Why is the ceasefire agreement happening now?
The timing of the ceasefire is the results of a convergence of interests between the Israeli government, Hezbollah itself, and its most important sponsor, Iran – but all for different reasons.
For the Israeli government, domestic issues are at stake. First, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are exhausted after greater than a 12 months of war. This is especially true for Israeli reservistsan increasing variety of whom don’t report for duty. Israeli public opinion can be bored with ia conflicts most favor a ceasefire with Hezbollah.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also has to take care of internal problems in his government. He is face the pressure from ultra-Orthodox partners of the ruling coalition to develop laws exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from military conscription.
Reducing the necessity for lively personnel by calming down the front with Lebanon will help. The secular and national-religious segments of society who actually serve within the IDF and who’re concerned about the potential for introducing a formal law exempting ultra-Orthodox men from military conscription could also be more willing to swallow this pill if the war with Hezbollah ends.
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From the Israeli military’s perspective, the war in Lebanon is approaching the purpose of diminishing returns. It has managed to weaken Hezbollah’s military position but he was unable to completely destroy this group of militants.
This also influences Hezbollah’s pondering. The group was severely weakened in Lebanon; the war weakened its military potential. In contrast to his previous position – repeated again and again over the past 12 months by the late leader Hassan Nasrallah – that a ceasefire can be possible if an agreement is reached between Hamas and Israel in Gaza first, Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran, are now willing to separate the 2 fronts. This puts Hamas in a much weaker position, as it is currently without the support of Iran’s most important proxy group – the “axis of resistance”. Drawing Hezbollah and other allied groups within the region into direct confrontation with Israel was Hamas’ hope when it launched its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Hezbollah and other political factions in Lebanon also face intense domestic pressure. Lebanon has over a million refugees as a results of the conflict – the overwhelming majority are Shiites, the branch of Islam from which Hezbollah comes. The conditions in Lebanon have increased the chance sectarian fights between Shiites and other factions within the country. The time could appear right for Hezbollah’s leaders to chop their losses and prepare to regroup as a political and military body.
Iran can be attempting to rehabilitate Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon as quickly as possible. The deal comes as Tehran is preparing for the American administration it could take a more hawkish stance toward Iran and its proxies within the region, of which Hezbollah is a very powerful. With a latest Iranian president and a latest U.S. administration, a ceasefire between Iran’s chief proxy and Israel might be step one toward Tehran constructing a constructive dialogue with the Trump White House.
What is the US role within the ceasefire?
What’s interesting to me is that despite the very clear position of the US regarding favoring Israel over the past 12 months conflict, continues to operate as an efficient mediator. It was because of the USA that a ceasefire was achieved – despite the indisputable fact that Washington is much from neutral on this conflict, being Israel’s most important ally and its most important supplier of weapons.
But the Lebanese government and Hezbollah also see a role for the United States. And this shouldn’t be latest. United States was a mediator within the landmark 2022 agreement which marked the maritime boundaries between Israel and Lebanon for the primary time.
The ceasefire agreement advantages each the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations. For President Joe Biden, it would mean a diplomatic success after a 12 months during which the US didn’t mediate any breakthrough actions within the conflict in Gaza, and for Biden it is a likelihood to finish his presidency on a positive note in foreign policy. From Trump’s perspective, a ceasefire in Lebanon will likely be one less problem for him.
What might be the results for Lebanon and Israel?
Lebanon has essentially the most at stake on this ceasefire. The the country was already in a dangerous economic situation before the war, and months of fighting only worsened the country’s structural, economic and political crisis. This is as scary as it gets.
Moreover, the war has reignited sectarian tensions in Lebanon – discuss returning to the civil war within the country shouldn’t be far-fetched.
However, it is uncertain how the ceasefire will affect the varied rival factions in Lebanese society. Hezbollah has been weakened and may now look for a method to strengthen its power in Lebanese politics. The most important query is how other factions and parties will react to this.
With Hezbollah weak, other factions may challenge the militant organization in ways they have not before. Before the decimation by Israel, there have been no rival groups that would challenge Hezbollah in Lebanon. But all that has modified: Hezbollah’s military power has degraded and Nasrallah, the group’s leader, was killed. And Nasrallah was not only the face and brains of Hezbollah, he was also the group’s most significant link with Iran.
Some experts in Lebanon express fears that the gap left by a weakened Hezbollah could mean a power struggle and further conflicts within the country. And I imagine that we must always have no illusions that Hezbollah will attempt to strengthen its position as a national power.
The matter is complicated by the indisputable fact that any change within the balance of political forces in Lebanon takes place in an environment of political vacuum. There has been an interim government for two years – without a president because Hezbollah made this nomination conditional a latest president, whose candidate will likely be an ally of the group. Now Lebanese politicians would have to agree on a latest president, who would in turn appoint a latest prime minister and a latest government. Time will tell how this may develop within the case of a weakened Hezbollah.
For Israel, the ceasefire will likely be a chance to rebuild parts of the country’s north were destroyed by Hezbollah rockets and possible return 60,000 Israelis fled northern areas near the border with Lebanon. It can even enable the Israel Defense Forces to regroup, refresh and concentrate resources in Gaza quite than fighting on two fronts.
Can a ceasefire result in a lasting peace agreement?
I don’t see any lasting peace agreement on the horizon, on condition that the basic political goals of Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have not modified and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate.
However, I hope that the ceasefire will result in peace and stability between Israel and Lebanon for the foreseeable future. The details of the ceasefire agreement will not be much different from UN Resolution 1701 that ended the last major war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. That agreement brought relative peace to the region for 18 years, whilst Hezbollah, backed by Iran, used those years to accumulate its military capabilities and prepare for a potential ground invasion of northern Israel .
In my opinion, there’s the potential for greater stability this time, on condition that the ceasefire agreement also states that if and when it becomes everlasting, it will function basis for negotiations regarding the demarcation of the Israel-Lebanon territorial border. This wouldn’t be a simple task, especially in the world of Shebaa Farms and Ghajar Village. However, with good will and good intentions, even difficult border disputes might be resolved.