Over the summer, as Israel continued its bombardment of Gaza, representatives of 14 Palestinian factions, including the 2 most important parties, Hamas and Fatah, met in China. After probably the most inclusive talks in years, all sides agreed to a future unity government and to hold national elections.
This talk of governing “the day after” could seem fanciful as the present war celebrates its one-year anniversary. The idea of holding elections in Palestine seems far-fetched, considering current destruction and humanitarian crisisespecially within the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, every democratic process, including Hamas – whose leadership Israeli forces spent a year trying to eliminate after the group’s attack on October 7, 2023 – could be met with fierce opposition from Israel. It should come as no surprise, then, that 72% of Palestinians recently surveyed said yes he saw no hope the provisions agreed in China will probably be implemented soon.
However, the choice “day after” reconstruction plan for Gaza pushed by the United States – “revitalizing” The Palestinian Authority, the Fatah-led body that partially administers parts of the West Bank, also appears to be off the mark. Critics of the plan warn that simply reshuffling existing data will further delegitimize a deeply unpopular government.
as researcher of Palestinian history and politicsI see that talking about reforming existing bodies or supporting a unity government composed of the identical entities misses a more vital issue: the Palestinians are increasingly frustrated by their political representation; they want to find a way to select their own leaders.
Research showed this even before the October 7 attack The Palestinians were dissatisfied when it got here to management, they perceived it as corrupt and dysfunctional. And because the war drags on for a second year, the most recent polls show that support for Hamas has declined moderately; nevertheless, support for its most important rival, Fatah, increased only barely. More than one third of respondents don’t support either side.
Divided leadership
Despite talk of a unity government, Palestinian leaders remain as bitterly divided as they’ve been for many years.
After a short conflict in 2007, the Palestinian Authority split in two. The secular Fatah party, led by Mahmoud Abbas, controlled power within the West Bank while its Islamist rival, Hamas, ruled in Gaza.
Since then, Palestinian representatives have held out a dozen or so reconciliation talks try to bridge divisions, the last one happening in Beijing in July 2024. While several of these meetings have resulted in joint agreements, reminiscent of the recent “Beijing Declaration”, none have led to closer cooperation amongst the varied factions.
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The current president of the Palestinian Authority, 88-year-old Abbas, is especially unpopular. He was first elected in 2005 to a 4-year term, unilaterally prolonged his term of office in 2009, declaring that he would remain on this position until the subsequent elections. But he’s prevented the elections from happening to be held from then on. Summarizing the views of many, analyst Khaled Elgindy described today’s Abbas as “an erratic and petty authoritarian leader with a virtually unbroken record of failure.”
This helps explain why, according to A September 2024 Poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Political and Polling Research shows that 84% of Palestinians within the West Bank and Gaza Strip want Abbas to resign.
When asked about a hypothetical presidential election between the leaders of Hamas and Fatah, 45% of Palestinians reported this they might reasonably just wait out the elections. The query had to be hypothetical – elections are usually not even on the horizon. In fact, Palestinians within the West Bank and Gaza haven’t voted in presidential or legislative elections since 2006. Three quarters of Palestinians can see there is no such thing as a probability of organizing elections within the near future.
No decisions
In recent years, there has been growing pessimism amongst Palestinians about democratic influence on governance. A year of ruthless Israeli bombing and internal political dysfunction has undoubtedly weakened it even further.
A glimmer of hope for greater democratic representation got here in January 2021, when Abbas announced that elections to legislative bodies could be held later that year.
Many on then lists of candidates they were third and independent parties. Half of the young Palestinians were particularly excited all those entitled to vote they might be between the ages of 18 and 33, and this might be their first probability to elect leaders who could claim to speak on their behalf.
However, lower than a month before election day Abbas postponed countless voting. While he blamed Israel for the postponement, other Palestinians also pointed to disruptions from Egypt and Jordan.
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With no elections in sight, Palestinians have launched several grassroots initiatives to try to implement democratic reforms from the bottom up.
For example, in November 2022 Palestinian People’s Conference took place in several cities. He called for reforming Palestinian institutions to make them more democratically representative of the 14 million Palestinians living all over the world. Meetings were held in Gaza and Haifa, with Palestinians from all over the world joining in person and virtually.
But Palestinian Authority forces within the West Bank brutally smashed on the gathering in Ramallah i detained several conference leaders. The severe crackdown signaled to many that Abbas and the Palestinian Authority feared the emergence of another, democratically elected Palestinian leadership.
Maintaining the occupation
Many Palestinians see Abbas and his government as “puppet authority”, supported by Israel and the United States.
Despite its name, this body doesn’t have the “power” that governments typically have. It cannot collect its own taxes, control its own borders, or protect its residents. More like Israel collects taxes within the West Bank and decides when – and whether – to hand them over to the Palestinian Authority. Israel must authorize what enters and exits the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
And, as has been obvious throughout the present war, the Israeli military is actually free to accomplish that attack “area A”parts of the West Bank to be under full security control of the Palestinian Authority.
However, Palestinians within the West Bank are usually not even able to express their opposition to these measures. In recent years, the Palestinian Authority has change into increasingly repressive, arresting increasing numbers of Palestinians political foundations.
Moreover, inside a year of the October 7 attacks, the Palestinian Authority allowed Israel to accomplish that arrest and detain over 7,000 Palestinians within the West Bank. Many of them are detained for months for free of charge or trial and subjected to torture widespread torture and sexual abuseaccording to Israeli human rights group B’Tselem.
As such, many Palestinians view the Palestinian Authority as little greater than “subcontractorIsraeli occupation.
Looking to the longer term
So what does the “day after” the conflict appear to be for Palestinians and their hopes for democratic political representation?
The recent ruling by the International Court of Justice stating that Israel the occupation is prohibited and the very fact that settlers must withdraw from the West Bank has added further legitimacy to the Palestinian demand to end the occupation once and for all.
But the longer term Palestinian government will only be credible if it represents the need of the people.
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Certainly, holding elections in Palestine to achieve this goal could be difficult, given the continued Israeli occupation and widespread destruction in Gaza. But that’s clear elections are what the Palestinians want. When was the last time the 2021 elections were advertised? 93.3% of those entitled to vote registered – only to have their hopes dashed later.
On reconciliation talks in Beijing, all 14 Palestinian parties agreed “to prepare as soon as possible to hold general elections under the supervision of the Palestinian Central Electoral Commission.”
While Israel, the US and regional actors worry about these decisions could legitimize Hamas’ rule within the Gaza Strip, which might not necessarily be the case. The latest polls only show this 36% of respondents in Gaza said they preferred this end result.
Many Palestinians for now consider in step one there must be the creation of a government of national reconciliation that will find a way to negotiate reconstruction.
However, to have any probability of success, such a body would have to be led by Palestinians. A government consisting of the usual actors imposed on the Palestinians by the US and Israel would suffer from crippling legitimacy problems.
One thing is definite: the death and destruction of the past year have shown that the old approach to Palestinian policy has failed. Perhaps it’s time for a latest approach, bringing together the Palestinian national team.