Israel raids of October 26, 2024 – which hit about 20 military targets in Iran, Iraq and Syria – had been expected for weeks. The surgery actually took place promise of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in retaliation for an earlier missile attack by Tehran in early October.
The move also follows a pattern seen in Iran and Israel take turns raising the stakes in what has long been a “shadow war” but has now escalated into direct confrontation.
These tit-for-tat attacks have sparked widespread fears that your entire region may be entering a more escalatory phase.
While it may seem counterintuitive, I imagine that the recent Israeli attacks may have actually defused tensions. To understand why, it’s price examining the character and scale of the Israeli operation, in addition to the likely position of policymakers in Israel, Iran and the United States after the attack.
Israel’s calibrated attack
The Iran’s October air attack itself was retaliation for a series of Israeli operations against Iran’s proxy group Hezbollah. They belong to them murder of a high-rating Hamas official in Tehran on the eve of the inauguration of Iran’s latest president in July and the assassination of the Hezbollah leader in late September.
Similarly, Tehran’s earlier air attack on Israeli targets in April was in response to Israeli provocations this spring – including a strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, SyriaApril 1, wherein two senior military officers were killed.
Many observers expected or feared this Israel’s response after Iran’s October missile and drone attack be severe and punishable – Israel actually has the military potential for this.
However, reasonably than targeting key infrastructure in Iran or the country’s nuclear facilities, Israel as an alternative selected to “precise and targeted” affects the air and missile defense capabilities of the Islamic Republic.
Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images
A bit limited scope of Israeli activities suggests that the aim of the strike was to send a robust signal to Iran’s supreme leader and Iranian military commanders. In fact, Israel was signaling that it was able to striking into Iran’s heart while refraining from a full-scale attack that will have further damaged Iran’s fragile economy.
While it is going to take a while to totally assess the effectiveness of Israel’s attacks, early signs suggest that they’ve succeeded in exposing weaknesses in Iran’s overall security. These weaknesses, which may be further exploited against other more vital goals, corresponding to oil and gas production plants and even nuclear power plantsif Iran or its so-called partners “Axis of Resistance” decided to take revenge.
Iran’s cautious response
Despite the apparent success of Israeli strikes against a big selection of targets, statements by Iranian leaders suggest that the operational impact has been limited. Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement condemned attack, noting that Iran “had the right to self-defense.” But at the identical time, he added that Iran “will honor its commitments to peace and stability in the region.”
Reading these words suggests to me that Iran doesn’t intend to right away retaliate and further escalate tensions.
Of course, this may change. More news from Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khameini Or Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani could more clearly indicate whether Iran will try and retaliate and the way.
However, provided that Iran is fully aware of the impact that escalation – and the potential for more US-led sanctions and increased support for Israel – may have on its sick economymay calculate that a return to the pre-escalation established order with Israel is in its interest.
In Washington, a cautious White House
A return to a shadow war between Israel and Iran – versus an open war – would undoubtedly be welcomed in Washington.
Since the terrible Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023 the Biden administration has been caught between competing responsibilities and concerns. That includes supporting longtime ally Israel while not discouraging friendly Arab governments and attempting to avoid conflict creeping into an overall war within the region.
Meanwhile, in an election 12 months, the Democratic Party specifically is attempting to balance its support for a largely pro-Israel The Jewish voting bloc with the necessity to not offend potentially vital people Muslims vote in key statesnor A more pro-Palestinian youth vote.
The escalation of the conflict within the region doesn’t help the White House on this regard. And yet President Joe Biden several a long time of relationship with Netanyahu didn’t produce the outcomes the administration expected. Washington has failed to influence its ally to conform to a ceasefire in Gaza or to finish hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon.
And with the U.S. election approaching on November 5, increased tensions within the Middle East on various fronts could impact how voters view Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump: especially on the Michigan battlefieldwhere a Democratic ticket could lead to vote loss amongst Arab and Muslim Americans indignant over the Biden administration’s perceived pro-Israel stance.
Threading the needle?
Predicting what is going to occur next within the Middle East has eluded essentially the most experienced analysts.
It could take days, weeks and even months to evaluate whether Israel’s latest airstrike will result in an extra escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, or if there will probably be a more de-escalatory dynamic within the region.
However, there are good reasons to imagine that policymakers in Iran, Israel and the US know that further escalation is in nobody’s interest. And the ultimate salvo may have been enough to satisfy Israel while providing Tehran cover to say there was no must return fire in kind.