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What the fall of Assad says about Putin’s ambitions regarding the status of the great power of Russia

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The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria caused shock waves in the Middle East. The removal of the dictator, whose family ruled the country with an iron fist for over half a century, caused potentially a seismic shift of the balance of power in the region.

But there are also essential repercussions outside Syria and its neighborhood – with Russia one of the most important powers.

In 2015, the Assad regime was on the brink of fall. This He was saved through Russian intervention – with the support of Iran and Hezbollah. Fired in the context of The growing threat from the Islamic State Russia enabled the Assad regime to pus the other rebel forces.

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Over the following years, Assad allowed Assad to consolidate control over the capital, other key cities, especially the coastal region, by which Russia had two military bases.

The future of these bases is now uncertain. The Russian Navy base in Tartus-which dates back to the Soviet times-also the air base in Khmeimi, founded southeast of Latakia in 2015, were essential benefits of Russia to display military force in the Mediterranean Sea and strengthen the Kremlin’s claim to the Russian status of great power .

Considering the importance of bases for Russia and significant investments revamped the years in supporting the regime, the fall of Assad It reflects badly About Russia’s ability to make sure a reputable influence on the global scene.

Even if Russia someway manages to barter a contract with recent rulers of Syria about the future of its military bases, the undeniable fact that Moscow was unable to save lots of a vital ally, resembling Assad, reveals critical weaknesses in Russia’s ability to act, not only saying , like great power.

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There are clear intelligence failures that omitted or incorrectly interpreted the accumulation of anti-asssad forces by runny nose and silent support of Turkey. These failures were then compounded by the reduced Russian military assets in Syria and the inability to strengthen them in a short while. This is clearly as a consequence of the ongoing Russia war against Ukraine.

The impoverishment of the military abilities of two other allies in the region – Iran and Hezbollah – moreover intensified the difficulties for Assad and exacerbated the effect of excessive pulling of Russia. This also raises the query of whether Russia strategically evaluated the situation and underestimated its sensitivity in Syria.

But much more so, he emphasizes Russia’s own dependence on allies, who simply don’t agree with Moscow’s demands – as Assad did when he provided Russia with its military bases – but who actively support the great power, which has no means to acknowledge them Status – like Iran and Hezbollah did it in 2015.

Where are China?

China is missing on this equation. While Beijing on the Assad side after the start of the civil war in Syria, the support was mainly rhetorical. This was mainly stopping the intervention supported by the western part of the one in Libya, which led to the fall of Gaddafi and since then immersed the country in chaos.

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Loud Assad visit to China in September 2023 Partnership strategic agreement. This appeared to signal the next step towards the rehabilitation of the Syrian regime, at the least in the eyes of Beijing. But when Push got here to a pushing and Assad’s rule was under a serious threat, China did nothing to save lots of him.

XI Jinping and Bashar Al-Assad: Friends-and limited advantages.
Yao dawei/xinhua/alamy live news

This raises a vital query About the Chinese judgment of the Syrian regime i The evolving crisis. But here can be a wider point on the Russian ambition of great power.

Despite the whole conversation about the unlimited partnership between Moscow and Beijing, China eventually did nothing to save lots of Russia from the embarrassing defeat in Syria. Where Russia needed a military presence to strengthen its claims to the status of great power, Chinese interests in the Middle East are First of all, about economic possibilities and perceived threat Islamic fundamentalist terrorism.

This clearly limited Beijing’s appetite to get more involved, let alone save Assad.

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Putin has decreased

Russia’s position in the Middle East is now at risk. Moscow lost a key ally at Assad. Other foremost allies, Iran and Hezbollah are significantly weakened. Israel and Türkiye, with which the Kremlin has not had easy relations in the previous few years, have been strengthened.

This exposes the Holowness of Russian claims for great power status. It will probably reduce the Russian prestige and the position it has in the eyes of other partners – regardless of whether or not they are China or North Korea, members of BRICS, or countries on the global south, which Russia recently tried to get.

The consequences of this for Ukraine-probably the foremost source of excessive stretching of Russia-will probably be ambivalent. On the one hand, the ease with which Assad has been covered shows that Russia isn’t invincible and that its support for brutal dictatorships has limits. On the other hand, there ought to be no waiting for anything but doubles in Ukraine.

Putin needs success that restores his national and international trust – and quickly. After all, Donald Trump doesn’t like losers.

