Hamas will achieve this start the method soon to determine who will probably be the following head of the militant Palestinian organization after the October 16, 2024 killing of former leader Yahya Sinwar – but this task won’t be easy or quick.
What makes his alternative as chairman of Hamas’ political bureau difficult is that for the reason that October 7, 2023 attack – for which Sinwar was seen because the most important architect – Israel has killed many senior political and military leaders who could replace it or at least be tasked with determining the longer term direction of Hamas.
Just two months before Sinwar’s death, his predecessor in office, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran, allegedly during an Israeli operation. Meanwhile, Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif was killed in July and Saleh Arouri, a senior Hamas official and Haniyeh’s deputy, was previously killed in a drone attack in Beirut.
as expert on Palestinian politicsI imagine that Sinwar’s death will leave a vacuum in Hamas that may likely last for many months, if not years. The query is whether or not the group will ultimately select a leader who will proceed Sinwar’s tough legacy or whether he’ll try to moderate Hamas’ approach.
Sinwar’s legacy
Sinwar’s uncompromising stance shaped not only Hamas but in addition the Palestinian cause.
Born and raised within the Gaza Khan Younis refugee camp, Sinwar joined Hamas within the early days of the organization, which was founded in 1987. he quickly rose through the ranks and he was responsible for it establishment of the Majd security agency within the military wing of Hamas responsible for detaining and executing Palestinian collaborators with Israel.
Sinwar admitted to Israeli interrogators that he killed and buried him 12 suspected of cooperation – which earned him a life sentence in an Israeli prison. He served 22 years before being released in 2011 as a part of a prisoner swap deal that also the discharge of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
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A number of years later, he reached the highest of Hamas, serving as chairman of the Hamas political bureau in Gaza from 2017. Following Haniyeh’s assassination in late July 2024, Sinwar assumed overall leadership.
Throughout, Sinwar has been a supporter of Hamas’s tough stance on Israel – an approach that has earned him respect inside the organization.
Less than a yr after taking power in Gaza, Sinwar endorsed “The Great March of Return and the Breaking of the Siege”March 2018 protests along the borders of Israel and Gaza. Demonstrations – during which Israeli troops shot dozens of Palestinian protesters – managed to galvanize international support for the Palestinian cause.
The protests might also have contributed to Israel’s decision in August this yr to allow Qatar to launch operations monthly payments within the hundreds of thousands of dollars to Hamas and Gaza in an attempt to defuse and de-escalate tensions.
Further concessions got here as Israel tried to please Sinwar and avoid further escalation of unrest in Gaza, including allowing staff from Gaza to work in Israel for the primary time since Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005.
However, Sinwar failed to persuade Israel to agree to the discharge of other Hamas members, whom he left in Israeli prisons and promised to get out. He repeatedly tried to reach an agreement regarding the bodies of two Israeli soldiers and two civiliansbut Israel was not interested. Probably the failure contributed to Hamas’ decision attack Israel on October 7, 2023
How Hamas responds to blows
The killing of Sinwar weakened Hamas, but Hamas as an idea and beliefs is more difficult to kill.
Israel knows this. In March 2004, an Israeli missile hit and killed him Founder of Hamas and spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin; a month later his successor Abdel Aziz Rantisi was also killed.
But these deaths haven’t weakened Hamas. On the contrary, the organization became more radical. Younger and more defiant leaders have taken over a company that has repeatedly fought against Israel since 2008, culminating within the October 7 attacks.
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Hamas’ response to this double blow may provide insight into the present decision-making process.
Yassin’s assassination was a chance for Hamas to revise its military tactics against Israel – which at the time consisted mainly of suicide bombings against Israeli civilians.
Ultimately, nevertheless, Hamas vowed to proceed its brutal fight against Israel.
Moderation or radicalization?
Hamas finds itself at a crossroads again. He is weakened, alienated from moderate Arab rule and increasingly unpopular amongst Gazans.
But she remained defiant throughout the last yr of the conflict. Footage of injured Sinwar, fighting until the tip and attempting to shoot down an Israeli drone with a stick only enriched his legacy, making him a legend to many supporters.
The latest leadership could have to make a choice from continuing the radicalization represented by Sinwar or selecting moderation.
But Israel doesn’t make the latter option any easier.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s only offer to Hamas is complete give up – left no face-saving option for the group.
It subsequently seems likely that Hamas will determine to proceed the fight.
Therefore, one among the almost certainly candidates for the leadership of Hamas after Sinwar is Khalil al-HayyaPalestinian politician who has been vice-chairman of the Hamas political bureau since August 2024.
Al-Hayya is understood for his hawkish approach to the concept of reconciliation between Hamas and the rival Palestinian group Fatah and his hawkish statements about Israel. After Sinwar’s death he promised to proceed the fight Israel, a sign that the spirit of Sinwar will proceed to guide the Palestinian resistance within the years to come.
His most important contender for the leadership role is Khaled Mashalwho was chairman of Hamas’s political bureau from 1996 to 2017 and currently serves as its chairman in exile.
Mashaal, who has a large network of regional and international allies, is taken into account a more moderate option. He was responsible for drafting 2017 Hamas Manifesto – seen as a departure from the sooner, more radical i blatantly anti-Semitic card from 1988.
Collective Leadership: Room for Maneuver?
However, a right away decision on who will take the leadership role mustn’t be expected. Hamas seems more willing collective leadership until the scheduled elections in March 2025, conditions permitting.
In the meantime, a five-member commission formed in August after Haniya’s murder will take over decision-making. The committee is tasked with “guiding the movement in times of war and exceptional circumstances, as well as its plans for the future”, and the brand new committee is empowered to “make strategic decisions”. according to Hamas sources who spoke to Agence France-Presse reporters.
This type of collective leadership would seemingly indicate that Hamas currently doesn’t see any single person as able to filling the vacuum left by Sinwar.
It would also give Hamas potentially greater room for maneuver in negotiations with Israel and regional actors, as some commission members are seen as acceptable faces for moderate Arab governments.
Collective leadership also provides Hamas with a survival mechanism, making it difficult for Israel to achieve the success it has to date achieved in assassinations of those named as Hamas “leaders.”
There is little doubt that Israel weakened Hamas with this strategy – especially the killing of Sinwar. And while the assassination of leading Hamas figures doesn’t mean a “total victory” over the group, as Israel wantsthe truth is, it makes it way more difficult for Hamas to select its next leader.