Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced that “severe punishment“on Israel in retaliation for the assassination of top Hamas political leader Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran.
Haniyeh’s assassination is a critical escalation in an already unstable and increasingly hostile region. But the severity of Iran’s response to Israel will rely upon many aspects. All-out war is not certain.
Vahid Salemi/AP
A powerful but calculated response
Since Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent invasion of Gaza, Iran and Israel have exercised considerable restraint of their relations with one another, nuanced their proxy conflict.
Neither side desired to escalate tensions right into a full-scale war that would engulf all the region. Instead, they tried to point out off their muscles to avoid appearing weak while refraining from scary a serious conflict.
This was evident in April, when an apparent Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria killed senior Iranian military commanders. Iran responded with a direct drone and missile attack on Israel. The attack was apparently deliberately designed to cause no serious casualties or damage to Israel. It was also by telegraph upfrontallowing Israel and its allies to shoot down this weapon.
Iran has relied heavily on its regional allies to maintain up pressure on Israel because the war in Gaza has continued. These allies include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and their proxy militant groups in Syria and Iraq.
Israel, for its part, adopted a dual strategy: it responded forcefully to Iran’s allies and directly confronted Iran on its territory by carrying out targeted attacks.
Haniyeh’s assassination would require retaliation from Iran and its allies. Khamenei wrote on Twitter that avenging his death is Iran’s “obligation.”
However, it is unlikely that this act will reach the purpose of justifying an all-out war. Iranian foreign policy has adopted a high level of pragmatism, rigorously calculating military actions and avoiding anything that would start a costly war with economic, political and security implications.
That does not imply there won’t be a robust response. Iran’s allies, especially Hezbollah, have the power inflicting serious damage on Israel, far beyond what they’ve demonstrated thus far. Their attacks could escalate significantly.
Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA
A balancing act for Iran’s recent government
Iran also recently elected a brand new moderate government led by Masoud Pezeshkian. He has said he desires to prioritize reforming Iran’s foreign policy to create a more friendly environment within the region. This could also pave the way in which for higher relations with Western powers, including the United States.
His administration has signaled intention to revive the nuclear deal that then-US President Donald Trump tore up in 2018. Iran desires to ease international sanctions which have significantly damaged its economy and the lives of the Iranian people.
However, Haniyeh’s assassination has created a precarious situation for the Iranian government. It must balance the necessity for a decisive response with the will to implement diplomatic and economic reforms. There are two necessary features to this.
First, the attack took place in Tehran, which forced the federal government to reply decisively. Pezeshkian’s tweet after this incident you’ll be able to see this:
Iran will defend its territorial integrity and honor and make the terrorist invaders regret their cowardly motion.
Any retaliatory motion would likely increase tensions with Western countries and will hamper Pezeshkian’s diplomatic goals.
Second, radical Iranian hardliners will use this chance to criticize the brand new government, questioning its policy of reconciliation with the West. They will argue that such policies are ineffective and advocate a more confrontational stance, thereby undermining the federal government’s reformist agenda.
Israel’s Tactical Victory with Potential Flaws
Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government may even see it as a tactical victory. It continues to exhibit Israel’s ability to attack known adversaries.
Israel has confirmed that it has (or is believed to have) other Hamas leaders were eliminatedcorresponding to the deputy political leader Saleh al-ArouriDeputy Chief of Military Operations Marwan Issa and potentially the commander of the Al-Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif (although his death has not been confirmed).
This week, Israel also claimed responsibility for the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukrwithin the strike in Lebanon.
However, given Haniyeh’s importance to Hamas and the indisputable fact that the assassination took place in Tehran, the operation carries significant risks and potential drawbacks.
The killing is certain to complicate ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. It will complicate efforts to free the remaining Israeli hostages. The Israeli public already deeply dividedThe government has faced criticism for its security lapses in the course of the October 7 attack and its failure to bring hostages home.
Cracks also began to look between Israeli military leaders and the federal government regarding the war in Gaza.
In this context, Haniyeh’s assassination is unlikely to unite Israelis. Instead, it could exacerbate existing divisions, especially if it results in a bigger conflict.
What’s next for Hamas?
Haniyeh played a major role in Hamas’s leadership, facilitating strategic relationships with influential regional players, including Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. He also played a key role in mediating between different factions inside Hamas and between Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups.
This is especially necessary in light of recent agreement reached in China between 14 Palestinian factions, including Hamas and its major rival, Fatah. This deal goals to unite them in an effort to create a robust political entity that may pursue a possible peace process with Israel.
His absence will undoubtedly affect Hamas. However, this is not the primary time Hamas has lost distinguished leaders; Israel has assassinated Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin in 2004amongst others.
Despite these losses, Hamas maintained strong leadership and regional support, especially from Iran, Turkey and Qatar.
It’s still too early to inform determine who will replace Haniyehbut his successor might want to enjoy an identical level of regional connections and public support.
A likely candidate may very well be someone like Khaled Mashalwho previously held senior positions in Hamas and has significant regional influence.