On Sunday, the world received news that it might not have thought possible. The murderous regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not any more, and after 13 years of suffering, the Syrian civil war could also be coming to an end.

In just a couple of days, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – an armed Islamist group based in Idlib in northern Syria – moved south, capturing Aleppo and Homs, after which capturing the capital Damascus. Meanwhile, Assad is reported he fled together with his family to Moscow.

The most optimistic observers see this moment as a probability for peace. Assad has finally been toppled, his key allies Russia and Iran are involved elsewhere, and a fragile peace is emerging between Syria’s various armed factions. Others warn that the resulting vacuum may lead to a continuation of the chaotic violence that has plagued Libya since the overthrow and killing of the country’s dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

What happens next will depend as much on forces outside Syria as on those inside it. I was in Syria in 2013, interviews with fighters and commanders from several groups that got here together to form HTS, including Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. As I learned from talking to them, armed groups like HTS are likely to listen when the international community tries to interact with them.

HTS was formed in 2017 as an alliance of a number of Islamist armed groups in northwestern Syria, including the Syrian affiliate of al-Qaeda often known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. In previous years, HTS was in a difficult situation in the Idlib region. Yet it stubbornly persevered while many other armed groups collapsed under the onslaught of a regime backed by Russian warplanes and Hezbollah fighters.

Syria is at a crossroads with many potential paths ahead. Some point The Islamist roots of HTS. For these people, the nightmare scenario that the world has been trying to stop since 2011 got here true: a radical Islamist group got here to power in Syria.

Others say the group has separated from its more radical roots. As the saying goes, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham divorced Al-Qaeda in 2016 he didn’t wish to be tainted anymore as a consequence of its negative global image and merged with other groups to form HTS.

And HTS has recently sought to advertise a more moderate image, even encouraging religious tolerance. If his assurances are to be believed, it might aim to construct a peaceful and stable Syria.

The key to determining Syria’s future will be the actions of other countries that want to interact HTS and its affiliates. My research shows that sometimes they will make changes in consequence of this dialogue. Groups with a history of violating the laws of war may reply to international pressure and cause changes in their behavior.

They will also sometimes respond positively to involvement by participating in negotiations and conflict resolution. However, when isolated, siled or ignored, these groups can do exactly the opposite.

While in Syria, I spoke to many alternative insurgent factions and the common thread was that they felt ignored by the international community. The general of the Free Syrian Army (then a U.S.-backed coalition of rebel groups) complained about the difficulty of complying with international humanitarian law without international support.

Fighters from Islamist groups complained about the hypocrisy of international organizations. When they tried to contact states and organizations, they felt ignored, forcing them to ally with more hard-line groups as a substitute of moderates. An Islamic State commander even asked me to send positive messages about them to my family and friends, hoping it will encourage more international contacts.

It could be a mistake to wholeheartedly imagine armed groups in their declared willingness to cooperate peacefully. But by the same token, completely ignoring them is unlikely to finish the fighting.

Is peace possible?

Explaining how we got thus far could also be easier than predicting what will occur next. The Assad regime has long been supported by its allies. So, with Russia engaged in a war of attrition in Ukraine and each Hezbollah and Iran fighting conflict with Israel, HTS saw a possibility and seized it.

While many have fun the failure of Iranian and Russian interventions in Syria, it’s unlikely that either power’s influence in Syria will end. Recent developments may even bring the two sides closer to a partnership that would include interventions elsewhere or exchanges of weapons technology.

No country will simply quit its goals in Syria. Russia, for instance, has strategic air and naval bases there which are essential for the Kremlin to project power in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Africa. Russia will not abandon them easily.

Türkiye appears to have been an extended-time supporter of HTS a robust position to influence events. This may include using its advantage in a sustained attack on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.

Although the SDF are nominal allies of America, it’s unlikely that they have forgotten about Donald Trump sudden abandonment of them in 2019. When the US president announced the withdrawal of US military forces from Syria, it created an influence vacuum that Turkey used as a reason to launch a military operation against the Syrian Kurds. The future of Kurdish autonomy may due to this fact be in query, although the battle-hardened SDF will probably not quit and not using a fight.