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Iran and Ethiopia have a security contract – here they have signed it

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Ethiopia and Iran signed Memorandum of the findings (Mou) on May 6, 2025. Under it, their national police agencies will cooperate on security and intelligence. This includes combating cross -border crime, sharing intelligence and constructing abilities. They may even divide experiences and training.

For Iran, Mou is a significant step towards strengthening relations with the regional force, which is strategically positioned contained throughout the corner of Africa.

Tehran uses his own Safety apparatus and military capabilities Establishment and extension of political and economic ties with countries in Africa. It accommodates Drone transfers to the Ethiopia government that helped him reverse the wave Tigray warThe separatist fight contained throughout the north of the country, which took place in 2020–2022.

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Iran also provided the Sudan army, supervision and combat drones. They were used against paramilitary fast support forces in Sudan Ongoing civil war.

The contract is valid for Ethiopia for 2 reasons.

First of all, it will probably allow the Ethiopia government in Addis Abeba to fight ethnic militias more effectively. It’s vital to Increasing internal instabilityincluding tensions with the hostile factions of the separatist Tigray Liberation Front.

Secondly, the contract appears after meeting In Addis Abeba between the Ethiopian police head, Demelash Gebremichael and a delegation from the regional rival of Iran, the United Arab Emirates (ZAA). The stock exchange focused on the investigation and extraction of cross -border criminals.

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The desire for Addis Ababy to work with regional rivals contained throughout the Middle East shows her a pragmatic approach to foreign relations. Ethiopia needs all friends whom he can gather as a drained and weakened state. Since the war, Tigray has fought for the expansion of ethnic militias and confronted his economic adversities. It is just too In the face of the renovated hostility with neighboring Eritrea.

What Iran can gain

Since 2016, Ethiopia has been a gate for Iran to win a foothold in Corner of Africa. This yr, other countries of the region broke off relations with Iran. It happened after Tehran solution from Sub -Saharan Africa below Hassan Rouhani, which was the president in 2013–2021and his priority Nuclear agreement with the USA.

Cutting the bond was also a by -product geopolitical pressure exerted by Saudi Arabia and Zea to countries contained throughout the region. The Middle East desired to throughout the reduction of, if not eliminated, the presence of Iran contained throughout the corner of Africa and the Red Sea Limit support for Houthi Rebels In The ongoing Civil War of Yemeni.



Ethiopia was the primary country in Sub -Saharan Africa, which contained throughout the Nineteen Sixties established relations with Iran. He was also considered considered definitely one among his The best trading partners on the continent before and after 1979 Iranian Revolution.

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Strategically and ideologically, it Special relationship He was based on the resolutions of their western and anti-communist monarchs: Shah Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who ruled in 1941–1979AND Emperor Haile Selsie, who was in power in 1930–1974.

After the revolution, Iran-Etiopia relations revived Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which was the president of Iran in 2005–2013. He hunted for an brisk African policy to alleviate the international isolation of Iran and bypass US sanctions.

After Rouhani initially lowered these relationships, they were renovated during his second term. This happened after withdrawal from the USA from the nuclear agreement.

Relations included when Ebrahim Raisi, who was the president of Iran from 2021 to 2024He provided military drones and other help to Addis Abeba through the Tigray war.

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What is for Ethiopia

Ethiopia is contained throughout the face of Increasing instability and uncertainty. Tigray war exhausted the resources of the state. Is economic crisis brought on by growing inflation and unemployment.

Addis Abeba continues to be confronted with ethnic tensions. The hostile factions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front stays. He also becomes contained throughout the face of tensions with the militia Amhara Fano, who initially fought next to the federal government against Tigrayan forces. Forced disarmament policy and ongoing land disputes meant that the militia took weapons against the federal government.



Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also stands contained throughout the face of growing opposition and resistance on the a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a part of his own ethnic group, a lot of the OROMO and their army of Liberation Oromo. The reason for his or her dissatisfaction is Abiy’s imposition of centralized government on their regional state contained throughout the federal system.

Cooperation of security and intelligence with Iran can allow Addis Abeba to fight ethnic militias more effectively.

