More than ten years ago, a United Nations report described the Gaza Strip as virtually uninhabitableadding that it would take a “Herculean effort” to change this.
Today, after six months of bombing, mass shift and the Israeli siege, the task of rebuilding Gaza seems virtually unimaginable.
I’m scientist and systems engineer who as director of research Center for Health and Humanitarian Systems at Georgia Techexamines the intersections of public health and education, specializing in optimizing systems for effective and equitable access to essential services.
I do know that in the best of times, designing complex systems involving people, communities, technologies, and limited resources – often with conflicting priorities and impacting multiple segments of society – is an incredibly complex challenge. Doing this in the middle of geopolitical conflict makes the problem seem unimaginable.
However, what we’re currently coping with in Gaza is on a completely different scale. The enclave stands cascading crises – a condition through which multiple interrelated crises occur sequentially or concurrently, each triggering or exacerbating the next. And while it’s difficult to look beyond the each day horrors of the war in Gaza, there’ll come a time when the world will begin to turn to recovery and rebuilding. The fear is that cascading crises will make this process way more difficult and, furthermore, increase the human costs of this conflict in the years to come.
Beyond the death toll
as UN report from 2012 questioning the “livability” of Gaza, the occupied enclave has long faced serious problems in providing for the people living in a single of the most densely populated areas in the world. My mother, who lives in the West Bank, often visited Gaza as part of her duties as a member of the Commission Palestinian National Council and the General Secretariat of the General Union of Palestinian Women. She shared stories about the country’s wealthy culture, but additionally about noticeable problems such as the lingering smell of sewage and unemployment above 45%.
Of course, after months of Israeli bombing following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, the immediate concern is human lives. The conflict has already occurred killed over 33,000 people in Gazaaccording to Gaza health authorities.
However, the devastation brought on by armed conflicts goes beyond direct casualties. Causal paths – that is, chains of events whose effects might be felt in the long term – mean that the current conflict will almost definitely lead to lasting social and health crises. And those the research have shownmay dwarf the devastation of energetic conflict, each in scope and severity.
An evaluation of 13 recent armed conflicts by the Geneva Declaration Secretariat, a UN-backed initiative, found that in 12 of them the number of indirect deaths exceeded the number of direct deaths.
The report conservatively estimates that for all and sundry who dies as a direct result of war, 4 more die as a result of its indirect effects – such as waterborne diseases brought on by a lack of secure, clean water and the destruction of water treatment facilities, or deaths as a result of childbirth complications brought on by interruptions in the provision of health services.
Given the scale and scope of destruction brought on by six months of bombing, the consequences of the war in Gaza could also be much more serious. And while these effects are frequently felt with a delay, they’re already happening in Gaza. Economic collapse, infrastructure destruction, environmental damage and displacement have created a multidimensional crisis.
Vulnerable systems
To understand the challenge of overcoming Gaza’s cascading crises, it’s value taking a snapshot of the effects of the months-long conflict.
War does devastated the enclave’s economy. In mid-February, the UN estimated that almost half of all farmland had been destroyed and a few According to reports, 70% of Gaza’s fishing fleet was destroyed.
In the first months of bombing almost 70% of Gaza’s 439,000 homes and about half of all buildings – including shops – were damaged or destroyed.
Meanwhile, the destruction of Gaza’s health infrastructure has left roughly three-quarters of hospitals and two-thirds of primary care clinics closed turning offonly when leaving 10 of 36 hospitals are barely functioning – amputations are performed without anesthesiaAND the number of miscarriages increased by 300%.
AP Photo/Ismael Abu Dayyah
This health crisis has been made worse by: lack of clean water and essential medical supplies. It contributed to a sharp increase in the number of infectious diseases, acute respiratory infections, severe dehydration and diarrhea.
Hospitals and clinics, and lots of of them, are combating the problem of functioning without electricity health care staff were injured or killed, which drastically affects the efficiency of the healthcare system. And many schools and universities were destroyed, making education inaccessible. When the war ends, Palestinians in Gaza will emerge from the conflict with their education, health, housing, and economic systems under profound threat.
Reconstruction cost
All these aspects are interconnected. In other words, they make one another worse and create a cascading effect of negative impacts on Palestinians in Gaza. Take, for instance, the query of mass displacement, z 1.7 million people forced to leave their homes which have been largely destroyed: this affects people’s ability to earn a living, leading to increased poverty and a greater risk of malnutrition.
The aftermath of the conflict requires rebuilding many features of society, including social structures, health, infrastructure and education – all of which have been severely disrupted.
Take education as one other example: disruptions to kid’s learning not only impact individual learning and development, but additionally have long-term consequences for the overall well-being of communities. The trauma of war means many children will face serious challenges even when the bombing stops. Loss of education will reduce employment opportunities, which in turn will impact the overall economy.
Solving this problem would require an integrated approach that not only focuses on the physical reconstruction of schools, but additionally takes under consideration the quality of education and psychological and social support for youngsters. The UN projects that 1 million children – almost every child in Gaza – will need mental health and psychosocial support. Meanwhile, rebuilding Gaza’s public health systems would require solutions that not only address immediate medical needs, but additionally address broader infrastructure – including mental health services and vaccination programs, as well as the provision of essential medicines.
Rebuilding cities facing the cascading crises facing Gaza is a daunting prospect. And while this task could appear insurmountable at the moment, with cooperation, coordination and courage, it isn’t unimaginable.
However, it’s a challenge that becomes harder with each passing day that the war in Gaza continues.