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Syrians are torn between fear and hope as the front line moves rapidly

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The rapid capture by Syrian rebels of huge swaths of northern Syria, including the war-torn country’s second largest city, Aleppo, and the strategically essential city of Hama further south, is a blow to the regime of Bashar al. -Assad.

The rebels are here now pushing further south towards my hometown of Homs. When these cities fell to Assad – Aleppo fell in 2017 – it was seen as an indication of the end of Syria popular rebellion against the regimewhich began with such optimism when the Syrians poured out onto the streets across the country in 2011 to call for freedom, justice and dignity.

After a long time of oppression by the Assad family, hopes were high for a unique future. However, hope quickly turned to despair. Peaceful demonstrations were suppressed by Assad’s government, sparking a brutal armed conflict that left many dead half one million people and displaced over 12 million more.

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Over the years, the war in Syria has largely disappeared from the headlines. But with the explosion of violence in the country last week, that modified.



After capturing the city of Hama, the group at the center of the rebel advance, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), begins a campaign on Homs.
Institute of War Studies

For many Syrians, each in exile and at home, the rebel advance has rekindled hopes from 13 years ago. Many prisoners are like that already released from Syrian prisons and there may be cautious optimism that displaced people and refugees will finally have the ability to return home.

At the same time, nevertheless, many Syrians fear latest wars to return, latest cycles of violence in cities and towns across the country, and latest sources of suffering, displacement and human rights violations.

Assad has vowed to “crush” rebel forces, and his key allies Russia and Iran have offered their “unconditional support.” Since November 27, when the rebel offensive began, almost 300,000 people were relocated and a whole bunch died. Fighter jets intensively bombed rebel-held areas, hitting residential buildings and even A hospital in Idlib in northern Syria.

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In a speech delivered on December 4 to the UN Security Council in New York, Raed Al Salih, director of the Syrian White Helmets Civil Defense, also he talked about his own serious concern about the “real threat of chemical attacks”. Civilians, especially those in rebel-held areas, are once more trapped in the heart of battlefields.

But Syrians are not only fearful about further waves of violence. Since 2011, life itself has change into a struggle for access to basic necessities. And now the situation is becoming more and harder.

Prices of basic goods in Aleppo, as well as in other cities, have increased significantly since the rebel takeover, with reports from residents that the price of some goods has doubled. In a rustic where roughly 90% of the population already lives living in povertygreater instability will only make life harder for individuals who are already struggling to survive.

A street vendor sits in front of a damaged building in Aleppo.
A street vendor sits in front of a damaged constructing in Aleppo after opposition forces took over the city.
Bilal Al Hammoud/EPA

Fear of an uncertain future

There are also concerns that if rebel groups take control of further parts of the country, there can be further restrictions on freedom. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist militant group at the center of the offensive, was originally formed from al-Qaeda affiliates. However, in recent times the group has modified its name.

Its leader, Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, known by his pseudonym Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, identifies himself as champion of pluralism and tolerance. HTS is currently calling for the creation of a “Syria for all Syrians”, with the aim of gaining broad public support from people representing different religions and sects.

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In an exclusive interview with CNN on December 6 this 12 months. Jawlani was asked whether Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities will live safely under HTS rule. In response, he stated, “no one has the right to erase another group. Each sect has coexisted for hundreds of years and no one has the right to eliminate them.”

Regardless, many Syrians living abroad have expressed concerns about the future following the rebel advance. In interview released on December 4, Mehdi Hasan, a British-American journalist, discussed how HTS takes its cue from the Taliban in Afghanistan.

“Many supporters of the Assad regime say that if this group is allowed to take over Syria, it will be like the Taliban. You will oppress women, you will have persecution of Christians, you will have Shiites, and the targets will be minority groups,” Hasan noted. “Is this true right now? Is that so?” – he asked. Hassan I. HassanSyrian-American journalist, replied: “It’s true. And that’s the biggest fear.”

These concerns are rooted in human rights violations committed by HTS in the areas it controls. In 2023 Amnesty International warned that HTS subjected journalists, activists and anyone who criticized its rule in Idlib province to “arbitrary detention without access to a lawyer or family members.”