It is just not yet clear how the Trump administration will cooperate with Syria under HTS control. While it’s unlikely that we will see a rise in American involvement on the ground, it’s difficult to assume that Trump will grow to be an ally of HTS, an armed group with historical ties to Islamists.

Meanwhile, Israel took over temporary control of a demilitarized buffer zone in Syrian-controlled areas of the Golan Heights. Some fear that this may increasingly result in a rise in conflict in the country. The Israeli military has warned Syrians living in five villages near the occupied areas to “stay at home.” Some schools have switched to online classes in anticipation of the unrest.

These events in Syria have enormous consequences for the country and the region, and HTS is at the center of them. It is unclear whether the group will manage to take care of power in Syria, and if so, what type of regime it will try to construct.

The response from regional and global powers will be crucial at this juncture where commitment to HTS is crucial if the opportunity for peace is to be realized.

Who could have predicted that after almost 14 years of civil war and five years of stalemate, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria would collapse in only a week? With Assad gone, the burning query is what Syria’s immediate future holds.

When opposition fighters led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group captured the most important city of Aleppo in late November with minimal resistance, commentators widely believed it marked the start of the autumn of the Assad regime. Many expected a fierce fight until the very end.

Assad was caught off guard and his forces clearly unprepared. He withdrew remaining troops from Aleppo to regroup and buy time for reinforcements to reach from Russia and Iran, hoping opposition fighters would stop there.

It wasn’t meant to be. Emboldened by their rapid success in Aleppo, HTS fighters wasted no time in advancing on Hama, capturing it with ease. They quickly moved on and took Homs, another large city to the south.

Russia provided limited air support to Assad. However, Iran, having exhausted its forces defending Hezbollah against Israel in Lebanon, was unable to supply significant assistance and withdrew the remaining staff from Syria. Meanwhile, Assad calls frantically support from Iraq he didn’t go anywhere.

Seeing the writing on the wall, the morale of Assad’s forces and leadership has plummeted. Fearing retribution within the event of the regime’s fall, desertions began en masse, further hastening Assad’s fall.

And on the last day Assad escaped country, and its prime minister officially handed over power to HTS and its leadership. This marked the top of 54 years of Assad family rule in Syria.

Assad’s legacy

Most Syrians will likely remember the Assad family, including Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, as brutal dictators.

The modern state of Syria was established in 1920 Sykes-Picot Agreement within the aftermath of the First World War. Syria became a League of Nations mandate under French control, gaining independence only in 1944. After a turbulent period, including failed unification with Egypt, the Baath Party took control in 1963 in a coup d’état led by Hafez al-Assad.

In 1966, Hafez al-Assad became the leader another coup together with other officials of the Alawite minority. This eventually led to the establishment of a civilian regime, and Hafez al-Assad became president in 1970.

Hafez al-Assad became often known as an authoritarian dictator, concentrating power, the military and the economy within the hands of his relatives and the Alawite community. Meanwhile, the Sunni majority has been largely marginalized and excluded from positions of power and influence.

Hafez al-Assad is most infamous for his brutal suppression of the opposition in 1982. As a result of the rebellion led by the Islamic Front, the opposition captured the town of Hama. In response, the Syrian army razed the town, leaving an estimated 10,000 to 40,000 civilians dead or missing, ultimately suppressing the revolt.

Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, and his younger son, Bashar al-Assad, the least likely candidate, took over as president. Educated within the West to change into a doctor, Bashar al-Assad projected a picture of moderation and modernity, inspiring hope that he could usher in a recent era of progress and democracy in Syria.

However, Bashar al-Assad soon found himself in a turbulent regional landscape following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the US invasion of Iraq. In 2004, after the United States imposed sanctions on SyriaAssad was on the lookout for closer ties with Turkey. He and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have struck up a friendship as they waive visa requirements between their countries and plan to create economic zones to spice up trade.

Erdoğan and Assad then fell out during a series of events in 2011, which was a turning point for Syria. The country erupted in Arab Spring revolts, presenting Assad with a critical selection: pursue the trail of democracy or crush the opposition, as his father did in 1982.

He selected the latter, missing a historic opportunity for Syria’s peaceful transformation.

The consequences were disastrous. A devastating civil war broke out, killing over 300,000 people (some estimates are higher), 5.4 million refugees and 6.9 million internally displaced individuals. This will be Assad’s legacy.

