Yemen attacks Houthi rebels on merchant ships in the Red Sea hit world trade. From November to December 2023, the variety of containers transported through the Red Sea every day dropped by 60% as ships carrying goods between Asia and Europe modified their routes around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.
This route works to say the least ten more days sailing time, so caused the freight prices will go up and had costly consequences production delays. This region has already develop into a bottleneck for the global economy. The Suez Canal, the waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea, was blocked for six days in 2021 after the Ever Given container ship ran aground, disrupting billions of dollars trade value.
The route through the cape was used every time the passage through Suez was disrupted. However, there may be an alternate sea passage between Asia and Europe – the so-called North Sea route.
This route, running from the Barents Sea near Russia’s border with Norway to the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska, could also be a greater option and can soon develop into available if global warming is progressing at the expected pace. Nevertheless, it currently faces many challenges.
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An alternative to global trade?
Tests estimates that summer sea ice around the Siberian coast will melt completely by 2035. Even if the ice sheet isn’t completely removed, the thickness of sea ice – one among the initial barriers to shipping in the Arctic – will change significantly reduced over the last 4 many years from 3.64 m to 1.89 m. Arctic navigation is subsequently expected to be profitable by 2010 the starting of the next decade.
For shipments between Shanghai and Rotterdam, the North Sea route reduces the distance ships can have to travel 3000 nautical miles compared to Suez i 6,200 miles compared to the Cape route. It would reduce the time needed to sail between East Asia and Northern Europe is up to 18 days (currently it takes 32 days via Suez).
Arctic navigation also takes place at very low speeds – below 18 knots (roughly 21 miles per hour). Therefore, depending on the speed of navigation and the kind of fuel used, a cargo ship transiting the North Sea route could profit from this 40% less fuel and generate up to 80% fewer emissions than if it used the Suez route.
But is it feasible?
Despite its benefits, Arctic navigation is extremely seasonal and limited to the months in between July and November. Sailing ships along the North Sea route also requires an escort behind a nuclear-powered icebreaker. But the variety of icebreakers is restricted. Just five operated on the North Sea route in 2021 to approx nine by 2030.
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There are also capability issues on the North Sea route. Trade between Asia and Europe uses so-called “mega ships” with a capability of roughly 20,000 containers. However, the North Sea route is unable to accommodate megaships due to restrictions imposed due to the depth of sea ice.
Currently only roughly ships Container capability 5000 in summer they’ll easily navigate the North Sea route.
Sensitive Arctic ecosystems
They would potentially generate cargo ships traveling along the North Sea route lower carbon dioxide emissions than ships passing through Suez. However, this alternative route presents different environmental challenges.
Arctic ecosystems take a protracted time to recuperate from disturbances comparable to oil spills. Accidents in these sensitive regions can subsequently cause unimaginable marine pollution.
For example, in 1989 Exxon Valdez The tanker ran aground in Prince William Sound, Alaska, spilling over 250,000 barrels oil into the sea. Oil spill killed billions of salmon and over 300,000 animals of assorted species of fish and birds.
More than 25 years after the spill, 4 of those species (killer whales, Kittlitz’s Murrelets, marbled murrelets AND guillemot pigeon) haven’t been encountered again in the region.
Many cargo ships also carry ballast water to maintain stability at various stages of their operation. Ballast water is taken in or discharged during a ship’s journey. This practice has the potential to result migration of invasive species to the unique Arctic ecosystem.
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The routes are changing
Despite these challenges, shipping traffic in the Arctic is increasing. In the years 2013-2017, the volume of freight traffic on the North Sea route Rose from 2.8 million tons to 10.7 million tons.
In 2023, this number increased to 36.2 million tons. And it shows no signs of slowing down. In 2024, the Russian icebreaker fleet expects to move 1747 escorts (up from 1218 in 2023).
The North Sea route currently cannot handle ship traffic or the volume of cargo transiting the Suez Canal. However, it might represent a viable alternative in the future, depending on how quickly progress is made in the fight against global warming and in developing a regulatory framework for shipping in the Arctic region.
