Syrians have been for over a decade The world’s largest refugee population.

Has over 6 million Syrians I ran away from the country Since 2011, when the Bashara Assad’s regime was created right into a 13-yr civil war. Most resulted in neighboring countries, corresponding to Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt, while there was a big minority in Europe. But the overthrow of the Assad regime at the end of 2024 by opposition forces under the leadership of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham apparently opened the window to their return and Tens of 1000’s of former refugees Since then, they decided to return to their homeland.

How many and who determine to return, and the circumstances during which they’re repeated with Syrian society will have huge consequences for each Syria and the countries during which they resettled. Scholars of migration like us To higher understand what will occur when refugees finally return home.

Previous studies have shown that Syrian refugees who are attempting to determine whether to come back are motivated More by conditions in Syria than on the basis of political decisions during which they moved. But individual experiences also play an vital role. Necessary, refugees who were exposed to violence during the civil war in Syria are in actual fact more tolerant and higher assess the risk of returning to Syria, Studies have been demonstrated.

But such tests were conducted, while Assad was still in power and only a number of weeks have passed since the fall of Assad. As a result, it is not clear how many Syrians will determine to come back. After all, the current government is temporary and the country not fully unified.

Risk of return

A month after Assad’s fall, about 125,000 Syrians faced Home, mainly from Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. But for most of them which have still returned, vital questions and considerations remain.

First of all, what will management under transitional rule appear like? To date, the rule of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham under the rule of Ahmed Al-Sharaa suggested that the group would accept the inclusion towards the various range of ethnic and non secular minorities in Syria. Still, some Observers are anxious About the earlier connections of the group with warming Islamist groups, including Al-Qaida.

Similarly, initial fears Restrictions on women’s participation in public life they were mostly satisfied, despite the transitional government appointment only two Women to the office.

Syrians debating whether to return home, in addition they have to face the economic devastation caused over the years of war, improper management of government and corruption and international sanctions placed on the Assad regime.

Sanctions blocking the entry of drugs and equipment, together with the bombing of infrastructure by Assad during the war, it was mutilated country medical system.

In 2024, 16.7 million Syrians – greater than half of the country’s population – was in need Necessary humanitarian aid, even when it was not much available. At the starting of 2025, the USA He announced that he was expanding Partial, six -month sanctions relief to enable humanitarian groups to provide basic services corresponding to water, sanitary and electricity.

But the reconstruction of the country’s infrastructure will last for much longer, and Syrian refugees will have to weigh whether or not they are higher to stay of their receiving countries. This is very true for those that worked on constructing a brand new life for an extended time in exile from Syria.

The Syrian government will even have to solve the problem Return of the property. Many people might want to go home only when it really have a house return to. And the policy of forced real estate transfers and settlements by Alawite and minority groups allied with the Assad regime in former Sunni areas released during the war, they complicate this problem.

Still welcoming in Europe?

Since the starting of the civil war, about 1.3 million Syrians were looking for protection in Europe, most of them arrived in 2015 and 2016 and settled in countries corresponding to Germany and Sweden. From December 2023, 780,000 people He continued to maintain the refugee status and the protection of the subsidiary-the addition form of international protection-the part that received long-term stays or citizenship.

Dependent protection has been granted to individuals who do not meet the rigorous requirements regarding the status of refugee on the basis of Geneva conventions -who requires an affordable fear of persecution based on breed, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group-but “”He would meet with an actual risk of suffering serious damage“If they return to their countries of origin.

Syrian recognition indicators remained consistently high in 2015-2023, but malfunction Between the protection of the subsidiary and the status of the refugee will change over the years, with 81% received refugee status in 2015 compared to 68% protection of a subsidiary in 2023.

In the case of Syrians in the EU, who’ve refugee status or protection of a subsidiary, in addition to for individuals with ongoing asylum claims, the future could be very uncertain. According to the Geneva Conventions, EU law allows governments Return, finish or refuse to renew Their status, if the reason to offer protection, determine what, according to many countries, takes place after the fall of Assad.