Immediate challenges facing Syria

Syria now has a recent force in power: HTS and its leadership, led by militant leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. They will face immediate challenges and 4 key priorities:

1) Consolidation of power. The recent leadership will now strive to make sure that there are no armed groups capable of difficult their rule, especially the remnants of the old Assad regime and smaller factions that weren’t part of the opposition forces.

Crucially, they will also need to discuss how power will be shared among the many coalition of opposition groups. Al-Jolani is more likely to change into the founding president of the brand new Syria, but how the remainder of power will be distributed stays uncertain.

It seems that the opposition was not prepared to take power so quickly and there could also be no power-sharing agreement. This will need to be negotiated and worked out quickly.

The recent government will probably recognize it Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the territories it controls as an autonomous region in Syria. However, an independent Kurdish state will be strongly opposed by Türkiye, the most important external supporter of the opposition.

However, it seems that history is moving in favor of the so-called Kurds. There is now the last word possibility of establishing an independent Kurdish state, potentially uniting northern Iraq and northeastern Syria into one entity.

2) International recognition. Syria is a very complex and diverse place. Therefore, the brand new government can only be maintained if it receives international recognition.

The key players on this process are Türkiye, the European Union, the United States and Israel (through the US). It is likely that all of these entities will recognize the brand new government provided it establishes a moderate administration, refrains from fighting the Kurdish YPG and doesn’t support Hezbollah or Hamas.

Given the unexpected success in toppling Assad so quickly, the opposition will likely accept these terms in exchange for help and recognition.

3) Formation of a recent government. Everyone is wondering what kind of political order the opposition forces will establish now. HTS and lots of groups in its coalition are Sunni Muslims, including HTS origin linked to Al-Qaeda. However, HTS broke away from the terrorist organization in 2016 and focused exclusively on Syria as an opposition movement.

Nevertheless, we should always not expect democratic secular rule. The recent government is also unlikely to resemble the ultraconservative theocratic rule of the Taliban.

In his last interview for CNNal-Jolani made two key points. He indicated that his and other group leaders’ views evolved with age, suggesting that the intense views of their youth had softened over time. He also emphasized that the opposition will be tolerant towards the liberty and rights of religious and ethnic minorities.

The details of how this will manifest remain unclear. HTS is expected to form a conservative government by which Islam plays a dominant role in shaping social policy and legislating.

On the economic and foreign policy fronts, the country’s recent leaders are more likely to be pragmatic and open to alliances with the regional and global powers that have supported them.

4) Rebuilding the country and maintaining unity. This is needed to stop another civil war from breaking out – this time among the many victors.

Recent statement by the HTS Department of Political Affairs said the brand new Syria would give attention to construction, progress and reconciliation. The recent government goals to create positive conditions for displaced Syrians to return to their country, establish constructive relations with neighboring countries and prioritize economic reconstruction.

Syria and the broader Middle East have entered a recent phase of their modern history. Time will tell how all the things will develop, but one thing is certain: it will never be the identical.

The so-called “axis of the defenseless” is breaking in Syria. As of 2016 Russia and Iransupporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad, it took greater than a 12 months of bombings, ground attacks and sieges to interrupt rebel opposition in the eastern part of Syria’s largest city, Aleppo.

Now, in 2024, it took the rebels lower than 4 days to accomplish that liberate the city and most of Aleppo province. They also regained territory in neighboring Idlib province and moved south to northern Hama before the Assad regime established defensive lines.

Russian forces remained in their bases in the Mediterranean. Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah have been caught by rebels advancing on their positions in northwestern Syria. They abandoned them, but a minimum of not before two commanders were killed.

Since 2020, after Russia and Iran helped his forces thrust back opposition forces in much of Syria, Assad has presided over parts of the divided country in name. He and his allies controlled most of the largest cities, including Aleppo and the capital Damascus, while Turkish-backed opposition groups controlled most of northwestern Syria and U.S.-backed Kurdish factions had autonomy in the northeast.

Now Assad doesn’t even preside over his side of the division. And his Russian and Iranian enablers, overburdened and isolated throughout much of the world, are powerless to revive his paper rule.

