As we approach the one-year anniversary of the October 7 attack on Israel, conflict in the Middle East has intensified significantly. Iran had just fired almost 200 rockets at Israel, and Israel continued to fight Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
In addition to the assassination of top Hezbollah commanders, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel has struck a whole lot of targets in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa and the outskirts of Beirut over the past few days. It also expanded the conflict to incorporate a limited land invasion of Lebanon.
Meanwhile, despite continued U.S. efforts, the possibility of certainty exists cease-fire in Gaza and the wider region seems increasingly distant.
After Iranian missile attacks a Spokesman for the US Department of State he said: “We will not give up on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza because we believe it is the best way to release the hostages.” But he later added, referring to Hamas, “you need commitment from both sides, and currently one of them is refusing to engage.”
It is increasingly likely that President Joe Biden is not going to achieve a political victory in the Middle East before the November 5 elections, as his team had clearly hoped. Some say that is partly because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes that Donald Trump will win in November and that he’ll then have the opportunity to attract the US right into a confrontation with Iran.
Ceasefire blocked
The United States appeared to be making some progress on the ceasefire July. But then got here the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran (which Israel didn’t he admitted Down).
Some argued that this was not only an try and draw Iran into the EU conflictbut a transparent blow to the possibilities of a ceasefire. The more pragmatic Haniyeh was soon replaced by a more extremist Hamas commander, Yahya Sinwar.
The United States again hoped to achieve a peace agreement in September, but Netanyahu torpedoed it with last-minute demands. These include a ban on the return of armed men to northern Gaza during a possible ceasefire and an order for Israel to take care of control of the Philadelphia Corridor, a narrow strip along Gaza’s border with Egypt.
Reports suggest that Netanyahu was deliberately undermining negotiations and profiting from delays tactics over the summer. But what’s the political purpose of delaying peace?
Netanyahu is counting on Trump winning the election and having an American partner who is simpler to control than Biden. Netanyahu boasted that he managed to persuade Trump to depart the EU Nuclear agreement with Irana historic agreement crafted by the Obama administration in 2015 to lift economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. Many saw this as a step in that direction world peace.
Trump’s controversial decision to maneuver the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem – which the Palestinians also consider their very own capital – was also a symbolic victory for Netanyahu and the Israeli right.
Arab-American voting patterns
Despite Trump’s unconditional support for Israel, many Arab Americans usually tend to vote for Trump (or at the least vote against Kamala Harris) in November.
Jewish voters in America have traditionally voted for the Democratic ticket, with roughly 70% of Jewish residents identifying as Democrats. This is significant because swing states equivalent to Pennsylvania (433,000), Florida (672,000), and Georgia (672,000) have significant Jewish communities (from 141 thousand).
Recent polls show that 72% of Jewish voters support Harris against Trump. And although 75% of American Jews said Israel was necessary to them, on an inventory of 11 issues it was only ninth most vital in shaping their vote.
The same can’t be said for Arab-American communities, which have been devastated by the conflict in Gaza (and now Lebanon) and are angered by Biden’s response to Israel. Although the US has used diplomatic pressure to agitate for a ceasefire, it has recently sold one other $20 billion (£15.08 billion) of fighter jets and other weapons to Israel. This is one in all the largest military packages since the starting of last 12 months War in Gaza.
Given an inventory of ten issues and asked to decide on the three most vital issues, 60% of Arab Americans surveyed selected Gaza, and 57% said the war in Gaza would influence their vote. This may explain why nearly 80% of Arab-American voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden (based on a poll conducted in May). Only 55% have an unfavorable opinion of them Trump.
While Arab Americans don’t necessarily like Trump, they cannot stand supporting an administration that has failed to forestall a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. They can either not vote or vote for a 3rd party candidate.
Netanyahu hopes that this issue will influence the election results in Trump’s favor. Arab Americans constitute a critical voting bloc in swing states equivalent to Pennsylvania (126,000 Arab Americans) and Michigan (392,000 Arab Americans).
It is probably going that the Jewish-American vote will remain unchanged from 2020 to 2024, but Arab Americans supported Biden nationwide, gaining 64% support in 2020, and in the key swing state of Michigan, they gave Biden almost 70% support. That could tip the scales against Harris in a state Biden won by just 154,000 votes.
Many Arab-American voters should not convinced that Harris represents a shift away from Biden – and in a poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations in Michigan in August, only 12% of Muslim American voters in the state approved Harris. These voters are demanding a ceasefire.
But we cannot see a ceasefire anytime soon. Before the October 7 attacks on Israel, Netanyahu was fighting for his own political survival. Netanyahu, who remains to be on trial on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust, has repeatedly disparaged democratic institutions and resisted public pressure to step down. After the attacks in Lebanon, Netanyahu is recovering polls in Israel. Netanyahu faces less domestic pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza and becomes more confident that aggression pays off.
In our opinion, the more aggressive Netanyahu’s government is (each in Lebanon and Gaza), the more likely Trump might be elected. This all works perfectly for Netanyahu, because it might probably allow him to look beyond Lebanon and concentrate on his best obsession: Iran.
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