From that point no less than 12 European countries Asylum applications of Syria residents suspended. Some nations, corresponding to Austria, threatened to implement the “orderly return and deportation” program.

Conditions in Turkey and Lebanon

A much larger number of Syrians have been protected in neighboring countriesNamely Türkiye (2.9 million), Lebanon (755,000) and Jordan (611,000), although the estimates of unregistered Syrians are much higher. In Turkey, which hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees, Syrians only assurance Temporary protection status.

Theoretically, this status enables them to access work, healthcare and education. But in practice, Syrian refugees in Turkey were not all the time able to enjoy these laws. In combination with anti -migrant moods deteriorated by the earthquake in 2023. AND Presidential electionsLife remained difficult for many.

And while the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly found that Syrians should return home according to their very own time axis, his Previous scape goat refugee population indicates that he may ultimately want to return them – especially like Many in Turkey Now imagine that Syrian refugees haven’t any reason to stay in the country.

Syrians in Lebanon, during which guests of the largest number of Syrian refugees per capita, face even greater economic and legal challenges. The country is not a signatory to the Geneva Convention and its rigorous national asylum law granted a stay only 17% from over 1,000,000 Syrians living in the country.

Lebanon presses on Syrian refugees to leave the country for years Principles of marginalization and compelled deportationwhich have intensified in recent months with the Syrian’s government deportation program not registered in the UN. From 2023, 84% of Syrian families lived in extreme poverty. Their susceptibility to the susceptibility was tightened by the recent conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon. 425,000 Syrians to escape the war Return to Syria again, despite the incontrovertible fact that the conditions were not secure at the moment.

Water testing

Offering visits and seeing-during which one member of the family can return to the native country to assess the situation, after which allow re-entering the host country without losing legal status is the norm In many situations for refugees. Politics is currently used for Ukrainians in Europe and has been utilized in the past for refugees from Bosnian and South.

The same policy can now serve Syrian refugees – in actual fact, Turkey He recently implemented such a plan. But above all, we expect that returning to Syria should be voluntary, not forced. Obtaining conditions for the return of refugees will have huge consequences for the reconstruction of the country and maintaining peace – or not – in the coming years.

New York representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican, testified before the Senate of the Commission of Foreign Relations on January 16, 2025, as a part of her Confirmation process to change into the next US ambassador to the organization of the United Nations.

International diplomacy is the essence of the UN as a former UN official and academic Whoever published broadly on the UN, I do know that diplomacy is an art, not a science.

And a superb ambassador could make an actual difference.

Direct line from the UN to the President

The countries create and maintain in the UN, they’re essential to assist in confrontation with global crises exceeding the range and strength of each nation.

All 193 governments that make up the UN have ambassadors who negotiate various UN contracts in matters, from terrorism to terrorism nuclear proliferation.

Of all these ambassadors, the American envoy is a very loud and unique work. First of all, the US is a rustic hosting the UN headquarters. The USA can be UN The largest financial co -creator.

Some US ambassadors were skilled diplomats like Linda Thomas-GreenfieldThe current ambassador who was appointed by President Joe Biden in February 2021.

Other former US ambassadors in UN have origin in other areas, In this academyIN journalism AND American policy.

The US ambassador could also be a part of the president’s office and report directly to the president or may not have the rank of a office and as a substitute report to the Secretary of State. Nikki Haleywho was the UN ambassador during the first Trump administration, he had the status of the office, like Stefanik, assuming that she was confirmed.

Having the president’s ear strengthens the influence of the ambassador on the UN

The most vital works of the ambassador

The US Ambassador is an efficient international lawyer of the government’s interests, or in reducing the lack of food safety and prevention of hunger in other countries or an attempt to stop North Korea before Firing ballistic missiles.

