At the top of February 2025, senior leader Hamas and former division of his political office, Mous Abu Marzouk, said he would do it He didn’t support Hamas on October 7, 2023, attack On Israel, if he knew how destructive Israel’s response can be.
This extremely honest party now takes on re -significance, just a couple of weeks later, after the resumption of the brutal Bomb campaign of Israel. The raids from March 18 have He was already demanding lots of of Palestinian life And officially accomplished an uncertain weapon suspension agreement.
As Palestinian policy expertI imagine that a return to an energetic war in the Gaza Strip says – on the Palestinian side of the equation – to the continuing gross force Hamas’s military position imbalance VIS-A-Vis Israel and the dearth of strategic prediction of the group in not predicting the apparent readiness of Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu to return to the fight.
Asymmetrical “Peace”
It is not any secret that Netanyahu and his coalition partners showed little interest in the total implementation of the weapon suspension agreement, which was partly broker by the Messenger of Donald Trump in the Middle East, Steve Witkoff I Signed on January 19.
The contract was divided into two primary phases and then the reconstruction phase after the conflict.
Hamas in the primary round Released Israeli hostages in exchange for Release of Palestinian prisoners owned by Israel and Resumption of help to Gaza. Then the second round of negotiations was to see the discharge of all other Israel hostages in Hamas The total withdrawal of Israel’s forces from Gaza – and end to war.
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But from the very starting there have been common fears that Netanyahu wouldn’t give you the option to supply the second phase of the weapon suspension agreement – and speculation he had No personal or political intentions doing it.
The Trump administration mainly took the identical position. Statements of the US President expressing the will Take over the gauze – with an accompanying implication Palestinians living there’ll have to go away – emphasized the dearth of involvement in the second phase of the arms suspension.
Hamas was aware of these reality. But the ruling fighter apparently thought that he had just a little different option than to implement the conditions for suspension of the weapon, while holding the one source of the lever he had – the opposite Israeli hostages, he believed consists of about 59 people Perhaps lower than half of them are still alive. Indeed, this lever was related to seeing the second stage of the weapon suspension.
Of course, the part of Hamas’s interest in the arms suspension consisted in the indisputable fact that she offered the group a probability to remain in power, while providing Hamas to praise that he secured Release of hundreds of Palestinian prisons.
No strategic prediction
But despite the plain defects of Hamas throughout the suspension of weapons, it will be significant to give attention to how the group significantly underestimated several external aspects.
First of all, Hamas’ leaders looked as if it would imagine for a lot of reasons that that they had more time to barter than they did. This belief consisted partly in the understanding that Israeli public opinion polls indicate that Most of the general public are conducive to the top of the war In exchange for releasing all Israeli hostages in one package.
In addition, Adam Boehler, Trump’s envoyhad has recently opened a direct communication channel Between the USA and Hamas – something that has not happened in many years – in reference to the edition Dual USA-Israel Citizen Edan Alexander.
And on the times once they resumed the fights, Hamas and Israel officials met with us, runny nose and Egyptian, where they talked about the proposal delay the primary phase Through the top of Ramadan, while negotiations lasted on the last stage.
They were clearly aware that the suspension of the weapon was in the borrowed time. USA. Witkoff envoy in blaming Hamas For alleged fading on the extension proposal – something that Hamas denies – clearly noticed March 14: “Hamas is a really bad bet that point is on the side.
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It also seemed that Hamas calculated the political situation in Israel. Seemingly read an excessive amount of in fractures inside Israeli security establishment, including Netanyahu intention The head of the Israeli Security Agency, Ronen Bar – seeing in these events, signifies that Gaza was immune to any immediate resumption to fight amongst the inner Israeli divisions.
But removed from signaling short -term weakness, Netanyahu safety shocks simply removed separate voices.
Finally, Hamas let his limited success go to his head. Emerged from the initial suspension of weapons They present a bunch as triumphant As a struggle force that was still not defeated and could force Israel to the negotiating table. This was fully displayed through the multimedia machine inside six weeks of Israeli hostages transplants in which Hamas’ Repeated propaganda displays During the hostages of hostages, he indignant Israeli public opinion, in addition to Israeli political and security officials.
Growing gap
It is difficult to predict the situation in which matters are going. For now, Netanyahu seems too completely satisfied to return to the war on a full -scale war, which maintains completely satisfied members of the coalition, makes the brand new elections less likely and provides him with safety against the approaching penalty charges with which he would have to face once outside the office.
However, for all suffering for peculiar Palestinians that guarantee war, Hamas appears to be more drifting than ever. There is a transparent stretch marks between political leaders – based in Qatar and Turkey – who’re more interested in diplomacy and the pinnacle of the military wing in Gaza, Mohammed Sinwarwhose brother Yahya – the brain of attacks on October 7 – was killed by Israel Last autumn.
But in addition to the will for revenge on Israel and remaining the primary intermediary of power in Gaza, Hamas consistently tried to precise the achievable long -term strategy of alleviating the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. The resumption of war won’t change it.