Led by the US and Great Britain hits the Houthi rebel group in Yemen represent a dramatic latest turn in the conflict in the Middle East – one which could have ramifications across the region.
The attacks of January 11, 2024 hit roughly 60 targets in 16 locations, based on U.S. Air Forces Middle East Commandincluding Yemen’s capital Sana’a, the primary port of Hodeida and Saada, the birthplace of the Houthis in the northwest of the country.
The military motion followed weeks of US warnings to the Houthis, ordering them to stop attacking business ships in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. The Houthis are an armed militia backed by Iran that controls most of northern Yemen following a bitter conflict almost ten years of civil war – in addition they fired rockets and drones towards Israel.
as expert on Yemen politicsI imagine that U.S. attacks on the Houthis may have wide-ranging consequences – not just for the Houthis and the civil war in Yemen, but in addition for the broader region where America has key allies. In short, the Houthis stand to realize politically from these US-British attacks because they support the narrative cultivated by the group: that they’re freedom fighters fighting Western imperialism in the Muslim world.
A brand new goal for the Houthis
The conflict between Israel and Gaza has revitalized the Houthis – giving them a raison d’être at a time when their status in their very own country has declined.
By the time October 7, attack by Hamas fighters in Israel, the long conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which supports the Yemenis government overthrown by the Houthis at the starting of Yemen’s civil war in 2014, subsided after a ceasefire in April 2022 that drastically reduced fighting.
Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities had stopped and there have been hopes that a a truce could bring a few everlasting end to the brutal conflict in Yemen.
With fewer external threats domestic problems This appeared in Houthi-controlled areas – poverty, unpaid government salaries, crumbling infrastructure – have led to growing concern about Houthi rule. Public support for the Houthis has slowly declined, through no fault of the external aggressor; Houthi leaders could now not justify the difficulties in Yemen as a sacrifice required to counter foreign powers, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
But Israeli attacks in Gaza gave a brand new goal to the Houthis. Alignment with the Palestinian cause allowed the Houthis to reassert their importance and energized their fighters and leadership.
By firing rockets towards IsraelThe Houthis have portrayed themselves as a lone force on the Arabian Peninsula opposing Israel, in contrast to regional powers equivalent to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The militia presents a distinct face to Yemenis and others in the region than Arab governments, which have to date been unwilling to take decisive motion against Israel.
In particular, the Houthis contrast their worldview with that of Saudi Arabia, which before the October attack by Hamas was they wish to normalize relations with Israel.
The Houthi PR machine
There were strikes in the USA and Great Britain – say the governments of each countriesin retaliation for continued Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and following attempts to search out a diplomatic solution.
The The aim is “disrupt and degrade the capabilities of the Houthis,” says US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
UK Ministry of Defense via Getty Images
But regardless of intention or damage caused militarily to the HouthisWestern strikes may influence the group’s narrative, reinforcing the claim that it’s fighting oppressive foreign enemies attacking Yemen. And it will only strengthen the Houthi’s image amongst supporters.
The Houthis have already managed to realize domestic popular support in the part of Yemen they control, which has been behind their actions since October 2023.
Dramatic naval raids and the taking of ship crews hostage generated viral footage referencing northern Yemen’s nationalism. Rotation captured ship right into a public attraction attracted more national attention.
In the wake of the U.S.-British attacks on Houthi targets, Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said the group expand their attacks in the Red Seaclaiming that any coalition attack on Yemen would result in attacks on all ships passing through the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects to the Arabian Sea at the southern tip of the Red Sea.
Arming Palestinian sympathies
Meanwhile, the Houthis have managed to equate the Palestinian cause with their very own. Appeals at mosques in Yemen and mobile texting campaigns raised donations for the Houthis, citing Gaza’s plight.
The US-British strikes may additionally backfire for another excuse: they create back memories Western military interventions in the Muslim and Arab world.
The Houthis will undoubtedly make the most of this.
When initially US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the formation of a coalition of ten countries to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on December 18, 2023, concerns have been raised about the lack of regional representation. Among the countries of the Middle East and the Muslim world, only Bahrain is home to U.S. Naval Central Command and the U.S. fifth Fleet – He joined.
The absence of key regional powers equivalent to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Djibouti – where the US has its only military base in Africa – has raised further doubts amongst observers about the coalition’s ability to effectively counter the Houthis.
Muslim-majority countries were undoubtedly hesitant to support the coalition because of the sensitive Palestinian issue, with which the Houthis had already effectively allied themselves.
However, the lack of regional support puts the United States and its coalition allies in a difficult situation. Instead of being seen as a defender of maritime security, the United States – and not the Houthis – is in danger of being framed in the region as an aggressor and escalator.
This perception could damage the United States’ credibility in this area and potentially function a recruitment tool for such terrorist organizations Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and similar groups.
American military and diplomatic support for Israel throughout the current conflict, it also influences skepticism in the region about the true goals of missile attacks against the Houthis.
Resumption of the Civil War?
The Houthis’ renewed vigor and Western attacks on the group even have consequences for Yemen’s civil war itself.
From truce between fighting between the two primary protagonists of the conflict – Saudi Arabia and the Houthis – fighting between the Houthis and other groups in Yemen, equivalent to the Southern Transitional Council, the Yemeni Transitional Government and the National Resistance Movement, have stalled.
Each group controls different parts of Yemen and everyone seems to have come to terms with the stalemate.
However, the US-British attacks put Houthi opponents in a difficult position. They will likely be hesitant to openly support Western intervention in Yemen or blame the Houthis for supporting the Palestinians. There remains to be widespread sympathy for Gazans in Yemen, which could give the Houthis a probability to realize support in areas beyond their control.
Yemen’s transitional government issued a press release after the US-British strikes, which show the difficult situation in which the Houthi rivals find themselves. While blaming the Houthis’ “terrorist attacks” for “drawing the country into a military confrontation,” in addition they clearly reaffirmed support for the Palestinians against “brutal Israeli aggression.”
While Houthi rivals are more likely to proceed this balance, the Houthis face no such constraints – they’re free to make use of attacks to collect more support and gain a strategic advantage over local rivals.
An emboldened Houthi group may additionally be less willing to just accept the current established order in Yemen and seize the moment to push for greater control, which could potentially reignite a civil war that gave the impression to be waning.
The Houthis feed on foreign aggression to consolidate their power. Without this external conflict as justification, shortcomings in the Houthi’s political management develop into apparent, undermining their governance. During the civil war, the Houthis were capable of portray themselves as the defenders of Yemen against Saudi influence. Now they’ll add disruption from the US and UK to the mix.