The ambassador explains the special positions of the US government towards ambassadors and representatives of other countries in the UN

The US ambassador also listens to foreign representatives about their political positions. The ambassador then acts as a bridge between the UN in New York and the US government in Washington, for instance, moving in difficult conversations about human rights and terrorism.

The third, day by day role of the ambassador is to supervise the 150 of the Department of State and other employees in US mission to the UNThe constructing on the other side of the street from the headquarters of the UN at First Avenue in Manhattan.

Employees of the American mission do all the things from negotiating the resolution of the Security Council to advise the ambassador and other best offices in media relations.

The US ambassador can be heavily involved in the alternative of the UN Secretary General, who conducts organization in his diverse political and humanitarian work over five years.

Countries can nominate individual candidates to act as secretary general. But each candidate must give you the option to gain the support of the United States and other everlasting members of the Security Council who’ve the right to seal and reject the potential UN leader.

The countries will then vote for the appointment of the recent secretary general in 2026.

UN Security Council

A big a part of the US Ambassador’s work takes place in Security CouncilThe key a part of the UN, whose task is to maintain international peace and security. Since the establishment of the UN in 1945, the Security Council was almost exclusively crisis and emergency.

The Council has more power than probably some other UN branch, because its recommendations and decisions, called resolutions, are considered binding in accordance with international law. . The council voted on sanctions -who may appear like travel bans or freezing international assets-a lot of individuals, countries equivalent to Iran and Somalia, and terrorist groups equivalent to al-Qaida. He can be entitled to authorize UN peacekeeping operations to distribute in conflict zones.

United States, China, France, Russia and Great Britain are five everlasting members of the Council. While other countries turn around and take part in the work of the Council, only these everlasting members of the Council can veto the resolutions – leading to it Frequent gifts.

In 2024, the United States used Power veto five times Reject the resolutions related to the war between Israel and Hamas.

The US ambassador can assist in the decisions of which the issues discuss, design and provide resolutions and influence other members of the Council.

Real negotiations don’t occur at formal meetings which might be routinely emitted live, but in informal consultation Behind closed doors. At this point, diplomats practice their ingenuity and settle their differences.

A couple of days after the terrorist attacks of September 11 at the World Trade Center and Pentagon, US ambassador John NegroponteThe denominator of the then President George W. Bush negotiated the resolution which called for governments to accept one other counter -terrorist classes.

Six months after confirmation of the US Senate Susan Rice As an ambassador, she led the Security Council in 2009 approval of the resolution, which imposed economic sanctions About North Korea in response to nuclear and rocket tests.

Today, the Security Council deals with various conflicts in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Middle East. The Council also focuses on counteracting terrorism, energy, climate, natural resources and other problems.

Doing

The UN US ambassador is a public figure who is usually to travel outside the country to justify why the participation and leadership of the United States in the UN.

This is significant because Fr. 40% of Americans In 2023, they said that the US doesn’t use a UN member, and in democracy a successful approach of foreign policy should have social support.

On Sunday, the world received news that it might not have thought possible. The murderous regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not any more, and after 13 years of suffering, the Syrian civil war could also be coming to an end.

In just a couple of days, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – an armed Islamist group based in Idlib in northern Syria – moved south, capturing Aleppo and Homs, after which capturing the capital Damascus. Meanwhile, Assad is reported he fled together with his family to Moscow.

The most optimistic observers see this moment as a probability for peace. Assad has finally been toppled, his key allies Russia and Iran are involved elsewhere, and a fragile peace is emerging between Syria’s various armed factions. Others warn that the resulting vacuum may lead to a continuation of the chaotic violence that has plagued Libya since the overthrow and killing of the country’s dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

What happens next will depend as much on forces outside Syria as on those inside it. I was in Syria in 2013, interviews with fighters and commanders from several groups that got here together to form HTS, including Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. As I learned from talking to them, armed groups like HTS are likely to listen when the international community tries to interact with them.