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A 12 months earlier, the Syrian Network for Human Rights based in Great Britain published the report attributing the deaths of not less than 505 civilians between 2012 and 2021 to HTS, including 71 children and 77 women. In an interview with CNN Jawlani admitted that “there have been some violations” against minorities by “some people during periods of chaos.” “But we have addressed these issues,” he added.

AND video on x (formerly Twitter) shows a Muslim woman asking a person in Aleppo if he’s a Christian and what his situation is after the rebels took over the city. The offensive appears to be accompanied by a coordinated PR campaign aimed toward reassuring folks that life will proceed as normal after HTS takes control.

This is in contrast to areas controlled by other radical groups such as Islamic State, where people have been killed due to their beliefs or religion.

Syria is once more at a crossroads. And nobody knows what might occur next. Turkman Rimsenior research fellow at the London School of Economics, believes that “a reasoned political solution that truly engages all actors on the ground” is the only thing that can ensure peace in Syria.

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After 13 years of exile, displacement and mass murder, we Syrians need this peace. But for now we want a miracle. The voices of wisdom, unity and peace must prevail to forestall Syria from falling into one other period of mourning.

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International

The new president of Lebanon is in the face of a fight uphill to direct the country away from the edge of the fall

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Lebanon parliament He selected a new president On January 9, after a two -year political impasse and 13 attempts. Joseph Aun reached the victory threshold in the second round of voting after his rival, a candidate supported by Hezbollah named Suleiman French, withdrew from the race.

In his inaugural speech to the Parliament, President Aoun outlined a series of obligations to cope with overlapping crises that led Lebanon to the fall point. However, the implementation of these guarantees can be extremely difficult.

The presidential victory AUN is amazing. He didn’t publicly conduct a work campaign and none of the political parties sponsored him as a favored presidential candidate. So how did Aouna appear to win the presidency?

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AUN, as an alternative of a established descendant of the political class commander of the Lebanese army From 2017. Lebanon Army, Lebanese armed forces (LAF) is a rare example of an establishment that is widely seen as a uniting symbol in Lebanon.

Aun effectively stopped the army from caught up with a recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, despite death Over 40 LAF soldiersAnd he played a decisive role in the supervision of a 60-day weapon suspension agreement, in which in November and France in November.

The essential supporters of the Presidential offer of AUN were a loose network of regional and international players, including USA, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. All these states perceive AUN as the best hope for maintaining a fragile suspension of weapons, while supervising the restoration of the domestic government of Lebanon.

They used their lever, providing economic assistance to addiction to Lebanon at the essential political fractions selecting AUN.

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Soldiers from the Lebanese armed forces secure the area after the Israeli army withdrew from the coastal city of Naqour in southern Lebanon, near the border with Israel.
Str / EPA

The selection of AUN provides further evidence weakening Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon. In recent years, Hezbollah has suffered several political and economic reversal.

In the universal elections in 2022, Hezbollah and his allies lost the parliamentary majority. And then, in 2024, it appears that evidently Israel weakened the hezbollah military machine, including killing his leader Hassan Nasrallah And a few seniors.



The recent overthrow of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria deprived Hezbollah of a powerful ally, while the essential supporter of the group, Iran, is unable to maintain the level of financing. Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah has decreased significantly International sanctions Managed by the US to prevent the regime in Tehran, developing nuclear weapons.

Former president of Lebanon, Michel Aun (Not related to Josephem Aun) He was a longtime ally of Hezbollah. The group hoped that they’d install one other ally at the Presidential Palace, supporting the candidacy of French. But French He withdrew from the race And next to many other legislators, he announced his support for AOUN.

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In his first speech as a president Aun said: “My mandate will emphasize the state of the state to monopolize weapons.” Although Aun didn’t call Hezbollah, his words were comprehensible that he would try to disarm the group. Hezbollah parliamentarians succumbed to quietly, and most deputies applauded the AUN statement.

For a good start

Aun accused his presidency of several sublime ambitions. But these ambitions will prove to be difficult to deliver. The power of the presidency has strict restrictions due to its largely symbolic status of figuration.