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It would also allow Ethiopia Get ready for a further possible war with neighboring Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea normalized relations and fought with Tygrayan forces. However, tensions between the 2 countries reached again. They were brought on by two points. First, conditions 2022 Premia Protory Pretoria It caused Eritrea to deal together together along together together along along together along together together along along together along along together along along along together along along together together along along along together together along together together together together along along along together together together along along together together along together along along along together along along along along together along along along together together together along along along along along along together along along along along along together together along along together along together together along together together together together together together together together along together together along along along along along together together together along along along together along together together together together together along together together along along together along along together along along together along together along along together together along together along together along together along along along along together along along along together along together together along together along together together together along together together along together together along together along together along along along along together along along together along along together together together together along together together together together together along together together along along along along together along together along together along along along together along together together along along along along together along together together along together along together along together together along along along along along along along together along along together together together together together along together together along along with his strength in Ethiopia. Secondly, the ambitions of Addis ABBY of the acquisition of the Red Sea in Somaliland, detachment in Somalia. Eritrea has He supported the opposition of Somalia to the contract.

Regional Power Games

This is just not the primary time Ethiopia tried to cooperate with two regional rivals – Iran and United ZAA. ZAA is possibly considered considered definitely one among them The best trading partnersalong with Saudi Arabia.

In 2016, Ethiopia was the one country contained throughout the corner of Africa, which didn’t reduce the reference to Iran, although it was under the pressure of Zea and Saudi Arabia. The decision was made by predecessor Abiy, Hailemariam Desalegn, whose term lasted in 2012–2018.

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During the war, Tigray received Ethiopia Military drones And one other help of Iran and Zea, next to Turkey.

The civil war in Sudan presented a fair more complicated history. Ethiopia hesitated between commitment to Fast support forces and Sudan armed forces at different points of the conflict.

For his part, Iran has He supported the Sudanese army. ZAA supported the paramilitary forces of quick support.

Ethiopia efforts geared toward strengthening their security ties with Iran and ZAA show a unique case of convergence between regional rivals, who otherwise remained on opposite sides of conflicts in countries comparable to Yemen and Sudan.

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In Yemen, Trump risks the “air force trap”, which pulled out the US presidents in expensive wars

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In the first 100 days of his second term of office, US President Donald Trump showed a desire to bend over the air force when his administration decides that military force is mandatory abroad.

So far, the second Trump administration has begun Limited raids in Somalia and conducted a weekly aviation campaign against Houthi entangled in Iran who rule the majority of Yemen. The president also threatened direct strikes against Iran himself should Conversations about the latest nuclear agreement collapse.

This turn for Airpower for Trump is smart to me. The air force is low-cost in comparison with ground wars and typically involves Less victims For individuals who strike. This helps to clarify why American leaders, including Trump as self -styled “Anti -war president“He often considers it attractive.

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But if the Trump administration is just not cautious, it might fall into what military strategists call informally “Drive trap. “This happens when the targets of military force are too high, in order that the air force itself can achieve, potentially resulting in the escalation of the conflict to the saving face, which could-if history is a guide-guide-carry out ground forces from the USA or their local allies.

US presidents, similar to Lyndon Johnson, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, fell into this trap. In Vietnam, Balkwanie and Syria ended in much larger wars than they expected, with consequences for civil victims, international peace and damage to America’s fame abroad.

As Expert in the field of US National Security Policy and The Middle East regionI imagine that Trump’s administration is threatened with falling into the trap of the air force in Yemen and may potentially do the same in Iran if you happen to resolve to make use of direct strength against Tehran. Recognition of this military and historical risk and the selection of a type of ramp from continuous raids might be the best hope that the US government must avoid further escalation in a full -scale war.

Aviation bombardment limits

Tests shows that Airpower is the only when used for limited purposes – similar to taking the leaders of the terrorist groups Support for ground operations more ambitious goalslike strengthening or overthrowing governments.

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Given the sophistication of the American air force, a Joint error In particular, the American strategists are considering of great strategic profits can only be achieved by dropping bombs from above.

But when the air force fails, leaders can feel the pressure to increase the scope of the conflict and end with larger military obligations than expected.

Johnson’s initial strategy just for the air force to check Stop communism in southern Vietnam It was impossible to regret what led to his decision to involve half 1,000,000 American soldiers in the war. This is an prolonged conflict supplying the years of war, with massive humanitarian and political consequences for people in Southeast Asia and America, in addition to everlasting reputational damage to the USA

Yemenians wear civilian coffins killed in American air raids, collaborating in the funeral procession on May 1, 2025 in San in Yemen.
Mohammed Hamud/Getty Images

He is nervous about the credibility of us and NATO, Clinton escalated raids – almost to Land forces introduction point – for the ambitious end of the arrest of the Balkans in the early Nineteen Nineties. Similarly, Obama’s initial strategy only in the field of air force, to “degrad and destroy ”by the Islamic State group He hesitated quickly, leading Obama under intensive pressure in the country and abroad to introduce hundreds of ground soldiers to combat the territorial advantages of the group in Syria and Iraq.

