Can Iran avoid a political crisis after the president’s death?

The death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash this week got here during certainly one of the most difficult times for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Raisi, a distinguished figure in the political elite, had a significant influence on Iran’s domestic policy. He also played a key role in Iran’s recent moves to enhance relations with rivals in the region.

Given his considerable influence, what’s going to his absence mean for the country’s internal affairs? And how will this affect the country’s relations in the region?

Maintaining stability in a dangerous time

Raisi’s government was very conservative and maintained close relations with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. There has been almost no conflict or disagreement between the two sides, in contrast to previous governments, most of which maintained a ways or tension from the leader.

Raisi was also considered certainly one of leading candidates for fulfillment 85-year-old Khamenei, who has been Supreme Leader for 35 years. His broad influence in the country’s conservative circles has made him a significant figure in shaping the way forward for Iran’s leadership.

However, his death, which got here a yr before the end of his second term, got here against a backdrop of national, regional and international challenges.

Iran stays below severe sanctions imposed by the United States in reference to its nuclear program, which caused significant damage to the economy and had a profound impact on people’s lives.

There was also one incident in the country most significant protest movements in its story in reference to the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in September 2022, after her arrest by morality police.

Local protests also took place in various parts of the country, mainly as a result of the economic crisis and a few of the government’s internal policies.

Moreover, the parliamentary elections that took place in March this yr were certainly one of them lowest voter turnout rates in the history of the country. As a result, calling recent elections, that are required inside 50 days of Raisi’s death, poses a significant challenge to the regime at a time when its public legitimacy is at its lowest.

Additionally, the recent escalation of the ongoing shadow war with Israel has raised serious security concerns and given rise to quite a few conspiracy theories. The rumors gained traction public opinion suggested that the president’s helicopter crash was the results of electronic warfare, a drone attack, and even an Israeli ground attack. (The state news agency IRNA reported that the reason behind the crash was a “technical failure.”)

Despite these challenges, the transfer of power is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s stability as a result of the nature of power dynamics in Iran. The Iranian political system consists of many interconnected circles led by the Supreme Leader. Losing one key player won’t cause much disruption when there are several others able to fill the void.

Vice President Mohammad Mokhber took over as acting president until recent elections are held. The conservative circle near the Supreme Leader is predicted to pick out their preferred candidate for the poll, aiming for a smooth transition with minimal challenges. Like Khamenei sent on X:

The nation needn’t worry or worry as the administration of the country is not going to be disturbed.

However, historical evaluation of leadership in the Islamic Republic suggests a recurring pattern of power shifting between conservatives and reformists, creating a sense of balance in Iranian politics and increasing the regime’s public legitimacy.

Therefore, although Raisi’s successor might be nominated and supported by conservative circles, he may present a somewhat moderate attitude. Figures that fit this description include current Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and former Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who’re moderate conservatives.

What will this mean for Iran’s neighbors?

During his term, Raisi moved the country’s foreign policy more towards the Middle East, giving it top priority. This marked a departure from his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, whose priority was to strengthen relations with European countries and normalize relations with other Western countries.

For example, during Raisi’s presidency, Iraq hosted five rounds of negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, culminating in the historic normalization of relations between each side in early 2023.

As a former strategic communications advisor to the then Prime Minister of Iraq, it became obvious to me that Iran was sincerely all in favour of establishing a strategic, long-term and solid relationship with its neighbors.

The consequence of those negotiations marked the end of Yemen’s long-running civil war, which made it easier normalization relations of Arab countries with Syria and contributed to increasing stability in Iraq.

Additionally, Iran has recently engaged in essential negotiations with Jordan and Egypt, with renewed support from Iraq. These initiatives provided a chance to resolve the sectarian conflicts which have long dominated the region and laid the foundations for higher cooperation.

Iran has also grow to be closer to China and Russia, including during Raisi’s presidency, reflecting a strategic, long-term relationship bolt towards the East, approved by the Supreme Leader. However, Iran also continued negotiations with Western powers over its nuclear program, using different tactics in comparison with Rouhani’s term.

Iran’s foreign policy appears to stay unchanged under the recent president. Vocation Ali Bagheri Kani serving as foreign minister after a helicopter crash (which also killed the current foreign minister) reinforces this continuity. Kani, who played a key role in steering nuclear negotiations under Raisi, matches into the country’s established foreign policy direction.

Moreover, Iran’s strengthening relations with its neighbors signal a more lasting move away from isolation. In the short term, this case is more likely to proceed to enhance.