Hezbollah, Hamas killings show Netanyahu willing to risk regional war for political survival

Israel’s Obvious Killings Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s Supreme Military Leaderin Beirut and the political leader of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh in Tehranhave once more raised the specter of a regional war involving regional adversaries – a war that would potentially draw the United States into it.

By targeting the 2 leaders, the Israeli government has shown that it’s willing to risk escalating the conflict onto recent fronts. This is despite some senior defense chiefs having sent, at best, conflicting messages in recent months over whether the IDF is satisfactorily prepared, after nine months of confrontation within the Gaza Strip, for a large-scale war in Lebanon or elsewhere.

How a scholar from Lebanon and IsraelI even have been following recent events within the region with growing concern. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could also be assuming that Iran and Hezbollah don’t have any real appetite for a full-scale war, preferring to proceed their policy of constant attrition in Israel.

If so, it is a dangerous strategy and any miscalculation could have disastrous consequences.

Raising the stakes

Shukr was killed in an exchange of blows between Israel and Hezbollah that has been ongoing since October 8, the day after Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, which sparked a heavy and ongoing response within the Gaza Strip. In particular, it was in retaliation for the killing of 12 children on July 28, 2024, within the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, for which Hezbollah was blamed.

The Beirut assassination was a daring and dangerous move by Israel, carried out in broad daylight in the town, despite repeated requests from the US and other Western countries. don’t attack the capital of Lebanon.

By conducting the operation in Beirut, Israel has overstepped the boundaries of the “rules of the game” in its war of attrition against Hezbollah since October 7. Until now, the Lebanese capital had been targeted by Israel just once, January 2, 2024, assassination of Saleh Arourione other Hamas leader, not removed from where Shukr was killed.

At the time, it was assumed that Hezbollah wouldn’t escalate the conflict to kill a Palestinian leader, regardless of how necessary an individual he is perhaps.

But there isn’t a doubt that Hezbollah will respond to this recent attack; the questions are how and when, and whether his response will bring his opponents one other step closer to a full-fledged war.

Shame on Iran

Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran took place within the context of Israel’s declared commitment to kill all Hamas leaders implicated within the October 7 massacre, although the country has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack, as is standard practice there.

Israel Qatar allegedly guaranteedhost country of Haniyeh that it could not attack Hamas leaders inside its borders. Israel also decided not to kill him during Haniyeh’s recent visit to Turkeypotentially for fear of further alienating Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Instead, Israel appears to have been waiting for the fitting opportunity elsewhere to send a transparent signal not only to Hamas but more broadly to Israel’s foremost regional adversary and Hamas’s foremost sponsor, Iran.

Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran puts the Iranian regime in an embarrassing situation. The attack by a foreign country openly violated Iran’s sovereignty at a time when the regime was preparing to have a good time the nomination of the brand new presidentThe Hamas leader was amongst international dignitaries invited to the inauguration.

The attack shows two things: Iran’s vulnerability and Israel’s ability to launch an attack based on precise intelligence and superior technology. Either way, it exposes the weaknesses of the Iranian regime.

The last time Iran claimed its sovereignty was violated by Israel – in the course of the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, 2024 – Iran responded by firing tons of of missiles and combat drones against Israel.

This time, Iran could use its proxies, including Hezbollah, or respond directly, using its own military from its own territory, because it did in April. On July 31, it was reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered a direct attack.

Internal Cracks in Israel

I think that these attacks have closed the door to any likelihood of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, including the discharge of Israeli hostages, anytime soon.

The killings also make the war of attrition between Israel and Hezbollah more unstable and dangerous.

All sides, including Israel, clearly realize that a full-scale war is in nobody’s interest, which might explain why it has not escalated to that level despite months of provocations by all involved.

At the identical time, nevertheless, the region is moving closer to this possibility; the Middle East is at a moment of utmost instability.

All this is occurring while the country of Israel is combating serious challenges to its political system and the rule of lawThe war in Gaza has brought to the forefront forces inside Israeli society that openly seek to change its political system and query each the command structure and the military’s combat culture.

The recent attack on the military police by a mob led by members of the far-right Knesset investigating allegations of torture and sexual assault Hamas prisoners in Israel is only one example of the cracks developing in Jewish-Israeli society.

Towards total war?

Netanyahu, whose critics say he is especially motivated by his the need to maintain powerbuilt his profession by exploiting internal divisions. His dependence on members of the far right his government, in addition to exploiting internal tensions in Israel, have only deepened divisions.

His decision to authorize attacks in Beirut and Iran have to be seen within the context of his fight for political survival.

I imagine that every one of Netanyahu’s actions, including the prolongation of the war in Gaza, have to be understood on this context. His political survival depends upon the support of far-right parties that seek to proceed and expand the war and that openly call for a more aggressive stance towards Hezbollah and Iran.

He can be supported by public opinion in Israel, which supports confronting Hezbollah “with full force”, without considering the incontrovertible fact that such an motion would likely be devastating for Hezbollah and Lebanon and would entail huge human and infrastructure losses for Israel.

Netanyahu can count on the incontrovertible fact that Iran and Hezbollah have thus far shown no willingness to bring about an all-out war, despite the fact that Hezbollah he said he was prepared for it.

So far, Israel has also shown no desire for a full-blown war on multiple fronts. But I fear that events just like the attacks in recent days may lead us right into a downward spiral that might be difficult to control.