The so-called “axis of the defenseless” is breaking in Syria. As of 2016 Russia and Iransupporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad, it took greater than a 12 months of bombings, ground attacks and sieges to interrupt rebel opposition in the eastern part of Syria’s largest city, Aleppo.
Now, in 2024, it took the rebels lower than 4 days to accomplish that liberate the city and most of Aleppo province. They also regained territory in neighboring Idlib province and moved south to northern Hama before the Assad regime established defensive lines.
Russian forces remained in their bases in the Mediterranean. Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah have been caught by rebels advancing on their positions in northwestern Syria. They abandoned them, but a minimum of not before two commanders were killed.
Since 2020, after Russia and Iran helped his forces thrust back opposition forces in much of Syria, Assad has presided over parts of the divided country in name. He and his allies controlled most of the largest cities, including Aleppo and the capital Damascus, while Turkish-backed opposition groups controlled most of northwestern Syria and U.S.-backed Kurdish factions had autonomy in the northeast.
Now Assad doesn’t even preside over his side of the division. And his Russian and Iranian enablers, overburdened and isolated throughout much of the world, are powerless to revive his paper rule.
Supporting Assad
Since the starting of the Syrian rebellion against Assad’s long-time rule in March 2011, Russia and Iran have provided political, logistical, intelligence and propaganda assistance to the Assad regime.
Iran successfully took over Assad’s army since September 2012, training tens of hundreds of militiamen to replenish depleted forces. Hezbollah sent his fighters since 2013 to rescue the Assad regime near the border with Lebanon. And Russia intervened special forces and air forces from September 2015
The success of Assad and his allies rested largely on their ability to weaken the international community. Kremlin spread destructive disinformation to cover up the regime’s deadly chemical attacks and denigrate opposition and Syrian activists White helmets civil defense.
Instead of holding the regime accountable, the Obama administration was dragged into fruitless ceasefire discussions. The EU was sidelined, the UN became powerless and Arab governments finally sat on their hands.
Perhaps the regime’s biggest triumph was portraying the collapse of the anti-Assad movement as extraordinary. Eastern Aleppo was retaken in December 2016. Daraa province, the original site of the protests, and the rest of southern Syria surrendered in 2018. An 11-month offensive recaptured Hama province and parts of Idlib before a ceasefire. mediated by Russia and Türkiyein March 2020
Vagabjorn / Shutterstock
But this image was also an illusion hiding weakness. Russian bombings and sieges had leveled and strangled much of the country, but Moscow, Iran, and Hezbollah still lacked the strength to assist the regime occupy the rest of northwestern Syria or remove the Kurds from the northeast.
“Reconstruction” was a misleading label in areas reclaimed by the regime. Long burdened by the kleptocracy of the Assad elite, the Syrian economy has lost ground greater than half GDP in 2010–2020. The Syrian pound, which was valued at 47 per US dollar in 2011, has now fallen to 13,000 per US dollar and unofficially it is much weaker. International sanctions imposed as a consequence of the regime’s mass killings and repression remain in force.
The regime, even though it could count on external help, could maintain the illusion of power. But then Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, quickly conquering Ukraine in 2022. Nearly three years later, he has devoted most of Russia’s resources to operations there, putting the country under international economic pressure.
Iran’s leaders have been tormented by mass protests over social issues, including women’s rights. The economy still teeters between inefficiency and sanctions. And targeted killings and covert operations by Israel and the US have weakened the military.
Hezbollah has been decimated by Israeli attacks over the past three months, from pager explosions to the assassinations of commanders, including key leader Hassan Nasrallah. The shaky ceasefire has not freed militants from the threat of Israeli airstrikes and ground attacks.
So when the rebels attacked last week, they didn’t encounter the vaunted axis of resistance. They saw only the fading shadow of Assad’s alleged power.
Turkey’s key role
What’s next for Assad and his supporters? The answer may now lie with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Erdoğan may not have launched the rebel offensive, sources said Abu Mohammad al-Jolanithe leader of the Islamist faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, made a call – but he is the beneficiary of its result. Turkey political and economic scope in northwest Syria, it has expanded since 2016 to incorporate the country’s largest city.
Ankara has influence on the terms of the negotiations. It could encourage and even equip the rebels to proceed, or it could call for a halt and consolidation in preparation for a gathering with the Russians and Iranians. This has already been done by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hosted his Iranian counterpart in a show of diplomacy.
But this raises further questions. Erdoğan’s primary enemy in Syria is not Assad, but the Kurdish authorities, which he sees as part of the Turkish-Kurdish insurgent group, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
So far, the Turkish-backed rebels have had no serious clashes with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). SDF and Kurdish officials did so apparently pulled out areas in Aleppo province, trench work in north-eastern Syria.
But will Türkiye accept it or as in 2019Will he proceed his attack in the northeast? According to Ankara reports initiated talks with the Assad regime over a Turkish-controlled “buffer zone” far inside the border.
This brings in the United States, which is a significant supporter of the Kurds and the SDF. For now, Washington will likely maintain this commitment. But as of January, all bets are off as Donald Trump returns to the White House.
After a phone call with Erdoğan in late 2018, Trump he tried to back out all American soldiers from Syria. The Pentagon outmaneuvered him, but one other conversation with Erdoğan in October 2019 gave the green light for a Turkish cross-border invasion.
The axis of the defenseless is breaking, but the era of uncertainty in Syria continues. Syrian residents can only hope that it is now not so deadly and destructive.