HTS was formed in 2017 as an alliance of a number of Islamist armed groups in northwestern Syria, including the Syrian affiliate of al-Qaeda often known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. In previous years, HTS was in a difficult situation in the Idlib region. Yet it stubbornly persevered while many other armed groups collapsed under the onslaught of a regime backed by Russian warplanes and Hezbollah fighters.

Syria is at a crossroads with many potential paths ahead. Some point The Islamist roots of HTS. For these people, the nightmare scenario that the world has been trying to stop since 2011 got here true: a radical Islamist group got here to power in Syria.

Others say the group has separated from its more radical roots. As the saying goes, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham divorced Al-Qaeda in 2016 he didn’t wish to be tainted anymore as a consequence of its negative global image and merged with other groups to form HTS.

And HTS has recently sought to advertise a more moderate image, even encouraging religious tolerance. If his assurances are to be believed, it might aim to construct a peaceful and stable Syria.

The key to determining Syria’s future will be the actions of other countries that want to interact HTS and its affiliates. My research shows that sometimes they will make changes in consequence of this dialogue. Groups with a history of violating the laws of war may reply to international pressure and cause changes in their behavior.

They will also sometimes respond positively to involvement by participating in negotiations and conflict resolution. However, when isolated, siled or ignored, these groups can do exactly the opposite.

While in Syria, I spoke to many alternative insurgent factions and the common thread was that they felt ignored by the international community. The general of the Free Syrian Army (then a U.S.-backed coalition of rebel groups) complained about the difficulty of complying with international humanitarian law without international support.

Fighters from Islamist groups complained about the hypocrisy of international organizations. When they tried to contact states and organizations, they felt ignored, forcing them to ally with more hard-line groups as a substitute of moderates. An Islamic State commander even asked me to send positive messages about them to my family and friends, hoping it will encourage more international contacts.

It could be a mistake to wholeheartedly imagine armed groups in their declared willingness to cooperate peacefully. But by the same token, completely ignoring them is unlikely to finish the fighting.

Is peace possible?

Explaining how we got thus far could also be easier than predicting what will occur next. The Assad regime has long been supported by its allies. So, with Russia engaged in a war of attrition in Ukraine and each Hezbollah and Iran fighting conflict with Israel, HTS saw a possibility and seized it.

While many have fun the failure of Iranian and Russian interventions in Syria, it’s unlikely that either power’s influence in Syria will end. Recent developments may even bring the two sides closer to a partnership that would include interventions elsewhere or exchanges of weapons technology.

No country will simply quit its goals in Syria. Russia, for instance, has strategic air and naval bases there which are essential for the Kremlin to project power in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Africa. Russia will not abandon them easily.

Türkiye appears to have been an extended-time supporter of HTS a robust position to influence events. This may include using its advantage in a sustained attack on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.

Although the SDF are nominal allies of America, it’s unlikely that they have forgotten about Donald Trump sudden abandonment of them in 2019. When the US president announced the withdrawal of US military forces from Syria, it created an influence vacuum that Turkey used as a reason to launch a military operation against the Syrian Kurds. The future of Kurdish autonomy may due to this fact be in query, although the battle-hardened SDF will probably not quit and not using a fight.

It is just not yet clear how the Trump administration will cooperate with Syria under HTS control. While it’s unlikely that we will see a rise in American involvement on the ground, it’s difficult to assume that Trump will grow to be an ally of HTS, an armed group with historical ties to Islamists.

Meanwhile, Israel took over temporary control of a demilitarized buffer zone in Syrian-controlled areas of the Golan Heights. Some fear that this may increasingly result in a rise in conflict in the country. The Israeli military has warned Syrians living in five villages near the occupied areas to “stay at home.” Some schools have switched to online classes in anticipation of the unrest.

These events in Syria have enormous consequences for the country and the region, and HTS is at the center of them. It is unclear whether the group will manage to take care of power in Syria, and if so, what type of regime it will try to construct.

The response from regional and global powers will be crucial at this juncture where commitment to HTS is crucial if the opportunity for peace is to be realized.