The Middle East is on the brink of a potentially devastating regional war, with hostility between Israel and Hezbollah reaching extremely dangerous levels.
Washington has engaged in intense diplomacy to persuade the protagonists to withdraw from the brink. But the US efforts haven’t yielded results up to now, given the lack of sufficient influence on each side.
A grand agreement involving Israel, Hezbollah and their external supporters is now urgently needed to avoid a regional war.
Stringer/EPA
Netanyahu is hanging by a thread
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza war has emboldened Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and their supporters.
Israel’s failure to realize the war’s two primary goals—destroying Hamas and rescuing Israeli hostages—has left Netanyahu isolated and weakened. His pursuit of a scorched-earth operation in Gaza, with no plan for ending the war or managing the enclave afterward, has jeopardized his position in addition to Israel’s.
AND majority Israeli public opinion now wants him out of office. He clings to power because of narrow support from extremist elements in his cabinet and the leadership of the IDF. He is even alienated from his traditional, ultra-Orthodox Jewish supporters, who refuse military serviceand is widely distrusted in Washingtonlongtime supporter of Israel.
Israeli generals have also expressed concerns about ammunition shortages and the exhaustion of troops in Gaza. They called on him to just accept a ceasefire with Hamas in order that Israel could effectively confront Hezbollah.
But the Prime Minister remained defiant and unfaithful. accused The Biden administration is halting weapons deliveries, which could allow it to finish its campaign in Gaza early and concentrate on fighting Hezbollah.
Atef Safadi/EPA
The Power of Hezbollah
There is little doubt that Hezbollah has long been a thorn in Israel’s side.
In his address At a joint session of the US Congress on Wednesday, Netanyahu stressed that the fight against Hezbollah and its patron, Iran, is in the interests not only of Israel but additionally of America.
80,000 of our residents in northern Israel have fled their homes, effectively becoming refugees in their very own country. We are committed to their return home. We prefer to realize this diplomatically.
But let me be clear: Israel will do whatever is obligatory to revive security to our northern border and enable our residents to return safely to their homes.
Since the early Nineteen Eighties, when Hezbollah emerged as a big political and paramilitary force in Lebanon, Israel has repeatedly attempted to weaken or destroy the organization.
But Israel’s efforts, especially the 2006 military campaign, have failed. Hezbollah’s ability to survive has increased its strength, in addition to that of Iran and its other allies, including Hamas, in the region.
Hezbollah is the strongest subnational militant group in the world today. It is claimed to have 100,000 battle-hardened warriorsan enormous arsenal of weapons (including advanced missiles and drones) and a unprecedented degree of organizational strength and infrastructural support.
It is a key element of the Iranian-led, predominantly Shiite resistance axis, whose members consider martyrdom an article of faith.
The newly elected president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, who comes from the reformist faction of Iranian politics, confirmed Tehran’s unwavering support for Hezbollah in its fight against Israel inside the regional security complex.
In the event of war, Hezbollah can count on 1000’s of fighters joining it from Iran and its other proxies, in addition to Islamist fighters from outside the region. The Taliban, for instance, have already he promissed send many fighters from Afghanistan to support Hezbollah.
Although Israel, the United States and many of their allies treat Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, the Arab League I recently decided don’t label the group a terrorist organization, given its growing popularity in the Arab and Muslim world.
A terrific opportunity
Israel isn’t any longer considered the dominant force in the region. The war in Gaza and its escalating military exchanges with Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, and Iran have exposed Israel’s weaknesses.
The country should have the firepower to destroy Beirut in much the same way it did Gaza, however it would want direct U.S. involvement to emerge from the war with Hezbollah with any resilience or prosperity.
The U.S. continues to emphasise its iron-clad commitment to Israel’s security, however it would be very difficult for the U.S. to support a war in Lebanon, especially with key elections approaching. It would likely trigger Russian, Chinese, and North Korean support for Iran, and by extension, Hezbollah and other elements of the “axis of resistance.”
Under the grand deal, Israel, Hezbollah and their external backers would want to succeed in a diplomatic agreement to create mutually acceptable security buffer zones on each side of the Israel-Lebanon border.
To achieve that, Israel and Hamas must first agree on a ceasefire in Gaza and an exchange of hostages and prisoners as the basis for a long-lasting solution to the Palestinian issue. Netanyahu has up to now opposed that. He fears it might force him out of office and potentially land him in jail on bribery and fraud charges.
The history of the Middle East has repeatedly shown that armed conflicts and external interventions have never led to peace and stability. Instead, they’ve only deepened the region’s problems. The situation in the Middle East is explosive and prudence must be exercised to stop further inflammation.