“Sudan’s moment has come; “Chaos is our chance to sow the seeds of jihad.” warned Abu Hudhaifa al-Sudani, senior leader of al-Qaeda, in: October 2022 Manifesto.
His words can have seemed premature then, but in a 12 months brutal civil war has plunged Sudan into the chaos by which terrorist groups thrive. Risk Al-Qaeda is gaining ground in Sudan is now very real and, for my part, threatens not only the country itself, but additionally regional – and potentially global – security.
In April 2023 fighting broke out in Sudan between Sudanese Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, creating an influence vacuum that extremists want to fill.
At the identical time, the Rapid Support Forces are a gaggle that developed under and was once allied The former president of Sudan, who harbored al-Qaeda, Omar al-Bashir – was strengthening your grip in strategic areas similar to Darfur and southern Khartoum.
Actually, each a paramilitary group and the armed forces were accused of recruiting Islamist fighters, fueling fears that the civil war – whatever the winner – will prove to be a foothold for extremist groups.
How defense policy researcher and counterterrorism expert, I’m afraid that Sudan may turn out to be a stronghold of Al-Qaeda and a possible base for organizing attacks on the United States and its allies. The potential takeover of the Rapid Support Force in Sudan could mirror the pre-9/11 situation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban was on top of things. facilitated the rise of al-Qaeda.
Al-Qaeda members are searching possibilities to achieve what they failed to achieve within the Middle East, they’ve already achieved listening to the calls to the top to Sudan.
Decades of riots and extremism
Sudan civil unrest predates current struggles by many years. It caught fire in 1989, when al-Bashir got here to power, uniting the nation with radical Islamist ideologies. He put it on Sharia law and in 1991 protected al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Under al-Bashir, bin Laden established training camps and expanded al-Qaeda’s financial network, Laying the substructure for the terrorist attacks of September 11.
Sudan faces international sanctions for supporting terrorism expelled bin Laden in 1996
However, al-Bashir’s sponsorship of the Janjaweed militia group, the architects Genocide in Darfur in 2003, further strengthened its links with Islamic extremists. Under the microscope, al-Bashir modified its name to Janjaweed because the Rapid Support Force in 2013, appointing former Janjaweed member Mohammed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo as its leader and maintaining his brutal tactics.
The 2021 coup d’état, organized by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces and Hemeti of the Rapid Support Forces, soon turned into a coup power struggle between the 2 men, starting the present conflict in Sudan.
Today, under Hemeti’s leadership, the paramilitary group continues its oppressive campaign in West Darfur, engaging in alleged ethnic cleansing against the indigenous Masalit population.
Meanwhile, A attack on the prison in April 2023, which The Sudanese army blamed the Rapid Support Force rebelsfacilitated the escape of al-Bashir’s allies, although the previous president stays in hospital under guard.
Sudan in the guts of jihad
In the face of conflicts within the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the West may overlook the crisis in Sudan and the potential it holds for al-Qaeda, a gaggle that has long harbored ambitions to return to Sudan.
Despite his expulsion, bin Laden continued to emphasize the importance of Sudan in his plans for global jihad. You could see it in his Audio recording from 2006 AND diary entries by which he identified Sudan as a key base of operations.
2023 publication by key al-Qaeda figure Ibrahim al-Qussi entitled “Fragments of Al-Qaeda History” Revealed Bin Laden managed the investment $12 million solely for jihad in Sudan, underscoring the region’s continued importance to al-Qaeda’s goals.
Sudan’s appeal to extremists transcends its connections to bin Laden. Strategically linking North and Sub-Saharan Africa, Sudan is a key location for Islamist extremists searching for to expand their influence across the region.
After US withdrawal in 2021 from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power, Al-Qaeda has re-established a presence within the country, reopening training camps and madrasas.
However, much earlier, Al-Qaeda had long since transformed from a centralized organization in Afghanistan into a decentralized network with branches around the globe – from the Arabian Peninsula to the Indian subcontinent, to sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel.
Historic ties, recent ambitions
Recent events highlight Al-Qaeda’s increased give attention to Sudan and result from detailed findings expansion plans Sudanese al-Qaeda leader Abu Hudhaif al-Sudani. Bin Laden’s former associate notorious background in Afghanistan and Iraq, al-Sudani issued an announcement renewed connection for jihad.
Following the outbreak of civil war in Sudan, al-Sudani’s 2022 manifesto titled “Now the Fighting Has Begun: War Messages for the Mujahideen in Sudan” not only recommends military strategy targeted attacks and guerrilla activities across Sudan, but additionally a vision of jihad stretching from Dongola within the north of the country to Darfur within the south, with Khartoum because the command center.
Al-Qaeda detailed its threat in a message marking the twenty second anniversary of the 2001 attacks on the United States, promising“It is only a matter of time before the next attack eclipses the horrors of 9/11.”
This declaration together with the group escalates their presence in conflict zones similar to Niger and Libya actively positions them to attack U.S. interests around the globe. Indeed, the 12 months 2022 United Nations Report indicated that al-Qaeda was planning high-profile attacks, likely at sea.
Which would mean an extremist takeover
Al-Qaeda’s potential in resource-rich Sudan mustn’t be underestimated. Historically, the resource-constrained group’s operations in Afghanistan have been devastating; in Sudan, along with his abundance of oil, gold and fertile landtheir capabilities could possibly be significantly increased.
Sudan provides a lucrative base for the one in power. Establishing ties with each side of the civil war would undoubtedly bring enormous financial advantages to al-Qaeda if either side prevailed, in the identical way that al-Bashir ruled a generation earlier.
And Sudan’s access to the Red Sea makes it potentially a fair greater threat than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
Capturing the Sudanese stronghold could strengthen al-Qaeda affiliates in Yemen, Somalia and the Sahel region, exacerbating regional conflicts and threatening key Red Sea trade routes. Interestingly, a July 2022 United Nations report revealed it Al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch was increasing its naval capabilities.
A resurgence of al-Qaeda capabilities within the region may lead to increased piracy, militarized blockades and unregulated arms flows, escalating tensions within the region and triggering broader geopolitical unrest.
However, because the United States redirects resources and a focus to wars in Europe and the Middle East and countering China, Sudan has apparently fallen off its priority list. Further complicating matters is the undeniable fact that the U.S. response is entangled within the conflicting interests of its Gulf allies supporting different factions within the civil war in Sudan.
The United States, overwhelmed by resource constraints, overwhelmed by competing threats, and worn out by many years within the Middle East, is in a weak position to counter al-Qaeda’s expansion in Sudan.
But as Sudan moves closer to becoming a world center for terrorism, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Historical examples similar to the autumn of Afghanistan to the Taliban and the rise of the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria illustrate the potential costs.