The president’s position is primarily to serve Lebanon power division system. This system provides representation guarantees in parliament 18 sect communities. To ensure that no group can monopolize political power, the role of the president is reserved for Maronite Christians, while the prime minister must come from the Muslim Sunnic community, and the chamber’s speaker is the Shiite.

President Aun has undertaken to reform the government of the division of power. The evidence from the survey indicates that the Lebanon government has The lowest level of trust In the Middle East. The Lebanese system of division of power is susceptible to dysfunctional political institutions, policy impasse and periodic rounds of fall. Politicians dividing power are known corruption and buying votes.

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Aun has a good start. A number of days after the meeting, he convened a parliament to select new prime ministerNawaf Salam, current head of the International Court of Justice. Salam confirmation is a surprise, because, like AUN, it is not seen as a patron of any of the essential political parties in the country.

The incontrovertible fact that the usual trading of horses between the essential pages of the arrangement of the new prime minister of the minister didn’t occur, emphasizes the weakness of Hezbollah, which was unable to get the preferred candidate, Najib Mikati, back into power. In response to the Salam meeting, Accused legislators of Hezbollah Their political opponents attempted to exclude and fragment the country. Salam has a long history calling for reform state and the fight against endemic corruption.

Nawaf Salam looks during a court trial.
Nawaf Salam, president of the International Court of Justice, was appointed Prime Minister of Lebanon.
Remko Waal / EPA

Aun and Salam are actually facing many challenges related to the hope that many Lebanese feel their meetings. They may have to create a government to obtain urgency to create political stability and approve the budget. Lebanon is confronted with the tragic economic situation, which the World Bank he identified as Among the “heaviest crisis episodes visible around the world since the mid -nineteenth century.”

Another urgent priority is the supervision of the current extension Weapon suspension agreement with Israelwhich ends on January 25. The current agreement requires the Israeli army to withdraw from the side of the border.

With the support of the army, large parts of the Lebanese population and the powerful international players of AOUN and Salam create evaporation that give realistic hope for a period of everlasting stability and reconstruction. But finding a way to construct a consensus policy in Lebanon is not going to be easy, especially if the new president and prime minister set a course that leads them to confrontation with Hezbollah.

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Türkiye fills a vacuum of power left by Assad, but peaceful coexistence is necessary for the future of the Middle East

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Similarly Iraq at the starting of 2003dominant images coming out of Syria at the end of 2024 were Joyful crowds of overthrowing the statues of thrown dictators . In just about all movies, stone or metal sculptures raises a cloud of dust when it decreases, blurring the view of the stage for a few moments.

After the fall of 61 years of the dictatorship of the Ba’ath party and 53 years of the Al-Azad dynasty in Damascus, our view on the geopolitical LansCape in Syria and the Middle East is similarly obscured. We are still in the process of a cloud raised by the fall of the regime, attempting to take a have a look at what it’s going to seem like when the dust falls.

However, there are some things that we are able to safely suppose. One of them is that Syria in 2024 may be for Turkey, which Iraq was for Iran in 2003. When the US attacked Iraq in 2003 and overthrew the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein and Iraqis Ba’ath, it also unknowingly got rid of the buffer state, so for many years he maintained the regional ambitions of Iran.

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In 2003, the starting of the Tehran march towards hegemony in the Middle East, and the outbreak of Arab spring in 2011 accelerated this process. The regional power of Iran has increased in tandem with destabilization in various other countries, to the extent that it will definitely established each direct and indirect presence (through Iran financed by Iran, trained and armed combat) in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Yemen and Iraq .

So -called Resistance axis He was nothing greater than an alliance of factions supported by Iran in these countries. The first touch stone of this initial hegemony was the land corridor for the Mediterranean Sea: Iran-Iraq-Syria -lebanon. The second was the ability to threaten the two most strategic straits in the region: Hormuz and Bab El-Manddeb (the latter by Yemeni Houthi Rebel).

When Iran reached the height of his power

In the years 2013–2017 Iran reached the zenith of his power in the Middle East. In particular Signing of the Nuclear Agreement 2015 He granted him international strength and put an end to the sanctions that mutilated his economy.

In this expansive phase, Iran tried to push the US out of the region and force countries equivalent to Saudi Arabia and the monarchy of the Persian Gulf to take care of a low profile and behave of Tehran’s interests. He also built a network to defeat Israel in the war for abrasion.