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In each case, relying in the air force itself didn’t achieve their goals.

Air trap in Yemen

There are reasons to think that the conditions in Yemen mean that Trump may fall into an analogous trap.

Trump adopted the strategy of only the air force to “Completely annihilate“Houthis, a Powerful Rebel movement It’s all except won the last civil war of the Yemenian. The direct explanation for the aviation campaign, the policy inaugurated by Biden administration and dramatically prolonged by Trump, is Restore free shipping flow In the Red Sea, Houthi disrupted with strength to protest about the ongoing Israel war in Gaza.

Early signs are that this air campaign is just not going well.

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Despite United States burning by finished supplies of ammunition at the cost of USD 1 billion for bombing a minimum of 800 sites From March 15 Houthi are undetermined and the shipping volume in the Red Sea as depressed as all the time. Houthi Attacks on American ships and Israel To proceed. AND The Houthi missile was barely missing Ben-Gurion airport in Israel on May 4.

In fact direct attacks on Houthi and a rapidly growing variety of victims Among the Yemeni civilians From the Trump’s bombing campaign, it appears to be Houthis reinforcement ‘ political position in Yemen. In a very shocking case, American bombs supposedly hit the African migrant campKilling and hurt dozens of individuals.

Humanitarian crisis from a brutal bomb campaign through the coalition under the leadership of Saudi against Houthi at the end of 2010 he had An identical effect.

Airpower also played a giant role. Saudi coalition, maintained by the USA, involved in some 25,000 raids against Houthi, killing or mutilated roughly 19,000 civilians. However, despite such an amazing strength, Houthis still passed the territory and eventually won the civil war, According to experts.

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Since then, they’ve been de facto rulers of the country.

Now Trump is investigating further escalation options to defeat Houthi. Reports indicate His administration is considering Armament, training and enabling Houti fighters who’re loosely related to the Yemen government in exile to begin ground operations.

Between diplomacy and quagmire

Proxies are a standard tool to which leaders turn to, to which they turn once they were caught in a drive trap. Sometimes these proxies meet American policy goals similar to Kurdish people’s protection units or YPGwhich the USA helped Defeat the Islamic State Caliphate in 2019.

The plane drops bombs.
Air Force F-5 SKOSHI Tiger drops three general purpose bombs on Vietnam on February 28, 1966.
Photo by Underwood Archives/Getty Images

Often, American deputies are incurred each strategic and humanitarian, which results in further escalation, strategic swamps for the USA and the lack of political life and sovereignty for attacked people. South Vietnam was an instructive example.

Canceled by corruption, bad management, weakness and political struggle, Army and government of southern Vietnam It turned out to be so ineffective in the fight against the North Vietnamese that Johnson decided to begin a ground war when the American air force failure.

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Today, the resistance against Houthi in Yemen looks more like a South Vietnam government than Kurdish YPG. According to 2025 Report with Sufan CenterA Security Think Tank, Houthi forces are badly trained and regarded unable to win over Houthis without much support in the USA.

Meanwhile Houti resistance against Houti It consists of about 85,000 fighters, in comparison with about 350,000 for Houthi.

In the event of constant the air war or escalating it right into a more versatile conflict, American officials may proceed to strive for diplomacy to try to search out a political solution to Yemen conflict.

Despite the public threats of the Trump administration, the USA is already negotiating with the predominant sponsor of Houthi, Iran.

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For their part, the Houthi still insist that they stop attacking ships in the Red Sea Israel’s war in Gaza retention, something that happened During the last suspension of weapons to gauze.

The Trump administration may consider in search of alternatives similar to direct or indirect conversations if he desires to avoid getting stuck in a widened conflict in Yemen. History is filled with examples of what is going on when Airpower takes by itself logic.

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Iran’s nuclear agreement: The future stability of the Middle East hangs on his success, but the initial signs are not good

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The second week in a row, senior officials from the United States and Iran will meet to participate in talks about the Iranian nuclear program. This is the second round in the latest negotiations – the first took place in Oman on April 12.