Supporting Assad

Since the starting of the Syrian rebellion against Assad’s long-time rule in March 2011, Russia and Iran have provided political, logistical, intelligence and propaganda assistance to the Assad regime.

Iran successfully took over Assad’s army since September 2012, training tens of hundreds of militiamen to replenish depleted forces. Hezbollah sent his fighters since 2013 to rescue the Assad regime near the border with Lebanon. And Russia intervened special forces and air forces from September 2015

The success of Assad and his allies rested largely on their ability to weaken the international community. Kremlin spread destructive disinformation to cover up the regime’s deadly chemical attacks and denigrate opposition and Syrian activists White helmets civil defense.

Instead of holding the regime accountable, the Obama administration was dragged into fruitless ceasefire discussions. The EU was sidelined, the UN became powerless and Arab governments finally sat on their hands.

Perhaps the regime’s biggest triumph was portraying the collapse of the anti-Assad movement as extraordinary. Eastern Aleppo was retaken in December 2016. Daraa province, the original site of the protests, and the rest of southern Syria surrendered in 2018. An 11-month offensive recaptured Hama province and parts of Idlib before a ceasefire. mediated by Russia and Türkiyein March 2020

But this image was also an illusion hiding weakness. Russian bombings and sieges had leveled and strangled much of the country, but Moscow, Iran, and Hezbollah still lacked the strength to assist the regime occupy the rest of northwestern Syria or remove the Kurds from the northeast.

“Reconstruction” was a misleading label in areas reclaimed by the regime. Long burdened by the kleptocracy of the Assad elite, the Syrian economy has lost ground greater than half GDP in 2010–2020. The Syrian pound, which was valued at 47 per US dollar in 2011, has now fallen to 13,000 per US dollar and unofficially it is much weaker. International sanctions imposed as a consequence of the regime’s mass killings and repression remain in force.

The regime, even though it could count on external help, could maintain the illusion of power. But then Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, quickly conquering Ukraine in 2022. Nearly three years later, he has devoted most of Russia’s resources to operations there, putting the country under international economic pressure.

Iran’s leaders have been tormented by mass protests over social issues, including women’s rights. The economy still teeters between inefficiency and sanctions. And targeted killings and covert operations by Israel and the US have weakened the military.

Hezbollah has been decimated by Israeli attacks over the past three months, from pager explosions to the assassinations of commanders, including key leader Hassan Nasrallah. The shaky ceasefire has not freed militants from the threat of Israeli airstrikes and ground attacks.

So when the rebels attacked last week, they didn’t encounter the vaunted axis of resistance. They saw only the fading shadow of Assad’s alleged power.

Turkey’s key role

What’s next for Assad and his supporters? The answer may now lie with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Erdoğan may not have launched the rebel offensive, sources said Abu Mohammad al-Jolanithe leader of the Islamist faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, made a call – but he is the beneficiary of its result. Turkey political and economic scope in northwest Syria, it has expanded since 2016 to incorporate the country’s largest city.

Ankara has influence on the terms of the negotiations. It could encourage and even equip the rebels to proceed, or it could call for a halt and consolidation in preparation for a gathering with the Russians and Iranians. This has already been done by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hosted his Iranian counterpart in a show of diplomacy.

But this raises further questions. Erdoğan’s primary enemy in Syria is not Assad, but the Kurdish authorities, which he sees as part of the Turkish-Kurdish insurgent group, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

So far, the Turkish-backed rebels have had no serious clashes with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). SDF and Kurdish officials did so apparently pulled out areas in Aleppo province, trench work in north-eastern Syria.

But will Türkiye accept it or as in 2019Will he proceed his attack in the northeast? According to Ankara reports initiated talks with the Assad regime over a Turkish-controlled “buffer zone” far inside the border.

This brings in the United States, which is a significant supporter of the Kurds and the SDF. For now, Washington will likely maintain this commitment. But as of January, all bets are off as Donald Trump returns to the White House.

After a phone call with Erdoğan in late 2018, Trump he tried to back out all American soldiers from Syria. The Pentagon outmaneuvered him, but one other conversation with Erdoğan in October 2019 gave the green light for a Turkish cross-border invasion.

The axis of the defenseless is breaking, but the era of uncertainty in Syria continues. Syrian residents can only hope that it is now not so deadly and destructive.