezbollah Their political opponents attempted to exclude and fragment the country. Salam has a long history calling for reform state and the fight against endemic corruption.

Aun and Salam are actually facing many challenges related to the hope that many Lebanese feel their meetings. They may have to create a government to obtain urgency to create political stability and approve the budget. Lebanon is confronted with the tragic economic situation, which the World Bank he identified as Among the “heaviest crisis episodes visible around the world since the mid -nineteenth century.”

Another urgent priority is the supervision of the current extension Weapon suspension agreement with Israelwhich ends on January 25. The current agreement requires the Israeli army to withdraw from the side of the border.

With the support of the army, large parts of the Lebanese population and the powerful international players of AOUN and Salam create evaporation that give realistic hope for a period of everlasting stability and reconstruction. But finding a way to construct a consensus policy in Lebanon is not going to be easy, especially if the new president and prime minister set a course that leads them to confrontation with Hezbollah.

Similarly Iraq at the starting of 2003dominant images coming out of Syria at the end of 2024 were Joyful crowds of overthrowing the statues of thrown dictators . In just about all movies, stone or metal sculptures raises a cloud of dust when it decreases, blurring the view of the stage for a few moments.

After the fall of 61 years of the dictatorship of the Ba’ath party and 53 years of the Al-Azad dynasty in Damascus, our view on the geopolitical LansCape in Syria and the Middle East is similarly obscured. We are still in the process of a cloud raised by the fall of the regime, attempting to take a have a look at what it’s going to seem like when the dust falls.

However, there are some things that we are able to safely suppose. One of them is that Syria in 2024 may be for Turkey, which Iraq was for Iran in 2003. When the US attacked Iraq in 2003 and overthrew the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein and Iraqis Ba’ath, it also unknowingly got rid of the buffer state, so for many years he maintained the regional ambitions of Iran.

In 2003, the starting of the Tehran march towards hegemony in the Middle East, and the outbreak of Arab spring in 2011 accelerated this process. The regional power of Iran has increased in tandem with destabilization in various other countries, to the extent that it will definitely established each direct and indirect presence (through Iran financed by Iran, trained and armed combat) in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Yemen and Iraq .

So -called Resistance axis He was nothing greater than an alliance of factions supported by Iran in these countries. The first touch stone of this initial hegemony was the land corridor for the Mediterranean Sea: Iran-Iraq-Syria -lebanon. The second was the ability to threaten the two most strategic straits in the region: Hormuz and Bab El-Manddeb (the latter by Yemeni Houthi Rebel).

When Iran reached the height of his power

In the years 2013–2017 Iran reached the zenith of his power in the Middle East. In particular Signing of the Nuclear Agreement 2015 He granted him international strength and put an end to the sanctions that mutilated his economy.

In this expansive phase, Iran tried to push the US out of the region and force countries equivalent to Saudi Arabia and the monarchy of the Persian Gulf to take care of a low profile and behave of Tehran’s interests. He also built a network to defeat Israel in the war for abrasion.

Three leaders embodiment this successful strategy of Iranian regional domination: Qasem soleimanicreator of the resistance axis; Mohsen Fakhrizadehfather of the renovated nuclear program; AND AmmiResponsible for the development of the rocket and drone program.

However, the high pressure campaign initiated by Donald Trump during his first term at the office meant the starting of the fall of Iran. Soleimani was murdered in January 2020, and Fakhrizadadeh in November 2020. The signing of Abraham’s agreements, organized by Trump in September 2020, also accelerated the fall of the power of the Islamic Republic in the region.

The destruction of Gaza, the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and recently the fall of Al-Assad in Syria was the last nails in the casket of strategic and hegemonic aspirations of Iran.

Türkiye settles earlier results

Geopolitics stops a vacuum of power. The loss of one country is the profit of the other, and the space left by Iran is currently occupied by Turkey. This mustn’t be surprising: the history of the Middle East between the sixteenth and 18th centuries was the history of struggle between the Ottoman and Persian empires and it appears that evidently in the twenty first century.

Syria Al-Assad and the Ba’ath party acted as a buffer state in Turkey Tayyip Erdoğan, which, like Russia Putin, desires to resolve the results with the past. In the case of Putin, this is the fall of the Soviet Union 30 years ago, for Erdoğan it is the fall of the Ottoman Empire 100 years ago.

It is not that Russia or Türkiye are attempting to regain direct rule over all previous territories of their imperial past, but try to determine an area of ​​influence on these territories. It could be based on a military occupation or occasional annexation of some border regions (in the case of Turkey, North Iraq and Syria). It also means establishing friendly governments in neighboring countries and creating a network of clients with military and economic assistance.

Ankara needs to be careful in coping with triumph in Syria. Erdoğan and other members of his party will feel improved by the fall of Assad, because along with Qatar they were the only Muslim countries in the Middle East, which maintained strong opposition to the Assad regime. Even lately, when Assad looked as if it would survive the civil war, and the Idlib rebel factions seemed an increasing number of weak, Türkiye and Qatar maintained support for resistance.

It is sensible that Ankara is celebrating a quick and unexpected triumph of December. However, Erdoğan also needs to have a look at Pakistan. A number of years ago, the Pakistan state security apparatus also celebrated the sudden and unexpected Taliban triumph after twenty years on the ropes, and it was clear that without the support of Islamabad Taliban victory in Kabul wouldn’t be possible. However, since the power of power, friction has increased between Taliban and Pakistan In recent weeks.

Although it may be expected that Syrian rebels will maintain permits to Ankara, we are able to expect differences and misunderstandings in the future. To save the country from bankruptcy and misery, Damascus needs far more than simply what Türkiye or Qatar can offer.

In the pursuit of regional hegemony, Turkey will face not only Iran, but also Saudi Arabia, the third predominant player in the Middle East, who strives to shape the region in keeping with his interests. The result of various conflicts that currently kidnap the region could have a big impact on how well these three countries can learn to coexist.