Food prices worried most voters, but Trump’s plans likely won’t lower their grocery bills

Americans are fed up with food prices, and plenty of expect President-elect Donald Trump to lower their grocery bills.

During the campaign, Trump often complained about significant price increases for bacon, cereal, crackers and other products.

“We’ll take them down,” he told shoppers during a September visit to a Pennsylvania grocery store.

But the food price inflation that caught the United States – and other parts of the world – by surprise in 2021 and 2022 had complicated causes which can be difficult to eliminate, from the pandemic to the war in Ukraine to bird flu. Many economists imagine that Trump’s plans, which include imposing tariffs on imported food and deporting undocumented employees, could actually cause food prices to rise.

Prices for food eaten at home within the U.S. rose 28% in comparison with 2019, in response to government data released Wednesday. However, growth peaked in 2022; between October 2023 and October 2024, food prices increased by 2%, which is lower than the final inflation rate.

Nevertheless, supermarket sticker shock weighed on the American electorate. About 7 in 10 voters, including 70% of girls and 63% of men, said they were very concerned about the price of food and groceries, in response to an AP VoteCast survey of greater than 120,000 voters. Only 1 in 10 said they weren’t very concerned or not concerned in any respect.

Trump won decisively amongst voters who said they were “very” concerned. About 6 in 10 voters in that group supported him, and 4 in 10 supported Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival. Harris won the overwhelming majority of voters who were somewhat concerned, not very concerned or not concerned in any respect.

Asked how he would lower grocery prices during a September town hall in Michigan, Trump said the tariffs would help American farmers. Trump has called for a 60% tariff on products made in China and a “universal” tariff of 10-20% on all other foreign goods entering the United States. In some speeches he mentioned even higher percentages.

Trump said American farmers are being “decimated” since the United States is allowing so many agricultural products into the country. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, as of 2021, the United States imported 60% of fresh fruit, 38% of fresh vegetables – excluding potatoes and mushrooms – and 10% of beef.

“We will have to behave a bit like other countries,” he said. “We won’t let that much come. We will put our farmers back to work.”

But David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, said food producers depend on imported goods corresponding to fertilizer, equipment and packaging materials. Ortega said in the event that they are forced to pay more for these products, they’ll raise prices.

He added that American farmers might also have trouble selling their goods abroad because other countries will likely respond with retaliatory tariffs. According to the USDA, roughly 20% of U.S. agricultural production is exported every year.

The American Farm Bureau didn’t reply to a request for comment from the Associated Press. The Consumer Brands Association, which represents large food firms corresponding to Coca-Cola and Nestle in addition to personal care firms corresponding to Procter & Gamble, says lots of its members need ingredients grown outside the U.S. corresponding to coffee, bananas and chocolate.

“There is a fundamental disconnect between the stated goal of lowering grocery prices and tariff policies that can only increase those costs,” said Tom Madrecki, the association’s vp of campaigns and special projects.

Ortega said Trump’s plans to deport people within the U.S. illegally could also drive up grocery prices. He said there are greater than 2 million undocumented employees working across the U.S. food chain, including about 1 million on farms, 750,000 in restaurants and 200,000 in food production.

At a town hall in Michigan, Trump said that lowering energy costs by increasing oil and gas drilling would also lower food prices.

“If you make donuts, should you make cars, whatever you do, energy is essential and we will get it. My ambition is to scale back my energy bills by 50% inside 12 months,” he said.

Energy constitutes a comparatively small a part of the prices of manufacturing and selling food. According to the USDA, for each dollar spent on food in 2022, just below 4 cents went to energy costs. Agricultural production cost 8 cents and food processing cost 14 cents.

Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow on the International Food Policy Research Institute, said energy prices are necessary but have already fallen significantly over the past yr.

“I think it would be difficult for the Trump administration to have a big impact on energy prices in the short term,” Glauber said.

Asked whether Trump has plans beyond energy and tariffs to lower grocery costs, a spokesman for his transition team didn’t provide further details.

“Americans re-elected President Trump with an awesome majority, giving him a mandate to implement the guarantees he made through the campaign. He will keep his word,” said Karoline Leavitt.

Maria Kalaitzandonakes, an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics on the University of Illinois, said her research shows that most voters imagine politicians can lower grocery prices.

Jordan Voigt, 34, a single mother of two young children, said she now lives along with her parents near Asheville, North Carolina, because gas and grocery costs have change into so high.

Voigt said she voted for Trump partially because she believes he’s a businessman who can lower prices.

“He doesn’t just say, ‘Oh, that is what it costs, Americans have to just accept it.’ I appreciate it,” Voigt said during an election night meeting. “He stands up and says, ‘No, Americans won’t pay this.’ And he said, “You’re going to have to find a way to do it cheaper.”

But Ortega and other economists say there’s little the president can do, especially within the short term, to lower grocery prices. Persistent price declines often only occur in cases of sharp and long-lasting recessions.

“People want grocery prices to drop to pre-pandemic levels, but that’s just not going to happen,” he said. “Deflation is not something we want.”

Kalaitzandonakes agrees that the White House has little power to bring down food prices quickly.

But she said presidents can encourage policies that may help tame grocery price inflation in the long term, corresponding to increasing competition and investing in infrastructure, agricultural technology and crops which can be proof against pests and extreme weather.

“Cutting food prices is not a good idea,” Kalaitzandonakes said. “Instead, we want to consider whether your income is keeping pace with your bills and whether your grocery bill is falling.”