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Three leaders embodiment this successful strategy of Iranian regional domination: Qasem soleimanicreator of the resistance axis; Mohsen Fakhrizadehfather of the renovated nuclear program; AND AmmiResponsible for the development of the rocket and drone program.

However, the high pressure campaign initiated by Donald Trump during his first term at the office meant the starting of the fall of Iran. Soleimani was murdered in January 2020, and Fakhrizadadeh in November 2020. The signing of Abraham’s agreements, organized by Trump in September 2020, also accelerated the fall of the power of the Islamic Republic in the region.

The destruction of Gaza, the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and recently the fall of Al-Assad in Syria was the last nails in the casket of strategic and hegemonic aspirations of Iran.

Türkiye settles earlier results

Geopolitics stops a vacuum of power. The loss of one country is the profit of the other, and the space left by Iran is currently occupied by Turkey. This mustn’t be surprising: the history of the Middle East between the sixteenth and 18th centuries was the history of struggle between the Ottoman and Persian empires and it appears that evidently in the twenty first century.

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Syria Al-Assad and the Ba’ath party acted as a buffer state in Turkey Tayyip Erdoğan, which, like Russia Putin, desires to resolve the results with the past. In the case of Putin, this is the fall of the Soviet Union 30 years ago, for Erdoğan it is the fall of the Ottoman Empire 100 years ago.

It is not that Russia or Türkiye are attempting to regain direct rule over all previous territories of their imperial past, but try to determine an area of ​​influence on these territories. It could be based on a military occupation or occasional annexation of some border regions (in the case of Turkey, North Iraq and Syria). It also means establishing friendly governments in neighboring countries and creating a network of clients with military and economic assistance.

Ankara needs to be careful in coping with triumph in Syria. Erdoğan and other members of his party will feel improved by the fall of Assad, because along with Qatar they were the only Muslim countries in the Middle East, which maintained strong opposition to the Assad regime. Even lately, when Assad looked as if it would survive the civil war, and the Idlib rebel factions seemed an increasing number of weak, Türkiye and Qatar maintained support for resistance.

It is sensible that Ankara is celebrating a quick and unexpected triumph of December. However, Erdoğan also needs to have a look at Pakistan. A number of years ago, the Pakistan state security apparatus also celebrated the sudden and unexpected Taliban triumph after twenty years on the ropes, and it was clear that without the support of Islamabad Taliban victory in Kabul wouldn’t be possible. However, since the power of power, friction has increased between Taliban and Pakistan In recent weeks.

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Although it may be expected that Syrian rebels will maintain permits to Ankara, we are able to expect differences and misunderstandings in the future. To save the country from bankruptcy and misery, Damascus needs far more than simply what Türkiye or Qatar can offer.

In the pursuit of regional hegemony, Turkey will face not only Iran, but also Saudi Arabia, the third predominant player in the Middle East, who strives to shape the region in keeping with his interests. The result of various conflicts that currently kidnap the region could have a big impact on how well these three countries can learn to coexist.

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International

Gaza suspension of weapons and hostage factories: Why now and what next?

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What is the fundamental content of the contract?

Not all details have been displaced or released. But we understand it is:

The contract is divided into three stages. In the primary stage, 33 women, children and men sick or over 55 years old can be issued in stages For 42 days. Honvesters that they think through Hamas within the tunnel network under Gaza from October 7, include two American compatriots. In fact, 94 hostages remain in captivityIncluding 34 considered dead.

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The Israeli army may also allow Palestinians forced to depart northern gauze to return, although a major part of the world and their houses is in complete ruins.

On the sixteenth day of implementation, negotiations on the following stage of the contract will begin, which can include the discharge of other hostages made by HAMAS. As part of this stage, Israel will withdraw its forces into the defensive belt, which can function a buffer between the Gaza belt and Israel.

Palestinians have fun the announcement of the hostage contract on January 15, 2025 in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza Strip.
ASHRAF AMRA/Anadol by GETTY IMAGES

In exchange for releasing the hostages, Israel will release Palestinian prisoners in accordance with the agreed indicator for each Israeli deceased or live civilian or soldiers. In the initial wave of a whole lot of Palestinian women and children currently owned in Israeli prisons can be released. In addition, Israel will allow more humanitarian aid to swim in gauze.

