When Iran fired greater than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel this week in retaliation for the Israeli killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, some were surprised by Tehran’s decisive response.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately announced his country would retaliate brutally at a moment of its selecting. When his security cabinet met for a nightly meeting, he said: “Whoever attacks us, we will attack him.”
The Biden administration stands firm convicted Iran’s aggression and repeated his own commitment to defend Israel. The White House said Iran would face “serious consequences” regardless that President Joe Biden he called for refraining from attacks regarding Iran’s nuclear facilities.
So what might Israeli retaliation appear like, and is a full-scale war between Iran and Israel, or maybe even the United States, likely at this point?
The regional war is already underway
Regional war isn’t any longer inevitable – it has already arrived. The conflict that began in Gaza almost a 12 months ago has spread across the Middle East, with Israel fighting countries and groups removed from its borders. This also has global consequences.
As this week’s Iran strike shows, the conflict has turn out to be a direct confrontation between Israel and its Western allies, on the one hand, and Iran and its proxies, backed by Russia and China, on the other.
Washington played a key role in supply Israel has military aid and diplomatic cover, while Moscow does he promised send fighter jets and air defense technology to Iran. It also buys Iranian weapons for its own war in Ukraine, supplying them to Tehran much needed money.
Moreover, Israel is currently engaged on many fronts.
First, the war continues in Gaza, where over 40,000 Palestinians have died. Hamas has been reduced to a poorly functioning guerrilla organization, but still retains some control over the displaced Palestinian population.
In West BankThe Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducts military operations counteract growth in terrorist attacks, driven by Iranian weapons and funds directed to local fighters.
Meanwhile, Iran’s other proxy groups, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and Houthis rebels in Yemen proceed to launch rocket and drone attacks on Israel. Both Israel and the US have done this he hit back with the Houthis in Yemen.
However, the most significant battle is going down in Lebanon. On October 8, 2023, the day after the Hamas rampage in southern Israel that left 1,200 people dead and over 200 Israelis abducted to Gaza, Hezbollah began firing rockets and other weapons at Israel without provocation, in solidarity with Hamas. This forced greater than 60,000 Israelis near the border to flee their homes.
Atef Safadi/EPA
Two weeks ago, Israel took a decisive step. Netanyahu reportedly ordered the detonation of hundreds of booby traps pagers and walkie-talkies utilized by Hezbollah out of fear that the operation was ongoing risk of exposure.
The IDF then conducted an enormous air campaign geared toward reducing Hezbollah’s estimates arsenal rockets, rockets and drones.
Then the ground one fired invasion to Lebanon, targeting positions fortified by Radwan Hezbollah’s elite forces. The goal is to prevent Hezbollah from invading northern Israel and repeating the October 7 Hamas atrocities there.
Up to 1,000,000 Lebanese were forced to do this they run away from their homes consequently of Israeli actions.
Abbas Salman/EPA
Israel’s Counterattack Options
And now Iran has turn out to be directly involved in the fight against its own countries launching ballistic missiles into Israel this week, allegedly targeting military bases. advanced Israeli missile defense systems, assisted by the US, Jordan and other countries, intercepted most of the missiles. Several landed in Israel with shrapnel killing one Palestinian in the West Bank.
It was Iran’s second direct attack on Israel in recent months. First resulted in limited Israel retaliation regarding the Iranian air defense system allegedly protecting the nuclear facility in Isfahan.
The full scope and consequences of Israel’s retaliation this time remain unknown at the time of writing.
One scenario that deeply worries Tehran is that Israel, in concert with the US, could goal its critical infrastructure. This may include communication and transport networks, financial institutions and the oil industry (particularly enterprise facilities). financing mechanism from the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). This could create chaos in Iran, threatening the survival of the regime.
Although forcing regime change in Tehran could be extremely difficult, Iranian leaders will not be taking any probabilities. Apparently that is what happened willing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to a secure location to prevent any assassination attempts.
Iran’s rapidly expanding nuclear program stays the crown jewel of the Iranian regime, which the United States and its allies say serves as a front for its chasing atomic bombs.
Iranian leaders may now fear that Israel and the United States could seize the opportunity to seriously destroy their nuclear infrastructure, as some have long called for conservative voices in Both countries. But Biden does calling as an alternative for a “proportionate” response.
Destroying Iran’s air defense systems can be considered an option to signal to the regime that it can turn out to be “blindsided” in the event of any future attack on Israel. Other possibilities are also on the table.
Vahid Salemi/AP
Narrow window for Israel
In an attempt to ease tensions, Iranian officials rushed decided the desire to end hostilities after a missile attack.
However, the conflict has come full circle. Hamas believed that Israel would fall after the attack on October 7, 2023. However, Israel as an alternative responded with a devastating war in the Gaza Strip, eliminating most of Hamas’ capabilities but additionally causing widespread casualties and destruction.
Similarly, Hezbollah and Iran’s decisions to strike against Israel proved to be grave miscalculations, underestimating Israel’s determination to retaliate with overwhelming consequences.
The ball is now in Israel’s court. While any retaliation must have in mind the incontrovertible fact that the IDF is already stretched across multiple fronts, Iran’s “axis of resistance” has also never seemed more vulnerable.
Israel has a narrow window to deal a serious blow to it – and Netanyahu is unlikely to miss this moment.