The rapid pace of events between Israel and the Palestinians, and in the wider Middle East, could make people think that change is inevitable.
Political scientists like me, I sometimes witness significant and groundbreaking events, comparable to the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and its aftermath, as aspects causing increased insecurity amongst the potential to drive wider change.
But not much has modified since this year.
Relatively stable established order on October 6
Throughout the first a part of 2023, relations between Israel and the Palestinians and the wider region appeared generally stable. In September 2023, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan declared that the Middle East “isquieter than it has been for 20 years”
Palestinians widely believed that their representatives – the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip – they were corrupt and he deserved it little or no public trust. At the same time, Palestinian factionalism and division between the West Bank and Gaza he was unbeatable.
Israeli society has endured nine months of widespread demonstrations against the government’s conservative reforms, including proposed limits on judicial power. In fact, elements of Israeli democracy, including its laws and liberal values, were has been weakening for a few years.
Israel’s relations with the Palestinians were stable if tense. Israel exercised military control over Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank.
Israel’s approach to managing the conflict with the Palestinians has been based on surveillance technology and intelligence gathering to make sure the security of its borders with the Gaza Strip. Periodic military operations were believed to discourage Hamas from open violence. Similarly, economic incentives comparable to thousands and thousands of dollars in money transferred to Hamas through Qatar and work permits for Gazans to enter Israel.
The Israeli government’s approach was this whose goal was to sever ties between Gaza and the West Bankso as to weaken the Palestinian Authority. The ultimate goal was to stop political negotiations around the prospect from re-emerging Palestinian statehood.
In the US, the Biden administration did this has focused its attention abroad totally on China. The attention she paid to the Middle East was largely involved defense pact with Saudi Arabia this may include restoring diplomatic relations between the Saudis and Israel, with little or no attention to the Palestinian issue.
Other key Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, also found it convenient to focus less on the Palestinian issue. Their national security goals countering Iran’s growing power equated with Israeli ones.
Iran was also all in favour of maintaining the established order. This has been pursued restore ties with various Arab governments and obtain some easing of economic sanctions. Some relief got here inside Prisoner exchange in August 2023 from the USA
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar / Leaflet / Anadolu via Getty Images
The prospect of change
Experts and analysts have identified the October 7 attack and subsequent Israeli bombing campaign and subsequent ground invasion of Gaza as creating a likelihood for change.
A consensus emerged amongst observers that the Hamas attack made this clear Palestinian demands for self-determination they weren’t going to vanish quietly.
Action suggestions included resumption of political negotiations for a Palestinian state, reforming the Palestinian Authority to revive its legitimacy, and engaging neighboring countries to secure and rebuild Gaza in exchange for improved diplomatic relations with Israel.
Calls for change have come from across the world community, with public demonstrations around the world. International legal institutions called for peace and tranquility: The International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court launched an investigation into the actions of each Hamas and Israel.
A little change a year later
A year later, not much of what people imagined had happened.
The Palestinian Authority is focused by itself survival amid growing instability in the West Bankincluding violence by Israeli settlers, Israeli military operations, and resistance by Palestinian militants.
The humanitarian conditions in Gaza are dire, including: acute level of hunger, water shortages and poor sanitation. Some fighting continues Hamas is attempting to regroup where possible.
In Israel, as the war against Hamas continued, so too did Israel’s means of apostasy from democracy, marked by restrictions on freedom of speech and increasingly widespread nationalist hawkish sentiment. Despite continuing protests and calls for his resignation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pro-war coalition will survive and will likely survive until the scheduled elections in October 2026.
The statements and actions of the Israeli ruling coalition indicate that it intends to avoid resolving the conflict until the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and expanding security buffer zones under Israeli military control Lebanon AND Gauze.
The United States has been very energetic, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken visiting the region nine times President Joe Biden officially begins negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage deal in the short term and for regional negotiations in the long run. After one ceasefire and release of over 100 hostagesnone of those efforts resulted in an extra cessation of the war or the release of the hostages.
As the fall elections approach, it is unclear which U.S. efforts will proceed. Majority of the American public – 62% – wants the United States to play little or no rolein resolving the Israel-Hamas war.
Broader interests prevail
Other Middle Eastern countries publicly support and often take part in U.S.-led negotiations, but all are careful to take care of their very own interests.
For example, Egypt and Jordan are concerned about the so-called the potential for more Palestinians to flee the fighting and come to their territories. The Saudis and the United Arab Emirates fear that the conflict may spill over to other countries.
Iran’s position has strengthened barely, with increasing power and attention on their proxiesincluding Hamas, Hezbollah, the Assad regime in Syria, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Until the missile attacks on Israel on October 1, 2024, Iran had consistently signaled that its fundamental interest was to avoid a regional war. Its recent president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has repeatedly spoken about his desire constructive dialogue with the West.
Overall, despite almost a year of fighting and lack of life, there is more continuity than change. International courts take their time and have limited powers. Israel’s democratic apostasy, its 57 years of career Palestinian territories, Palestinian fragmentation and weak governance, in addition to the lack of real commitment from nearby countries and the United States – in addition to the absence of any stable or peaceful solution.