The third stage of the contract will cover the discharge of other dead hostages and deal with the reconstruction of gauze supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations organization. At this stage, Israel is anticipated to completely withdraw from the Gaza belt.

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How significant is the breakthrough?

Fifteen months of war has devastated gauze. This agreement opens the chance of ending the fight and can allow the primary steps to reconstruct and stabilize within the Palestinian enclave.

It can even allow the upcoming Trump administration to deal with other issues which might be more crucial for her foreign policy program, resembling A possible latest contract with Iran and Resumption of standardization talks between Israel and Saudi ArabiaRelated to making a latest security alliance with the USA

For Israel, this implies the chance of ending the longest war that has The cost of a fortuneIN He eroded his international position and seriously He divided his society between supporters and opponents of the federal government. This may end the emergency, which is valid from October 7, 2023, enabling Israeli society to start out your personal recovery.

What problems remain unique?

At the later stages of the contract there are large query grades. Important members of the coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including the Minister of National Security ITAMAR BEN-GVIR and Minister of Finance, Nziealel Smotich, were accused more interested In Permanent occupation of the Gaza Strip than in the discharge of hostages. Therefore, they may not conform to all means that will result in the transfer of management and security to the Palestinian enclave.

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During the conflict, the Israeli government explained that it provides No role for Hamas In gas after the conflict. But the fundamental rival of Hamas, Palestinian authority, has slight credibility amongst Gaza residents. It leaves a stretch, who will rule in gas.

There can be a fear that if Israel were really serious about the total implementation of the contract, he could achieve a contract covering full withdrawal from gauze in exchange for releasing all hostages, not an agreement implemented in stages.

Why did the talks achieve success now, but earlier attempts will fail?

This contract was on the table not less than from May 2024. But Netanyahu and his government objected to this Because of their desire for Israel to stay under the control of Gaza.

Some of his government ministers also want Jewish settlements In the Gaza Strip and clearly talked about creating conditions for reducing the number of Palestinians on the waist.

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Netanyahu critics also suggested that the prime minister wanted extend the war so long as possible Because it served him politically.

But the doorway of Donald Trump to the equation after his election because the US president modified the dynamics between Israel, Hamas and the USA

Trump desires to be seen as Creator of transactions on the worldwide stageAnd Netanyahu – an in depth ally of Republicans – feels willing to assist Trump on this matter. The time of the contract allows Trump to use for a task, at the identical time Joe Biden allows to depart the office with foreign policy “winning”.

A man in shorts runs next to the wall with the faces of people.
The man flows next to the billboard with the portraits of the Israeli hostages.
HAZEM BADER/AFP by GETTY IMAGES)

There are also hopes that the conclusion of the contract is now obvious Conversations of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia -Proces began under the primary Trump administration.

Netanyahu may bet a contract with Saudi Arabia to balance his damaged fame at home as an Israeli control leader when the massacre of October 7 took place.

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How will the transaction play in Israel’s fragile policy?

This is an important query that can determine the fate of the contract in the long term.

His provisions are essentially contrary to the aspirations of many members within the ruling coalition of Netanyahu – and can do every little thing of their power to sabotage.

It continues to be unclear whether these right -wing suspension Get out of the federal government Or stay within the coalition under the conviction that these last phases of the contract won’t be implemented.

What does it mean for the long run of Hamas and its role in gas?

The contract doesn’t specify the conditions replacing the principles of Hamas in Gaza.

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Netanyahu thus far objected to all efforts so as to facilitate the return of the Palestinian body or allow other Arab or international consortium to conduct civil matters on the waist.

For his part, Hamas is just not serious about facilitating the exchange by other ruling bodies and control of gauze. But he lost key members of his leadership throughout the war, A bunch of fighters is in less powerful Position than before October 7.

The cynical view could also be that maintaining weakened Hamas can actually serve the interests of Netanyahu, allowing him to administer the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a substitute of trying to unravel it. This He was his approach before October 7And there are not any suggestions that it has modified.

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