. The fall of the dictatorship of Bashar Assad In December 2024, he initiated the nervous time of hope and fear of Syrians about future management within the long war.
Although it is not clear what exact political path Syria will likely be, the dilemmas facing the country are just like the experiences of other Arab countries over ten years ago. In the winter of 2010, the outbreak of protests in Tunisia spread throughout the region, overthrowing several regimes In what became referred to as the Arabian Uprising.
While some countries – Egypt and Tunisia – have turn out to be a democracy, although briefly, others, resembling Yemen, Libya and Syria, descended into violence.
In the tip of the years, scientists of political sciences from world wide examined these political changes, taking a look at why so many Arab countries The democratic reform path couldn’t be continued. As a political scientist with specialist knowledge within the regionI distilled it’s research In five key lessons that would now assist in Syria, because he tries to construct a stable and democratic state.
1. Islamist politicians are the primary politicians, and secondly Islamists
One of probably the most smoking questions, given the political direction of Syria after Assad, is the role of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, a group of rebels, which led to the overthrow of Assad.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a former a part of Al-Qaeda who has been withdrawn from the extremist ideology since then There are worries that this moderation is temporary. While some observers might imagine so All Islamist groups need to rigidly implement a narrow interpretation of Islamic law Like the Taliban in Afghanistan, Studies show a much wider range of possibilities For politicians implemented by Islamist groups implemented throughout the office.
For example, the Tunisian Islamist group Ennahda She defended democracy a lot And he helped Write a liberal structure After the country was removed by Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. Similarly, in Egypt, after removing the leader of the Hosni Mubarak engine in the identical 12 months, the Muslim Brotherhood, once a spare Islamic movement, competed successfully and honesty within the democratic processHowever, after all, he put up the identical challenges of every ruling side within the implementation of the principles in power.
AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti
But such a path is not predetermined. A recent democratic distance and hug of authoritarianism shows that Islamist politicians resembling President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Undermine democracy when it serves their interests.
Political research has appeared repeatedly that Islamist politicians are like politicians world wide: after they should win elections, they will contribute to the fears of voters. According to data from regional research, most Arabs Express the preference for religious leaders who’re apolitical.
If Syria becomes a democracy, I believe Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham will probably still should take moderation. But whether the group supports democracy is dependent upon the calculation of the organization of what its future looks like in democracy in comparison with more authoritarian types of management. Wide negotiations covering all pages in Syria might help persuade Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham that continuing the trail of moderation is of their best interest. Although nobody can forecast what latest Syria institutions will seem like, research shows that Islamists are as likely as secular parties support democratic norms.
2. The end of corruption is vital
One of Drivers of Arab Spring And the Syrian revolution was anger at corrupt business agreements. Indeed, the relatives and buddies of Assad in truth a monopole over lucrative industries resembling Mobile phone networks. Relaxing these corrupt courtyards and opening industries to competition and license needs to be a superior priority for people searching for a less autocratic future.
In Tunisia, The established corporations fought with anti -corruption reforms Because they said it will hurt investments and growth. But the rationale why economic growth is so weak in lots of parts of the Middle East is Precisely due to these rooted corporations.
The diaspora in Syria has many talented businessmen who can return and find revolutionary corporations if the brand new government opens investments and entrepreneurship outside individuals with political connections.
3. The political dispute is high-quality
Many hopes that the brand new Syria government will likely be free and quite elected. In order for democracy to work, it must effectively make changes Response to voters’ fears.
Initially, Syria can have to Decide on basic principles resembling a structure that may cover many alternative groups. This wide coalition may be easier to attain compromises Due to the joint experience of the opposition as a part of the previous dictatorship. However, an attempt to keep up this unity can mask Important political debates that must occur.
In order for voters to see the change, electoral competition must bring a actual change in politics. The best coalitions of events in Tunisia He promoted unity as an alternative of fighting difficult decisions This resonated with on a regular basis fears of individuals. In time, the voters stopped Identifying the parties and lost confidence within the elections. The elected President of Tunisia, Kais Saed, took advantage of this apathy to shut the parliament of the country – an motion that was Essentially popular Despite the lack of democracy.
A practical response to this concern is to construct strong parties, the explanations that pro-democratic organizations resembling National Democratic Institute are superb in. Effective pages help voters Preparation of a package of rules that may go through parliament and constructing a coalition.
While the opposition of Syria has extensive experience in waging war, it has relatively little on the road to campaigns and constructing Strong party brands. These more mundane goals are a key connective tissue that makes democracy work.
AP Photo/Hassene Didi
4. Bureaucrats should serve society
Elections are chosen by leaders, but durable, popular changes also require bureaucrats who implement latest policies – so -called “Horizontal responsibility. “The Democratic Egyptian government after 2011 left many state institutions intact, and later with rebel Autonomous anti -democratic agencies. Meanwhile, in Sudan, through which a short breakthrough of liberalization after the overthrow of his longtime dictator, Omar Al-Bashira, in 2019 This was still disillusioned since the bureaucrats lobbyed politicians for support.
Without the cooperation of bureaucrats, basic state services fall, which results in such phenomena Criminal waves and lack of trust in democracy.
The government led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham in Syria has already begun reform of bureaucracy by racing high officials from the previous regime, maintaining rank and files. However, effective supervision requires participation of chosen leaders with an ID card requiring responsibility from bureaucrats. For those that need to be involved within the transition of Syria, providing technical support in the fast reconstruction of ministries is one in every of the ways to extend the probabilities of a successful transition.
5. Hold the military close
If the brand new government of Syria falls, history suggests that the military will likely be the almost definitely wrongdoer. The Egyptian army undermined the democratic passage of the country through secretly supporting the anti -Islamistic opposition. The Sudan army agreed to the protesting demands of latest leadership, but De facto providing control over vital government institutions.
Recent studies show that keeping the military on top of things means Giving her part in democracy by financing the items needed, resembling salaries and equipment. However, it is equally vital Establishment of civil control over the military, ordering a military report back to chosen leaders about its budgets, politicians and deployments. Military assistance is mandatory, but it surely still have to be related to strict obligations to civil control.
The future is Syria
Political crossings are too complex to set off on easy forecasts. But the experience of countries that recorded the expansion and reduce in democracy in Arab spring, and later winter might help latest Syria leaders avoid expensive political mistakes.
Ultimately, nevertheless, the fate of the country rests with its own people. They survived the Assad regime – and who will make a very powerful decisions for the longer term of Syria.