But the last statements of each the White House and older Iranian officials, including Opinion difference Where talks should happen, they suggest that quick diplomatic successes may not be available.

The position of Donald Trump in the Iran case was surprisingly belligerent. It was the first Trump administration to withdraw from the nuclear agreement in 2015 and imposed on Iran the policy of “maximum pressure”. Since his return to the oval office, Trump has again imposed this policy of maximum pressure.

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Publishing on xThe American Special Eastern envoy in the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said that “Iran must stop and eliminate the nuclear enrichment program and weapons.” He also called for verification of all spare missiles in the Islamic Republic.

Iranian officials rejected these demands of the US loudly, along with the Minister of Foreign Affairs ABBAS ARAGHCHCH, claiming that the rocket program is not for discussion.

Tehran needs a contract

There is little doubt that Iran wants a contract, perhaps he even needs a contract. It was like that Strinking hard by sanctions Over the past decade, which have hollowed out, the country’s middle class.

Israel’s military strikes towards Iran and his allies over the past yr have been eroded the ideological and military strength of the Islamic Republic and a wider “axis of resistance”. With the weakening of many allies, Iran missiles are much more vital as deterrent.

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The strong line adopted by the Trump administration leaves little space for the maneuver. He risks much more that in Iran, which are less likely to have interaction diplomatically. But every militant rhetoric from votes in Iran risk pouring fuel in an incendent situation.

At the same time, the Islamic Republic is in the face of a number of serious pressure in the country, equivalent to this woman, life, libertarian movement, and increasingly more loud opposition abroad-especially from self-proclaimed Prince Reza PahlaviSon of Shah, who was removed in 1979.

Although Iran may desire a contract, he may not give up – especially after the events of last yr. And it shouldn’t.

Iran’s newspapers speak about the perspective of the contract, April 2025.
EPA-EFE/ABEDKANEH

We weigh her strategy

Jastrzębie in the USA, Israel and other countries, of course, heralded the position of Trump’s administration. The fears of the Iranian nuclear program are still guided by the actions of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and others – although there have been reports that Israeli strikes for the purposes of Iran were proposed Methed by Trump in favor of greater negotiations.

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While the Persian Gulf countries would someday have a good time a difficult position towards Iran, the situation is now different. Iran’s long -time rival, Saudi Arabia, put away his many years in the hope of a more prosperous future.

In agreement in 2023, through China, Saudi Arabia and Iran He agreed to normalize relationsOpening the embassies and starting a series of coordinated military exercises. For Saudi Arabia, especially his crown prince and de facto ruler of Mohammed Bin Salman, regional stability is obligatory in the implementation of the ambitious VISION2030 – who bends strongly in the global trust of investors.

As a result, the kingdom has taken a practical change in regional matters, setting out The process of diplomatic rapprochement This surprised many observers. Riyad also took steps towards normalization with Israel, although the ongoing destruction of the gauze Such movements stoppedAt least for now.

At the same time wherein nuclear negotiations happen, Israeli attacks goals in Syria To proceed. The fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024-and the rear place took her a few years of supporter, Russia-Russia modified the political landscape of Syria.

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Although his former president, Bashar al-Assad, has A shelter was present in RussiaMoscow undertook a temporary observer, willingly not antagonize the latest Syria regime and threatens her strategically vital military bases on the Mediterranean coast. Members of groups previously favored by the Assad regime, especially the Alawi community, They escaped to the Russian Navy base in Latakia in search of protection.

But 1000’s of others were killed amongst the growing violence as the strength of the latest regime, led by Ahmad Al-Shary, attempt to extinguish all the stays of the Assad’s regime-series of events that look incredibly much like what happened in Iraq 20 years ago, when the trial “Reference of this”. He tried to remove all traces of the Saddam Hussein regime from public life.

Fragile regional order

The situation in the entire region is uncertain, and the actions of global powers are still resounding. While Washington is pressure on Tehran and Moscow, in addition to the scope of Chinese influence in the region increases.

Ironically, Trump’s tariffs on China can push Beijing further to the Middle East, attempting to use the available possibilities. His lane and road initiative is positioned by the Middle East strongly in the strategic interests of China. It will probably open a brand new front in the competition between Washington and Beijing.

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All the time people from the Middle East still pay the hardest price. Ongoing wars and uncertainty, fears of regional conflict and unsure political conditions – in addition to rising food prices and pressure on health care – they create a perfect storm that increases pressure and challenges related to on a regular basis life.

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